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This paper aims to expand knowledge on the effects of an international migration on parent–adult child relationships. We develop a typology, include non-migrants in the country of origin for comparison, and consider transnational families. Analyses are based on the Turkish 2000 Families Study, using information of adult non-co-resident children about their relationships with their parents. The research questions are: Do intergenerational solidarity types in migrant families reflect the patterns prevalent in the origin context or migration-specific adjustments? Do solidarity types of migrants differ, depending on whether they are transnational, of first- or second-generation children? Are differences due to composition effects? Latent class analysis shows four solidarity types. Their prevalence differs remarkably across the migrant groups. The proportion of the full-solidarity type is larger and that of the autonomous type is smaller in the relationships of first- and second-generation children with their migrant parents than among stayer dyads in Turkey. In transnational relationships, there is less full solidarity, and autonomous relationships are more likely. All migrant groups display less advice-oriented and more material-oriented support relationships. These results indicate stronger intergenerational cohesion in non-transnational migrant families and few changes across migrant generations. The observed differences are not due to composition effects.

Motherhood negatively affects female employment in majority populations across Europe. Although employment levels are particularly low among women of migrant origin, little is known about the motherhood–employment link in migrant populations. This paper investigates whether family formation differentially affects the labour market position of migrant women and their descendants compared to natives. Using longitudinal microdata from the Belgian social security registers, 12,167 women are followed from 12 months before until 48 months after the birth of their first child for the period 1999–2010. Levels of activity (versus inactivity), employment (versus unemployment) and full-time employment (versus part-time employment) are compared between natives and first- and second-generation women of Southern European, Eastern European, Turkish and Moroccan origin. We find that activity and employment levels decrease to a larger extent following the transition to parenthood among women of migrant origin than among natives. With respect to activity levels, differences between second-generation women and natives are largely explained by socio-demographic and pre-birth job characteristics, while differences between first-generation women and natives are not, suggesting that other factors such as tied migration patterns determine labour market attachment among first-generation mothers. With respect to employment levels, unemployment is increasing more among women of migrant origin of both generations than among natives, also when controlling for background characteristics, which signals differential access to stable job positions as well as to family policies. In sum, the results draw attention to the challenge that parenthood creates for mothers of migrant origin in terms of retaining and gaining employment, but also to the role of labour market entry and early career positions. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10680-017-9431-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

This research examined the judgemental process underlying subjective life expectancy (SLE) and the predictive value of SLE on actual mortality in older adults in the Netherlands. We integrated theoretical insights from life satisfaction research with existing models of SLE. Our model differentiates between bottom-up (objective data of any type) and top-down factors (psychological variables). The study used data from the first wave of the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute Work and Retirement Panel. This is a prospective cohort study among Dutch older workers. The analytical sample included 2278 individuals, assessed at age 50-64 in 2001, with vital statistics tracked through 2011. We used a linear regression model to estimate the impact of bottom-up and top-down factors on SLE. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to determine the impact of SLE on the timing of mortality, crude and adjusted for actuarial correlates of general life expectancy, family history, health and trait-like dispositions. Results reveal that psychological variables play a role in the formation of SLE. Further, the results indicate that SLE predicts actual mortality, crude and adjusted for socio-demographic, biomedical and psychological confounders. Education has an additional effect on mortality. Those with higher educational attainment were less likely to die within the follow-up period. This SES gradient in mortality was not captured in SLE. The findings indicate that SLE is an independent predictor of mortality in a pre-retirement cohort in the Netherlands. SLE does not fully capture educational differences in mortality. Particularly, higher-educated individuals underestimate their life expectancy.

Large differences in mortality rates across those with different levels of education are a well-established fact. Cognitive ability may be affected by education so that it becomes a mediating factor in the causal chain. In this paper, we estimate the impact of education on mortality using inverse-probability-weighted (IPW) estimators. We develop an IPW estimator to analyse the mediating effect in the context of survival models. Our estimates are based on administrative data, on men born between 1944 and 1947 who were examined for military service in the Netherlands between 1961 and 1965, linked to national death records. For these men, we distinguish four education levels and we make pairwise comparisons. The results show that levels of education have hardly any impact on the mortality rate. Using the mediation method, we only find a significant effect of education on mortality running through cognitive ability, for the lowest education group that amounts to a 15% reduction in the mortality rate. For the highest education group, we find a significant effect of education on mortality through other pathways of 12%.

First published: 30 January 2018. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. This is the first study to systematically analyze whether the association between parental education and family dissolution varies cross-nationally and over time. The authors use meta-analytic tools to study cross-national variation between 17 countries with data from the Generations and Gender Study and Harmonized Histories. The association shows considerable cross-national variation, but is positive in most countries. The association between parental education and family dissolution has become less positive or even negative in six countries. The findings show that the association between parental education and family dissolution is generally positive or nil, even if the association between own education and family dissolution is in many countries increasingly negative. The authors find suggestive evidence that the association is related to the crude divorce rate, but not to the generosity of the welfare state in these countries. The implications of these findings for understanding the stratification in family dissolution are discussed. Funded by European Research Council. Grant Number: 324178; Suomen Akatemia (Strategic Research Council of the Academy of Finland). Grant Number: 293103

BACKGROUNDAlthough a growing body of migration literature has focused on the determinants of migrants' plans to return to the home country, the role major life events play in return migration intention - including transitions and turning points, key concepts of the life course approach - has barely been examined.OBJECTIVEWe address the following research question: What are the effects of family, work, and health events on the return intentions of first- and second-generation Turks living in Germany?METHODSWe answer this research question using longitudinal data of first- and second-generation Turkish migrants who participated in the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) study between 1984 and 2012.RESULTSThe results for first-generation Turkish migrants show that entering the empty-nest stage, becoming unemployed, and becoming employed in Germany increase the likelihood of intending to return, while partnership dissolution and childbirth act as a deterrent. Partnership formation, entering retirement, and health deterioration neither trigger nor deter the intention to return. For the second generation, becoming unemployed increases the intention to return, while partnership formation has the opposite effect. Partnership dissolution, childbirth, becoming employed in Germany, and health deterioration have no impact on the likelihood of intending to return.CONCLUSIONSOur study shows that a number of key life events are important triggers of international relocation, although differences emerge when comparing first- and second-generation migrants. Further research could reveal whether these results are specific to the Turkish community.CONTRIBUTIONThe paper proposes several ways in which the life course approach could be developed in return migration research. It is also one of the first attempts to quantitatively assess the role of crucial life events in the family, work, and health domains in the return decision-making process of non-Western first- and second-generation migrants.

Previous research has demonstrated that parental socio-economic status (SES) is an important determinant of the timing of entry into a first co-residential union. Whilst the majority of existing studies found that young adults from high-SES families delay their first union compared with those from lower-SES backgrounds, all these studies were conducted within a single country. This study examines the link between parental SES and the timing and type of first union for 25 European countries participating in the European Social Survey Round 3 (2006/2007). Results from two-step meta-analytical models indicate that in almost all countries young adults from advantaged backgrounds delay their entry into a first union. This delaying effect of parental SES is stronger if young adults marry directly than if they enter their first union via unmarried cohabitation. The impact of parental SES is only partly mediated by an individual's own education. The strength of the link between parental SES and union formation varies between countries: the delaying impact of parental SES is weakest in those Northern and Western European countries that are most advanced in the Second Demographic Transition. However, after controlling for individual education, the cross-national variation in the link between parental SES and union formation disappears.

A negative educational gradient has been found for many causes of death. This association may be partly explained by confounding factors that affect both educational attainment and mortality. We correct the cause-specific educational gradient for observed individual background and unobserved family factors using an innovative method based on months lost due to a specific cause of death re-weighted by the probability of attaining a higher educational level. We use data on men with brothers from the Swedish Military Conscription Registry (1951-1983), linked to administrative registers. This dataset of some 700,000 men allows us to distinguish between five education levels and many causes of death. The empirical results reveal that raising the educational level from primary to tertiary would result in an additional 20 months of survival between ages 18 and 63. This improvement in mortality is mainly attributable to fewer deaths from external causes. The highly educated gain more than nine months due to the reduction in deaths from external causes, but gain only two months due to the reduction in cancer mortality and four months due to the reduction in cardiovascular mortality. Ignoring confounding would lead to an underestimation of the gains by educational attainment, especially for the less educated. Our results imply that if the education distribution of 50,000 Swedish men from the 1951 cohort were replaced with that of the corresponding 1983 cohort, 22% of the person-years that were lost to death between ages 18 and 63 would have been saved for this cohort. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Higher education is one of the social fields where inequalities are produced and reproduced. Nevertheless, we still know very little about the ways in which heterogeneities and inequalities have been experienced and interpreted by those involved in international academic mobility. In this introductory editorial, we consider some of the crucial conceptual issues involved in the study of the nexus between inequalities and international academic mobility. First, we argue that it is important to take manifold inequalities into account when examining this nexus. After all, inequalities can be detected at different levels, and the mobility process is structured around multiple heterogeneities rather than by a single one. Second, we discuss how international academic mobility and inequalities attached to it go beyond nation-state borders. Third, we argue it is beneficial to extend the scope of to the mobility process as a whole, as inequalities in opportunities and outcomes are intrinsically connected.

Despite there being several estimates for famine-related deaths in the west of The Netherlands during the last stage of World War II, no such information exists for war-related excess mortality among the civilian population from other areas of the country. Previously unavailable data files from Statistics Netherlands allow researchers to estimate the number of war-related excess deaths during the last stage of the war in the whole country. This study uses a seasonal-adjusted mortality model combined with a difference-in-difference approach to estimate the number of excess deaths in the period between January 1944 and July 1945 at a total of close to 91,000 (75%) excess deaths. Almost half of all war-related excess mortality during the last year of the war occurred outside the west.

Many methods have been proposed to solve the age-period-cohort (APC) linear identification problem, but most are not theoretically informed and may lead to biased estimators of APC effects. One exception is the mechanism-based approach recently proposed and based on Pearl’s front-door criterion; this approach ensures consistent APC effect estimators in the presence of a complete set of intermediate variables between one of age, period, cohort, and the outcome of interest, as long as the assumed parametric models for all the relevant causal pathways are correct. Through a simulation study mimicking APC data on cardiovascular mortality, we demonstrate possible pitfalls that users of the mechanism-based approach may encounter under realistic conditions: namely, when (1) the set of available intermediate variables is incomplete, (2) intermediate variables are affected by two or more of the APC variables (while this feature is not acknowledged in the analysis), and (3) unaccounted confounding is present between intermediate variables and the outcome. Furthermore, we show how the mechanism-based approach can be extended beyond the originally proposed linear and probit regression models to incorporate all generalized linear models, as well as nonlinearities in the predictors, using Monte Carlo simulation. Based on the observed biases resulting from departures from underlying assumptions, we formulate guidelines for the application of the mechanism-based approach (extended or not). Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13524-017-0562-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Individuals' decision processes play a central role in understanding modern migration phenomena and other demographic processes. Their integration into agent-based computational demography depends largely on suitable support by a modelling language. We are developing the Modelling Language for Linked Lives (ML3) to describe the diverse decision processes of linked lives succinctly in continuous time. The context of individuals is modelled by networks the individual is part of, such as family ties and other social networks. Central concepts, such as behaviour conditional on agent attributes, age-dependent behaviour, and stochastic waiting times, are tightly integrated in the language. Thereby, alternative decisions are modelled by concurrent processes that compete by stochastic race. Using a migration model, we demonstrate how this allows for compact description of complex decisions, here based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We describe the challenges for the simulation algorithm posed by stochastic race between multiple concurrent complex decisions.

Background: Research on the fertility behavior of descendants of immigrants has focused on female characteristics and has largely neglected those of the male partner. One key aspect is whether the partner is of same (endogamous) or of different (exogamous) ethnic origin. Moreover, the male partner may be born in the same country as the female partner, or he may have migrated to that country later in the life course. Consequently, both his ethnic origin and migration history may affect the fertility behavior of second-generation women. Objective: This study analyzes to what extent second and higher order births of second-generation women of Southern European, Turkish, or Moroccan origin in Belgium differ by the ethnic origin and migration history of the male partner. Methods: We apply event history methods using the 2001 Belgian Census, linked with the 2006 Belgian National Population Register. Results: Women of Turkish and Moroccan origin in an endogamous union experience higher second and subsequent birth rates than their counterparts in an exogamous union. However, no variation is found within the endogamous unions: Whether or not the endogamous partner has been born in the country of origin does not seem to affect second and higher order birth rates. For women of Southern European origin, second and higher order birth rates do not differ by origin and generation of their partner. Contribution: This study extends the literature on the fertility behavior of the descendants of immigrants by demonstrating the importance of male partner characteristics in explaining the transition to a second or a higher order birth. ispartof: Demographic Research vol:36 issue:1 pages:1827-1858 status: published

OBJECTIVES: We analysed differences in healthy life expectancy at age 50 (HLE50) between migrants and non-migrants in Belgium , the Netherlands, and England and Wales, and their trends over time between 2001 and 2011 in the latter two countries.METHODS: Population, mortality and health data were derived from registers, census or surveys. HLE50 and the share of remaining healthy life years were calculated for non-migrants, western and non-western migrants by sex. We applied decomposition techniques to answer whether differences in HLE50 between origin groups and changes in HLE50 over time were attributable to either differences in mortality or health.RESULTS: In all three countries, older (non-western) migrants could expect to live less years in good health than older non-migrants. Differences in HLE50 between migrants and non-migrants diminished over time in the Netherlands, but they increased in England and Wales. General health, rather than mortality, mainly explained (trends in) inequalities in healthy life expectancy between migrants and non-migrants.CONCLUSIONS: Interventions aimed at reducing the health and mortality inequalities between older migrants and non-migrants should focus on prevention, and target especially non-western migrants.

Background: The Lexis surface plot is an established visualization tool in demography. Its presentutility, however, is limited to the domain of one-dimensional magnitudes such as ratesand counts. Visualizing proportions among three or more groups on a period-age grid isan unsolved problem. Objective: We seek to extend the Lexis surface plot to the domain of compositional data. Methods: We propose four techniques for visualizing group compositions on a period-age grid. Todemonstrate the techniques we use data on age-specific cause-of-death compositions inFrance from 1925 to 1999. We compare the visualizations for compliance with multipledesired criteria. Results: Compositional data can effectively be visualized on the Lexis surface. A key feature ofthe classical Lexis surface plot - to show age, period, and cohort patterns - is retainedin the domain of compositions. The optimal choice among the four proposed techniquesdepends primarily on the number of groups making up the composition and whether ornot the plot should be readable by people with impaired colour vision. Contribution: We introduce techniques for visualizing compositional data on a period-age grid to thefield of demography and demonstrate the usefulness of the techniques by performingan exploratory analysis of age-specific French cause-of-death patterns across the 20thcentury. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the four proposed techniques. We contribute a technique to construct the ternary-balance colour scheme from within a per-ceptually uniform colour space. Comments: A full-colour representation is key to understanding the paper. Therefore, we recommend that you read it on screen or print a colour version.

Theoretical models of the divorce process suggest that marital breakup is more painful in the presence of children, yet little is known about the role of children as a moderator of divorce effects on adult well-being. The present study addresses this gap of research based on long-term panel data from Germany (SOEP). Following individuals over several years before and after divorce, we investigated whether the impact of divorce on multiple measures of well-being varied by the presence and age of children before marital breakup. Three central findings emerged from the analysis. First, declines in well-being were sharper in the presence of children, and these moderator effects were larger if children were younger. Second, domain-specific measures of well-being revealed gender differences in the moderating role of children. Mothers sustained deeper drops in economic well-being than did fathers; the reverse was true for family well-being. Third, most of these disproportionate declines in the well-being of divorced parents did not persist in the long term given that higher rates of adaptation leveled out the gaps compared with childless divorcees.

Objective: We compare population aging in Europe and Asia using a measure that is both consistent over time and appropriate for cross-country comparison. Method: Sanderson and Scherbov proposed to estimate the old-age threshold by the age at which the remaining life expectancy (RLE) equals 15 years. We propose an adjustment of this measure, taking into account cross-national differences in the exceptionality of reaching that age. Results: Our old-age threshold was lower than 65 years in 2012 in Central Asia, Southern Asia, Southeastern Asia, and many Eastern European countries. These populations also experienced a higher share of elderly compared with the RLE15 method. Our method revealed more geographical diversity in the shares of elderly. Both methods exhibited similar time trends for the old-age thresholds and the shares of elderly. Discussion: Our prospective and comparative measure reveals higher population aging estimates in most Asian and Eastern European countries and more diversity in aging.

Background: Despite extensive research on the family behavior of young adults, family dynamics of children of migrants remain largely unexplored. This is unfortunate as family transitions are strongly interlinked with transitions in other domains (e.g., education, work) and predictive for outcomes later in life. Objective: We provide a comprehensive insight into ethnic differences in family behavior of young adults, focusing on Turkish, Moroccan, Surinamese, and Antillean second-generation women and native Dutch women. Moreover, we assess the importance of mixed parentage for family behavior. Methods: Using rich administrative micro data, we apply sequence analysis and follow an entire birth cohort of second-generation women and a native Dutch comparison group from age 16 to 30. Logistic regression analyses are carried out to examine ethnic differences in the prevalence of different family trajectories. Results: We found more between-person diversity in family behavior among second-generation women than among native Dutch women, particularly during the early twenties. Turkish and Moroccan women were found to start family formation relatively early in the life course, although many had left the parental home to live alone independently. Family trajectories of Surinamese and Antillean women were characterized by unmarried cohabitation and single motherhood. Native Dutch women generally opted for premarital cohabitation and postponed marriage and childbearing. Children from mixed couples behaved more like the majority population. Contribution: We cover multiple family events simultaneously by following women of diverse origin for 15 years through young adulthood. Additionally, we study differences between children of two foreign-born parents and children of mixed couples.

Mounting evidence suggests that early-life conditions have an enduring effect on an individual’s mortality risks as an adult. The contribution of improvements in early-life conditions to the overall decline in adult mortality, however, remains a debated issue. We provide an estimate of the contribution of improvements in early-life conditions to mortality decline after age 30 in Dutch cohorts born between 1812 and 1921. We used two proxies for early-life conditions: median height and early-childhood mortality. We estimate that improvements in early-life conditions contributed more than five years or about a third to the rise in women’s life expectancy at age 30. Improvements in early-life conditions contributed almost three years or more than a quarter to the rise in men’s life expectancy at age 30. Height appears to be the more important of the two proxies for early-life conditions.

Family background shapes young adults' decisions in their transition to adulthood, and the outcomes of these decisions lay the foundation for their subsequent life course. This study examines the influence of parental education on their children's union formation. We examine the timing of entry into a first union (a married or a cohabiting union), the choice between marriage and cohabitation, and the timing of first marriage. Data from eight nationally representative surveys conducted in the Netherlands are pooled (N = 39,777), with respondents being born between 1930 and 1990, to examine not only the effect of parental education on union formation but also whether this effect changes over birth cohorts, periods, and the life course, and varies by gender. Results from discrete-time hazard analyses show little change in the effect of parental education across cohorts and periods but strong life-course effects. Gender differences in the effect of parental education are relatively small.

Using administrative panel data, this paper presents a comprehensive empirical analysis of the return of recent foreign students in the Netherlands. We focus on how individual labour market changes and marriage formation influence their decision to leave. Our model allows for correlated unobserved heterogeneity across the migration, the labour market and the marriage formation processes. The large size of the data permits us to stratify the analysis by five groups based on the country of birth. The empirical analyses reveal that when students become unemployed they leave faster. The effect of finding a job on return is more ambiguous. For students from developed (including EU) countries it hardly affects their return, while students from less developed countries and Antilles/Surinam are more prone to leave after finding a job. Marriage in the Netherlands makes the students more prone to stay.

L’augmentation de l’espérance de vie est considérée comme l’un des facteurs déterminants du début de la croissance économique moderne. S’appuyant sur des informations concernant les élites, les historiens de l’économie ont remis en question l’idée, très courante chez les démographes, que l’espérance de vie serait restée plutôt stable jusqu’aux environs de 1800. Les informations sur l’évolution à long terme de l’espérance de vie qui pourraient corroborer cette affirmation demeurent rares. Nous présentons des données sur le corps médical aux Pays-Bas pour étudier l’évolution de l’espérance de vie à l’âge de 25 ans de générations nées entre le XVIe siècle et le début du XXe. En comparant le corps médical avec des groupes sans formation médicale – ecclésiastiques, artistes visuels, notables néerlandais, nobles et patriciens –, nous obtenons des indications sur le rôle qu’a joué la médecine dans le recul de la mortalité. Nous utilisons des modèles biographiques pour estimer la durée de la vie. Nous avons observé des allongements très importants de la survie dans l’ensemble des groupes retenus à partir des générations nées au xviie siècle. Le corps médical n’a pas fait exception à la règle, mais son espérance de vie n’a pas plus augmenté que celle d’autres catégories. Il semble donc que, pendant longtemps, le savoir médical n’ait procuré que des avantages limités à ses détenteurs.

In this study, we examine whether there is a well-being gap between persons in same-sex and mixed-sex unions. We consider the possible role that tolerance of homosexuality plays in the size of this gap by comparing these union types across nine European countries with varying levels of normative and legal tolerance (informal and formal institutional contexts, respectively). For social well-being, results indicate that the well-being gap indeed depends on both the informal and formal institutional contexts in a country. In intolerant societies, persons in same-sex unions have lower social well-being than persons in mixed-sex unions, whereas they fare slightly better in tolerant societies. We found that the normative dimension of tolerance matters more for the social well-being gap than the legal dimension. In line with our hypotheses, findings also show that men in same-sex couples are more affected by differences in the informal institutional context than women in same-sex couples. For depressive feelings, no significant joint effect of union type for either measure of tolerance was found. Overall, we demonstrate the theoretical usefulness of treating tolerance at the contextual level as a predictor of well-being by empirically testing the link between tolerance and well-being. We suggest considering intolerance also as a social problem on the country level, which is distinct from intolerance on the interpersonal level.

This study examines the relation between the proportion of co-ethnics in school and adolescents’ problem behaviour in school (e.g. skipping class and arguing with teachers) and whether friendship patterns are underlying this relationship. We use data from the Children of Immigrants Longitudinal Survey in Four European Countries on ±16,000 students in England, Germany, The Netherlands, and Sweden and find that children display less problem behaviour when the proportion of co-ethnics in school is higher. This relationship is mediated by the characteristics of the friends that students have: the proportion of co-ethnics in school positively relates to students’ proportion of in-school friends and co-ethnic friends in class, which are in turn negatively associated with problem behaviour in school. The strength and significance of these paths depend on students’ ethnicity and country of residence. Implications of this study are discussed in the conclusion.

This analysis uses the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions data for 2006–2011 to examine whether there is an identifiable relationship between public and private provision of financial assistance and whether increased public support is associated with receiving more or less private support. In line with previous research, the findings suggest that households in receipt of certain public financial assistance are more likely to receive financial assistance from their friends and family. Yet the paper goes further and argues that the effect is dependent on the nature of the policy. Specifically, active policies not related to previous labour market participation appear to be associated with greater financial assistance from friends and family compared to traditional, passive forms of welfare assistance which themselves show no effect. The paper therefore concludes that the association between private and public financial assistance is dependent upon the type of public assistance that is being considered.

Studies on fertility among second-generation migrant women across Europe have mainly treated the second generation as a rather homogenous group, not linking and distinguishing fertility patterns by type of partner. This study investigates how and to what extent the origin and generation of the partner (endogamous or exogamous as well as diversity in endogamy) of Turkish and Moroccan second-generation women in Belgium is related to first-birth rates. We distinguish three types of partnerships: those in an endogamous union with a first-generation partner, those in an endogamous union with a second-generation partner, and those in an exogenous union where the partner is of native Belgian origin. We use linked Census-Register data for the period 2001–2006. Applying event history models, our findings reveal clear differences between the endogamous and exogamous unions with respect to the timing of first births. Second-generation women of both origin groups have the lowest parenthood rates when the partner is of native Belgian origin. However, no variation is found within endogamous unions. For endogamous unions with a first-generation partner, the parenthood rates are approximately the same (and not higher, as was expected) compared to when the partner is also of second generation. ispartof: European Journal of Population / Revue Européenne de Démographie vol:34 issue:4 pages:579-608 ispartof: location:Netherlands status: published

Background: Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries have lower life expectancies and higher alcohol-attributable mortality than Western European countries. We examine the contribution of alcohol consumption to mortality across Europe, and specifically to the East-West life expectancy gap from 1990 onward.Methods: We retrieved alcohol-attributable mortality rates (GBD Study 2013) and all-cause mortality rates (Human Mortality Database) by age and sex for nine CEE countries and for the EU-15 countries. We assessed country-specific potential gains in life expectancy (PGLE) by eliminating alcohol-attributable mortality using associated single decrement life tables. We decomposed the life expectancy differences between each CEE country and the EU-15 population-weighted average for 1990-2012/13 into alcohol-attributable and non-alcohol-attributable mortality.Results: In 2012/13, the PGLE for men and women were, respectively, 2.15 and 1.00 years in the CEE region and 0.90 and 0.44 years in the EU-15 region. The contribution of alcohol to the East-West gap in life expectancy was largest among men in Russia {2.88 years [uncertainty interval (UI): 1.57-4.06]}, Belarus [3.70 years (UI: 1.75-5.45)] and Ukraine [2.47 years (UI: 0.90-3.88)]. The relative contributions increased in most of the countries between 1990 and 2005 (on average, from 17.0% to 25.4% for men, and from 14.7% to 22.5% for women), and declined thereafter (20.2% for men and 20.5% for women in 2012/13).Conclusions: Alcohol contributed substantially to the East-West life expectancy gap in Europe, and to its increase (1990-2005) and decline (2005 onward). Diminishing alcohol consumption in CEE countries to Western European levels can contribute to mortality convergence across Europe.

In this paper we use geo-coded, individual level register data on four European countries to compute comparative measures of segregation that are independent of existing geographical sub- divisions. The focus is on non-European migrants, and using aggregates for egocentric neighbourhoods with different population counts, small-scale, medium-scale, and large-scale segregation patterns are assessed. At the smallest scale level, corresponding to neighbourhoods with 200 persons, patterns of over- and under-representation are strikingly similar. At larger scale levels, Belgium stands out as having relatively strong over- and under-representation. More than 55% of the Belgian population lives in large-scale neighbourhoods with moderate under- or over- representation of non-European migrants. In the other countries, the corresponding figures are between 30 % and 40%. Possible explanations for this pattern are differences in housing policies and refugee placement policies. Sweden has the largest and Denmark the smallest non-European migrant population, in relative terms. Thus, in both migrant-dense and native-born dense areas, Swedish neighbourhoods have a higher concentration, and Denmark a lower concentration of non- European migrants than the other countries. For large-scale, migrant-dense neighbourhoods, however, levels of concentration are similar in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Sweden. Thus, if this pattern is linked to a high concentration of disadvantaged population groups, it shows that these countries are facing similar policy challenges with respect to neighbourhood contexts. Contexts that can have negative effects on outcomes such as employment, income and education. Residential segregation in five European countries

Background: This is an introduction to a Special Collection of Demographic Research on Interdisciplinary Research on Healthy Aging. The collection is an outcome of an international conference in China on biodemography and multistate modeling in healthy aging research. Causal analysis is the common theme of the papers. Healthy aging is an outcome of pathways of causally related distant and proximate determinants and intervening factors that mediate the effects of the determinants. Objective: The objective is to introduce the papers in this SC and to highlight the place of multistate modeling in causal analysis. Methods: We adopt the common distinction between structural causal modeling and dynamic causal modeling. The papers in the SC concentrate on structural causal modeling. Multistate models (and, more particularly, the continuous-time Markov process model) are oriented more toward dynamic causal modeling. In dynamic causal modeling the causal dependencies are defined in terms of events (outcomes), exposure time, and transition rates that relate exposures to events. Results: The contributions to the SC illustrate the progress made in structural causal modeling in the study of healthy aging. Dynamic causal analysis, however, has progressed comparatively slowly. Contribution: The papers in the SC and the brief introduction to multistate modeling in causal analysis pave the way to enhanced causal analysis in the study of healthy aging and in demography.

Contains fulltext : 183782.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access) Employing Dutch longitudinal information on 1250 second-generation Moroccan and Turkish migrants we investigate cultural assimilation using attitude questions on marriage and sexuality (including measures of homophobia). Two theoretical approaches guide our analyses. First, it is expected that the family of origin may push migrants in a more conservative direction. Second, it is expected that aspects of individual achievement in social, cultural and socioeconomic domains may pull migrants in more liberal directions. We find that Moroccan and Turkish migrants have considerably more conservative values about marriage and sexuality than natives, but there is also variation within the second generation. Both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses for migrants indicate that the role of parents is particularly important: migrant children of religiously more orthodox parents and children of parents who were poorly integrated socially and culturally in their youth, currently have more conservative values about marriage and sexuality, even when individual characteristics are controlled for. Of the various aspects of individual achievement, we find that especially social integration of the second generation is a relevant predictor of liberal values, and not socioeconomic indicators of integration. These results remain significant in a stringent longitudinal test which minimises the bias due to reverse causation. 21 p.

The 'crowding-out' and the 'decline of the family' hypotheses are the fundamental theoretical notions underlying the literature on cross-country differences in informal support. In this study, we expand upon these notions to develop and test the premise that cultural context shapes European's views about an often overlooked source of support: non-kin. We carefully conceptualise cultural context as individualistic values and familialistic norms. Employing multilevel multinomial models and European Quality of Life Survey data from 27 countries, we confirm the importance of decomposing the broader notion of culture by demonstrating that contexts with both less pronounced individualistic values and less pronounced familialistic norms are conducive to non-kin rather than kin or professional help. Moreover, unlike prior work, which suggested the existence of a north/west-south/east divide in support patterns, our findings show nuanced cross-national differences in the importance of non-kin ties as a source of advice and help when looking for a job. We find some of the highest levels of non-kin reliance in countries in southern and eastern Europe, and in northern and western Europe more generally. We conclude by proposing ways in which future research can advance our understanding of the role of context in shaping support patterns.

What is the emigration rate of a country, and how reliable is that figure? Answering these questions is not at all straightforward. Most data on international migration are census data on foreign-born population. These migrant stock data describe the immigrant population in destination countries but offer limited information on the rate at which people leave their country of origin. The emigration rate depends on the number leaving in a given period and the population at risk of leaving, weighted by the duration at risk. Emigration surveys provide a useful data source for estimating emigration rates, provided that the estimation method accounts for sample design. In this study, emigration rates and confidence intervals are estimated from a sample survey of households in the Dakar region in Senegal, which was part of the Migration between Africa and Europe survey. The sample was a stratified two-stage sample with oversampling of households with members abroad or return migrants. A combination of methods of survival analysis (time-to-event data) and replication variance estimation (bootstrapping) yields emigration rates and design-consistent confidence intervals that are representative for the study population.

Objective: This article examines the diverse ways in which young adults develop both their professional career and family life in the years immediately after they complete their education. Building a career and starting a family often occur simultaneously in this stage of life. By studying the simultaneous developments in these life domains, we can gain a better understanding of this complex interplay. Methods: The data consist of a sample of 1,657 young adults born in 1976 who were interviewed as part of the SONAR survey of Flanders at ages 23, 26, and 29 about their education, their entry into and early years on the labour market, and their family life. Sequence analysis is used to study the timing of union formation and having children among these young adults, as well as how these events are related to their work career. Multinomial regression analysis is applied to help us gain a better understanding of the extent to which these life course patterns are determined by education and economic status at the start of the career. Results: The results reveal a set of work-family trajectories which vary in terms of the extent of labour market participation and the type and timing of family formation. Various aspects of the trajectory are found to be determined by different dimensions of an individual's educational career (duration, level, field of study). Education is more relevant for women than for men, as a man's trajectory is more likely than a woman's to be determined by the first job. Conclusions: By using a simultaneous approach which takes into account both family and work, this life course analysis confirms that men have a head start on the labour market, and examines the factors which influence the distinct trajectories of young women and men.

BACKGROUNDMost research asks whether or not cohabitation has come to rival marriage. Little is known about the meaning of living apart together (LAT) relationships, and whether LAT is an alternative to marriage and cohabitation or a dating relationship.OBJECTIVEWe examine across Europe: (1) the prevalence of LAT, (2) the reasons for LAT, and (3) the correlates of (a) LAT relationships vis-a-vis being single, married, or cohabiting, and (b) different types of LAT union.METHODSUsing Generations and Gender Survey data from ten Western and Eastern European countries, we present descriptive statistics about LATs and estimate multinominal logistic regression models to assess the correlates of being in different types of LAT unions.RESULTSLAT relationships are uncommon, but they are more common in Western than Eastern Europe. Most people in LAT unions intend to live together but are apart for practical reasons. LAT is more common among young people, those enrolled in higher education, people with liberal attitudes, highly educated people, and those who have previously cohabited or been married. Older people and divorced or widowed persons are more likely to choose LAT to maintain independence. Surprisingly, attitudinal and educational differences are more pronounced in Eastern Europe than in Western Europe.CONCLUSIONSA tentative conclusion is that LAT is more often a stage in the union formation process than an alternative to marriage and cohabitation. Yet some groups do view LAT as substituting for marriage and cohabitation, and these groups differ between East and West. In Eastern Europe a cultural, highly educated elite seems to be the first to resist traditional marriage norms and embrace LAT (and cohabitation) as alternative living arrangements, whereas this is less the case in Western Europe. In Western Europe, LAT unions are mainly an alternative for persons who have been married before or had children in a prior relationship.

This paper provides a descriptive and comparative analysis of transnational families with members located in Africa and Europe. It is thus far the only quantitative study, to our knowledge, that includes crosscountry comparisons and focuses on the African European context. By comparing both countries of origin and destination, differences in family arrangements are found among Ghana, Senegal, and the Democratic Republic of Congo as well as within these groups depending on the European destination countries. Findings show that dates of arrival and migrant legal status are most commonly associated with transnational family forms. Family and gender norms at origin, migration motivations, destination country family reunification and migration policies, and destination country characteristics related to language, employment opportunities, and educational system help to explain the differences found.

After Poland’s accession to the European Union in 2004, Polish migration within Europe has increased considerably. Still, little is known about this large and growing group of immigrants. Using unique panel data from the Dutch population registers, we first apply sequence analysis to explore and describe the variety of family life courses among young adult (aged 20–30 at migration) Polish migrants in the Netherlands. Each individual family life career is followed for a 5-year period on a monthly time base. Optimal matching analysis is applied to compute (dis)similarities between individuals, in order to cluster into predominant life paths. Second, a series of logistic regression analyses were carried out to determine the main factors of importance on the different family life paths. Findings showed a strong impact of the partner’s origin on the type of union and likelihood of return migration. Unemployment was found to be another important trigger of return migration. With regard to gender differences, we found that men are more likely to remain single and to leave the Netherlands at some point, while women more often cohabit and tend to stay.

We propose a typology of different meanings of cohabitation that combines cohabiters' intentions to marry with a general attitude toward marriage, using competing risk analyses to examine whether some cohabiters are more prone than others to marry or to separate. Using data (N = 1,258) from four waves of the German Family Panel (PAIRFAM) and a supplementary study (DEMODIFF), we compared eastern and western German cohabiters of the birth cohorts 1971-73 and 1981-83. Western Germans more frequently view cohabitation as a step in the marriage process, whereas eastern Germans more often cohabit as an alternative to marriage. Taking into account marital attitudes reveals that cohabiters without marriage plans differ from those with plans in their relationship careers, and also shows that cohabiters who plan to marry despite holding a less favourable view of marriage are less likely to realize their plans than cohabiters whose intentions and attitudes are more congruent.

Background: Prevalence of disability depends on when a person becomes disabled (disability incidence) and when he or she dies (mortality). Multistate projection models can take into account both underlying processes of disability prevalence. The application of these models, however, is often hampered by high data requirements. Objective: This paper describes a generic estimation procedure for calculating disability incidence rates and mortality rates by disability status from data on disability prevalence and overall mortality. The procedure allows for the addition of risk factors. Methods: We estimate disability incidence rates from disability prevalence and mortality rates by disability status using prevalence data on disability from SHARE and mortality data from Eurostat and the Rotterdam Study of Health (ERGO). We use these rates to project future trends of ADL-disability prevalence among the elderly in the Netherlands for the period 2008-2040 using the multistate projection model LIPRO. Results: This paper shows that even in the case of limited data, multistate projection models can be applied to project trends in disability prevalence. In a scenario that assumes constant disability incidence rates, disability prevalence among the elderly will increase even though the mortality rates of disabled persons exceed those of non-disabled people. In a scenario that assumes declining incidence rates at the same pace as declining mortality rates, disability prevalence will be significantly lower. This latter scenario results in an almost similar decline in disability prevalence as the scenario assuming a strong reduction of age-specific obesity among the elderly. One conclusion, therefore, could be that the prevalence of obesity should be seriously reduced to reach a strong reduction of disability incidence. Conclusions: The strength of this method to calculate disability incidence-rates based on disability prevalence-rates is that the relationship between changes in mortality and changes in disability is taken into account, and that the effects of risk factors can be estimated. The improved transparency of the projections, the generic nature of the model and the applicability to all (European) countries with disability prevalence data make it a useful instrument for making plausible projections of future patterns of disability prevalence based on disability incidence.

We examine in depth the effect of differences in the smoking adoption patterns of men and women on the mortality gender gap in Netherlands, employing a historical perspective. Using an indirect estimation technique based on observed lung cancer mortality from 1931 to 2012, we estimated lifetime smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality. We decomposed the sex difference in life expectancy at birth into smoking-related and nonsmoking-related overall and cause-specific mortality. The smoking epidemic in Netherlands, which started among men born around 1850 and among women from birth cohort 1900 onwards, contributed substantially to the increasing sex difference in life expectancy at birth from 1931 (1.3 years) to 1982 (6.7 years), the subsequent decline to 3.7 years in 2012, and the high excess mortality among Dutch men born between 1895 and 1910. Smoking-related cancer mortality contributed most to the increase in the sex difference, whereas smoking-related cardiovascular disease mortality was mainly responsible for the decline from 1983 onwards. Examining nonsmoking-related (cause-specific) mortality shed new light on the mortality gender gap and revealed the important role of smoking-related cancers, the continuation of excess mortality among women aged 40–50, and a smaller role of biological factors in the sex difference than was previously estimated.

At the end of the nineteenth century, infant mortality rates started to fall rapidly in the Netherlands. Unfortunately, not all regions benefited from this development. High infant death in the Roman Catholic provinces of North-Brabant and Limburg has often been ascribed to a growing reluctance of Catholic mothers to breastfeed their infants after 1870. This was supposedly caused by the combination of a strict, prudish Roman Catholic norm prohibiting women from baring their breasts and a refusal to accept new medical insights into healthy childcare. The food given to weaned children was generally of such poor quality that many infants succumbed to gastrointestinal diseases. Consequently, infant mortality rates caused by water- and food-borne infectious diseases would have been higher amongst weaned babies. By using recently digitised municipal cause-of-death registration statistics, it is possible to see if there are, indeed, indications of a shift in breastfeeding patterns after 1870. First, the authors look at infant deaths from all causes to see whether Roman Catholic municipalities underwent a rise in the mortality of children under the age of one. Second, the authors do the same for cause-specific infant mortality from typhus, typhoid fever, diarrhoea, dysentery, acute diseases of the digestive system and cholera. Based on the outcomes, there was no homogenous rise in infant mortality in all Roman Catholic municipalities. Furthermore, there is no indication that infant mortality due to digestive diseases increased uniformly in all Roman Catholic communities between 1875 and 1899. Either some communities were able to counteract the negative effects of a shift towards weaning or changes in breastfeeding patterns were not a specific Roman Catholic phenomenon at all.

We propose to extend demographic multistate models by adding a behavioural element: behavioural rules explain intentions and thus transitions. Our framework is inspired by the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We exemplify our approach with a model of migration from Senegal to France. Model parameters are determined using empirical data where available. Parameters for which no empirical correspondence exists are determined by calibration. Age- and period-specific migration rates are used for model validation. Our approach adds to the toolkit of demographic projection by allowing for shocks and social influence, which alter behaviour in non-linear ways, while sticking to the general framework of multistate modelling. Our simulations yield that higher income growth in Senegal leads to higher emigration rates in the medium term, while a decrease in fertility yields lower emigration rates.

In the US, growing up with parents with a low socio-economic status (SES) has been shown to increase the chance of having a birth outside marriage. However, less is known about the influence of parental SES in other Western countries. The current paper examines the association between parental educational attainment with the partnership context at first birth in 16 European and North American countries, by differentiating births within marriage, within cohabitation, or while being single. Moreover, we test whether the association between parental education and partnership context at childbirth changes over cohorts and whether its influence changes when controlling for own educational attainment. Data from the Generations and Gender Programme were used, as well as data from the American National Survey of Family Growth, the Canadian General Social Survey, and the Dutch Survey on Family Formation. The results show that in North American and East European countries, but not in West European countries, lower parental education increases the risk of having a birth within cohabitation. Moreover, in North American countries and half of the West and East European countries, lower parental education increases the risk of having a birth while being single. The association of parental education with the partnership context at birth tends to change furthermore over cohorts, although no clear pattern could be observed between countries. The study suggests that the intergenerational transmission of education is an important mechanism in explaining the influence of parental education, although other mechanisms also appear to be at work.

Second-generation Turkish immigrants make up an increasingly important segment of European labour markets. These young adults are entering the prime working ages and forming families. However, we have only a limited understanding of the relationship between labour force participation and parenthood among second-generation Turkish women. Using unique data from the Integration of the European Second Generation survey (2007/08), we compared the labour force participation of second-generation Turkish women with their majority-group counterparts by motherhood status in four countries. We found evidence that motherhood gaps, with respect to labour force participation, were similar for majority and second-generation Turkish women in Germany and in Sweden; however, there may be larger gaps for second-generation mothers than for majority women in the Netherlands and France. Cross-national findings were consistent with the view that national normative and social policy contexts are relevant for the labour force participation of all women, regardless of migrant background.

This article explores qualitatively how and to what extent religion protects older Romanian migrants from loneliness. The analysis is based on fieldwork research in two Swiss cantons and in neighbouring France among 30 Romanian migrants aged 57+. The sample is heterogeneous, made up of persons who fled the communist regime in their youth and others who migrated later in life for work or to be with their families. The fieldwork research points towards a population that is coping successfully with migration and other challenges, many of whom did not report feelings of loneliness. In an increasingly laic occidental world, many of the Romanian participants in our research appear to be religious and go to church; this often protects them from loneliness, whether they migrated 30 years or 7 months ago. The article concludes with study limitations, implications and directions for further research.

Data on secondary school children in England, Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden show that large differences exist in family structure within the minority population: In some groups, father absence is more common than among natives; in others, it is less common. These patterns reflect the differences in family structure in the origin countries, but the migration process also plays a role. Next, it is found that father absence has negative effects on immigrant children's well-being, but these effects appear weaker in minority groups where father absence is more common. Heterogeneous effects are interpreted in terms of different degrees of institutionalization of father absence in different minority groups.

In the face of rapidly aging population, decreasing regional inequalities in population composition is one of the regional cohesion goals of the European Union. To our knowledge, no explicit quantification of the changes in regional population aging differentiation exist. We investigate how regional differences in population aging developed over the last decade and how they are likely to evolve in the coming three decades, and we examine how demographic components of population growth contribute to the process. We use the beta-convergence approach to test whether regions are moving towards a common level of population aging. The change in population composition is decomposed into the separate effects of changes in the size of the non-working-age population and of the working-age population. The latter changes are further decomposed into the effects of cohort turnover, migration at working ages, and mortality at working ages. European Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS)-2 regions experienced notable convergence in population aging during the period 2003–2012 and are expected to experience further convergence in the coming three decades. Convergence in aging mainly depends on changes in the population structure of East-European regions. Cohort turnover plays the major role in promoting convergence. Differences in mortality at working ages, though quite moderate themselves, have a significant cumulative effect. The projections show that when it is assumed that net migration flows at working ages are converging across European regions, this will not contribute to convergence of population aging. The beta-convergence approach proves useful to examine regional variations in population aging across Europe.

This paper compares the statures of men during late adolescence, measured at age 19, with the stature in adulthood, measured at age 25, specially focusing on the influences of household situation and family stress. On average, the men studied became five centimeters taller in the interval, but there was a large individual variation as the shortest men realized the largest 'catch-up' growth. We study how childhood deprivation impacted on growth in adolescence. Childhood deprivation was measured, apart from socioeconomic status and social cultural characteristics of the household, through family size, number of siblings, mortality clustering in the family, and certain characteristics of the mother. In particular, we are interested in the question whether these early-life experiences had a lasting effect, in other words to what extent they were still visible at age 25 and to what extent they influenced the potential for catch-up growth. Our results indicate that the independent influence of family composition was very weak. When comparing temporary and lasting effects on male stature, we see that in general the influences of socioeconomic status and sociocultural factors were, although weaker, still visible at age 25. The results also make clear, that the height at the age of 19 is a better, more sensitive, indicator for the circumstances in which a child grew up. The results of this exercise should be interpreted with caution, as they are based on a small number of cases.

The consequences of population decline are present at different geographical scales and are often believed to be self-reinforcing. This means that population decline possibly causes changes in the living environment, which brings about more population decline. This research analysed if population decline at the neighbourhood level has an effect on the probability to move out or within rural neighbourhoods in North-Netherlands. It was expected that a preceding decline of the population in the neighbourhood increased the probability to move out of the neighbourhood, but that this effect differed for categories of the population and for moves over short and long distance. Using register data and additional surveys for 2006, a multinomial logistic regression model was constructed to estimate the effects of a preceding decline of neighbourhood populations on the probability to move over short and long distances for different categories of the population. It was found that a preceding decline of the neighbourhood population increased the probability to move out of the neighbourhood. However, this effect was only found for moves out of the neighbourhood up to 10 km of especially young adults, couples with children, and people aged 65 to 75. Moreover, by calculating estimated probabilities of moving out of neighbourhoods with declining and stable populations, it was shown that the difference between actual numbers of people moving out of these two types of neighbourhoods, was small and could therefore take a long time to have serious impact on the neighbourhood population.

Background: Since the early 21stcentury, period total fertility has been recovering from (very) low levels in many European countries. This trend is partly attributable to the end of the postponement of childbearing. The question has risen, however, to what extent this recovery is also related to the changing ethnic composition of European populations. Objective: In this paper, we investigate to what extent the population of foreign origin contributed to the recent (2001/2008) recovery of period fertility in the Belgian region of Flanders. Methods: We use data from the Flemish Family and Child Care Agency for calculating time trends in the share of births to foreign origin groups. We furthermore propose a counterfactual method that allows us to assess indirectly the role played by births to women of foreign origin in the recent recovery of fertility. Results and Conclusion: Overall, we find that births to women of foreign origin have made increasingly important contributions to the number of children born in the Flemish region: between 2001 and 2008, the share of births to women of foreign origin grew from 16% to 20%. Nevertheless, the results from our counterfactual fertility analysis indicate that the recovery of fertility in Flanders would have occurred even in the absence of any births to women of foreign origin. The recovery can in large part be attributed to births among the native Belgian population. © 2014 Lisa Van Landschoot et. al. ispartof: Demographic Research vol:30 issue:12 pages:361-376 status: published

We examined double standards in norms concerning voluntary childlessness. Whether the choice to remain childless is more accepted for men or women is not a priori clear; we formulated hypotheses in both directions. Parenthood might be considered as more central to women's identity than to men's, resulting in higher disapproval of childlessness for women. Yet, as the costs of parenthood are higher for women, people might also be more accepting of their choice to remain childless and disapprove more of childless men. Multilevel analyses were conducted, including individual and societal-level variables. Our sample consisted of N=44,055 individuals nested in 25 European countries, obtained from the third round of the European Social Survey (2006). Subjective norms regarding voluntary childlessness were measured with a split-ballot design: half of the respondents were randomly assigned items regarding women choosing childlessness, and the other half was assigned items regarding men. Findings indicated that men were more disapproved of when choosing not to have children than women. Generally, this double standard was endorsed by women, not by men. Clear cross-national variation in the double standard existed, which was partly explained by the level of gender equality. We found that higher levels of gender equality were associated with larger double standards favouring women. © The Author 2014.