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Understanding the effects of global climate change from both environmental and human health perspectives has gained great importance. Particularly, studies on the direct effect of temperature increase on future mortality have been conducted. However, few of those studies considered population changes, and although the world population is rapidly aging, no previous study considered the effect of society aging. Here we present a projection of future temperature-related mortality due to both climate and demographic changes in seven major cities of South Korea, a fast aging country, until 2100; we used the HadGEM3-RA model under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and the United Nations world population prospects under three fertility scenarios (high, medium, and low). The results showed markedly increased mortality in the elderly group, significantly increasing the overall future mortality. In 2090s, South Korea could experience a four- to six-time increase in temperature-related mortality compared to that during 1992-2010 under four different RCP scenarios and three different fertility variants, while the mortality is estimated to increase only by 0.5 to 1.5 times assuming no population aging. Therefore, not considering population aging may significantly underestimate temperature risks., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Compression of mortality is measured here in four ways: 1) by standard deviation of the age at death above the mode; 2) by standard deviation of the age at death in the highest quartile; 3) by the inter-quartile range; and 4) by the shortest age interval in which a given proportion of deaths take place. The two first-mentioned are directed at old ages, while the other two measure compression over the entire age range. The fourth alternative is recommended as the most suitable for general use and offers several variations, called the C-family of compression indicators. Applied to historical and modern populations, all four measures show convincingly that the secular transition from high to low mortality has been accompanied by general and massive compression of mortality. In recent decades, however, this development has come close to stagnation even when life expectancy continues to increase. This has happened at a level where compression is still so incomplete that the shortest age interval in which 90% of deaths occur, is 35 years. It seems unrealistic to expect human mortality ever to be compressed into so narrow an age interval that the survival curve would even approximately rectangular. It is considered useful to monitor changes in the compression of mortality because the indicators describe relevant aspects of the length of life and may acquire new significance as indicators of population heterogeneity.

Fertility responded negatively to grain insufficiency (proxied by grain price increases), and mortality responded positively in Croatia-Slavonia-Srem in the 18th and 19th centuries, as in most of Europe. Shifts in the intensity and timing of these responses occurred over time as social and economic structures changed. Shifts in the elasticity of fertility with respect to grain supply inversely mimic and lag changes in the elasticity of mortality. Both appear to be induced by increasing land shortage, the collapse of feudalism, and differences in the patterns of adjustment to post-feudal conditions among former civil and military serfs. Generally, responses are stronger for civil and former civil serfs, who may have been in less favorable economic circumstances than the military. Fertility responses in the year of a price shock come to dominate those in the year following, suggesting a shift from contraception to abortion as economic and social conditions apparently worsened and strategies of control intensified. Analysis of monthly responses supports the conjecture based on the annual responses. The shift to the preventive check and strength of the preventive check in the same year as the price shock is unusual in Europe and beyond. Analysis is based on 25 parishes and employs lagged annual and monthly time series analysis with corrections for autocorrelation, in combination with ethnographic and historical data.

"Recent new data on old age mortality point to a particular model for the way in which the probability of dying increases with age. The model is found to fit not only modern data but also some widely spaced historical data for the 19th and 17th centuries, and even some estimates for the early mediaeval period. The results show a pattern which calls for explanation. The model can also be used to predict a probability distribution for the highest age which will be attained in given circumstances. The results are relevant to the current debate about whether there is a fixed upper limit to the length of human life." A discussion of the paper by several researchers and a reply by the author are included., (excerpt)

"This article examines the individual contribution of the constituent components of population growth (fertility, mortality and net external migration) for the European Economic Area (EEA) and its countries. Section 2 describes the general outline of the scenarios for the countries of the EEA. Section 3 gives the main results for the EEA, whereas section 4 elaborates on the countries of the EEA.", (excerpt)

"Various aspects of mortality in Mongolia are considered in this article, which analyses data from a large-scale demographic survey conducted in late 1994. Because of health improvements introduced into the country following the Second World War, Mongolia experienced a three-fold increase in its population between 1950 and 1990. However, the survey and other data show that the pace of rapid population growth has produced some ill effects. Short birth intervals, high birth orders and mother's young age at the time of giving birth have all increased mortality and morbidity risks.", (excerpt)

"This paper surveys the recent literature...on disease and health in the Americas before 1492, drawing some general conclusions regarding the major causes of mortality in various regions of the hemisphere. The paper adopts a comparative perspective, examining patterns of mortality in areas sparsely populated by societies of hunter-gatherers and those of the more densely settled regions including Mesoamerica and the Andean Highlands. It also compares causes of mortality in different geographical zones ranging from the tropical latitudes of the Caribbean and Central America to the temperate zones of North and South America.", (excerpt)

"Increased public policy focus on indigenous Australians over the past 30 years has resulted in a substantial expansion of demographic analysis over the same period. This paper reviews these efforts and summarizes the main topics, findings and debates. The accumulated evidence points to both demographic change and continuity. Change: in that mortality has declined; fertility levels have been much reduced; urbanization has burgeoned and population growth has entered a phase of rapid increase. Continuity: because mortality is still much higher than the Australian average; fertility remains at a level well above that reported for all women; most individuals still live away from major cities; and the estimation of overall numbers still hinges on a social construction of identity.", (excerpt)

"Sampling errors and design effects from 48 nationally representative surveys conducted under the Demographic and Health Surveys Program for a large number of variables concerning fertility, family planning, fertility intentions, child health and mortality etc. are analysed for the total sample, and for urban-rural domains, sub-national regions and various demographic and socio-economic subclasses.... At the country level, overall design effect (the ratio of actual to simple random sampling standard error) averaged over all variables and countries is around 1.5. Variation among countries is high, but less so than among variables. Urban-rural and regional differentials in design effects are small, and can be attributed to the fact that similar sample designs and cluster sizes were used across those domains within each country. Design effects for estimates over other subclasses are smaller, and tend towards 1.0 for small subclasses and differences, apart from the effect of sample weights which tends to persist undiminished across variables and subclasses." (SUMMARY IN FRE), (excerpt)

"The paper examines the mother's health-seeking behaviour and childhood mortality in Pakistan. This is based on the 1990-91 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS).... It was found that neonatal, infant, and child mortality rate is the highest among children of mothers aged less than 20 years. Infant and child mortality rate is likewise higher among first and higher order births than among births of second or third order. It was further found that mortality declines as the length of the birth interval increases. The results reveal that the education of mother has significant effect on the neonatal, infant and child survival.... Health care factors such as antenatal care, place of delivery, assistance at delivery and immunisation also influenced neonatal, infant and child mortality.", (excerpt)

"This paper makes use of a recently established comparative series of period and cohort life tables for the Netherlands for the period 1850-1991. Trends in period and cohort life expectancy at birth for males and females are discussed. A simple spline function is used to identify turning points in these trends. Trends in the contribution of specific age groups to the changes in life expectancy and to male excess mortality were studied using the Arriaga method. For this purpose, the results of period and cohort analysis were compared." (SUMMARY IN ITA AND FRE), (excerpt)

"Through a discrete-time life-event analysis of triennial household register data from a northeast Chinese village, Daoyi, between 1774 and 1873, we find that an individual's probability of dying, which we treat as an indicator of access to resources and the nature of household roles, was affected by the composition of their coresident kin.... Widows and widowers had higher mortality than the currently married. Orphans had higher mortality than children with at least one parent present. Reflecting the dependence of a wife's status on whether she had produced an heir for her husband, married women in young adulthood and middle age who had at least one son had substantially lower mortality than those without. Reflecting the strength of the claim that elderly males could make on household resources, children with coresident grandfathers had higher mortality than those without. Even though sons were supposed to be a form of old-age security, however, the death rate of the elderly was not reduced by the presence of sons and grandsons.", (excerpt)

"The article presents an attempt to make a quantitative evaluation of the impact of the environment on the rate of mortality, focusing on the group of stress-bearing factors that, according to some hypotheses, make up the set of potential, indirect determinants in the process of mortality. According to these opinions, the environment can be a source of different forms of stress. One stressor can be the social and economic status of individuals, being the function of the economic development of the region, another the instability of the social situation in the region. Both types of stress sources seem to be particularly adequate in the evaluation of the impact of this type of factor on the process of mortality in Poland in the period of system transformation.", (excerpt)

"Through analyses on the changes in the mortality rate, total population size, regional population distribution, gender-specific age structure, and the population nationality structure in major habitats of Tibetan residents since the founding of the People's Republic, this article shows that the Tibetan population size has been on the steady increase, mortality rate has seen marked decrease, and the rights of existence of Tibetan people have been fully guaranteed since the establishment of the Communist Government in 1949.", (excerpt)

"This study considers the utility of parameterised life tables derived by survival analysis for comparing mortality between areas, using death registration records and accompanying information on the social characteristics for each individual deceased. Such methods enable a comparison of summary measures of mortality experience such as life expectancy and median age at death before and after adjustment for socio-economic variables. In the absence of comparable information on the survivor population an approximate life table method is investigated as a means of comparing mortality profiles and the effects of social factors. Such factors may pertain both to the individuals (e.g. their birthplace) or to their small area of residence (e.g. measures of area deprivation). These methods also permit a comparison of the impact of socio-economic factors on different causes of death. The application is to mortality in London over the period 1990-92 and to its constituent boroughs and electoral wards.", (excerpt)

"The principal objective of this paper...is to estimate the number of Kurds in Turkey and their spatial distribution.... The ethnically Kurdish component of the population has increased from 3.132 million in 1965 to 7.046 million in 1990. This very substantial increase has been due to high fertility, which is a characteristic of agrarian or recently agrarian societies...,coupled with falling mortality, a typical case of demographic transition.... Perhaps more importantly, the massive population movements during the last two decades have spatially redistributed the Kurds.", (excerpt)