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In Sub-Saharan Africa, unprecedented population growth, concomitant with limited industrialisation and job creation, have changed the configurations of rural-urban linkages in recent decades. Indeed, as primate cities do not act as strong engines of growth, territorial dynamics are rapidly being reshaped by renewed flows of people, goods, services and information within and between economic sectors, and between rural and urban areas. Rural densification and the fast expansion of small and medium-sized cities is one manifestation of these changes. As a result of silo thinking about rural and urban in most national strategies, plus the widespread informal economy and limited available statistics in the region, these new rural-urban linkages and their contribution to socioeconomic dynamics remain underexplored. Contributing to fill this gap, the aim of this paper is to present and test a method to assess rural-urban linkages and their possible role in territorial development in southern countries. We use a holistic approach and adopt an original posture, taking rural areas as the point of reference. Our method sets proxy indicators for specific information that is missing on rural-urban linkages. These indicators are then used to build a typology of territories according to potential rural-urban linkages, using a multivariate analysis and clustering. When applied to the case of Zimbabwe, the results reveal three types of districts, which differ in terms of the nature, intensity, direction and potential of rural-urban linkages for territorial development. We discuss the method’s suitability in a diagnostic phase and how it could feed strategic thinking to mainstream rural-urban linkages in territorial development actions.

International audience; Le Mali a quadruplé sa population entre 1960 et 2020. Cette croissance démographique implique des besoins d'accès à la sécurité alimentaire et nutritionnelle, à la santé, à l'éducation et à l'emploi pour les primo arrivants. C'est le secteur agricole qui est sollicité par les politiques publiques pour répondre à cette demande. Quelle est la tendance démographique dans la zone cotonnière du Mali ? Quelles ont été les réponses locales face aux implications de cette croissance démographique en termes d'accès à la santé et à l'éducation ? Le présent article répond à ces questions à travers la mobilisation et l'analyse statistique et spatiale des données sur la production agricole et l'accès à la santé et à l'éducation à plusieurs échelles. Les résultats révèlent : (1) une croissance démographique supérieure à la moyenne du pays mais inégalement répartie, (2) une augmentation progressive de la quantité de céréales (maïs, mil et sorgho) par habitant liée à un accroissement de la production agricole plus rapide que celui de la population et (3) des progrès importants en matière d'accès physique aux infrastructures de santé et d'éducation. Cependant, la croissance démographique et les nouveaux défis liés à la sécurité alimentaire et à la nutrition soulèvent de nouvelles interrogations sur la capacité de l'agriculture à répondre à une demande de produits agricoles plus soutenue et diversifiée.

International audience; In sub-Saharan Africa, the magnitude of the demographic challenge implies anticipating targets to be reached within the time horizon of the next generation, in all sectors of activity. We propose an operational methodology that can be implemented by policymakers and actors in rural territories to envision the future and to prepare their development strategy. This territorial foresight methodology combines an analysis of past local dynamics, a 20-year population projection and a participatory foresight process. It enables collective thinking on sustainable paths and provides a framework for monitoring and steering public territorial action.

International audience; En Afrique subsaharienne, l’ampleur du défi démographique impose d’anticiper les objectifs à atteindre à l’horizon de la prochaine génération, et ce dans tous les secteurs d’activité. Nous proposons une méthode opérationnelle que les décideurs et les acteurs des territoires ruraux peuvent mettre en place pour imaginer le futur et élaborer leur stratégie de développement. Cette méthode de prospective territoriale combine un diagnostic des dynamiques locales passées, une projection de la population du territoire à 20 ans et un travail de prospective participative. Elle permet de réfléchir collectivement à des trajectoires soutenables et elle offre un cadre pour suivre et piloter l’action publique territoriale.

Anthropogenic deforestation in tropical countries is responsible for a significant part of global carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere. To plan efficient climate change mitigation programs (such as REDD+, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation), reliable forecasts of deforestation and carbon dioxide emissions are necessary. Although population density has been recognized as a key factor in tropical deforestation, current methods of prediction do not allow the population explosion that is occurring in many tropical developing countries to be taken into account. Here, we propose an innovative approach using novel computational and statistical tools, including R/GRASS scripts and the new phcfM R package, to model the intensity and location of deforestation including the effect of population density. We used the model to forecast anthropogenic deforestation and carbon dioxide emissions in five large study areas in the humid and spiny-dry forests of Madagascar. Using our approach, we were able to demonstrate that the current rapid population growth in Madagascar (+3.39% per year) will significantly increase the intensity of deforestation by 2030 (up to +1.17% per year in densely populated areas). We estimated the carbon dioxide emissions associated with the loss of aboveground biomass to be of 2.24 and 0.26 tons per hectare and per year in the humid and spiny-dry forest, respectively. Our models showed better predictive ability than previous deforestation models (the figure of merit ranged from 10 to 23). We recommend this approach to reduce the uncertainty associated with deforestation forecasts. We also underline the risk of an increase in the speed of deforestation in the short term in tropical developing countries undergoing rapid population expansion.

Le continent africain, vaste et inégalement peuplé, a connu une forte croissance de sa population au cours des cinquante dernières années qui lui fait rattraper son déficit démographique ancien. La poursuite des dynamiques en cours se traduira par une densification du peuplement lourde de conséquences sur le rapport des hommes aux ressources naturelles, tout en renouvelant les configurations territoriales.

The African continent is vast with an unequally distributed population. It has experienced high population growth over the last 50 years, which has corrected its former demographic deficit. If current dynamics continue, the results will be population densification, with serious implications for the relationship between people and natural resources, and changes to territorial configurations.

Cet article traite des perspectives démographiques de la Wallonie, région de langue française de Belgique, en situant le problème de cette population à croissance presque nulle, en regard de l'évolution démographique mondiale et en tentant la critique d'une politique stationnaire. Il se termine par une comparaison avec le Québec.Dans un premier paragraphe, l'auteur examine la multiplication exponentielle de la population mondiale et évoque à la fois l'oeuvre de Malthus et la conception récente d'une « Halte à la croissance ». Le paragraphe suivant est consacré à l'évolution de la population de la Wallonie depuis l'indépendance de la Belgique jusqu'au recensement de 1970, dégageant l'accentuation de la minorisation de la population wallonne et la perspective à court terme d'une diminution démographique.Affirmant la fausse alternative entre une solution d'arrêt à l'échelon planétaire et une relance dans le cas wallon, l'auteur qualifie d'utopique une solution mondiale stationnaire.Revenant au problème wallon, l'article comporte une analyse de l'évolution des structures et dégage des traits d'une politique basée sur un redressement modéré de la natalité et sur l'intégration de la population étrangère résidant dans la région. L'article se termine par un parallèle avec la situation du Québec, en soulignant que les deux populations, québécoise et wallonne, se ressemblent par leur comportement démographique naturel et ne diffèrent plus pour l'essentiel que par leur structure., This study examines the demographic perspectives of Wallony, the French language region of Belgium. It identifies the problem of zero growth of the population when compared to world trends and seeks to evaluate a policy of stationary evolution. The analysis concludes with a comparison of Wallony and Québec.Initially, the author examines the exponential growth of world population and involves the notions of Malthus and the more recent concepts of the « Limits to Growth » movement. He then looks at the evolution of he population of Wallony since the înde- pendance of Belgium until the most recent census year, 1970. The relative decline of the Wallon population is highlighted.Accepting as false the alternatives of a stoppage or slowing of growth at the planetary scale or a take-off at the level of Wallony, the author qualifies the « stationary solution » as utopie.At the scale of Wallony, the article analyses the evolution of the demographic structure and identifies characteristics of a policy based upon a moderate increase of birth rates and upon the integration of foreign elements residing within the population. The study draws a parallel with the situation in Québec, emphasizing that the two populations resemble each other with respect to natural processes but differ with respect to demographic structure.

The extraordinary urban growth that characterises the whole ofAfrica is accompanied by the progressive emergence ofmegacities and by the reorganisation ofurban networks. This urbanisation is nevertheless affected by the weakness ofthe lowerand intermediate levels, which hampers the diversification oflocal economies. This is the challenge for territorial development..

International audience

International audience

Texte accessible à l'adresse suivante : http://www.nepad.org/system/files/WEB%20-%20Atlas%20NEPAD_English%20version_May%202013%20148.pdf; International audience; A part from its northern and southern edges. Africa remains predominantly rural and the number of people living in the countryside will continue to grow well beyond 2050 - a global exception. The densification ofthe population andimprovements in communications are nevertheless producing lifestyle and regional changes. Transforming this new rural context into a factor ofdevelopment is a major challenge for policy makers.

Sustained urban growth over the last 60 years has enabled Africa to narrow its urbanisation gap. But its urbanisation process reflects the uncertainties of its development path. Will the continent conform to the economicand urban transition pathways seen elsewhere, where the progression ofurbanisation accompanies economic development. or will we see a stagnation of "c1assicar urbanisation, which will/evel off under the effect ofthe permanence ofnatural resource-exporting countries?

International audience; Africa is a vast continent with an unevenly distributed population that has been growing considerably over the last 50 years, gradually correcting its population deficit. This growth dynamic produces greater potential for activity, which will need to be consolidated by the implementation of appropriate development policies.

International audience