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This paper analyzes changes in the expected demand for corn in the U.S., and it explores whether anticipatory signals of price jumps can be obtained from simple models. Two main objectives are considered. One is to estimate the relationship between the expected supply of corn and corresponding prices of futures contracts. We argue that such results can provide estimates of demand relationships and their shifts with the passage of time. Moreover, such analysis should allow us to test for possible changes in the structure of demand. A second, related objective is to demonstrate how such historical estimates can allow an analyst to appraise the futures markets’ quotes relative to forecasts from the historical model. We argue that the difference in the two prices may contain useful information.

We study consumer preferences for socially-responsible certified coffee based on alternative ways to distribute the price premium of the product. We use Becker, DeGroot, and Marschak (BDM) auctions in an experimental setting to elicit consumer willingness to pay for two socially-responsible certified coffee systems: the existing Fair Trade and a hypothetical certification called Sustainable Trade. These certification schemes differ in the way the price premium is given to producers. In the Fair Trade certifications growers receive a cash transfer whereas in the Sustainable Trade certification a portion of the premium is allocated to a social project in the grower’s community. We segment consumers as donors and non-donors and show that individuals who donate have strong preferences for certification systems that support social projects relative no non-donors. We also find that consumer attitudes toward donating have a strong effect on their willingness to pay for certified coffee. This effect is higher for consumers that donate a higher part of their income to charities.