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Forecasting the short-term future energy demand in buildings and districts is a vital component towards the optimization of energy use and consequently the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. This paper explores artificial intelligence approaches applied to estimate the future heating load in a district heating system. A distinction is made within thisd work between a prediction and forecasting based approach; a comparison is then accomplished by applying each method with prominent Machine Learning and Deep Learning based algorithms to estimate the future heating demand over 6 h and 24 h ahead. This analysis used available data from a Canadian district heating system in Quebec and actual weather forecasts obtained from Canadian meteorological services. All models within this work applied a grid search in order to calibrate their respective hyperparameters. Results of this work indicated that the prediction-based approach (with forecasted inputs) obtained a higher accuracy than the forecasting approach. All the machine learning models obtained good accuracy with errors not exceeding 16% CV(RMSE) and closer to 10% CV(RMSE) for the top performing models. Furthermore, the LSTM and XGBoost were consistently among the top performing algorithms and provided good performance over a variety of hyperparameters. The biggest difference between the two algorithms was the computational times; it was observed that the XGBoost was significantly faster to train. • Artificial Intelligence models are investigated to forecast district heating demand. • Prediction and forecasting based approaches are compared. • Model performance is estimated using accuracy, training time and stability. • The prediction approach using forecasted inputs shows slightly better results. • LSTM and XGBoost models outperform other techniques with an error of 11%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the application of a deep learning based model for the short-term forecasting of the electric demand in a heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system (HVAC) for the demand response programs of utility companies. The deep learning model is applied through two different approaches comparing their merits. The approaches consist of: (i) a monolithic approach that applies a single large model to forecast the target variables, and (ii) a sequential approach that consists of multiple deep learning models coupled together each targeting a specific energy load within the HVAC system. The model accuracy of both approaches is explored over two case studies applied to the same institutional building; however, the case studies differ in their data source. The first case study uses synthetic data obtained from an eQuest simulation, while the second case study uses measurement data obtained from the building automation system. Results show that the difference in forecasting error of these approaches is negligible; however, the monolithic approach required the least amount of calibration time. Next, this paper explores the application of off-site weather data applied to a building model calibrated with on-site data. The experiments demonstrated that the off-site weather data can be applied with a slight reduction in forecasting performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Buildings account for a significant portion of our overall energy usage and associated greenhouse gas emissions. With the increasing concerns regarding climate change, there are growing needs for energy reduction and increasing our energy efficiency. Forecasting energy use plays a fundamental role in building energy planning, management and optimization. The most common approaches for building energy forecasting include physics and data-driven models. Among the data-driven models, deep learning techniques have begun to emerge in recent years due to their: improved abilities in handling large amounts of data, feature extraction characteristics, and improved abilities in modelling nonlinear phenomena. This paper provides an extensive review of deep learning-based techniques applied to forecasting the energy use in buildings to explore its effectiveness and application potential. First, we present a summary of published literature reviews followed by an overview of deep learning-based definitions and techniques. Next, we present a breakdown of current trends identified in published research along with a discussion of how deep learning-based models have been applied for feature extraction and forecasting. Finally, the review concludes with current challenges faced and some potential future research directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]