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In recent years, deep learning (DL) has shown impressive performance in radiologic image analysis. However, for a DL model to be useful in a real-world setting, its confidence in a prediction must also be known. Each DL model's output has an estimated probability, and these estimated probabilities are not always reliable. Uncertainty represents the trustworthiness (validity) of estimated probabilities. The higher the uncertainty, the lower the validity. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods determine the uncertainty level of each prediction. Predictions made without UQ methods are generally not trustworthy. By implementing UQ in medical DL models, users can be alerted when a model does not have enough information to make a confident decision. Consequently, a medical expert could reevaluate the uncertain cases, which would eventually lead to gaining more trust when using a model. This review focuses on recent trends using UQ methods in DL radiologic image analysis within a conceptual framework. Also discussed in this review are potential applications, challenges, and future directions of UQ in DL radiologic image analysis., (© RSNA, 2023.)

Background: Whole-body low-dose CT is the recommended initial imaging modality to evaluate bone destruction as a result of multiple myeloma. Accurate interpretation of these scans to detect small lytic bone lesions is time intensive. A functional deep learning) algorithm to detect lytic lesions on CTs could improve the value of these CTs for myeloma imaging. Our objectives were to develop a DL algorithm and determine its performance at detecting lytic lesions of multiple myeloma., Methods: Axial slices (2-mm section thickness) from whole-body low-dose CT scans of subjects with biochemically confirmed plasma cell dyscrasias were included in the study. Data were split into train and test sets at the patient level targeting a 90%/10% split. Two musculoskeletal radiologists annotated lytic lesions on the images with bounding boxes. Subsequently, we developed a two-step deep learning model comprising bone segmentation followed by lesion detection. Unet and "You Look Only Once" (YOLO) models were used as bone segmentation and lesion detection algorithms, respectively. Diagnostic performance was determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC)., Results: Forty whole-body low-dose CTs from 40 subjects yielded 2193 image slices. A total of 5640 lytic lesions were annotated. The two-step model achieved a sensitivity of 91.6% and a specificity of 84.6%. Lesion detection AUROC was 90.4%., Conclusion: We developed a deep learning model that detects lytic bone lesions of multiple myeloma on whole-body low-dose CTs with high performance. External validation is required prior to widespread adoption in clinical practice., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to International Skeletal Society (ISS).)