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We propose a novel approach, which we call machine learning strategy identification (MLSI), to uncovering hidden decision strategies. In this approach, we first train machine learning models on choice and process data of one set of participants who are instructed to use particular strategies, and then use the trained models to identify the strategies employed by a new set of participants. Unlike most modeling approaches that need many trials to identify a participant's strategy, MLSI can distinguish strategies on a trial-by-trial basis. We examined MLSI's performance in three experiments. In Experiment I, we taught participants three different strategies in a paired-comparison decision task. The best machine learning model identified the strategies used by participants with an accuracy rate above 90%. In Experiment II, we compared MLSI with the multiple-measure maximum likelihood (MM-ML) method that is also capable of integrating multiple types of data in strategy identification, and found that MLSI had higher identification accuracy than MM-ML. In Experiment III, we provided feedback to participants who made decisions freely in a task environment that favors the non-compensatory strategy take-the-best. The trial-by-trial results of MLSI show that during the course of the experiment, most participants explored a range of strategies at the beginning, but eventually learned to use take-the-best. Overall, the results of our study demonstrate that MLSI can identify hidden strategies on a trial-by-trial basis and with a high level of accuracy that rivals the performance of other methods that require multiple trials for strategy identification., (© 2022. The Psychonomic Society, Inc.)

IRTree models decompose observed rating responses into sequences of theory-based decision nodes, and they provide a flexible framework for analysing trait-related judgements and response styles. However, most previous applications of IRTree models have been limited to binary decision nodes that reflect qualitatively distinct and unidimensional judgement processes. The present research extends the family of IRTree models for the analysis of response styles to ordinal judgement processes for polytomous decisions and to multidimensional parametrizations of decision nodes. The integration of ordinal judgement processes overcomes the limitation to binary nodes, and it allows researchers to test whether decisions reflect qualitatively distinct response processes or gradual steps on a joint latent continuum. The extension to multidimensional node models enables researchers to specify multiple judgement processes that simultaneously affect the decision between competing response options. Empirical applications highlight the roles of extreme and midpoint response style in rating judgements and show that judgement processes are moderated by different response formats. Model applications with multidimensional decision nodes reveal that decisions among rating categories are jointly informed by trait-related processes and response styles., (© 2019 The British Psychological Society.)

Every decision we take is accompanied by a characteristic pattern of response delay, gaze position, pupil dilation, and neural activity. Nevertheless, many models of social decision making neglect the corresponding process tracing data and focus exclusively on the final choice outcome. Here, we argue that this is a mistake, as the use of process data can help to build better models of human behavior, create better experiments, and improve policy interventions. Specifically, such data allow us to unlock the "black box" of the decision process and evaluate the mechanisms underlying our social choices. Using these data, we can directly validate latent model variables, arbitrate between competing personal motives, and capture information processing strategies. These benefits are especially valuable in social science, where models must predict multi-faceted decisions that are taken in varying contexts and are based on many different types of information. This article is categorized under: Economics > Interactive Decision-Making Neuroscience > Cognition Psychology > Reasoning and Decision Making., (© 2021 Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Publication bias is a well-known threat to the validity of meta-analyses and, more broadly, the reproducibility of scientific findings. When policies and recommendations are predicated on an incomplete evidence base, it undermines the goals of evidence-based decision-making. Great strides have been made in the last 50 years to understand and address this problem, including calls for mandatory trial registration and the development of statistical methods to detect and correct for publication bias. We offer an historical account of seminal contributions by the evidence synthesis community, with an emphasis on the parallel development of graph-based and selection model approaches. We also draw attention to current innovations and opportunities for future methodological work., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

ChatGPT is expected to have significant implications for trip planning from a traveler's perspective. ChatGPT has the potential to be a revolutionary search tool, enabling travelers to bypass an often complicated and disturbing process with a simple conversation with ChatGPT. This research aimed to explain the impact of ChatGPT on travelers' trip planning behavior; specifically, it examined how travelers perceive ChatGPT when they narrow down multiple travel options. Based on the choice overload effect, we conducted five experimental studies to determine the negative effect of reducing options from the initial recommendations using ChatGPT. The results showed the importance of a hybrid decision-making process involving both humans and ChatGPT. Using our empirical results, we provide significant theoretical and practical implications for travelers' trip planning behavior incorporating ChatGPT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In today's digitally driven landscape, people face an ever-expanding array of choices, potentially leading to choice overload or "The choice paradox." This phenomenon arises when the abundance of options overwhelms decision-making processes, causing dissatisfaction and increased difficulty in reaching a decision. To address this challenge, recommender systems, or recommendation agents, have emerged as tools designed to assist users in navigating the complex world of choices. Understanding the effectiveness of these systems in alleviating choice overload is crucial given their widespread use across various domains. This review aims to explore the extent to which recommender systems effectively mitigate choice overload and the factors contributing to their efficacy by consolidating available evidence. A systematic search on Scopus and Google Scholar was conducted, analyzing relevant texts that met specific eligibility criteria to comprehensively explore the topic. Eleven studies were selected from the pool to create a comprehensive overview of the existing literature. The findings underscore the complexities of assessing the impact of recommendation systems on choice difficulty. This complexity arises from the recognition that various variables, extending beyond system design to include user personal traits and decision contexts, can influence the effectiveness of recommendation agents. This scoping review emphasizes the need for further studies to truly understand the influence of recommender systems on users' decision-making processes. As a result, this review aims to provide a pivotal overview of current domain knowledge, paving the way for future research and insights to enhance decision-making in the face of the challenge of choice overload. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number of candidates running in U.S. primary elections is increasing. Contested primary elections force voters to decide between candidates that share party labels and are ideologically similar. Similar to contexts of non-partisan elections, an increase in the number of candidates should exacerbate the cognitive demand of voting in primary elections. We expect large candidate fields in primaries make voters (1) spend less time looking at each candidate profile, (2) more likely to abstain, (3) more likely to vote based on ballot position, and (4) more likely to feel overwhelmed with the decision. All four of these expectations were preregistered. We test the effect of large candidate fields on voter behavior using a survey experiment (n = 2000) fielded by YouGov. We find large candidate fields cause respondents to spend less time looking at candidate profiles, to select candidates in the first half of the ballot, and to feel overwhelmed by the decision-making process. In contrast to our expectations, we find large candidate fields make respondents less likely to abstain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Important decisions are often complex, and existing evidence suggests that complexity can affect economic behavior. It is an open question, however, exactly when and how complexity matters. We hypothesize that salient cues—standing out in the choice context—mitigate the effect of complexity on choices. We theoretically develop and experimentally test this hypothesis in the context of portfolio selection. We find that, in both simple and complex problems, subjects seek highly right-skewed portfolios, which have an extreme and salient upside, and avoid highly left-skewed portfolios with an extreme and salient downside. Complexity does affect, however, choices among symmetric portfolios, which have neither a salient upside nor downside. Absent a salient cue, subjects diversify naively. Evidence on response times and memory supports our salience-based explanation. This paper was accepted by Ilia Tsetlin, behavioral economics and decision analysis. Funding: Financial support by the German Research Foundation ([Grant 404416232] for M. Dertwinkel-Kalt and [Grant 235577387/GRK1974] for M. Köster) is gratefully acknowledged. Supplemental Material: The data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.00652. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vaccine hesitancy, a complex behavioral phenomenon, poses a significant global health threat and has gained renewed attention amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper scrutinized peer-reviewed literature on vaccine hesitancy published from 2015 to 2022, with a specific focus on behavioral perspectives, utilizing a Theories-Constructs-Variables-Contexts-Methods (TCVCM) framework. The study highlighted prominent theoretical approaches, abstract concepts, research variables, global contexts and academic techniques employed across a selected sample of 138 studies. The result is a consolidated overview of research and schematization of the factors influencing vaccine hesitancy and vaccination behaviors. These include individual-level, contextual, vaccine-specific, organizational, and public-policy-related dynamics. The findings corroborated the complexity of vaccine hesitancy and emphasized the difficulties of pursuing vaccine advocacy. The analysis also identified several directions for future research, and the need to conduct more contextual studies in low- and middle-income nations to bring out the cross-cultural nuances of vaccine hesitancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context shapes how we perceive choices and, therefore, how we decide between them. For instance, a large body of literature on the "framing effect" demonstrates that people become more risk-seeking when choices are framed in terms of losses. Despite this research, it remains unknown how people make choices between contexts and how these choices affect subsequent decision making. To address these questions, we designed the Frame Selection Task (FST). On each trial in the FST, participants first choose how risky and safe options are framed, either in terms of gains or losses, and then select between them. We found that participants exhibited frame preferences, with a predominant preference for the gain frame, and that they were willing to incur costs to select options within their preferred frame. Moreover, participants selected frames that aligned with their risk preferences: people with stronger risk aversion displayed a stronger gain-frame preference. These results demonstrate how people choose between contexts and that they can combine these preferences with cognitive biases to facilitate decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper develops an evidence-based conceptual framework for exploring the applicability of choice architecture in business relationships. Design/methodology/approach: Empirical studies of choice architecture in various fields are systematically reviewed to identify choice architecture techniques; major resulting categories of techniques are then discussed for applicability to business relationship contexts, and avenues for research are outlined. Findings: Managerial decision-making is potentially influenced by changes to choice contexts that (1 provide additional information from outside the choice context, (2) facilitate a particular way of comparing options, (3) present options in new ways, (4) rework the choice set, e.g. by adding options and (5) create internal states that push toward a target choice. Originality/value: The paper introduces the concept of choice architecture to business relationships. It develops a taxonomy of choice architecture techniques to guide the exploration of choice architecture effects in business relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Voters, like consumers, experience choice overload when presented with too many similar options. The literature on consumer behavior finds overwhelmed consumers often opt out of making a decision altogether. Yet, how large candidate fields affect American voter behavior remains unexplored. I use an aggregate-level analysis leveraging exogenous changes to Louisiana's electoral institutions and an individual-level analysis to investigate the effect of varying quantities of choice on ballot rolloff in U.S. House elections. Ballot rolloff is the phenomenon where voters turn out to vote, yet abstain in a given election. I find that an electoral institution that incentivizes candidate entry causes 5.7–7.1 percent more ballot rolloff, and also that individuals are more likely to rolloff when there are more candidates running in their House election. Louisiana is simply the best case to explore a phenomenon that is likely occurring in party primaries throughout the U.S.—choice overload at the ballot box. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study utilized eye-tracking techniques to investigate decision-making behavior in intertemporal loss scenarios under both time pressure and no time pressure conditions. Results revealed shorter decision-making times and decreased large later (LL) option selection frequency under time pressure. Participants under time pressure exhibited reduced Mean Fixation Duration (MFD) and Search Measure (SM) values, indicating altered information processing. Mediation analyses confirmed that task choice outcomes were influenced by SM and MFD, suggesting a shift towards heuristic decision-making under time pressure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To improve the validity of self-report measures, researchers should control for response style (RS) effects, which can be achieved with IRTree models. A traditional IRTree model considers a response as a combination of distinct decision-making processes, where the substantive trait affects the decision on response direction, while decisions about choosing the middle category or extreme categories are largely determined by midpoint RS (MRS) and extreme RS (ERS). One limitation of traditional IRTree models is the assumption that all respondents utilize the same set of RS in their response strategies, whereas it can be assumed that the nature and the strength of RS effects can differ between individuals. To address this limitation, we propose a mixture multidimensional IRTree (MM-IRTree) model that detects heterogeneity in response strategies. The MM-IRTree model comprises four latent classes of respondents, each associated with a different set of RS traits in addition to the substantive trait. More specifically, the class-specific response strategies involve (1) only ERS in the "ERS only" class, (2) only MRS in the "MRS only" class, (3) both ERS and MRS in the "2RS" class, and (4) neither ERS nor MRS in the "0RS" class. In a simulation study, we showed that the MM-IRTree model performed well in recovering model parameters and class memberships, whereas the traditional IRTree approach showed poor performance if the population includes a mixture of response strategies. In an application to empirical data, the MM-IRTree model revealed distinct classes with noticeable class sizes, suggesting that respondents indeed utilize different response strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Consumers often face uncertainty in decision-making while assessing options presented as attribute-bundles as they are unable to assess their utility. This confusion is exacerbated by the presence of a "decoy," or an inferior option, which leads to the phenomenon of attraction effect, while the presence of an equally attractive alternative leads to the compromise effect. In this study, we show that if functional attribute values are converted into ratings on a common scale, consumers do not depend on attribute-based processing but choose an option by considering appropriate attribute-bundles based on the attribute ratings. This shift in decision-making process attenuates both attraction and compromise effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thurstonian forced-choice modeling is considered to be a powerful new tool to estimate item and person parameters while simultaneously testing the model fit. This assessment approach is associated with the aim of reducing faking and other response tendencies that plague traditional self-report trait assessments. As a result of major recent methodological developments, the estimation of normative trait scores has become possible in addition to the computation of only ipsative scores. This opened up the important possibility of comparisons between individuals with forced-choice assessment procedures. With item response theory (IRT) methods, a multidimensional forced-choice (MFC) format has also been proposed to estimate individual scores. Customarily, items to assess different traits are presented in blocks, often triplets, in applications of the MFC, which is an efficient form of item presentation but also a simplification of the original models. The present study provides a comprehensive review of the present status of Thurstonian forced-choice models and their variants. Critical features of the current models, especially the block models, are identified and discussed. It is concluded that MFC modeling with item blocks is highly problematic and yields biased results. In particular, the often-recommended presentation of blocks with items that are keyed in different directions of a trait proves to be counterproductive considering the goal to reduce response tendencies. The consequences and implications of the highlighted issues are further discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main theme behind this study was to identify the factors that generate the representative bias phenomenon among individuals as because of this phenomenon people usually make irrational buying decisions. Representative bias, sometimes referred to as the representativeness heuristic, is when we base our conclusions or judgments on how individuals or circumstances conform to a specific prototype or stereotype. Representative bias causes individual to categorize a situation on the basis of a pattern of earlier practices or opinions regarding the situation. It can be valuable when trying to make a rapid decision but it can also be restraining as it leads to close-mindedness for instance in stereotypes. For this study, semi-structured discussions with the professional people of major cities of Pakistan who are habitual in terms of shopping, and then reconfirm the answers by matching with existing literature and apply NVivo on their brief results to get a word-cloud for presuming the sure antecedents of representative bias, and check the context and content validity of the established scale by approving the scale subsequently the authorization of 5 language and 5 market experts. A self-developed semi-structured scale was used for data collection. The main population for this study was the professional people of major cities of Punjab who are habitual in terms of shopping. The conclusion of the study demonstrates that "choice of alternatives, environmental fluctuations, & own perception" are the variables that strongly generates the representative bias phenomenon in any individual. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Literature reported mixed evidence on whether active exploration benefits spatial knowledge acquisition over passive exploration. Active spatial learning typically involves at least physical control of one's movement or navigation decision-making, while passive participants merely observe during exploration. To quantify the effects of active exploration in learning large-scale, unfamiliar environments, we analysed previous findings with the multi-level meta-analytical model. Potential moderators were identified and examined for their contributions to the variability in effect sizes. Of the 128 effect sizes retrieved from 33 experiments, we observed a small to moderate advantage of active exploration over passive observation. Important moderators include gender composition, decision-making, types of spatial knowledge, and matched visual information. We discussed the implications of the results along with the limitations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Affective decision‐making is a decision process with significant and strong emotional consequences marked by meaningful rewards and losses. Previous studies found inconsistent results regarding whether trait anxiety hinders affective decision‐making. Also, previous studies also proved that people with lower cognitive reflection were less likely to exhibit better performance in decision‐making when compared with higher cognition reflection individuals. Using the risk‐as‐feeling hypothesis, which explicitly postulates an interaction between cognitive and affective processes in people's decision‐making, we explore whether cognitive reflection moderates the relationship between trait anxiety and affective decision‐making. Participants (N = 261) completed the standardized version of the Iowa Gambling Task, which is widely used to assess affective decision‐making, Trait Anxiety Inventory, numerical cognitive reflection test (numerical CRT), and verbal cognitive reflection test (CRT‐V). The results showed that cognitive reflection measured by the numerical CRT rather than the CRT‐V moderated the relationship between trait anxiety and affective decision‐making. Specifically, individuals with lower cognitive reflection exhibited a negative association between trait anxiety and affective decision‐making, whereas individuals with higher cognitive reflection did not exhibit a relationship between trait anxiety and cognitive reflection. The present study helps to explain how cognitive reflection and trait anxiety interact in affective decision‐making and provides guidance targeting individuals with higher trait anxiety to improve their numerical cognitive reflection ability and better address their affective decision‐making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a computer-based, information acquisition process tracing task (MouselabWEB), participants (N = 100) were presented with varying types and amounts of information and were tasked with choosing a mental health professional (MHP). Results of this lab-based study indicated that the tendency to engage in heuristically-driven decision-making process increases as MHP choice and cognitive burden increases. When MHP choices are limited, participants tend to acquire information on MHP's age, treatment orientation, education, and years of experience. As MHP choices increase, MHP gender and ethnicity information were utilized the most, and education and years of experience utilized the least. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

consumers with an increasing number of choices. This phenomenon, known as choice overload, often overwhelms individuals and leads them to abandon their purchase, delay their decision, or opt for simpler choices. This study contributes to the literature on choice overload by focusing on two services (i.e. hotels and telecommunication plans) and exploring the mediating role of decision strategy complexity on subjective states and behavioral outcomes. Methods: This study applies an experimental approach with a 2 (large vs small choice set) by 2 (hotels vs telecommunication programs) factorial design being developed and applied to a sample of 220 Belgians. Results: Results show that the complexity of the strategy used by decision-makers may play a mediating role on the consequences that a choice set size may have in terms of psychological and behavioral responses. Implications: Marketers should try to better understand which decision strategy best fits into their market target in order to fix the choice set accordingly. Moreover, they should also fix a choice architecture, such as a tournament-style choice architecture, that can enable choice set to remain large while reducing the effect of choice overload. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to investigate how the number of choices affects regret in the context of multiple-choice questions. We hypothesized that regret would be stronger when people failed on a question with fewer choices than when they failed on a question with more choices, and that the effect of choice would be mediated by perceived closeness to success. In both Experiment 1 (a scenario experiment) and Experiment 2 (a laboratory experiment), participants rated the degree to which they experienced regret when they failed to choose the correct answer option in a quiz with a prize. The number of alternatives presented in the quiz was manipulated (2 vs. 8). The results showed that in both experiments, a failure when choosing from a small number of alternatives produced more regret than when choosing from a larger number of alternatives. However, no mediating effect of perceived closeness to success was observed. The effect of the number of choices on regret was discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deciding to trade in financial markets is psychologically difficult and wearing. Investors want to find rational justifications for the correctness of their decisions. However, there is uncertainty in financial markets. This uncertainty does not allow for mathematical calculations. In such case, feelings get involved in the decision process. This study aimed to investigate the mediating effect of two motivational systems (loss aversion and pleasure-seeking) on the effect of phantasy, which is fantasies that are based on an individual's early infancy, that develop and exist throughout life, but are not consciously aware of by the individual, on financial risk tolerance, and to analyze the moderating effect of confidence in the effect of these two motivational systems on financial risk tolerance. Data were collected from 1,643 subjects from Turkey in November–December 2021 using a questionnaire. The link to the survey prepared by the researchers was created using Google Survey and shared by our graduates' students on their social networks. According to the results, phantasy had a positive and significant effect on both motivational systems and financial risk tolerance. Simultaneously, two motivational systems have a mediating effect on the relationship between phantasy and financial risk tolerance. Confidence, on the other hand, has a moderating effect on the effect of these two motivational systems on financial risk tolerance. In addition, as expected, phantasy showed its effect on all individuals without differing according to demographic variables. Despite this, loss aversion and low financial risk tolerance were higher in female and married individuals. While pleasure-seeking is higher in males, it does not differ according to marital status. Modeling unconscious processes, motivational systems and individual characteristics such as confidence together will provide important and useful findings for both investors and market authority in terms of showing the effect of unconscious and cognitive factors on financial risk tolerance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social decisions often require individuals to balance conflicts between their own selfish interests and the need for equality. The way information about available options is presented can have an impact on how people process information and make social decisions. In this study, we examined the effect of information presentation on social decisions in a mini‐dictator game, where participants must make binary choices about how to allocate money between themselves and another participant. We conducted two tasks with different presentation styles: the attribute‐based task, where attributes such as own payoffs or others' payoffs were displayed sequentially, and the alternative‐based task, where alternatives were displayed sequentially. We found that participants in the attribute‐based task made more selfish choices and were less sensitive to equality than those in the alternative‐based task. The direction of information search and the complexity level of information processing played a mediating role in the effect of task on social decisions. Our findings highlight the relationship between information search and social decisions, shedding light on the mechanisms and processes that underlie social decision‐making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigating decision making with two‐alternative forced choice (2AFC) tasks may artificially constrain decisions, especially in the moral domain where we may want to express nuance. We aimed at examining whether paradigm constraints—that is, binary (as in 2AFC tasks) versus continuous response mode—constrained early decision‐making dynamics, as traceable in mouse movements. In the moral domain, long sentences are often used, and we therefore developed a new mouse‐tracking design adapted to long‐to‐process stimuli while also introducing mouse‐tracking‐compatible continuous response scales. Two preregistered studies, with adapted (Study 1) and newly designed (Study 2) mouse‐tracking paradigms tested how trajectories differed between response modes from an early stage onwards. Overall, findings provide evidence consistent with hypothesis, ruling out alternative explanations in terms of motor planning, hence questioning the prevalence of 2AFC tasks in decision‐making research. Discussion further focuses on paradigmatic challenges addressed by the present research and basic contributions regarding the bidirectional influences between ongoing actions and decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Consumers frequently use mobile phones in a store to search for external information as an alternative to consulting with frontline employees. Mobile phone usage is especially prevalent among young consumers. Drawing on qualitative study results and existing literature, we conceptualize the effects of different in‐store information sources on choice overload, responsibility, and confidence among young consumers, as well as the moderating role of product category knowledge. A field experiment suggests that when knowledge is low, consulting with frontline employees (vs. mobile phone) leads to lower choice overload and, consequently, increases choice confidence. When knowledge is high, these beneficial effects are attenuated. At the same time, young consumers perceive greater choice responsibility when their phone is the information source; however, this does not influence choice confidence. This work contributes to extant literature by extending the knowledge of customer experience at the point of sale, the role of technology usage in in‐store retailing, and the role of frontline employees as an information source. It also provides managerial implications for retailers by highlighting the importance of providing an opportunity for an in‐person frontline employee interaction especially when customers have low product category knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many decision makers are thought to economize on attention by processing information at the simpler level of a category. We directly test whether such category focus reflects an adaptive response to attention constraints, in five preregistered experiments using an information sampling paradigm with mouse tracking. Consistent with rational principles, participants focus more on category-level information when individual differences are small, when the category contains more members, and when time constraints are more severe. Participants are sensitive to the statistical structure of the category even when it must be learned from experience, and they respond to a latent shift in this structure. Beliefs about category members tend to cluster together more when category focus is high—a key element of rational inattention. However, this is counteracted by greater weight placed on salient and idiosyncratic information when the category is large. Our results broadly substantiate influential theories of categorical thinking, giving us a clearer view on the drivers and consequences of inattention. This paper was accepted by Marie Claire Villeval, behavioral economics and decision analysis. Funding: This work was supported by the Office of Naval Research (N00014-21-1-2170), the Pershing Square Fund for Research on the Foundations of Human Behavior, and an NWO Vidi grant (VI.Vidi.201.059). Supplemental Material: The data files and online appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4803. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do people know their own risk preferences, or do risk choices change with experience and observation? We provide a straightforward test in the laboratory. People make an initial decision concerning a lottery choice and then experience 24 unpaid practice periods in which they roll the dice, record the outcome, and record the would-be payoff. They then make a final decision for the lottery choice; one of the first and last periods is randomly chosen for payment. Our primary hypothesis is that people will become less risk-averse by having made and experienced the practice rolls. We do find that people are significantly more likely to become less risk-averse than more risk-averse over time. We note that this move towards assuming increased risk goes in the opposite direction from what is at least arguably predicted by loss aversion and reference dependence. We find that women's preferences change much less during a session than men's preferences change. We feel that our literally hands-on approach ensures a degree of engagement that helps to accelerate the learning process. We argue that measures obtained after people have had experience with a mechanism are more meaningful, and that this principle might well extend more generally to other elicitation tasks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, the online environment is extra information-rich and allows companies to offer and receive more and more options and opportunities in multiple areas. Thus, decision-makers have abundantly available alternatives to choose from the best one or rank from the most to the least preferred. However, in the multicriteria decision-making field, most tools support a limited number of alternatives with as narrow criteria as possible. Decision-makers are forced to apply a screening or filtering method to reduce the size of the problem, which will slow down the process and eliminate some potential alternatives from the rest of the decision-making process. Implementing MCDM methods in high-performance parallel and distributed computing environments becomes crucial to ensure the scalability of multicriteria decision-making solutions in Big Data contexts, where one can consider a vast number of alternatives, each being described on the basis of a number of criteria. In this context, we consider TOPSIS one of the most widely used MCDM methods. We present a parallel implementation of TOPSIS based on the MapReduce paradigm. This solution will reduce the response time of the decision-making process and facilitate the analysis of the robustness and sensitivity of the method in a high-dimension problem at a reasonable response time. Three multicriteria analysis problems were evaluated to show the proposed approach's computational efficiency and performance. All experiments are carried out within GCP's Dataproc, a service allowing the execution of Apache Hadoop and Spark tasks in Google Cloud. The results of the tests obtained are very significant and promising. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

People tend to prefer a wide range of options, even if it requires more effort to make a decision. The digital environment provides a variety of choices, and people may encounter anxiety when they face such uncertain choices. This study conducted two experiments to examine the effects of trait and state anxiety on the phenomenon of choice overload in the digital environment. Choice deferral served as a measure of choice overload. The results suggested that individuals with high trait/state anxiety were more likely to delay choices when presented with a larger choice set. Anxiety moderated the effect of choice set on choice overload, while choice difficulty played a mediating role. Our results provided insight into the mechanism of choice overload and suggested solutions such as altering the information presentation, to reduce choice overload and assist individuals in making informed decisions. These findings also highlighted the destructive effects of state anxiety on decision making and the necessity of keeping individuals relaxed when making decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a great deal of uncertainty in the world. One common source of uncertainty results from incomplete or missing information about probabilistic outcomes (i.e., outcomes that may occur), which influences how people make decisions. The impact of this type of uncertainty may particularly pronounced for older adults, who, as the primary leaders around the world, make highly impactful decisions with lasting outcomes. This review examines the ways in which uncertainty about probabilistic outcomes is perceived, handled, and represented in the aging brain, with an emphasis on how uncertainty may specifically affect decision making in later life. We describe the role of uncertainty in decision making and aging from four perspectives, including 1) theoretical, 2) self-report, 3) behavioral, and 4) neuroscientific. We report evidence of any age-related differences in uncertainty among these contexts and describe how these changes may affect decision making. We then integrate the findings across the distinct perspectives, followed by a discussion of important future directions for research on aging and uncertainty, including prospection, domain-specificity in risk-taking behaviors, and choice overload. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We discuss issues in interpreting the results from mood induction experiments. In most cases, only small absolute changes in moods were induced, even though the effect sizes that compare the difference from the baseline are quite large. The balance of positive to negative moods was usually positive regardless of the mood manipulation and the measure used, meaning that even in negative mood inductions, people are often in a slightly positive mood, albeit less positive than before. These findings help bring the experimental findings in line with studies of long-term mood, where mild positive moods are sometimes more strongly associated with beneficial outcomes than stronger positive moods. It is possible that some of the benefits attributed to negative moods based on the experimental studies are in fact benefits of lower levels of positive moods. Recommendations are made to strengthen the inferences drawn from mood induction experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research designed three experiments to investigate the mechanism of how imagery perspective influences decision difficulty, which increases consumers' willingness to postpone making choices based on the construal level. Studies 1, 2, and 3 demonstrated that imagining from the actor's perspective lowers one's construal level, and thus leads to greater decision difficulty and willingness to postpone making choices. In comparison, those taking the observer perspective represent things at higher construal levels and have less difficulty making decisions or willingness to postpone making choices. Moreover, the derived results showed the need for cognition to moderate the relationship between imagery perspective and construal level. The findings herein extended the physical buying situation to online consumption, providing implications for marketers to further explore consumer behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Item response tree (IRTree) models are theorized to extract response styles from self-report data by utilizing multidimensional item response theory (IRT) models based on theoretical decision processes. Despite the growing popularity of the IRTree framework, there has been little research that has systematically examined the ability of its most popular models to recover item parameters across sample size and test length. This Monte Carlo simulation study explored the ability of IRTree models to recover item parameters based on data created from the midpoint primary process model. Results indicate the IRTree model can adequately recover item parameters early in the decision process model, specifically the midpoint node. However, as the model progresses through the decision hierarchy, item parameters have increased associated error variance. The authors ultimately recommend caution when employing the IRTree framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives This research addresses how younger and older adults' decisions and evaluations of gains and losses are affected by the way in which monetary incentives are provided. We compared 2 common incentive schemes in decision making: pay one (only a single decision is incentivized) and pay all (incentives across all decisions are accumulated). Method Younger adults (18–36 years; n = 147) and older adults (60–89 years; n = 139) participated in either a pay-one or pay-all condition and made binary choices between two-outcome monetary lotteries in gain, loss, and mixed domains. We analyzed participants' decision quality, risk taking, and psychometric test scores. Computational modeling of cumulative prospect theory served to measure sensitivity to outcomes and probabilities, loss aversion, and choice sensitivity. Results Decision quality and risk aversion were higher in the gain than mixed or loss domain, but unaffected by age. Loss aversion was higher, and choice sensitivity was lower in older than younger adults. In the pay-one condition, the value functions were more strongly curved, and choice sensitivity was higher than in the pay-all condition. Discussion An opportunity of accumulating incentives has similar portfolio effects on younger and older adults' decisions. In general, people appear to decide less cautiously in pay-all than pay-one scenarios. The impact of different incentive schemes should be carefully considered in aging and decision research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A psychology experiment examining decision-making on a continuum of subjectively equivalent alternatives (directions) revealed that subjects follow a common pattern, giving preference to just a few directions over all others. When restricted experimental settings made the common pattern unfeasible, subjects demonstrated no common choice preferences. In the latter case, the observed distribution of choices made by a group of subjects was close to normal. We conclude that the abundance of subjectively equivalent alternatives may reduce the individual variability of choices, and vice versa. Choice overload paradoxically results in behavior patterning and eventually facilitates decision predictability, while restricting the range of available options fosters individual variability of choice, reflected in almost random behavior across the group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The compromise effect exists where consumers show a disproportional preference for the option with intermediate attribute levels in a choice set. The effect has been widely observed in the literature. Other research has demonstrated the benefits of a product physically occupying a middle position, regardless of relative attribute levels. Both streams of research thus show that consumers' preferences are influenced by the display format of the choice set, with benefits accruing to the middle option. This research demonstrates that the compromise effect comprises both an attribute‐based and a position‐based component by disentangling these two effects. We demonstrate the coexistence of both components in a series of five experiments, including a field experiment, that systematically vary an option's position based on relative attribute levels and in terms of position. Existing literature on the compromise effect only to a limited extent accounts for this possibility, even though it has significant theoretical and practical relevance. While brands largely determine attribute levels, marketers/retailers can often determine a brand's display position. We also establish the moderating role of time pressure and find that the position component becomes more prominent when time is constrained while the attribute effect becomes more prominent when time is unconstrained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Addressing the demands of our aging society, technologies such as smart home systems enhance older adults' independence and enable them to live longer at home. Yet, older adults tend to avoid, delegate, or defer decisions, and smart home systems are rarely used by individuals over the age of 65. Drawing on research on choice overload and age labels, we investigate across four studies how the presentation of smart home systems can influence the decision‐making process of older adults ages 65+ by mitigating choice complexity and, consequently, choice avoidance. We argue that age‐framing of complex systems makes the choice options easier to process for older adults than does price‐framing, the current market standard. We find that age‐framing positively affects the rate of choice, and we identify reduced choice complexity as the underlying process. Our research further demonstrates that family members, as important co‐deciders, evaluate decisions made on age‐framed alternatives more positively, thus making it easier for older adults to justify their decisions. We thus contribute to research on the decision‐making of older adults in general and on age labels in particular, and we identify important practical implications for providers of high investment products for older adults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Security screeners identify targets from surveillance videos. Their performance can fluctuate as resolution or video content salience varies. Image spatial resolution may be degraded if a camera has low pixel density. Similarly, temporal resolution can be degraded due to transmission interference or low bandwidth. Both types of deteriorated resolution can increase observer uncertainty and reduce target identification accuracy. Further, these outcomes may reflect an interaction between target type and resolution. To help quantify, study, and explain possible interactions, we utilize process‐tracing methodology to understand the cognitive dynamics of surveillance decisions. These insights can improve the development of surveillance augmentation technologies and processes. Mouse tracking is a robust process‐tracing method successfully leveraged to observe continuously unfolding cognitive processes. Lateral vacillating mouse movements reflect decision uncertainty, and trajectory curvature serves measures cognitive conflict to select an unchosen alternative. We utilized mouse tracking to measure decision conflict during a video surveillance task with varying salience due to resolution or target type. Greater cognitive conflict was found when observers classified person‐related targets compared to vehicle‐related targets. Trajectories indicated stronger certainty when classifying events as having occurred, rather than when indicating events did not occur. Greater cognitive conflict was seen under degraded spatial resolution when observers were moderately confident compared to strongly confident or reported themselves as guessing. Under degraded temporal resolution, the greatest cognitive conflict occurred when observers reported they were guessing. Beyond these findings, we have demonstrated the viability of mouse tracking as an unobtrusive process‐tracing method for measuring uncertainty during realistic surveillance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maximizing is a topic that has received significant attention from researchers and corporate organizations alike. Although extensive previous research has explored how maximizers behave in a decision scenario, a fundamental question remains about why they prefer a larger assortment regardless of whether the decisions are important or not. This study attempts to explore the underlying mechanism of this phenomenon. Four surveys were conducted, and participants from Mturk or Credamo online platforms were recruited (N = 922). The maximizing tendency was measured by either maximization scale or maximizing tendency scale, and perceived importance and preference for a large assortment were measured in different decision scenarios. Across four studies, we find that maximizers perceive the same decision as more important than satisficers (Study 1), and perceived importance serves as the mechanism underlying the maximizers' preference for a large assortment (Study 2). In other words, in maximizers' perceptions and interpretations, even seemingly trivial decisions are important enough to spend great effort on a large assortment. We additionally identified a boundary condition for the effect – cost salience (Studies 3a and 3b). These findings illustrate a pioneering empirical exploration of the difference in the way maximizers and satisficers perceive their decision importance and the reason for maximizers' preference for a large assortment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present research investigates a novel relationship between travelers' childhood socioeconomic status (SES) and travel decision-making. We theorize that travelers from lower childhood SES or resource-scarce/unpredictable environments are more likely to avoid extreme options in a choice set. Five studies consistently show that childhood SES is negatively associated with extremeness aversion in diverse travel choices. We also demonstrate that the general risk tendency mediates the relationship between childhood SES and extremeness aversion in travel decision making (studies 3A and 3B). Lastly, we reveal that childhood SES is more likely to predict extremeness aversion when a choice set involves a quality–price trade-off rather than a quality–quality trade-off (study 4). This research introduces evolutionary aspects to explain pervasive behavioral tendencies in the context of travel and tourism and offers new insights to practitioners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contrary to the common view that more information is always better, too much information can damage decision quality. Building on existing literature, this study identified regulatory focus as a critical factor influencing the effect of information load (IL) on online consumer decisions and used event-related potentials (ERPs) to uncover its underlying neural mechanism. Behavioral data showed that promotion-focused participants would spend less time making purchasing decisions in the low IL condition than in the high IL condition. However, no significant difference was found for prevention-focused participants. In contrast to the high IL condition, ERP data indicated that the low IL condition recruited more attentional resources at the early stage of rapid automated processing (larger P2 component), leading to reduced long-term memory conflict (smaller N2 component), and resulting in enhanced decision confidence (larger P3 component) for those with a promotion focus. However, we observed either weakened or even opposite outcomes for those with a prevention focus. These findings generally shed light on when e-retailers should provide large/small amounts of product information in online environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Combining conceptual perspectives from emerging research on COVID-19, safety-seeking motivations, and extremeness aversion in choice (i.e., compromise effects), we examine how and why the perceived threat of COVID-19 affects consumers' choice and decision making in the hotel and restaurant domains. Across seven studies (two studies from secondary data sets and five experimental studies), we provide novel evidence that the perceived threat or threat salience of COVID-19 amplifies the general tendency to select compromise options, avoiding extreme ones, within a choice set. We highlight the role of safety-seeking motivations as the underlying mechanism in the relationship between perceived threat and extremeness aversion in choice. We further document a boundary condition that the extremeness aversion effect is stronger for leisure travelers than for business travelers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Online shoppers have a vast array of information available to aid their purchasing decisions (e.g., average user ratings, histograms of ratings). Past research is ambiguous regarding the degree to which shoppers try to simplify this information integration process. Some results suggest that customers will invest a substantial amount of time and effort into the decision process, while others suggest that customers prefer to keep the process as simple as possible and avoid extra effort. In the present study, we sought to examine the conditions under which people will use heuristic strategies versus more analytic ones. We found that the average user rating plays a large role in determining which strategy customers use to integrate product information into a purchasing decision. We show that people use a "binary bias"—assessing the relative number of "high" and "low" ratings and choosing items with the more favorable ratio—when products have a lackluster (~three‐star) average user rating. However, when average ratings are higher, customers instead use even simpler cues to make decisions. We also found evidence that individual differences in analytical thinking dispositions are associated with using more effortful information integration strategies. Thus, the present research suggests different strategies for displaying product information to customers depending on the average user ratings of the product and characteristics of the shoppers themselves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Every decision we take is accompanied by a characteristic pattern of response delay, gaze position, pupil dilation, and neural activity. Nevertheless, many models of social decision making neglect the corresponding process tracing data and focus exclusively on the final choice outcome. Here, we argue that this is a mistake, as the use of process data can help to build better models of human behavior, create better experiments, and improve policy interventions. Specifically, such data allow us to unlock the "black box" of the decision process and evaluate the mechanisms underlying our social choices. Using these data, we can directly validate latent model variables, arbitrate between competing personal motives, and capture information processing strategies. These benefits are especially valuable in social science, where models must predict multi‐faceted decisions that are taken in varying contexts and are based on many different types of information. This article is categorized under:Economics > Interactive Decision‐MakingNeuroscience > CognitionPsychology > Reasoning and Decision Making [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Every day, people make many food decisions without thinking, repeatedly falling for the unhealthy option instead of the healthy option. While making these mindless decisions, people often rely on heuristics. In this paper, we demonstrate that these heuristics can be exploited to nudge consumers towards healthy alternatives. Specifically, we explore how the attraction effect (i.e., adding a decoy to a choice set) can nudge people to choose a healthy snack. The results of our choice experiment indicate that adding a decoy (i.e., a less attractive food alternative) to a self-control situation (i.e., choosing between a healthy and an unhealthy food alternative) can help people maintain self-control and choose the healthy option. This mixed choice set thus nudges people towards the healthy option. Moreover, our results show differential effects of the attraction effect depending on the (un)healthiness of the products in the choice set. Specifically, the attraction effect is prominent when the choice set consists of unhealthy products only (i.e., the unhealthy choice set), but not in the choice set that consists of only healthy products (i.e., healthy choice set). Importantly, our results indicate when the attraction effect can exploit consumers' heuristics to help them make better, healthier food choices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Autistic people report difficulties with the demands of a neurotypical world, but little research has assessed the impact of the environment on such difficulties. We investigated the effect of ambient sounds on decision-making and heart rate variability. Adults without intellectual disability were allocated to autistic (n = 38) or neurotypical (n = 37) groups matched on age, intellectual functioning and self-reported gender. Participants completed a shopping decision-making task in three randomly ordered sound conditions: no sound, non-social shopping sound (e.g. fridges humming) and social shopping sound (e.g. people talking). Decision-making latency, decision-making consistency, and heart rate variability were measured. Participants also provided qualitative reports of their experiences. Qualitative analyses indicated that autistic participants experienced (1) the non-social and social sound conditions more negatively than the no sound condition and (2) the social sound condition more negatively than neurotypical participants. However, there were no statistically significant differences in decision-making latency, decision-making consistency, or heart rate variability across sound conditions and participant groups. Further research should consider alternative quantitative measures to explore subjective experience to help understand further which aspects of the environment autistic people are sensitive to, in turn, enabling more evidence-based autism-friendly changes to be made. Many autistic people report difficulties making decisions during everyday tasks, such as shopping. To examine the effect of sounds on decision-making, we developed a supermarket task where people watched a film shown from the shopper's perspective and were asked to make decisions between different products. The task was divided into three sections and participants completed each section in a different auditory environment: (1) no sounds, (2) non-social sounds (e.g. fridges humming) and (3) social sounds (e.g. people talking). Thirty-eight autistic and 37 neurotypical adults took part. We measured decision-making by examining how long it took to make a decision and how consistent people were with their decisions. We also measured heart rate variability because this biological response provides a measure of anxiety. After the supermarket shopping task, participants told us in their own words about their experiences. Autistic participants said that they found the non-social and social sound conditions more difficult than the no sound condition, and autistic participants found the social sound condition more negative than neurotypical participants. However, decision-making and heart rate variability were similar for autistic and neurotypical participants across the sound conditions, suggesting that these measures may not have been sensitive enough to reflect the experiences the autistic participants reported. Further research should consider alternative measures to explore the experiences reported by autistic people to help us understand which specific aspects of the environment autistic people are sensitive to. This, in turn, may enable more specific and evidence-based autism-friendly changes to be made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of the loss-gain context in human social decision-making remains heavily debated, with mixed evidence showing that losses (vs. gains) boost both selfish and prosocial motivations. Herein, we propose that the loss context, compared to the gain context, exacerbates intuitive reactions in response to the conflict between self-interest and prosocial preferences, regardless of whether those dominant responses are selfish or altruistic. We then synthesize evidence from three lines of research to support the account, which indicates that losses may either enhance or inhibit altruistic behaviors depending on the dominant responses in the employed interactive economic games, prosocial/proself traits, and the explicit engagement of deliberative processes. The current perspective contributes to the ongoing debate on the association between loss-gain context and human prosociality by putting forward a theoretical framework to integrate previous conflicting perspectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the advantages of e-retailers is their capability to provide a large amount of information to consumers. However, when the amount of information exceeds consumers' information processing capacities, it will lead to worse decision quality and experience, causing the information overload effect. In this study, the event-related potentials (ERPs) were applied to examine the hidden neural mechanism of the impact of information overload on consumers' decision processes. Behavioral data showed that people would spend more time making decisions when faced with information overload. Neurophysiologically, consumers would invest less attentional resources in the high amount of information (HAI) condition than those in the low amount of information (LAI) condition and lead to less positive P2 amplitudes. The HAI condition would increase decision difficulty than would the LAI condition and result in smaller P3 amplitudes. In addition, an increased late positive component (LPC) was observed for the HAI condition in contrast to the LAI condition, indicating that consumers were more inclined to have decision process regret when consumers were overloaded. We further investigated the dynamic information processing when consumers got over information overload by mining the brain's time-varying networks. The results revealed that during the decision process and the neural response stage, the central area controlled other brain regions' activities for the HAI condition, suggesting that people may still consider and compare other important information after the decision process when faced with information overload. In general, this study may provide neural evidence of how information overload affects consumers' decision processes and ultimately damages decision quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stability of default effects to contextual features is critical to their use in policy. In this paper, decision time was investigated as a contextual factor that may pose limits on the efficacy of defaults. Consistent with the hypothesis that time constraints may increase reliance on contextual cues, four experiments, including a preregistered one of a nationally representative sample, and a meta-analysis that included four additional pilot experiments, indicated that short decision times increased the advantage of action defaults (i.e., the default option automatically endorsed the desired behavior) and that the default advantage was trivial or nonexistent when decision times were longer. These effects replicated for naturalistic as well as externally induced decision times and were present even when participants were unaware that time was limited. This research has critical implications for psychological science and allied disciplines concerned with policy in the domains of public health, finance and economics, marketing, and environmental sciences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]