Search

The Tanzanian economy has grown at an average annual rate of around 6-7 percent for more than a decade. The rate of inflation has declined since January 2016, although it trended upwards in thepreceding few months due to increases in domestic food prices and the lagged impacts of the sharp depreciation of the Tanzanian Shilling during the first half of 2015. However, the Shilling stabilized in the second half of 2015, with the real exchange rate now close to the equilibrium level. The current account deficit has also improved, standing at around 8.7 percent of GDP in 2014/15. The level of aid inflows declined during 2014/15, although this was offset by increases in FDI and external non-concessional borrowing, maintaining the overall balance of payments in a stable position. Tanzania's infrastructure and social services deficits are already massive and projected to increase into the future. Traditional financing instruments are clearly insufficient to bridge the profound gap between existing public resources and financing requirements. By leveraging synergy between the public and private sectors, PPPs can mobilize additional sources of finance to fund the development of vitally needed infrastructure; to deliver on budget and on time to a greater extent than in the case of publicly financed projects; and to deliver higher quality services than in the case of publicly managed projects. Tanzania’s own policy documents identify PPP as a key instrument to attract new investment and to deliver infrastructure more efficiently.

This study uses data from the new Kauffman Firm Survey to explore gender differences in the use of start-up capital and subsequent financial injections by new firms. We find that, consistent with previous studies, women start their businesses with significantly lower levels of financial capital than men. A new finding from this research is that women go on to raise significantly lower amounts of incremental debt and equity in years two and three. These results hold even controlling for a variety of firm and owner characteristics, including the level of initial start-up capital and firm sales. Our findings also reveal that women rely heavily on personal rather than external sources of debt and equity for both start-up capital as well as follow-on investments. Our findings have implications for further research into gender differences in financing sources and strategies and business outcomes.

The 2014-2015 Romania Regional Development 2 Program is the continuation of the World Bank’s technical assistance to the Ministry of Regional Development and Public Administration (MRDPA). Building on the previous engagement, the current work addresses a fundamental question: given Romania’s persistent development challenges, how can the country do more with less when it comes to the public infrastructure it needs? The key is to enhance coordination and harmonization of different funding sources, particularly infrastructure programs financed from the state budget and from EU structural funds. The National Local Development Program (PNDL), managed by the MRDPA, is reviewed in depth, though the conclusions typically hold for all state-budget-funded programs. This synthesis report summarizes the main findings and recommendations from eight final reports and 24 knowledge sharing workshops organized in all eight regions in Romania in 2015. Several ‘bonus’ outputs were also produced, going beyond the terms of this technical assistance (three investment guides, an applicant guide, and an operational manual). This synthesis report – along with all the outputs it draws from – is meant as a practical tool for policymakers at the national, regional, and local level. It also seeks to inform a broader audience of private and nongovernmental stakeholders.

This paper presents an overview of the structure of probabilistic catastrophe risk models, discusses their importance for appraising sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance instruments and strategy, and puts forward a model and a process for improving decision making on the linked disaster risk management strategy and sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance strategy. The paper discusses governments use of probabilistic catastrophe models to inform sovereign disaster risk financing decision making and describes the ex ante and ex post financing instruments available for responding to extreme natural events. It also discusses the challenge of appraising sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance instruments, including a review of the multiple dimensions of disaster risks and the value that probabilistic catastrophe risk models provide. The decision making framework for sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance put forward by the paper includes the use of a decision model (an influence diagram) as a rigorous representation of the relationships between the decisions, uncertain events, and consequences relevant to sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance decision making. The framework also includes a process for generating high-quality customized components for the decision model, and a tool for designing coherent sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance strategies. The paper ends with suggestions for improving catastrophe risk models to facilitate sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance decision making.

The latest issue of Handshake, focused on public-private partnerships in the Innovation. “An age of constant invention naturally begets one of constant failure,”the New York Times Magazine declared in a recent story called “Welcometo the Failure Age.” Its core premise—that innovation is inextricably linked with failure—may be a fresh insight for the high-tech era, but has long been understood by those who work in infrastructure. To state the obvious:for those of us in infrastructure PPPs, failure is not a novel concept.Innovation is. The interplay between the two, with attention to the iterativelearning that is necessary to morph missteps into course corrections. Once the seeds of those ideas are planted, innovation has already begun to germinate. This issue includes the following headings: inside Korea’s PPP unit reinvigorating the regional economy; innovating at scale less early adoption,more global adaptation; The politics of PPP barcelona partnership energizes urban center; redefining failure and success why the “Brilliant Mistake” matters; course corrections small changes that create better outcomes; reviving the reliance rail PPP turning around a difficult project; protecting your PPP stabilizing partnerships in uncertain times; PPP insider Korea’s PPP unit creates institutional memory; from lessons to principles The public governance of PPPs; money talks debunking the myth of the “quick and easy” PPP; inside infrastructure powering rural Africa; One question eight experts discuss how PPPscan absorb common mistakes; master class preventing renegotiation, fostering efficiency; What the rest of the world is saying about PPPs.

The purpose of this paper is to capture lessons learned from East African entrepreneurs who were some of crowdfunding’s first adopters. Their experiences can serve as a practical guide for entrepreneurs looking to more effectively utilize crowdfunding across all emerging markets. In order to gather this data, the World Bank conducted interviews with a number of East African technology entrepreneurs who ran crowdfunding campaigns, both successfully and unsuccessfully. The following paper offers six key lessons for entrepreneurs in Africa and other emerging markets as they consider when, why and how to launch a crowdfunding campaign: crowdfunding is much more difficult than most entrepreneurs anticipate and is not for everyone. Opportunity costs abound; business needs should dictate platform choice; payment systems impact platform choice; quality and quantity of contributor networks are key; entrepreneurs should tap into complementary resources and organizations to increase their likelihood of success; and crowdfunding can have non-monetary benefits.

The urban population in Ethiopia is increasing rapidly. If managed proactively, urban population growth presents a huge opportunity to shift the structure and location of economic activity from rural agriculture to the larger and more diversified urban industrial and service sectors. If not managed proactively, rapid urban population growth may pose a demographic challenge as cities struggle to provide jobs, infrastructure and services, and housing. The central challenge for the Ethiopian Government is to make sure that cities are attractive places in which to work and live, while fostering smart urbanization. Making urbanization a national priority will accelerate Ethiopia’s progress towards reaching middle-income status. The government has already taken steps to make evidence-based, informed decisions for well-managed urban growth, and this report aims to contribute to those efforts.

From 2004 to 2012, Zambia experienced a combination of good economic policies and high rates of growth not seen since the early years after its independence. While growth was mainly driven by rising copper prices, other factors contributed to Zambia’s ability to take advantage of this growth. The international debt relief programs in 2004-2005 almost eliminated public debt and provided the fiscal space for selective, high-priority investments and expanded social programs. The privatization of the copper mines brought new investment in rehabilitation and expansion of production. The period also saw a substantial expansion of primary education and progress in dealing with the most pervasive public health problems. These positive developments set the stage for Zambia to tackle its pervasive poverty. In practice, however, sustained growth over the period has led to little poverty reduction, especially in rural areas of the country. The Bank Group and other donors provided critical support at the beginning of the evaluation period, when Zambia’s debt level became unsustainable. The Bank provided substantial support for capacity development and better functioning institutions. The Bank’s efforts to strengthen public administration and improve governance met with some partial successes in enhanced audit and procurement capacity, and the achievement of Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative compliance. However, despite nearly a decade of implementation, the Integrated Financial Management Information Systems (IFMIS), is still only partially operational. Further, the Zambian government has not followed through on its positive discourse regarding decentralization of government authority.

A new coalition government was formed in September 2012 following the collapse of the previous government at the end of August 2012. The Kyrgyz economy experienced a significant decline during the first half of 2012 caused by disrupted operations at the Kumtor gold mine. A decline in gold exports combined with a higher level of imports has increased the current account deficit. Expansionary fiscal policy during the first half of the year along with revenue weakness during the remainder of the year will widen the fiscal deficit to 6.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012 from 4.8 percent of GDP a year ago. The medium-term growth outlook is favorable although there are significant downside risks. There are also exogenous shocks that will need to be mitigated, including rising food prices, spillover effects from the Euro zone sovereign debt crisis, and a weak global economy.

This investment climate analysis reviews the experiences of over 3000 surveyed business owners in 26 states of Nigeria about the aspects of the business climate that affect their businesses. It complements a similar study in 2007 that covered 11 other Nigerian states. The survey asks business owners about both their perceptions and the actual costs of selected constraints. The analysis benchmarks Nigeria against comparator countries, and provides detailed data for each state. Nigerian firms have low productivity, as measured by their output in relation to their labor and capital inputs. Firms in Kenya are about 40 percent more efficient, firms in Russia almost twice as productive, and firms in South Africa almost four times as productive. Nigerian firms that export are about 90 percent more productive than non-exporters. Although labor in Nigeria is inexpensive, it is not inexpensive enough to compensate for this low productivity. The poor performance of Nigerian firms reflects many factors. This study focuses on constraints in the business climate and the serious costs they impose on Nigerian firms. Taken together, the total indirect costs of poor quality infrastructure, crime and security, and corruption amount to over 10 percent of sales for Nigerian firms. This is twice as high as in South Africa, Brazil, Russia and Indonesia. Microenterprises firms with fewer than five workers face similar constraints as larger firm's unreliable power, limited access to finance, corruption, and transportation bottlenecks. But the consequences for their businesses are far more severe. For instance, most microenterprises cannot afford generators, so power outages are more likely to shut down their operation. Lacking collateral, almost no microenterprises have access to formal external financing.

For the last three years, Pakistan has been making efforts to revive strong and sustained growth. The economy was badly destabilized by the turmoil in the international commodity and financial markets in 2007-2008 and the lack of adequate domestic policy responses to manage those external shocks. The task of stabilizing the economy and reviving the economic recovery has been made difficult by an adverse security situation and domestic politics that has prevented the government from taking timely required, but difficult, stabilization measures. The devastating floods in July-August last year and the recent increase in international oil and food prices have exacerbated the problem. In addition, Pakistan continues to face significant political challenges in achieving durable development. The domestic security situation as a result of campaign against terrorism is a direct and indirect tax on the costs of economic activity and the achievement of the kinds of social stability required to promote a supportive environment for businesses.

Current international financing (primarily ODA) for environmental services in developing countries is very roughly estimated to be upwards of $21 billion annually (not including climate change financing), but additional resources on the order of tens, if not hundreds, of billions of dollars are needed. In 2009, environmental ODA was estimated at $18 billion with a few billion more delivered through philanthropic and market-based financing channels. Although there are only a few studies of the additional financing needed, and those are relatively narrow in scope, the estimates that are available clearly indicate that significantly higher levels of finance still need to be reached. Additionally, the impacts of environmental finance on environmental sustainability and development objectives are poorly understood. Systematic reviews of previous experience, and standardized monitoring in the future, would support the countries and projects monitored, while also providing important lessons for the broader development and environment communities.

Infrastructure plays a key role in promoting economic growth and opportunities.In particular, the efficient provision of basic infrastructure services, like water and sanitation, is a key ingredient in fostering a country's social and economic development. Previous studies have found that infrastructure has a positive impact on output, and can improve economic opportunity, including health and education for the poor, particularly in developing countries. In Argentina, a 2005 study, found that child mortality fell by 8 percent in areas that had experienced improved coverage and quality of basic water and sanitation through utility reform, with most of the reduction occurring in low-income areas where the water network expanded the most. More generally, Fay and Morrison found that allowing the poorest quintile in developing countries the same access to basic services as the richest quintile would reduce child mortality by 8 percent and child under development by 14 percent. Calderon and Serven also found a significant positive impact of infrastructure access and quality on overall inequality. Furthermore, the book sheds some light on how to address the main challenge for the future which may be to attract specialized operators to the smaller municipalities which do not currently have them. For that purpose in Colombia, for example, over the last two years, the policy framework has been focused on promoting the sector's development, by using the departments as the intermediate institutional level between the National Government and the municipalities, to formulate programs with regional impact and promote comprehensive investment plans.

This paper reviews the experiences of intergovernmental fiscal systems (IGFS) to look for possible lessons for how Official Development Assistance (ODA) is delivered. Specifically, it compares IGFS and ODA in two specific respects. The first is the proportion of public resources that central governments make available to sub-national governments on a conditional basis, and how that compares with the proportion of non-earmarked ODA given to low income countries. The second is the role of performance outcome in resource allocation to sub-national governments and how that compares with the role of performance in ODA, particularly multilateral ODA allocation. The comparisons show that: (i) the share of earmarked ODA is more than three times higher than that of conditional grants in intergovernmental systems, suggesting that donors in ODA rely more on earmarking to influence the spending decisions of the recipient countries than their federal governments do on conditional grants to induce policy changes in their own sub-national governments; and (ii) none of the OECD countries currently use outcome measures in determining resource allocation to their sub-national governments for a variety of good reasons, and the recent debate as to whether multilateral ODA allocation should be based on development outcomes seems to ignore this experience.

In recent years, bilateral aid channeled through multilateral organizations like the World Bank has become an important vehicle for concessional finance for development. At the end of FY09, the World Bank held US$23.9 billion in trust, an amount that has doubled since FY05. While much of the growth reflects the increase in large Financial Intermediary Funds (FIFs), there has also been a rapid increase in Recipient Executed Trust Funds (RETFs). This paper aims to inform internal Bank audiences and stimulate discussion on some selected issues - primarily the growing importance of RETFs as a source of finance and relevance to Bank's country level operations. The report also examines briefly the link between RETF allocations and country performance. The report finds that disbursements of RETFs grew by twenty percent over FY03-FY09. Over this period the trends in regional disbursement shares shifted away from East Asia and Pacific and South Asia Regions to Africa Region. Recipient country concentration is evident: fifty percent of the disbursements have been from six countries - Afghanistan, West Bank and Gaza, Ethiopia, Vietnam, Indonesia and China. RETF disbursements, as a share of the combined International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), International Development Association (IDA), and RETF, grew from five percent in FY03 to twelve percent in FY08, while that of IBRD and IDA fluctuated. The bulk of the disbursements from RETF grants were from IDA eligible countries. RETFs appear to have substituted for IDA in fragile and conflict affected states. Disbursements from RETF grants and IDA credits were broadly aligned by sector. There may be some correlation between RETF grants allocation and country performance but the results are not conclusive. The report identifies some areas for further examination: whether RETFs should complement or substitute for Bank operations in specific cases; and whether RETF allocations should be made on the basis of some need or performance based country priorities, outcomes and results.

This evaluation assesses the outcomes of World Bank Group’s (WBG’s) development support to the West Bank and Gaza for the period 2001-09. It covers the programs of the World Bank - International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), International Development Association (IDA), International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA). The main objectives of the WBG program were broad, reflecting the extremely volatile political situation, characterized by frequent humanitarian and economic crises that required abrupt shifts in the Bank’s strategy. The WB is both the main economic adviser to the Quartet on the Middle East and the administrator of large donor trust funds. The WBG made important contributions in identifying obstacles to development, estimating their costs, and promoting the search for reasonable compromises. The Bank Group program needs to recognize that the long-term development effectiveness of its support is heavily dependent on the Israeli-Palestinian political framework, as well as close alignment of its efforts with those of other donors. Other specific recommendations of this evaluation include: developing a medium-term strategy with a focused results framework; exploring opportunities for closer cooperation with Arab donors; helping the Palestinian Authority (PA) to develop a long-term strategy to reduce aid dependence; and identifying opportunities for Israeli-Palestinian cooperation on different aspects of development.