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Between 1981 and 2017, real gross domestic product in Thailand grew at an average annual rate of 5.7 per cent. Agricultural output grew more slowly than industry or services, and its gross domestic product share consequently declined. Industry's gross domestic product share increased, and the share of services remained relatively constant. Agriculture's employment share declined, but most new jobs were in services. Concurrently, poverty incidence declined dramatically. Income inequality increased until the late 1980s, then gradually declined, reaching a level in 2017 that was well below the 1981 level. Economic growth combined with structural change contributed to poverty reduction, but the magnitude of this impact depends heavily on the poverty line used in calculating poverty. The Thai data support the Kuznets hypothesis of an inverted U-shaped relationship between average income and inequality but suggest no long-term 'Kuznetsian tension' between the rate of structural change and the level of inequality.

Over the past two decades consumption inequality has risen within Laos, while absolute poverty incidence halved. The estimated Gini coefficient of private household expenditures per person rose from 0.311 to 0.364. This increase in the sample-based estimate of inequality was statistically significant and occurred in all regions, in both rural and urban areas and among all major ethnic, educational and sectoral employment categories. Within-group increases in inequality dominated between-group changes, but official policy largely overlooks this point, focusing on reducing inequality between, rather than within major groups. This assessment argues that economic inequality should become a more pressing policy concern.

Thailand's export-oriented automotive industry is a recognized economic success story. How did it happen and what lessons might other countries draw? This paper argues that the success of the industry was based on three factors. First was the substantial public investment in port facilities and related infrastructure, beginning in the 1990s, that constituted the Eastern Seaboard economic corridor. Second was the exchange rate depreciation that followed the 1997-1999 Asian Financial Crisis, making manufacturing production for export more profitable. The third factor was two key policy changes adopted by the Thai government shortly after the crisis, and partly in response to it: (a) abolition of restrictions on foreign ownership and (b) abolition of local content requirements. Neighboring countries, including Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, also experienced the crisis and were potential competitors in attracting foreign investment in automotive production for export. But they did not adopt these two key reforms.

Over the last 2 decades the distribution of private household expenditures has become more unequal in the Lao People's Democratic Republic, with the Gini coefficient rising from 0.311 to 0.364, even though absolute poverty incidence has halved. The increase in inequality was statistically significant and reduced the average rate of poverty reduction per year by about 28%, meaning the actual rate compared with the counterfactual rate that would have occurred if the mean real expenditures had increased at their observed levels but inequality had not changed. When the data are decomposed into rural and urban areas of residence or by province, or by the ethnicity of the household head, the increase in inequality within groups dominates any changes between groups; inequality has increased throughout the country. In contrast, access to publicly provided services has become more equal; disparities in participation rates between richer and poorer groups have diminished.

This study examines the role of special economic zones (SEZs) within the trade policy of Cambodia. It asks whether Cambodia's establishment of SEZs since late 2005 has been successful, based on the evidence to date, and analyzes the appropriate role and management of SEZs over the next decade or more. The study finds that the SEZs have attracted significant levels of foreign investment into Cambodia that would not have been present otherwise. These investments have created around 68,000 jobs, with equal or better pay and better prospects than the alternatives that would otherwise have existed, raising the economic welfare of the workers concerned. A feature of the Cambodian experience is that the government has left the establishment and management of the zones to private sector developers, avoiding the large and sometimes wasteful public sector set up costs associated with SEZ establishment in many other countries.

Studies of the incidence of benefits from public services have rightly stressed the difference between average and marginal benefits. Cross sectional methods of analysis for Lao PDR indicate that for public education and health services, total benefits are highest for the best-off quintile groups. Nevertheless, these groups' shares of marginal benefits are generally considerably lower and the marginal benefit shares of poorer quintile groups are correspondingly higher. For primary and secondary education and for primary health centers, expanding the overall level of provision delivers a pattern of marginal benefits that is significantly more pro-poor than average shares indicate. Although panel estimates show a pattern of marginal benefits that is somewhat less pro-poor than cross-sectional results suggest, they do not change the finding that the pattern of marginal benefits is more pro-poor than the overall pattern of average benefits.

Trade and investment reforms in the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) since the mid-1980s have boosted natural resource-based exports, underpinning recent economic growth. A high proportion of the proceeds from these exports accrue directly to the government. Over the 8 years preceding 2011, total government revenue increased from 11% to over 19% of gross domestic product, due almost entirely to revenues derived from mining and hydropower. The effect on the Lao people depends on how the government uses these revenues. This paper examines how the Lao PDR's export-led growth can be channeled into directions that deliver the greatest benefit to the Lao people.

Thailand's development strategy has been strongly market-oriented and open to trade and investment flows with the rest of the world. Since the late 1950s, its growth performance has been outstanding. Poverty incidence has declined dramatically, but economic inequality has increased. Economic progress has been reflected in very significant improvement in non-economic indicators of well-being such as life expectancy, infant and maternal morality, and literacy. Nevertheless, the performance of the education system is chronically poor. Environmental problems and institutional failures in resource management are ongoing. Reform is needed in several areas, including political and corporate governance, regulation of industry, and in the education and health systems.

This study analyzes the effects on poverty incidence and other economic variables resulting from government expenditures associated with natural resource revenues, using the Nam Theun II hydroelectric power project in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) as a case study. The analysis uses a multi-sector/multi-household general equilibrium model of the economy of Lao PDR. The conceptual framework distinguishes between official and marginal expenditures financed by project revenues, recognizing that some of the former still might have been undertaken without the new revenues generated by the project. A range of assumptions is considered regarding the direct distributional impact of the marginal expenditures. The analysis also incorporates the project’s indirect distributional effects, operating through the "Dutch disease" mechanism. We find that poverty incidence declines under the entire range of distributional assumptions considered. Nevertheless, the most important determinant of poverty impact is the degree of rural bias. Even the most regressive of the pro-rural distributions reduces poverty incidence by seven times as much as the most progressive of the pro-urban distributions.

A general equilibrium framework is used in this paper to study the regional economic effects of infrastructure improvements designed to reduce the costs of cross-border inter-regional trade. The analysis focuses on the economic benefits from the Second Mekong International Bridge between Mukdahan Province in Thailand and Savannakhet Province in the Lao People's Democratic Republic. The results suggest that in the short-run, the kind of transport cost reductions that are consistent with improvement of inter-regional transport facilities will produce a modest increase in inter-regional trade volumes in both directions and a small increase in real consumption in both regions. Over a longer period of time, the economic benefits to both regions are very much larger, as investors respond to the changed structure of incentives with new capital investments, and as workers move to regions of greater return to their labor. The results do not confirm the common presumption that the benefits from cross-border infrastructure projects occur only, or overwhelmingly, in the richer region.

Most poor people of the world reside in rural areas, which are frequently characterized by low levels of public infrastructure, especially roads. Inadequate roads raise transport costs, limiting the use poor people can make of local markets for the sale of their produce, the purchase of consumer goods and opportunities for off-farm employment. Between 1997–98 and 2002–03, rural poverty incidence in Lao PDR declined by 9.5 per cent of the rural population. This occurred even though some of the macroeconomic conditions in Lao PDR mitigated, to some extent, against the interests of rural people. The analysis of the relationship between poverty incidence and road development provided in this paper suggests that about 13 per cent of this decline in rural poverty can be attributed to improved road access alone. Other factors included a massive public investment in irrigation facilities. There is now a high return to providing dry weather access to the most isolated households of Lao PDR—those who have no road access at all. They constitute 31.6 per cent of all rural households in Lao PDR and are being left behind by the development of the market economy. By providing them with dry season road access, rural poverty incidence could be reduced permanently from the present 33 per cent to 29.7 per cent. A further reduction to 26 per cent could be obtained by providing all rural households with all-weather road access.

Do changes in poverty and inequality depend directly on the rate of economic growth, or does the source of the growth also matter? This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy to explore this question by simulating increases in GDP arising from (i) technical progress in each of seven broad sectors, and (ii) the accumulation of each of six types of physical and human capital. The more a given amount of growth raises the returns to the factors that are more important sources of income for the poor than for the non-poor, the more it reduces poverty and inequality. Different sources of growth affect poverty and inequality differently because they affect factor returns differently, and because the poor and the non-poor own factors in different proportions. – poverty ; inequality ; growth ; Indonesia

In recent decades, absolute poverty incidence declined in most countries of Southeast Asia, even though in some of these countries inequality increased at the same time. This paper examines the relationship between these outcomes and the rate of economic growth in the agricultural, industrial and services sectors. It develops a time series of available data on the headcount measure of poverty incidence for Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines over the period from the 1960s to 1999, in aggregate and in both rural and urban areas. It then uses this pooled data set to analyze the economic determinants of changes in poverty incidence.