Search

We argue that skill-biased technological change not only affects wage gaps between skill groups, but also increases wage inequality within skill groups, across workers in different workplaces. Building on a heterogeneous firm framework with labor market frictions, we show that an industry-wide skill-biased technological change shock will increase between-firm wage inequality within the industry through four main channels: changes in the skill wage premium (as in traditional models of technological change); increased employment concentration in more productive firms; increased wage dispersion between firms for workers of the same skill type; and increased dispersion in the skill mix that firms employ, due to more sorting of skilled workers to more productive firms. Using rich administrative matched employer-employee data from Germany, we provide empirical evidence of establishment-level patterns that are in line with the predictions of the model. We further document that industries with more technological adoption exhibit particularly pronounced patterns along the dimensions highlighted by the model.

This paper investigates the effects of technological and organizational change (T&O) on jobs and workers. We show that although T&O reduces firm demand for routine relative to abstract task-based jobs, affected workers do not face higher probability of non-employment or lower earnings growth than unaffected workers. Rather, firms that adopt T&O offer routine workers re-training opportunities to upgrade to more abstract jobs. Older workers form an important exception: T&O increases the risk that they permanently withdraw from the labor market and reduces their earnings, regardless of the tasks they performed in the firm prior to T&O.

This paper considers the role of school closures in the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. To isolate the impact of the closures from other containment measures and identify a causal effect, we exploit variation in the start and end dates of the summer school and fall holiday across the 16 federal states in Germany. Leveraging a difference-in-differences design with staggered adoption, we show that neither the summer closures nor the closures in the fall have had any significant containing effect on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 among children or any spill-over effect on older generations. We also do not find any evidence that schools returning to full capacity after the summer holidays increased infections among children or adults. Instead, we find the number of children infected increased during the last weeks of the summer holiday and decreased in the first weeks after schools reopen, a pattern we attribute to travel returnees and increased testing. Diese Studie befasst sich mit der Rolle von Schulschließungen bei der Verbreitung des SARS-CoV-2-Virus. Um die Auswirkungen der Schließungen von anderen Eindämmungsmaßnahmen zu isolieren und einen kausalen Effekt zu identifizieren, nutzen wir die Tatsache, dass die Schulferien in den Bundesländern zu unterschiedlichen Zeiten und unabhängig vom Infektionsgeschehen festgelegt werden. Mit einem Differenz-von-Differenzen-Ansatz ("staggered adoption design") zeigen wir, dass weder der Sommer noch die Schließungen im Herbst einen signifikanten Eindämmungseffekt auf die Ausbreitung von SARS-CoV-2 bei Kindern oder einen Spill-over-Effekt auf ältere Generationen hatten. Wir finden auch keine Hinweise darauf, dass Schulen nach der Rückkehr zum normalen Schulbetrieb nach den Sommerferien die Infektionen bei Kindern oder Erwachsenen erhöht haben. Stattdessen stellen wir fest, dass die Zahl der infizierten Kinder in den letzten Wochen der Sommerferien zunahm und in den ersten Wochen nach der Wiedereröffnung der Schulen zurückging - ein Muster, das wir auf Reiserückkehrer und vermehrte Tests zurückführen.

Does the culture in which a woman grows up influence her labor market decisions once she has had a child? To what extent might the culture of her present social environment shape maternal labor supply? To address these questions, we exploit the setting of German reunification. A state socialist country, East Germany strongly encouraged mothers to participate in the labor market full-time, whereas West Germany propagated a more traditional male breadwinner-model. After reunification, these two cultures were suddenly thrown together, with consequent increased social interactions between East and West Germans through migration and commuting. A comparison of East and West German mothers on both sides of the former Inner German border within the same commuting zone shows that culture matters. Indeed, East German mothers return to work more quickly and for longer hours than West German mothers even two decades after reunification. Second, in exploiting migration across this old border, we document a strong asymmetry in the persistence of the culture in which women were raised. Whereas East German female migrants return to work earlier and work longer hours than their West German colleagues even after long exposure to the more traditional West German culture, West German migrants adjust their post-birth labor supply behavior nearly entirely to that of their East German colleagues. Finally, taking advantage of differential inflows of East German migrants across West German firms in the aftermath of reunification, we show that even a partial exposure to East German colleagues induces 'native' West German mothers to accelerate their return to work after childbirth, suggesting that migration might be a catalyst for cultural change. Werden die Arbeitsmarktentscheidungen von Müttern von der Kultur beeinflusst, in der die Frauen aufgewachsen sind? Und wie wirkt sich das aktuelle soziale Umfeld auf das Arbeitsangebot von Müttern aus? Um diese Fragen zu beantworten, vergleichen wir ost- und westdeutsche Frauen im Kontext der deutschen Wiedervereinigung. Im sozialistischen Osten wurde die Vollzeiterwerbstätigkeit von Müttern forciert, während in Westdeutschland das traditionelle Modell des männlichen Hauptverdieners verbreitet war. Nach der Wiedervereinigung wurden beide Kulturen plötzlich miteinander konfrontiert und dieser Austausch wurde durch die darauffolgenden Migrations-und Pendlerströme weiter verstärkt. Vergleicht man ost- und westdeutsche Mütter entlang der ehemaligen innerdeutschen Grenze innerhalb desselben grenzüberschreitenden lokalen Arbeitsmarktes, zeigt sich, dass Kultur für deren Arbeitsmarktentscheidungen eine entscheidende Rolle spielt. Selbst 20 Jahre nach der Wiedervereinigung kehren ostdeutsche Mütter früher in ihren Beruf zurück und arbeiten mehr Stunden als westdeutsche Mütter. In einem zweiten Schritt betrachten wir ost- und westdeutsche Migrantinnen im jeweils anderen Landesteil und zeigen, dass die ost- und westdeutsche Kindheitskultur unterschiedlich persistent ist. Während ostdeutsche Migrantinnen früher nach der Geburt ihres Kindes in den Beruf zurückkehren und auch mehr Stunden arbeiten als ihre westdeutschen Kolleginnen selbst wenn sie schon lange in der traditionelleren westdeutschen Kultur gelebt haben, passen sich westdeutsche Migrantinnen in ihrem Arbeitsangebot nach der Geburt fast komplett ihren ostdeutschen Kolleginnen an. In einem letzten Schritt nutzen wir aus, dass westdeutsche Firmen unterschiedlich stark von Migrationsströmen von Ost nach West betroffen waren und finden, dass westdeutsche Frauen selbst in ihrem eigenen kulturellen Umfeld durch den Kontakt zu ostdeutschen Frauen ihr Verhalten ändern und früher nach der Geburt ihres Kindes in den Beruf zurückkehren. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass Migration ein Katalysator für kulturellen Wandel sein kann.

In this paper, we examine the heterogeneous treatment effects of a universal child care (preschool) program in Germany by exploiting the exogenous variation in attendance caused by a reform that led to a large staggered expansion across municipalities. Drawing on novel administrative data from the full population of compulsory school entry examinations, we find that children with lower (observed and unobserved) gains are more likely to select into child care than children with higher gains. This pattern of reverse selection on gains is driven by unobserved family background characteristics: children from disadvantaged backgrounds are less likely to attend child care than children from advantaged backgrounds but have larger treatment effects because of their worse outcome when not enrolled in child care.

In this paper, we examine the heterogeneous treatment effects of a universal child care (preschool) program in Germany by exploiting the exogenous variation in attendance caused by a reform that led to a large staggered expansion across municipalities. Drawing on novel administrative data from the full population of compulsory school entry examinations, we find that children with lower (observed and unobserved) gains are more likely to select into child care than children with higher gains. This pattern of reverse selection on gains is driven by unobserved family background characteristics: children from disadvantaged backgrounds are less likely to attend child care than children from advantaged backgrounds but have larger treatment effects because of their worse outcome when not enrolled in child care. Auf der Basis umfangreicher Daten der Schuleingangsuntersuchung Weser-Ems für die Jahre 1994-2002 untersucht diese Studie heterogene Effekte eines frühen Kindergartenbesuches auf die Schulfähigkeit von Kindern in Deutschland. Dabei wird der Ausbau von Kindergartenplätzen in den 1990er Jahren, hervorgerufen durch die Einführung des Kindergartenrechtsanspruches in 1996, als Identifikationsstrategie gennutzt um ursächliche Zusammenhänge aufzuzeigen. Die Forschungsergebnisse zeigen, dass der Kindergartenbesuch die Schulfähigkeit von Kindern mit Migrationshintergrund und aus sozial benachteiligten Familien deutlich stärker erhöht als die Schulfähigkeit von Kindern mit privilegierterem Familienhintergrund. Jedoch findet die Studie auch, dass gerade die Kinder, die stark von einem Kindergartenbesuch profitieren würden, das frühkindliche Bildungsangebot seltener nutzen. Der Grund für die stark unterschiedlichen Effekte des frühen Kindergartenbesuches für verschiedene Bevölkerungsgruppen sind Unterschiede im familiären Umfeld. Ein früher Kindergartenbesuch kann diese Unterschiede ausgleichen.

By exploiting a commuting policy that led to a sharp and unexpected inflow of Czech workers to areas along the German-Czech border, we examine the impact of an exogenous immigration-induced labor supply shock on local wages and employment of natives. On average, the supply shock leads to a moderate decline in local native wages and a sharp decline in local native employment. These average effects mask considerable heterogeneity across groups: while younger natives experience larger wage effects, employment responses are particularly pronounced for older natives. This pattern is inconsistent with standard models of immigration but can be accounted for by a model that allows for a larger labor supply elasticity or a higher degree of wage rigidity for older than for young workers. We further show that the employment response is almost entirely driven by diminished inflows of natives into work rather than outflows into other areas or non-employment, suggesting that "outsiders" shield "insiders" from the increased competition.

This paper provides an introduction into the estimation of Marginal Treatment Effects (MTE). Compared to the existing surveys on the subject, our paper is less technical and speaks to the applied economist with a solid basic understanding of econometric techniques who would like to use MTE estimation. Our framework of analysis is a generalized Roy model based on the potential outcomes framework, within which we define different treatment effects of interest, and review the well-known case of IV estimation with a discrete instrument resulting in a local average treatment effect (LATE). Turning to IV estimation with a continuous instrument we demonstrate that the 2SLS estimator may be viewed as a weighted average of LATEs, and discuss MTE estimation as an alternative and more informative way of exploiting a continuous instrument. We clarify the assumptions underlying the MTE framework and illustrate how the MTE estimation is implemented in practice.

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of refugee migration, with emphasis on the current refugee crisis. After first reviewing the institutional framework laid out by the Geneva Convention for Refugees, we demonstrate that, despite numerous attempts at developing a common European asylum policy, EU countries continue to differ widely in interpretation and implementation. We then describe key features of the current refugee crisis and document the overall magnitudes and types of refugee movements, illegal border crossings, and asylum applications to EU member states. We next turn to the economics of refugee migrations, contrasting economic and refugee migrants, discussing the trade-offs between long-term asylum and temporary protection, and highlighting the economic advantages of increasingly coordinating the different national asylum policies. Finally, we illustrate the economic integration of past refugee migrants to EU countries and conclude with several policy recommendations.

"The data set that researchers have used most often to study career interruptions due to childbirth in the German context is the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). An alternative data source is the much larger IAB Employment Sample (IABS). Although this data set does not include direct information on childbirth, mothers on maternity leave can potentially be identified. There are, however, two problems. First, the leave variable in the IABS does not distinguish between maternity leave and other leave taking, such as sick leave. Second, the child's birth month has to be inferred from the month in which the mother goes on maternity leave, which is likely to lead to measurement error in the time that the mother spends at home after childbirth. This paper investigates both problems, using an extended version of the IABS that supplements the social security records with direct information on childbirth from the German Pension Register. I find that for Western West German citizens, at least 90% of leave spells are due to maternity leave. The child's birth month is correctly estimated for at least 70%, and over- or underestimated by one month for about 25% of mothers. I conclude that the most recent scientific use files of the IABS, the IABS 75-01 and IABS 75-04, provide a very valuable alternative data source to the GSOEP to study career interruptions due to childbirth, as long as the focus is on women who are attached to the labour market." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Governments are often willing to subsidize firms on the verge of bankruptcy. The main economic rationale behind these interventions is that a plant closure would not only harm the workers employed in that plant, but create a domino effect on the regional economy as a whole. Yet, little is still known empirically how important these spillover effects are for economic development in the region. In this paper, we use administrative data of all workers and firms in Germany to quantify the spillover effects of mass layoffs. For the empirical analysis, we combine a difference-in-differences estimator with an event-study approach. We find sizeable negative spillover effects on the regional economy: regions, and especially firms producing in the same sector as the firm hit by a mass layoff, lose many more jobs than in the initial layoff. In contrast, we find few negative effects for workers employed (but not directly affected by the layoff) in the region. As such, mass layoffs seem to have negative spillovers locally, but not nationally.

Despite its efficiency in tailoring education to the needs of students, a tracking system has the inherent problem of misallocating students to tracks because of incomplete information at the time of the tracking decision. This paper investigates the effects of attending a more advanced track in middle school on long-term education and labor market outcomes for Germany, a country with a very rigorous tracking system where the risk of misallocating students to tracks is, due to the early age at which tracking takes place, particularly high. Our research design exploits quasi-random shifts between tracks induced by date of birth, and identifies the long-term effects of early track attendance for a group of marginal students most at risk of misallocation. Remarkably, we find no evidence that for these students, attending a more advanced track leads to more favorable long-term outcomes. We attribute this result to the up- and downgrading of students between tracks after middle school when more information about their potential is available. Overall, our findings underscore that flexibilities built into a tracking system, which allow students to revise initial track choices at a later stage, effectively remedy even a prolonged exposure to a less advanced school environment.

Existing evidence on peer effects in a work environment stems from either laboratory experiments or from real-word studies referring to a specific firm or specific occupation. Yet, it is unclear to what extent these findings apply to the labor market in general. In this paper, therefore, we investigate peer effects in the workplace for a representative set of workers, firms, and occupations with a focus on peer effects in wages rather than productivity. Our estimation strategy – which links the average permanent productivity of workers' peers to their wages – circumvents the reflection problem and accounts for the endogenous sorting of workers into peer groups and firms. On average, we find only small peer effects in wages. We also find small peer effects in the type of high skilled occupations which more closely resemble those used in studies on knowledge spillover. In the type of low skilled occupations analyzed in existing studies on social pressure, in contrast, we find larger peer effects, about half the size of those identified in similar studies on productivity.

This paper develops a model and derives novel testable implications of referral-based job search networks in which employees provide employers with information about potential job market candidates that they otherwise would not have. Using unique matched employer-employee data that cover the entire workforce in one large metropolitan labor market over a 20 year period, we find strong support for the predictions of our model. We first show that firms are more likely to hire minority workers from a particular group if the existing share of workers from that group employed in the firm is higher. We then provide evidence that workers earn higher wages, and are less likely to leave their firms, if they were hired by a firm with a larger share of minority workers from their own group and are therefore more likely to have obtained the job through a referral. The effects are particularly strong at the beginning of the employment relationship and decline with tenure in the firm. These findings have important implications in suggesting that job search networks help to reduce informational deficiencies in the labor market and lead to productivity gains for workers and firms.

This paper evaluates the impact of three major expansions in leave coverage in Germany on the long-run education and labor market outcomes of children. Evaluation of three policy reforms as opposed to a single reform enables us to analyze whether the impact of paid leave differs from that of unpaid leave, and whether an expansion of a relatively short leave period is more beneficial to child development than an expansion of an already long leave period. Our empirical analysis combines two large administrative data sources on wages, unemployment, and school outcomes. We identify the causal impact of the reforms by comparing outcomes of children born shortly before and shortly after a change in maternity leave legislation, and therefore require substantially weaker assumptions for identification than existing studies. We find little support for the hypothesis that an expansion in maternity leave legislation improves children's outcomes. Given the precision of our estimates, we can statistically rule out the hypothesis that the expansion in paid leave from 2 to 6 (unpaid leave from 18 to 36) months raised wages (attendance at high track schools) by more than 0.3 % (0.1 %).

This paper studies how portable skill accumulated in the labor market are. Using rich data on tasks performed in occupations, we propose the concept of task-specific human capital to measure the transferability of skills empirically. Our results on occupational mobility and wages show that labor market skills are more portable than previously considered. We find that individuals move to occupations with similar task requirements and that the distance of moves declines with time in the labor market. We also show that task-specific human capital is an important source of individual wage growth, in particular for university graduates. For them, at least 40 percent of overall wage growth over a ten year period can be attributed to task-specific human capital. For the low- and medium-skilled, task-specific human capital accounts for at least 35 and 25 percent of overall wage growth respectively.

This paper analyzes the impact of expansions in leave coverage on mothers' labor market outcomes after childbirth. The focus is on Germany, a country that underwent several changes in maternity leave legislation since the late 70s. We identify the causal impact of an expansion in maternity leave by comparing labor market outcomes of women who gave birth shortly (i.e. one month) before and after a change in maternity leave legislation. There is strong evidence that each expansion induced women to delay their return to work. Despite this strong short-term effect, the expansions had little impact on women's labor supply in the long-run. The expansion from 2 to 6 months reduced women's wages, even 8 years after childbirth. This effect is mostly explained by the delay in the return to work. The delay in the return to work caused by the expansions in leave from 6 to 10 months and 18 to 36 months also lowered wages. However, this negative effect is offset by a positive selection effect, resulting in a zero or even positive overall effect.

This paper challenges the view that the wage structure in West-Germany has remained stable throughout the 80s and 90s. Based on a 2 % sample of social security records, we show that wage inequality has increased in the 1980s, but only at the top of the distribution. In the early 1990s, wage inequality started to rise also at the bottom of the distribution. Hence, while the US and Germany experienced similar changes at the top of the distribution throughout the 80s and 90s, the patterns at the bottom of the distribution are reversed. We show that changes in the education and age structure can explain a substantial part of the increase in inequality, in particular at the top of the distribution. We further argue that selection into unemployment cannot account for the stable wage structure at the bottom in the 80s. In contrast, about one third of the increase in lower tail inequality in the 90s can be related to de-unionization. Finally, fluctuations in relative supply play an important role in explaining trends in the skill premium. These findings are consistent with the view that technological change is responsible for the widening of the wage distribution at the top. The widening of the wage distribution at the bottom, however, may be better explained by episodic events, such as changes in labour market institutions and supply shocks.

Previous studies assume that labor market skills are either fully general or specific to the firm. This paper uses patterns in mobility and wages to analyze how portable specific skills are in the labor market. The empirical analysis combines data on tasks performed in different jobs with a large panel on complete working histories and wages. Our results demonstrate that labor market skills are partially transferable across occupations. We find that individuals move to occupations with similar task requirements and that the distance of moves declines with time in the labor market. Further, tenure in the last occupation affects current wages, and the effect is stronger if the two occupations are similar. Our estimates suggest that task-specific human capital is the most important source of wage growth for university graduates. For the low- and medium-skilled, returns to task human capital are also sizeable, though smaller than for labor market experience.

This paper tests the hypothesis that unions, through imposing wage floors that lead to wage compression, increase on-the-job training. Our analysis focuses on Germany which provides an interesting context to test this hypothesis, due to its large scale apprenticeship programme and its collective bargaining system that is based on voluntary union recognition. To guide the empirical analysis, we first develop a model of firm-financed training. A novel feature of our model is that a unionised and non-unionised sector coexist, and only unionized firms are bound by union wages. The model creates a rich set of empirical implications regarding apprenticeship training, layoffs, wage cuts, and wage compression in unionized and nonunionised firms. Our empirical analysis is based on firm panel data matched with administrative employee data, and provides strong support for our model. Our main results are that unionisation increases training, and that wage floors and wage compression play a more important role in unionised than in non-unionised firms.