Search

This paper analyzes the performance of migrants on the German labor market and its dependence on the tasks performed on their jobs. Recent work suggests quantifying the imperfect substitutability relationship between migrants and natives as a measure for the hurdles migrants have to face. Our theoretical work adopts that migrant shares are very heterogeneous across firms which is hard to reconcile with an aggregate production function. We argue that the ability to integrate migrants may form a competitive advantage for firms. We show in a Melitz-type framework that the output reaction to wage changes varies across firms. Hence, substitution elasticities of an aggregate production function can be quite different from those individual firms are faced with. Finally we estimate elasticities of substitution for different aggregate CES-nested production functions for Germany between 1993 and 2008 using administrative data and taking into account the task approach. We find significant variation in the substitutability between migrants and natives across qualification levels and tasks. We show that especially interactive tasks seem to impose hurdles for migrants on the German labor market.

"Die geographische Verteilung und die Persistenz (das Beharrungsvermögen von Schocks) von regionalen bzw. lokalen Arbeitslosenquoten in heterogenen Volkswirtschaften (wie bspw. Deutschland) war in den vergangenen Jahren Gegenstand zahlreicher theoretischer und empirischer Studien. Besonderer Augenmerk lag auf den dynamischen Anpassungsprozessen der Arbeitslosigkeit und am durchschnittlichen Grad der Abhängigkeit der gegenwärtigen Arbeitslosigkeit (alternativ auch des GDP) von ihrer Verteilung in der Vergangenheit. Hier präsentieren wir einen neuen ökonometrischen Ansatz zur Analyse der Persistenz der Arbeitslosigkeit, welcher der regionalen Heterogenität und der räumlichen Autokorrelation in den Niveaus und der Dynamik Rechnung trägt. Zunächst diskutieren wir die Verwendung eines räumlichen Filters als Substitut für Fixe Effekte in einem Panel-Schätzansatz. Der räumliche Filter dient als Proxy für regionsspezifische Information (z.B. bzgl. der Ausstattung an natürlichen Ressourcen oder bzgl. der Größe des Marktes im Einzugsgebiet), die üblicherweise in fixen Effekten aufgefangen werden; analoges gilt für die Filtermodellierung der heterogenen Dynamik. Das vorgestellte Verfahren bietet den Vorteil, dass der räumliche Filter -durch parameter-sparsames Auffangen der Information, die räumliche Korrelation erzeugt- die Zahl der Freiheitsgrade erhöht, gleichzeitig auf zeitkonstante räumliche Korrelation in den Residuen kontrolliert und Einsicht gibt in die räumlichen Muster der regionalen Anpassungsprozesse. Es werden verschiedene Untersuchungen bzgl. der regionalen Muster in den heterogenen autoregressiven Parametern dargestellt, die mit Arbeitslosigkeitsdaten für die deutschen Kreise geschätzt werden. In der regionalen Arbeitslosigkeit finden wir einen allgemein hohen, dennoch recht heterogenen Grad an Persistenz." (Autorenreferat) "The geographical distribution and persistence of regional/local unemployment rates in heterogeneous economies (such as Germany) have been, in recent years, the subject of various theoretical and empirical studies. Several researchers have shown an interest in analysing the dynamic adjustment processes of unemployment and the average degree of dependence of the current unemployment rates or gross domestic product from the ones observed in the past. In this paper, we present a new econometric approach to the study of regional unemployment persistence, in order to account for spatial heterogeneity and/or spatial autocorrelation in both the levels and the dynamics of unemployment. First, we propose an econometric procedure suggesting the use of spatial filtering techniques as a substitute for fixed effects in a panel estimation framework. The spatial filter computed here is a proxy for spatially distributed region-specific information (e.g., the endowment of natural resources, or the size of the "home market") that is usually incorporated in the fixed effects parameters. The same argument applies for the spatial filter modelling of the heterogenous dynamics. The advantages of our proposed procedure are that the spatial filter, by incorporating region-specific information that generates spatial autocorrelation, frees up degrees of freedom, simultaneously corrects for time-stable spatial autocorrelation in the residuals, and provides insights about the spatial patterns in regional adjustment processes. We present several experiments in order to investigate the spatial pattern of the heterogeneous autoregressive parameters estimated for unemployment data for German NUTS-3 regions. We find widely heterogeneous but generally high persistence in regional unemployment rates." (author's abstract)

In this paper we analyze the consequences of small labour-market entry cohorts on (un)employment in Western Germany. From a theoretical point of view, small entry cohorts may on the one hand reduce unemployment due to "inverse cohort crowding" or on the other hand increase unemployment if companies reduce jobs disproportionately. Empirically, several studies on cohort crowding for the USA also provide ambiguous evidence regarding the direction of the effect: labour markets may become tighter or less tight with the size of the entering cohort. The European labour market reaction on demographic changes is even less clear and the German case is especially interesting: Given the sharp decline in birth rates since the beginning of the 1970s and the relatively rigid labour market constitution, the German reaction is likely to differ from the US experience. In order to study the effect of cohort size on (un)employment, we use regional population data from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany and social security and unemployment data from the Federal Employment Agency and the IAB for the years 1978 to 2008. We account for the likely endogeneity of cohort size due to migration of the (young) workforce, using lagged birth rates as instruments. In addition, we allow for spatial autocorrelation across western German regions. Our results are good news for the (Western) German labour market: small entry cohorts are indeed likely to decrease the overall unemployment rate and thus to improve the situation of job-seekers, given the stability of the historical effect. Accordingly, the employment rate will, according to our results, increase.