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This paper reports estimates of the elasticity of taxable income with respect to the net-of-tax rate for New Zealand taxpayers. The relative stability of the New Zealand personal income tax system, in terms of marginal rates, thresholds and the tax base, provides helpful conditions for deriving these estimates. The elasticity of taxable income was estimated to be substantially higher for the highest income groups. Generally it was higher for men than for women. Changes in the timing of income flows for the higher income recipients were found to be an important response to the announcement of a new higher-rate bracket. The marginal welfare costs of personal income taxation were consistent across years, being relatively small for all but the higher tax brackets. For the top marginal rate bracket of 39 per cent, the welfare cost of raising an extra dollar of tax revenue was estimated to be well in excess of a dollar. Furthermore, for the top bracket the marginal tax rate was often found to exceed the revenue-maximising tax rate.

This paper assesses the impact of government fiscal policies on income inequality in Asia. It discusses the role and effectiveness of redistributive fiscal policies and quantifies the effects of taxation and government expenditure on income distributions. Panel estimation for 150 countries with data between 1970 and 2009 confirms international empirical findings for Asia. Tax systems tend to be progressive but government expenditures are a more effective tool for redistributing income. Moreover, the results suggest some distinctive differential distributive effect for government expenditure on social protection in Asia. Social protection spending appears to increase income inequality, whereas it reduces it in the rest of the world. Also, adversely affecting the distribution of income in Asia is government expenditure on housing. Some options for improving the effectiveness of fiscal policies in Asia are discussed.

This paper examines the effects of fiscal policy, measured by changes in government spending and net tax (government tax revenue less transfer payments), on New Zealand GDP. The framework of analysis is a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model of the New Zealand economy, employing and extending estimation techniques used by Blanchard and Perotti (2002). This model is then used to examine the dynamic effects of changes in government spending, taxes and transfers on GDP and the contributions of discretionary fiscal policy to New Zealand business cycles.

The purpose of this paper is to compare New Zealand's production structure in the mid-1990s to that in other OECD countries using input output analysis. Comparable inter industry transactions tables to the New Zealand data are available for Australia, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Norway and the United Kingdom. The composition of total supply and value added is examined across countries. Backward and forward linkages, indices of industry interconnectedness, a value added production multiplier, a cumulated primary input coefficient for compensation of employees and a measure of import content of final demand output are calculated, taking into account direct and indirect transactions. New Zealand's industrial structure is broadly similar to that in other OECD countries. Some differences arise as certain industries are more important in some countries. New Zealand's exports appear to be more diversified and have a large value added content. Moreover, the return to capital, as measured by the share of gross operating surplus in value added, is high.

Macroeconomic models currently used by policy makers generally assume that the workings of financial markets can be fully summarised by financial prices, because the Modigliani and Miller (1958) theorem holds. This paper argues that these models are too limited in describing how monetary policy (and other) shocks are transmitted to the economy and points to new directions. The models are too limited because they disregard an information asymmetry between borrowers and lenders and the importance of financial intermediaries not only for individual depositors but the economy as a whole. Incorporating financial market interactions into macroeconomic models will enhance the understanding of the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy and other shocks.

This paper investigates changes in the production structure of the New Zealand economy using input output data. The analysis is undertaken at the 25-industry level using inter industry transactions for 1971-72, 1977-78, 1981-82, 1986-87, 1990-91 and 1994-95. Changes in the composition of gross output and value added are examined. Backward and forward linkages, indices of industry interconnectedness, a value added production multiplier, a cumulated primary input coefficient for compensation of employees and a measure of import content of final demand output are calculated, taking into account both direct and indirect transactions. The results suggest that some industries have been subject to large structural change and that a shift in New Zealand's pattern of industrial activity has occurred. These changes will have affected the transmission and propagation of shocks in the economy.

This paper constructs a composite index of leading indicators of New Zealand employment. The choice of variables and their weights in the composite index are determined by their concordance with employment. The composite index is included in an indicator model to forecast quarterly employment growth. The indicator model explains about 67 percent of the quarterly variation in employment, in sample, and correctly predicted the direction of next period employment almost 80 percent of the time, out of sample.

This paper investigates the production structure of the New Zealand business sector using the recently released 1996 input output tables. The analysis is undertaken at the most disaggregated level for which data are available, 126 industries. Indices of backward and forward linkages, measures of industry interconnectedness and a value added production multiplier are calculated. The ranking of industries by degree of connectedness depends on whether direct transactions or both direct and indirect transactions are considered. In 1996, wholesale and retail trade, air transport, services to transport and storage, central government administration, meat processing, and dairy product manufacturing had the strongest backward and forward links with other industries.

This paper examines the trends in saving in New Zealand. It considers different sources of information about saving and highlights issues with the measurement of saving. Illustrations are provided of the impact of adjusting saving for both the effects of inflation and the inclusion of some items of expenditure, which are typically counted as consumption. The difficulty of drawing clear implications for policy on the basis of our existing knowledge and data on saving and wealth levels in New Zealand is highlighted. An appendix to the paper includes a comprehensive set of data on New Zealand saving and related variables.

Household saving can be measured as either the difference between the flows of current income and expenditure, or through households' balance sheets as changes in the stocks of accumulated net wealth. This paper examines household saving in New Zealand and other OECD countries, with particular focus on the stock of net wealth. The ratio of real assets to disposable income in New Zealand is close to OECD levels. However, household financial net wealth as a proportion of disposable income has been falling in New Zealand since the late 1980s, whereas it has been rising in other OECD countries. As a result, housing assets in New Zealand have become an increasing share of households' wealth portfolios. The implied savings rate from households' balance sheets is significantly higher than the flow measure. Moreover, it follows the business cycle more closely, consistent with consumption smoothing behaviour by households.

Concern has been raised by an apparent lack of saving in New Zealand. It is often argued that policies which foster savings are important, as higher savings will contribute to higher economic growth. This paper investigates the link between saving, investment and growth. In particular, it focuses on issues potentially important in an open economy such as New Zealand. Theory predicts that increased total saving will lead to higher investment and output. In an open economy, total saving comprises saving by domestic agents (government, firms and households) plus foreign saving. Diversified portfolios, large inflows of foreign investment into New Zealand and investment rates comparable to those in other OECD countries suggest that New Zealand, so far, has been able to access foreign saving to meet investment demands. Domestic saving does not appear to have constrained investment and hence growth.