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The airline industry is moving toward proactive risk management, which aims to identify and mitigate risks before accidents occur. However, existing methods for such efforts are limited. They rely on predefined criteria to identify risks, leaving emergent issues undetected. This paper presents a new method, cluster-based anomaly detection to detect abnormal flights, which can support domain experts in detecting anomalies and associated risks from routine airline operations. The new method, enabled by data from the flight data recorder, applies clustering techniques to detect abnormal flights of unique data patterns. Compared with existing methods, the new method no longer requires predefined criteria or domain knowledge. Tests were conducted using two sets of operational data consisting of 365 B777 flights and 25,519 A320 flights. The performance of cluster-based anomaly detection to detect abnormal flights was compared with those of multiple kernel anomaly detection, which is another data-driven anomaly ...

Data stream classification poses many challenges to the data mining community. In this paper, we address four such major challenges, namely, infinite length, concept-drift, concept-evolution, and feature-evolution. Since a data stream is theoretically infinite in length, it is impractical to store and use all the historical data for training. Concept-drift is a common phenomenon in data streams, which occurs as a result of changes in the underlying concepts. Concept-evolution occurs as a result of new classes evolving in the stream. Feature-evolution is a frequently occurring process in many streams, such as text streams, in which new features (i.e., words or phrases) appear as the stream progresses. Most existing data stream classification techniques address only the first two challenges, and ignore the latter two. In this paper, we propose an ensemble classification framework, where each classifier is equipped with a novel class detector, to address concept-drift and concept-evolution. To address feature-evolution, we propose a feature set homogenization technique. We also enhance the novel class detection module by making it more adaptive to the evolving stream, and enabling it to detect more than one novel class at a time. Comparison with state-of-the-art data stream classification techniques establishes the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Regression problems on massive data sets are ubiquitous in many application domains including the Internet, earth and space sciences, and finances. Gaussian Process regression (GPR) is a popular technique for modeling the input–output relations of a set of variables under the assumption that the weight vector has a Gaussian prior. However, it is challenging to apply GPR to large data sets since prediction based on the learned model requires inversion of an order n kernel matrix. Approximate solutions for sparse Gaussian Processes have been proposed for sparse problems. However, in almost all cases, these solution techniques are agnostic to the input domain and do not preserve the similarity structure in the data. As a result, although these solutions sometimes provide excellent accuracy, the models do not have interpretability. Such interpretable sparsity patterns are very important for many applications. We propose a new technique for sparse GPR that allows us to compute a parsimonious model while preserving the interpretability of the sparsity structure in the data. We discuss how the inverse kernel matrix used in Gaussian Process prediction gives valuable domain information and then adapt the inverse covariance estimation from Gaussian graphical models to estimate the Gaussian kernel. We solve the optimization problem using the alternating direction method of multipliers that is amenable to parallel computation. We compare the performance of this algorithm to different existing methods for sparse covariance regression in terms of both speed and accuracy. We demonstrate the performance of our method in terms of accuracy, scalability, and interpretability on two different satellite data sets from the climate domain. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Statistical Analysis and Data Mining 6: 205–220, 2013

A large portion of real world data is either text or structured (e.g., relational) data. Moreover, such data objects are often linked together (e.g., structured specification of products linking with the corresponding product descriptions and customer comments). Even for text data such as news data, typed entities can be extracted with entity extraction tools. The EventCube project constructs TextCube and TopicCube from interconnected structured and text data (or from text data via entity extraction and dimension building), and performs multidimensional search and analysis on such datasets, in an informative, powerful, and user-friendly manner. This proposed EventCube demo will show the power of the system not only on the originally designed ASRS (Aviation Safety Report System) data sets, but also on news datasets collected from multiple news agencies, and academic datasets constructed from the DBLP and web data. The system has high potential to be extended in many powerful ways and serve as a general platform for search, OLAP (online analytical processing) and data mining on integrated text and structured data. After the system demo in the conference, the system will be put on the web for public access and evaluation.

This paper presents a method of feature extraction in the context of aviation data analysis. The underlying algorithm utilizes a feature extraction algorithm called symbolic dynamic filtering (SDF) that was recently published. In SDF, time-series data are partitioned for generating symbol sequences that, in turn, construct probabilistic finite state automata (PFSA) to serve as features for pattern classification. The SDF-based algorithm of feature extraction, which enjoys both flexibility of implementation and computational efficiency, is directly applicable to detection, classification, and prediction of anomalies and faults. The results of analysis with real-world flight recorder data show that the SDF-based features can be derived at a desired level of abstraction from the information embedded in the time-series data. The performance of the proposed SDF-based feature extraction is compared with that of standard temporal feature extraction for anomaly detection. Our study on flight recorder data shows that SDF-based features can enable discovering unique anomalous flights and improve the performance of the detection algorithm. We also theoretically show that under certain conditions it may be possible to achive a better or comparable time complexity with SDF based features.

Multivariate Time-Series (MTS) are ubiquitous, and are generated in areas as disparate as sensor recordings in aerospace systems, music and video streams, medical monitoring, and financial systems. Domain experts are often interested in searching for interesting multivariate patterns from these MTS databases which can contain up to several gigabytes of data. Surprisingly, research on MTS search is very limited. Most existing work only supports queries with the same length of data, or queries on a fixed set of variables. In this paper, we propose an efficient and flexible subsequence search framework for massive MTS databases, that, for the first time, enables querying on any subset of variables with arbitrary time delays between them. We propose two provably correct algorithms to solve this problem #x2014; (1) an R*-tree Based Search (RBS) which uses Minimum Bounding Rectangles (MBR) to organize the subsequences, and (2) a List Based Search (LBS) algorithm which uses sorted lists for indexing. We demonstrate the performance of these algorithms using two large MTS databases from the aviation domain, each containing several millions of observations. Both these tests show that our algorithms have very high prune rates (>95%) thus needing actual disk access for only less than 5% of the observations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first flexible MTS search algorithm capable of subsequence search on any subset of variables. Moreover, MTS subsequence search has never been attempted on datasets of the size we have used in this paper.

Regression problems on massive data sets are ubiquitous in many application domains including the Internet, earth and space sciences, and finances. In many cases, regression algorithms such as linear regression or neural networks attempt to fit the target variable as a function of the input variables without regard to the underlying joint distribution of the variables. As a result, these global models are not sensitive to variations in the local structure of the input space. Several algorithms, including the mixture of experts model, classification and regression trees (CART), and others have been developed, motivated by the fact that a variability in the local distribution of inputs may be reflective of a significant change in the target variable. While these methods can handle the non-stationarity in the relationships to varying degrees, they are often not scalable and, therefore, not used in large scale data mining applications. In this paper we develop Block-GP, a Gaussian Process regression framework for multimodal data, that can be an order of magnitude more scalable than existing state-of-the-art nonlinear regression algorithms. The framework builds local Gaussian Processes on semantically meaningful partitions of the data and provides higher prediction accuracy than a single global model with very high confidence. The method relies on approximating the covariance matrix of the entire input space by smaller covariance matrices that can be modeled independently, and can therefore be parallelized for faster execution. Theoretical analysis and empirical studies on various synthetic and real data sets show high accuracy and scalability of Block-GP compared to existing nonlinear regression techniques.

The world-wide aviation system is one of the most complex dynamical systems ever developed and is generating data at an extremely rapid rate. Most modern commercial aircraft record several hundred flight parameters including information from the guidance, navigation, and control systems, the avionics and propulsion systems, and the pilot inputs into the aircraft. These parameters may be continuous measurements or binary or categorical measurements recorded in one second intervals for the duration of the flight. Currently, most approaches to aviation safety are reactive, meaning that they are designed to react to an aviation safety incident or accident. In this paper, we discuss a novel approach based on the theory of multiple kernel learning to detect potential safety anomalies in very large data bases of discrete and continuous data from world-wide operations of commercial fleets. We pose a general anomaly detection problem which includes both discrete and continuous data streams, where we assume that the discrete streams have a causal influence on the continuous streams. We also assume that atypical sequences of events in the discrete streams can lead to off-nominal system performance. We discuss the application domain, novel algorithms, and also discuss results on real-world data sets. Our algorithm uncovers operationally significant events in high dimensional data streams in the aviation industry which are not detectable using state of the art methods.

Consider a scenario in which the data owner has some private or sensitive data and wants a data miner to access them for studying important patterns without revealing the sensitive information. Privacy-preserving data mining aims to solve this problem by randomly transforming the data prior to their release to the data miners. Previous works only considered the case of linear data perturbations - additive, multiplicative, or a combination of both - for studying the usefulness of the perturbed output. In this paper, we discuss nonlinear data distortion using potentially nonlinear random data transformation and show how it can be useful for privacy-preserving anomaly detection from sensitive data sets. We develop bounds on the expected accuracy of the nonlinear distortion and also quantify privacy by using standard definitions. The highlight of this approach is to allow a user to control the amount of privacy by varying the degree of nonlinearity. We show how our general transformation can be used for anomaly detection in practice for two specific problem instances: a linear model and a popular nonlinear model using the sigmoid function. We also analyze the proposed nonlinear transformation in full generality and then show that, for specific cases, it is distance preserving. A main contribution of this paper is the discussion between the invertibility of a transformation and privacy preservation and the application of these techniques to outlier detection. The experiments conducted on real-life data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.

This paper describes a local and distributed expectation maximization algorithm for learning parameters of Gaussian mixture models (GMM) in large peer-to-peer (P2P) environments. The algorithm can be used for a variety of well-known data mining tasks in distributed environments such as clustering, anomaly detection, target tracking, and density estimation to name a few, necessary for many emerging P2P applications in bioinformatics, webmining and sensor networks. Centralizing all or some of the data to build global models is impractical in such P2P environments because of the large number of data sources, the asynchronous nature of the P2P networks, and dynamic nature of the data/network. The proposed algorithm takes a two-step approach. In the monitoring phase, the algorithm checks if the model ‘quality’ is acceptable by using an efficient local algorithm. This is then used as a feedback loop to sample data from the network and rebuild the GMM when it is outdated. We present thorough experimental results to verify our theoretical claims.

NASA has some of the largest and most complex data sources in the world, with data sources ranging from the earth sciences, space sciences, and massive distributed engineering data sets from commercial aircraft and spacecraft. This talk will discuss some of the issues and algorithms developed to analyze and discover patterns in these data sets. We will also provide an overview of a large research program in Integrated Vehicle Health Management. The goal of this program is to develop advanced technologies to automatically detect, diagnose, predict, and mitigate adverse events during the flight of an aircraft. A case study will be presented on a recent data mining analysis performed to support the Flight Readiness Review of the Space Shuttle Mission STS-119.

Many existing complex space systems have a significant amount of historical maintenance and problem data bases that are stored in unstructured text forms. The problem that we address in this paper is the discovery of recurring anomalies and relationships between problem reports that may indicate larger systemic problems. We illustrate our techniques on data from discrepancy reports regarding software anomalies in the Space Shuttle. These free text reports are written by a number of different people, thus the emphasis and wording vary considerably. We test four automatic methods of anomaly detection in text that are popular in the current literature on text mining. The first method that we describe is k-means or Gaussian mixture model and its application to the term-document matrix. The second method is the Sammon nonlinear map, which projects high dimensional document vectors into two dimensions for visualization and clustering purposes. The third method is based on an analysis of the results of applying a clustering method, expectation maximization on a mixture of von Mises Fisher distributions that represents each document as a point on a high dimensional sphere. In this space, we perform clustering to obtain sets of similar documents. The results are derived from a new method known as spectral clustering, where vectors from the term-document matrix are embedded in a high dimensional space for clustering. The paper concludes with recommendations regarding the development of an operational text mining system for analysis of problem reports that arise from complex space systems. We also contrast such systems with general purpose text mining systems, illustrating the areas in which this system needs to be specified for the space domain

In the analysis and prediction of real-world systems, two of the key problems are nonstationarity (often in the form of switching between regimes), and overfitting (particularly serious for noisy processes). This article addresses these problems using gated experts, consisting of a (nonlinear) gating network, and several (also nonlinear) competing experts. Each expert learns to predict the conditional mean, and each expert adapts its width to match the noise level in its regime. The gating network learns to predict the probability of each expert, given the input. This article focuses on the case where the gating network bases its decision on information from the inputs. This can be contrasted to hidden Markov models where the decision is based on the previous state(s) (i.e. on the output of the gating network at the previous time step), as well as to averaging over several predictors. In contrast, gated experts soft-partition the input space, only learning to model their region. This article discusses the underlying statistical assumptions, derives the weight update rules, and compares the performance of gated experts to standard methods on three time series: (1) a computer-generated series, obtained by randomly switching between two nonlinear processes; (2) a time series from the Santa Fe Time Series Competition (the light intensity of a laser in chaotic state); and (3) the daily electricity demand of France, a real-world multivariate problem with structure on several time scales. The main results are: (1) the gating network correctly discovers the different regimes of the process; (2) the widths associated with each expert are important for the segmentation task (and they can be used to characterize the sub-processes); and (3) there is less overfitting compared to single networks (homogeneous multilayer perceptrons), since the experts learn to match their variances to the (local) noise levels. This can be viewed as matching the local complexity of the model to the local complexity of the data.