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The discharge of pathogens into urban recreational water bodies during combined sewer overflows (CSOs) pose a potential threat for public health which may increase in the future due to climate change. Improved methods are needed for predicting the impact of these effects on the microbiological urban river water quality and infection risks during recreational use. The aim of this study was to develop a novel probabilistic-deterministic modelling approach for this purpose building on physically plausible generated future rainfall time series. The approach consists of disaggregation and validation of daily precipitation time series from 21 regional climate models for a reference period (1971-2000, C20), a near-term future period (2021-2050, NTF) and a long-term future period (2071-2100, LTF) into sub-daily scale, and predicting the concentrations of enterococci and Giardia and Cryptosporidium, and infection risks during recreational use in the river downstream of the sewage emissions from CSOs. The approach was tested for an urban river catchment in Austria which is used for recreational activities (i.e. swimming, playing, wading, hand-to-mouth contact). According to a worst-case scenario (i.e. children bathing in the river), the 95th percentile infection risks for Giardia and Cryptosporidium range from 0.08 % in winter to 8 % per person and exposure event in summer for C20. The infection risk increase in the future is up to 0.8 log 10 for individual scenarios. The results imply that measures to prevent CSOs may be needed to ensure sustainable water safety. The approach is promising for predicting the effect of climate change on urban water safety requirements and for supporting the selection of sustainable mitigation measures. Future studies should focus on reducing the uncertainty of the predictions at local scale., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

We developed an innovative approach to estimate the occurrence and extent of fecal pollution sources for urban river catchments. The methodology consists of 1) catchment surveys complemented by literature data where needed for probabilistic estimates of daily produced fecal indicator (FIBs, E. coli, enterococci) and zoonotic reference pathogen numbers (Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium and Giardia) excreted by human and animal sources in a river catchment, 2) generating a hypothesis about the dominant sources of fecal pollution and selecting a source targeted monitoring design, and 3) verifying the results by comparing measured concentrations of the informed choice of parameters (i.e. chemical tracers, C. perfringensspores, and host-associated genetic microbial source tracking (MST) markers) in the river, and by multi-parametric correlation analysis. We tested the approach at a study area in Vienna, Austria. The daily produced microbial particle numbers according to the probabilistic estimates indicated that, for the dry weather scenario, the discharge of treated wastewater (WWTP) was the primary contributor to fecal pollution. For the wet weather scenario, 80-99 % of the daily produced FIBs and pathogens resulted from combined sewer overflows (CSOs) according to the probabilistic estimates. When testing our hypothesis in the river, the measured concentrations of the human genetic fecal marker were log 10 4 higher than for selected animal genetic fecal markers. Our analyses showed for the first-time statistical relationships between C. perfringens spores (used as conservative microbial tracer for communal sewage) and a human genetic fecal marker (i.e. HF183/BacR287) with the reference pathogen Giardia in river water (Spearman rank correlation: 0.78-0.83, p < 0.05. The developed approach facilitates urban water safety management and provides a robust basis for microbial fate and transport models and microbial infection risk assessment., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

To guarantee proper protection from fecally transmitted pathogen infections, drinking water wells should have a sufficiently large setback distance from potential sources of contamination, e.g. a nearby river. The aim of this study was to provide insight in regards to microbial contamination of groundwater under different flow velocities, which can vary over time due to changes in river stage, season or pumping rate. The effects of these changes, and how they affect removal parameters, are not completely understood. In this study, field tracer tests were carried out in a sandy gravel aquifer near Vienna, Austria to evaluate the ability of subsurface media to attenuate Bacillus subtilis spores, used as a surrogate for Cryptosporidium and Campylobacter. The hydraulic gradient between injection and extraction was controlled by changing the pumping rate (1, 10 l/s) of a pumping well at the test site, building upon previously published work in which tracer tests with a 5 l/s pumping rate were carried out. Attachment and detachment rate coefficients were determined using a HYDRUS-3D model and ranged from 0.12 to 0.76 and 0-0.0013 h -1 , respectively. Setback distances were calculated based on the 60-day travel time, as well as a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) approach, which showed similar results at this site; around 700 m at the highest pumping rate. Removal rates (λ) in the field tests ranged from 0.2 to 0.3 log/m, with lower pumping rates leading to higher removal. It was shown that scale must be taken into consideration when determining λ for the calculation of safe setback distances., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: Julia Derx, Gerhard Lindner reports financial support was provided by Vienna Science and Technology Fund. A.P. Blaschke reports financial support was provided by Austrian Academy of Sciences. Margaret Stevenson reports financial support was provided by Austrian Science Fund. Thomas Oudega, Gerhard Lindner reports equipment, drugs, or supplies was provided by Vienna Water Resource Systems Project., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Rivers are important for drinking water supply worldwide. However, they are often impacted by pathogen discharges via wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) and combined sewer overflows (CSO). To date, accurate predictions of the effects of future changes and pollution control measures on the microbiological water quality of rivers considering safe drinking water production are hindered due to the uncertainty of the pathogen source and transport variables. The aim of this study was to test an integrative approach for an improved understanding of these effects, i.e. climate change and population growth as well as enhanced treatment at WWTPs and/or prevention of CSOs. We applied a significantly extended version of QMRAcatch (v1.0 Python), a probabilistic-deterministic model that combines fate and transport modelling with quantitative microbial infection risk assessment. The impact of climatic changes until the period 2035-2049 was investigated by a conceptual semi-distributed hydrological model, based on regional climate model outputs. QMRAcatch was calibrated and validated using site- and source-specific data (human-associated genetic microbial source tracking marker and enterovirus). The study showed that the degree to which future changes affect drinking water safety strongly depends on the type and magnitude of faecal pollution sources and are thus highly site- and scenario-specific. For example, if the load of pathogens from WWTPs is reduced through enhanced treatment, climate-change driven increases in CSOs had a considerable impact. Preventing CSOs and installing enhanced treatment at the WWTPs together had the most significant positive effect. The simultaneous consideration of source apportionment and concentrations of reference pathogens, focusing on human-specific viruses (enterovirus, norovirus) and cross-comparison with bacterial and protozoan pathogens (Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium), was found crucial to quantify these effects. While demonstrated here for a large, wastewater-impacted river, the approach is applicable at other catchments and pollution sources. It allows assessing future changes and selecting suitable pollution control measures for long-term water safety planning., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)