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COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus, has raised significant interest in understanding potential cross-immunity mechanisms. Recent evidence suggests that T-cells associated with common cold coronaviruses (229E, NL63, OC43, HKU1) may provide some level of cross-immunity against SARS-CoV-2. It is also known that the prevalence of smokers among patients admitted to hospital for COVID-19 is lower than expected according to the corresponding country's smoking prevalence, which is known as smoker's paradox in COVID-19. No clear consensus to explain it has yet been reached. This phenomenon suggests a complex interaction between smoking and immune response. Nonetheless, very few works have studied the prevalence of smokers in those infected by common cold coronaviruses, and its relation to COVID-19 has not been investigated. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to study the prevalence of smokers among patients infected by common cold coronaviruses, and to compare them to the corresponding country's smoking prevalence. L'Abbé plots were used to visually assess the consistency of the observed effects across the different studies included in the meta-analysis. Additionally, significant differences were found in smoking prevalence among the various types of ccCoV, indicating the need for further research into the biological mechanisms driving these disparities. The results show that smoking prevalence is higher among those patients infected by these coronaviruses than in the general population (OR = 1.37, 95% CI: 0.81–2.33). A study was separately done for the four coronavirus types, and the prevalence of smokers was higher in three of the four than that corresponding to country, gender and study year: OC43 (OR = 1.93, 95% CI: 0.64–5.82); HKU1 (OR = 3.62, 95% CI: 1.21–10.85); NL63 (OR = 1.93, 95% CI: 0.64–5.82); 229E (OR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.50–1.90). The heterogeneity of the studies was assessed using the Cochrane Chi-squared test, I-squared (I2), and Tau-squared (τ2). This detailed statistical analysis enhances the robustness of our findings and highlights the variations in smoking prevalence among different ccCoVs. Our data suggest that COVID-19 might be less prevalent among smokers due to greater cross-immunity from a larger number or more recent infections by common cold coronaviruses than the non-smoking population, which would explain smoker's paradox in COVID-19. IMPLICATIONS. The low prevalence of current smokers among SARS-CoV-2 patients is a finding recurrently repeated, even leading to postulate the "smoker's paradox" in COVID-19. This fact compelled us to study the prevalence of smokers among patients infected by common cold coronaviruses, and to compare them to the corresponding country's smoking prevalence. Our data could explain smoker's paradox in COVID-19 by a greater cross immunity due to a larger number, or more recent infections by common cold coronaviruses than the non-smoking population. This manuscript allow understand potential unrevealed mechanism for low prevalence of current smokers among SARS-CoV-2 patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus, has raised significant interest in understanding potential cross-immunity mechanisms. Recent evidence suggests that T-cells associated with common cold coronaviruses (229E, NL63, OC43, HKU1) may provide some level of cross-immunity against SARS-CoV-2. It is also known that the prevalence of smokers among patients admitted to hospital for COVID-19 is lower than expected according to the corresponding country’s smoking prevalence, which is known as smoker’s paradox in COVID-19. No clear consensus to explain it has yet been reached. This phenomenon suggests a complex interaction between smoking and immune response. Nonetheless, very few works have studied the prevalence of smokers in those infected by common cold coronaviruses, and its relation to COVID-19 has not been investigated. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to study the prevalence of smokers among patients infected by common cold coronaviruses, and to compare them to the corresponding country’s smoking prevalence. L’Abbé plots were used to visually assess the consistency of the observed effects across the different studies included in the meta-analysis. Additionally, significant differences were found in smoking prevalence among the various types of ccCoV, indicating the need for further research into the biological mechanisms driving these disparities. The results show that smoking prevalence is higher among those patients infected by these coronaviruses than in the general population (OR = 1.37, 95% CI: 0.81–2.33). A study was separately done for the four coronavirus types, and the prevalence of smokers was higher in three of the four than that corresponding to country, gender and study year: OC43 (OR = 1.93, 95% CI: 0.64–5.82); HKU1 (OR = 3.62, 95% CI: 1.21–10.85); NL63 (OR = 1.93, 95% CI: 0.64–5.82); 229E (OR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.50–1.90). The heterogeneity of the studies was assessed using the Cochrane Chi-squared test, I-squared (I2), and Tau-squared (τ2). This detailed statistical analysis enhances the robustness of our findings and highlights the variations in smoking prevalence among different ccCoVs. Our data suggest that COVID-19 might be less prevalent among smokers due to greater cross-immunity from a larger number or more recent infections by common cold coronaviruses than the non-smoking population, which would explain smoker’s paradox in COVID-19. IMPLICATIONS. The low prevalence of current smokers among SARS-CoV-2 patients is a finding recurrently repeated, even leading to postulate the “smoker’s paradox” in COVID-19. This fact compelled us to study the prevalence of smokers among patients infected by common cold coronaviruses, and to compare them to the corresponding country’s smoking prevalence. Our data could explain smoker’s paradox in COVID-19 by a greater cross immunity due to a larger number, or more recent infections by common cold coronaviruses than the non-smoking population. This manuscript allow understand potential unrevealed mechanism for low prevalence of current smokers among SARS-CoV-2 patients.

BackgroundImmunity to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is now widespread; however, the degree of cross-immunity between SARS-CoV-2 and endemic, seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoVs) remains unclear.MethodsSARS-CoV-2 and HCoV cross-immunity was evaluated in adult participants enrolled in a US sub-study in the phase III, randomized controlled trial (NCT04516746) of AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) primary-series vaccination for one-year. Anti-HCoV spike-binding antibodies against HCoV-229E, HCoV-HKU1, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-NL63 were evaluated in participants following study dosing and, in the AZD1222 group, after a non-study third-dose booster. Timing of SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion (assessed via anti-nucleocapsid antibody levels) and incidence of COVID-19 were evaluated in those who received AZD1222 primary-series by baseline anti-HCoV titers.ResultsWe evaluated 2,020/21,634 participants in the AZD1222 group and 1,007/10,816 in the placebo group. At the one-year data cutoff (March 11, 2022) mean duration of follow up was 230.9 (SD: 106.36, range: 1–325) and 94.3 (74.12, 1–321) days for participants in the AZD1222 (n = 1,940) and placebo (n = 962) groups, respectively. We observed little elevation in anti-HCoV humoral titers post study-dosing or post-boosting, nor evidence of waning over time. The occurrence and timing of SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion and incidence of COVID-19 were not largely impacted by baseline anti-HCoV titers.ConclusionWe found limited evidence for cross-immunity between SARS-CoV-2 and HCoVs following AZD1222 primary series and booster vaccination. Susceptibility to future emergence of novel coronaviruses will likely persist despite a high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 immunity in global populations.

The newly discovered SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant is the most antigenically unique SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern to date, which is presently prevalent across most of the world. According to a number of studies, the Omicron variant causes a restricted immune response after infection. A critical component of study is determining the efficacy of Omicron-induced immunity and if it is cross-protective against other variants.

Abstract Background The general human immune responses similarity against different coronaviruses may reflect some degree of cross-immunity, whereby exposure to one coronavirus may confer partial immunity to another. The aim was to determine whether previous MERS-CoV infection was associated with a lower risk of subsequent COVID-19 disease and its related outcomes. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study among all patients screened for MERS-CoV at a tertiary care hospital in Saudi Arabia between 2012 and early 2020. Both MERS-CoV positive and negative patients were followed up from early 2020 to September 2021 for developing COVID-19 infection confirmed by RT-PCR testing. Results A total of 397 participants followed for an average 15 months during COVID-19 pandemic (4.9 years from MERS-CoV infection). Of the 397 participants, 93 (23.4%) were positive for MERS-CoV at baseline; 61 (65.6%) of the positive cases were symptomatic. Out of 397, 48 (12.1%) participants developed COVID-19 by the end of the follow-up period. Cox regression analysis adjusted for age, gender, and major comorbidity showed a marginally significant lower risk of COVID-19 disease (hazard ratio = 0.533, p = 0.085) and hospital admission (hazard ratio = 0.411, p = 0.061) in patients with positive MERS-CoV. Additionally, the risk of COVID-19 disease was further reduced and became significant in patients with symptomatic MERS-CoV infection (hazard ratio = 0.324, p = 0.034) and hospital admission (hazard ratio = 0.317, p = 0.042). Conclusions The current findings may indicate a partial cross-immunity, where patients with symptomatic MERS-CoV have a lower risk of future COVID-19 infection and related hospitalization. The present results may need further examination nationally using immunity markers.

The emergence and re-emergence of pathogens is a public-health concern, which has become more evident after the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the monkeypox outbreaks in early 2022. Given that vaccines are the more effective and affordable tools to control infectious diseases, the authors reviewed two heterologous effects of vaccines: the trained immunity and the cross-reactivity. Trained immunity, provided by attenuated vaccines, was exemplified in this article by the decreased the burden of COVID-19 in populations with high Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) coverage. Cross-reactive responses were exemplified here by the studies which suggested that vaccinia could help controlling the monkeypox outbreak, because of common epitopes shared by orthopoxviruses. Although modern vaccination is likely to use subunit vaccines, the authors discussed how adjuvants might be the key to induce trained immunity and improve cross-reactive responses, ensuring that heterologous effects would improve the vaccine’s response.

We introduce a two-strain model with asymmetric temporary immunity periods and partial cross-immunity. We derive explicit conditions for competitive exclusion and coexistence of the strains depending on the strain-specific basic reproduction numbers, temporary immunity periods, and degree of cross-immunity. The results of our bifurcation analysis suggest that, even when two strains share similar basic reproduction numbers and other epidemiological parameters, a disparity in temporary immunity periods and partial or complete cross-immunity can provide a significant competitive advantage. To analyze the dynamics, we introduce a quasi-steady state reduced model which assumes the original strain remains at its endemic steady state. We completely analyze the resulting reduced planar hybrid switching system using linear stability analysis, planar phase-plane analysis, and the Bendixson-Dulac criterion. We validate both the full and reduced models with COVID-19 incidence data, focusing on the Delta (B.1.617.2), Omicron (B.1.1.529), and Kraken (XBB.1.5) variants. These numerical studies suggest that, while early novel strains of COVID-19 had a tendency toward dramatic takeovers and extinction of ancestral strains, more recent strains have the capacity for co-existence.

Abstract Since SARS-CoV-2 was first reported in late 2019, multiple variations of the original virus have emerged. Each variant harbors accumulations of mutations, particularly within the spike glycoprotein, that are associated with increased viral transmissibility and escape immunity. The different mutations in the spike protein of different variants shape the subsequent antibody and T cell responses, such that exposure to different spike proteins can result in reduced or enhanced responses to heterologous variants further down the line. Globally, people have been exposed and re-exposed to multiple variations of the Ancestral strain, including the five variants of concerns. Studies have shown that the protective immune response of an individual is influenced by which strain or combination of strains they are exposed to. The initial exposure to a specific strain may also shape their subsequent immune patterns and response to later infections with a heterologous virus. Most immunological observations were carried out early during the pandemic when the Ancestral strain was circulating. However, SARS-CoV-2 variants exhibit varying patterns of disease severity, waning immunity, immune evasion and sensitivity to therapeutics. Here we investigated the cross-protection in hamsters previously infected with a variant of concern (VOC) and subsequently re-infected with a heterologous variant. We also determined if cross-protection and immunity were dependent on the specific virus to which the hamster was first exposed. We further profiled the host cytokine response induced by each SARS-CoV-2 variants as well as subsequent to re-infection. A comparative analysis of the three VOCs revealed that Alpha variant was the most pathogenic VOC to emerge. We showed that naturally acquired immunity protected hamsters from subsequent re-infection with heterologous SARS-CoV-2 variant, regardless which variant the animal was first exposed to. Our study supports observations that heterologous infection of different SARS-CoV-2 variants do not exacerbate disease in subsequent re-infections. The continual emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants mandates a better understanding of cross-protection and immune imprinting in infected individuals. Such information is essential to guide vaccine strategy and public policy to emerging SARS-CoV-2 VOCs and future novel pandemic coronaviruses.

Introduction. The WHO regularly updates influenza vaccine recommendations to maximize their match with circulating strains. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of the influenza A vaccine, specifically its H3N2 component, has been low for several seasons. The aim of the study is to develop a mathematical model of cross-immunity based on the array of published WHO hemagglutination inhibition assay (HAI) data. Materials and methods. In this study, a mathematical model was proposed, based on finding, using regression analysis, the dependence of HAI titers on substitutions in antigenic sites of sequences. The computer program we developed can process data (GISAID, NCBI, etc.) and create real-time databases according to the set tasks. Results. Based on our research, an additional antigenic site F was identified. The difference in 1.6 times the adjusted R2, on subsets of viruses grown in cell culture and grown in chicken embryos, demonstrates the validity of our decision to divide the original data array by passage histories. We have introduced the concept of a degree of homology between two arbitrary strains, which takes the value of a function depending on the Hamming distance, and it has been shown that the regression results significantly depend on the choice of function. The provided analysis showed that the most significant antigenic sites are A, B, and E. The obtained results on predicted HAI titers showed a good enough result, comparable to similar work by our colleagues. Conclusion. The proposed method could serve as a useful tool for future forecasts, with further study to confirm its sustainability.

ABSTRACT Numerous clinical parameters link to severe coronavirus disease 2019, but factors that prevent symptomatic disease remain unknown. We investigated the impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and endemic human coronavirus (HCoV) antibody responses on symptoms in a longitudinal children cohort (n = 2,917) and a cross-sectional cohort including children and adults (n = 882), all first exposed to SARS-CoV-2 (March 2020 to March 2021) in Switzerland. Saliva (n = 4,993) and plasma (n = 7,486) antibody reactivity to the four HCoVs (subunit S1 [S1]) and SARS-CoV-2 (S1, receptor binding domain, subunit S2 [S2], nucleocapsid protein) was determined along with neutralizing activity against SARS-CoV-2 Wuhan, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron (BA.2) in a subset of individuals. Inferred recent SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with a strong correlation between mucosal and systemic SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike responses. Individuals with pre-existing HCoV-S1 reactivity exhibited significantly higher antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 in both plasma (IgG regression coefficients = 0.20, 95% CI = [0.09, 0.32], P < 0.001) and saliva (IgG regression coefficient = 0.60, 95% CI = [0.088, 1.11], P = 0.025). Saliva neutralization activity was modest but surprisingly broad, retaining activity against Wuhan (median NT50 = 32.0, 1Q–3Q = [16.4, 50.2]), Alpha (median NT50 = 34.9, 1Q–3Q = [26.0, 46.6]), and Delta (median NT50 = 28.0, 1Q–3Q = [19.9, 41.7]). In line with a rapid mucosal defense triggered by cross-reactive HCoV immunity, asymptomatic individuals presented with higher pre-existing HCoV-S1 activity in plasma (IgG HKU1, odds ratio [OR] = 0.53, 95% CI = [0.29,0.97], P = 0.038) and saliva (total HCoV, OR = 0.55, 95% CI = [0.33, 0.91], P = 0.019) and higher SARS-CoV-2 reactivity in saliva (IgG S2 fold change = 1.26, 95% CI = [1.03, 1.54], P = 0.030). By investigating the systemic and mucosal immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 and HCoVs in a population without prior exposure to SARS-CoV-2 or vaccination, we identified specific antibody reactivities associated with lack of symptom development.IMPORTANCEKnowledge of the interplay between human coronavirus (HCoV) immunity and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is critical to understanding the coexistence of current endemic coronaviruses and to building knowledge potential future zoonotic coronavirus transmissions. This study, which retrospectively analyzed a large cohort of individuals first exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in Switzerland in 2020–2021, revealed several key findings. Pre-existing HCoV immunity, particularly mucosal antibody responses, played a significant role in improving SARS-CoV-2 immune response upon infection and reducing symptoms development. Mucosal neutralizing activity against SARS-CoV-2, although low in magnitude, retained activity against SARS-CoV-2 variants underlining the importance of maintaining local mucosal immunity to SARS-CoV-2. While the cross-protective effect of HCoV immunity was not sufficient to block infection by SARS-CoV-2, the present study revealed a remarkable impact on limiting symptomatic disease. These findings support the feasibility of generating pan-protective coronavirus vaccines by inducing potent mucosal immune responses.

Background: The general human immune responses similarity against different coronaviruses may reflect some degree of cross-immunity, whereby exposure to one coronavirus may confer partial immunity to another. The aim was to determine whether previous MERS-CoV infection was associated with a lower risk of subsequent COVID-19 disease and its related outcomes. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among all patients screened for MERS-CoV at a tertiary care hospital in Saudi Arabia between 2012 and early 2020. Both MERS-CoV positive and negative patients were followed up from early 2020 to September 2021 for developing COVID-19 infection confirmed by RT-PCR testing. Results: A total of 397 participants followed for an average 15 months during COVID-19 pandemic (4.9 years from MERS-CoV infection). Of the 397 participants, 93 (23.4%) were positive for MERS-CoV at baseline; 61 (65.6%) of the positive cases were symptomatic. Out of 397, 48 (12.1%) participants developed COVID-19 by the end of the follow-up period. Cox regression analysis adjusted for age, gender, and major comorbidity showed a marginally significant lower risk of COVID-19 disease (hazard ratio = 0.533, p = 0.085) and hospital admission (hazard ratio = 0.411, p = 0.061) in patients with positive MERS-CoV. Additionally, the risk of COVID-19 disease was further reduced and became significant in patients with symptomatic MERS-CoV infection (hazard ratio = 0.324, p = 0.034) and hospital admission (hazard ratio = 0.317, p = 0.042). Conclusions: The current findings may indicate a partial cross-immunity, where patients with symptomatic MERS-CoV have a lower risk of future COVID-19 infection and related hospitalization. The present results may need further examination nationally using immunity markers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The time-honored paradigm in the theory of virulence evolution assumes a positive relation between infectivity and harmfulness. However, the etiology of respiratory diseases yields a negative relation, with diseases of the lower respiratory tract being less infective and more harmful. We explore the evolutionary consequences in a simple model incorporating cross-immunity between disease strains that diminishes with their distance in the respiratory tract, assuming that docking rate follows the match between the local mix of cell surface types and the pathogen's surface and cross-immunity the similarity of the pathogens' surfaces. The assumed relation between fitness components causes virulent strains infecting the lower airways to evolve to milder more transmissible variants. Limited cross-immunity, generally, causes a readiness to diversify that increases with host population density. In respiratory diseases that diversity will be highest in the upper respiratory tract. More tentatively, emerging respiratory diseases are likely to start low and virulent, to evolve up, and become milder. Our results extend to a panoply of realistic generalizations of the disease's ecology to including additional epitope axes. These extensions allow us to apply our results quantitatively to elucidate the differences in diversification between rhino- and coronavirus caused common colds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A high mutation rate of the RNA virus results in the emergence of novel mutants that may escape the immunity activated by the original (wild-type) strain. However, many of them go extinct because of the stochasticity due to the small initial number of infected cells. In a previous paper, we studied the probability of escaping stochastic extinction when the novel mutant has a faster rate of infection and when it is resistant to a drug that suppresses the wild-type virus. In this study, we examine the effect of escaping the immune reaction of the host. Based on a continuous-time branching process with time-dependent rates, we conclude the chance for a mutant strain to be established p t decreases with time t since the wild-type infection when the mutant is produced. The number of novel mutants that can escape extinction risk has a peak soon after the wild-type infection. The number of novel escape mutations produced per patient in the early phase of host infection is small both for very strong and very weak immune responses, and it attains its maximum value when immune activity is of an intermediate strength. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multi-strain diseases lead to the development of some degree of cross-immunity among people. In the present paper, we propose a multi-delayed SIRC epidemic model with incubation and immunity time delays. Here we aim to examine and investigate the effects of incubation delay (τ 1) and the impact of vaccine which provides partial/cross-immunity with immunity delay parameter ( τ 2 ) on the disease dynamics. Also, we study the impact of the strength of cross-immunity (σ) on the disease prevalence. The positivity and boundedness of the solutions of the epidemic model have been established. Two different types of equilibrium points (disease-free and endemic) have been deduced. Expression for basic reproduction number has been derived. The stability conditions and Hopf-bifurcation about both the equilibrium points in the absence and presence of both delays have been discussed. The Lyapunov stability conditions about the endemic equilibrium point have been established. Numerical simulations have been performed to support our analytical results. We quantitatively demonstrate how oscillations and Hopf-bifurcation allow time delays to alter the dynamics of the system. The combined impacts of both the delays on disease prevalence has been studied. Through parameter sensitivity analysis, we observe that the infected population decreases with an increase in vaccination rate and the system starts to stabilize early with the increase in cross-immunity rate. Global sensitivity analysis for the basic reproduction number has been performed using Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficients techniques. The combined effect of vaccination rate with transmission rate and vaccination rate with re-infection probability (i.e. strength of cross-immunity) on R 0 have been discussed. Our research underlines the need to take cross-immunity and time delays into account in the epidemic model in order to better understand disease dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since SARS-CoV-2 was first reported in late 2019, multiple variations of the original virus have emerged. Each variant harbors accumulations of mutations, particularly within the spike glycoprotein, that are associated with increased viral transmissibility and escape immunity. The different mutations in the spike protein of different variants shape the subsequent antibody and T cell responses, such that exposure to different spike proteins can result in reduced or enhanced responses to heterologous variants further down the line. Globally, people have been exposed and re-exposed to multiple variations of the Ancestral strain, including the five variants of concerns. Studies have shown that the protective immune response of an individual is influenced by which strain or combination of strains they are exposed to. The initial exposure to a specific strain may also shape their subsequent immune patterns and response to later infections with a heterologous virus. Most immunological observations were carried out early during the pandemic when the Ancestral strain was circulating. However, SARS-CoV-2 variants exhibit varying patterns of disease severity, waning immunity, immune evasion and sensitivity to therapeutics. Here we investigated the cross-protection in hamsters previously infected with a variant of concern (VOC) and subsequently re-infected with a heterologous variant. We also determined if cross-protection and immunity were dependent on the specific virus to which the hamster was first exposed. We further profiled the host cytokine response induced by each SARS-CoV-2 variants as well as subsequent to re-infection. A comparative analysis of the three VOCs revealed that Alpha variant was the most pathogenic VOC to emerge. We showed that naturally acquired immunity protected hamsters from subsequent re-infection with heterologous SARS-CoV-2 variant, regardless which variant the animal was first exposed to. Our study supports observations that heterologous infection of different SARS-CoV-2 variants do not exacerbate disease in subsequent re-infections. The continual emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants mandates a better understanding of cross-protection and immune imprinting in infected individuals. Such information is essential to guide vaccine strategy and public policy to emerging SARS-CoV-2 VOCs and future novel pandemic coronaviruses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We studied the effect of transmissibility and vaccination on the time required for an emerging strain of an existing virus to dominate in the infected population using a simulation-based experiment. The emergent strain is assumed to be completely resistant to the available vaccine. A stochastic version of a modified SIR model for emerging viral strains was developed to simulate surveillance data for infections. The proportion of emergent viral strain infections among the infected was modeled using a logistic curve and the time to dominance (TTD) was recorded for each simulation. A factorial experiment was implemented to compare the TTD values for different transmissibility coefficients, vaccination rates, and initial vaccination coverage. We discovered a non-linear relationship between TTD and the relative transmissibility of the emergent strain for populations with low vaccination coverage. Furthermore, higher vaccination coverage and high vaccination rates in the population yielded significantly lower TTD values. Vaccinating susceptible individuals against the current strain increases the susceptible pool of the emergent virus, which leads to the emergent strain spreading faster and requiring less time to dominate the infected population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has posed a considerable threat to public health and global economies. SARS-CoV-2 has largely affected a vast world population and was declared a COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, with a substantial surge of SARS-CoV-2 infection affecting all aspects of the virus' natural course of infection and immunity. The cross-reactivity between the different coronaviruses is still a knowledge gap in the understanding of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This study aimed to investigate the impact of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 viral infections on immunoglobulin-IgG cross-reactivity. Our retrospective cohort study hypothesized the possible reactivation of immunity in individuals with a history of infection to Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) when infected with SARS-CoV-2. The total number of participants included was 34; among them, 22 (64.7%) were males, and 12 (35.29%) were females. The mean age of the participants was 40.3 ± 12.9 years. This study compared immunoglobulin (IgG) levels against SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV across various groups with various histories of infection. The results showed that a reactive borderline IgG against both MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 in participants with past infection to both viruses was 40% compared with 37.5% among those with past infection with MERS-CoV alone. Our study results establish that individuals infected with both SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV showed higher MERS-CoV IgG levels compared with those of individuals infected previously with MERS-CoV alone and compared with those of individuals in the control. The results further highlight cross-adaptive immunity between MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. Our study concludes that individuals with previous infections with both MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 showed significantly higher MERS-CoV IgG levels compared with those of individuals infected only with MERS-CoV and compared with those of individuals in the control, suggesting cross-adaptive immunity between MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social distancing and contact tracing, are important public health measures that can reduce pathogen transmission. In addition to playing a crucial role in suppressing transmission, NPIs influence pathogen evolution by mediating mutation supply, restricting the availability of susceptible hosts, and altering the strength of selection for novel variants. Yet it is unclear how NPIs might affect the emergence of novel variants that are able to escape pre-existing immunity (partially or fully), are more transmissible or cause greater mortality. We analyse a stochastic two-strain epidemiological model to determine how the strength and timing of NPIs affect the emergence of variants with similar or contrasting life-history characteristics to the wild type. We show that, while stronger and timelier NPIs generally reduce the likelihood of variant emergence, it is possible for more transmissible variants with high cross-immunity to have a greater probability of emerging at intermediate levels of NPIs. This is because intermediate levels of NPIs allow an epidemic of the wild type that is neither too small (facilitating high mutation supply), nor too large (leaving a large pool of susceptible hosts), to prevent a novel variant from becoming established in the host population. However, since one cannot predict the characteristics of a variant, the best strategy to prevent emergence is likely to be an implementation of strong, timely NPIs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Piscirickettsia salmonis, the primary bacterial disease in Chilean salmon farming, necessitates a constant refinement of control strategies. This study hypothesized that the current vaccination strategy for SRS control in the Chilean Atlantic salmon aquaculture industry, which has been in place since 2017 (ALPHA JECT® 5.1 plus LiVac®), solely relies on vaccines formulated with the EM-90 genogroup of P. salmonis (PS-EM-90), triggering a partial cross-immunity response in fish infected with the LF-89 genogroup (PS-LF-89). Relative Percent Survival (RPS) and cell-mediated immune (CMI) response were evaluated in Atlantic salmon post-smolts vaccinated with the standard vaccination strategy but challenged with both PS-EM-90 and PS-LF-89, in addition to other vaccination strategies considering primo vaccination and booster with other commercial vaccines and the possible enhancing effects of the combination with a natural immunomodulator (PAQ-Xtract®) administered orally. The intraperitoneal (I.P.) challenge was performed after 2395°-days (DD) after the start of the immunostimulant delivery, 1905 DD after the primo vaccination, and 1455 DD after the booster vaccination. Unvaccinated fish showed 73.6 and 41.7 % mortality when challenged with PS-EM-90 and PS-LF-89, respectively. Fish infected with PS-LF-89 died significantly faster (21 days post-infection, dpi) than fish challenged with PS-EM-90 (28 dpi) (p = 0.0043) and had a higher probability of death (0.4626) than fish challenged with PS-EM-90. RPS had a significant positive correlation with the PS-EM-90 load of the P. salmonis genogroup (r = 0.540, p < 0.01) but not with the PS-LF-89 load (r = 0.155, p > 0.05). This demonstrated that the immunization strategies were more effective in lowering PS-EM-90 loads, resulting in higher survival rates in fish challenged with PS-EM-90. The current industry vaccination strategy recorded a 100 % RPS when fish were challenged with PS-EM-90, but the RPS dropped significantly to 77 % when fish were challenged with PS-LF-89, meaning that the strategy did not show complete cross-protection. But after adding PAQ-Xtract®, the RPS improved from 77 % to 92 % in fish that were vaccinated with the standard method but then challenged with PS-LF-89. The most effective vaccination strategy was based on LiVac® as primo vaccination and ALPHA JECT® 5.1 plus LiVac® as booster vaccination, with or without PAQ-Xtract®, in both PS-EM-90 (100 %) and PS-LF-89 (96 %) challenged fish. The serum concentration of anti- P. salmonis IgM did not show a correlation with the protection of immunization strategies expressed in survival. Low serum IL-12 and high serum IFNγ concentrations showed a correlation with higher bacterial loads and lower survival. Aggregate analysis showed a significant correlation between higher numbers of CD8+ cells in the head-kidney, higher fish survival, and a lower bacterial load. The immunization strategies were safe for fish and induced only mild microscopic lesions in the gut. Taken together, our results help to better understand the biological interaction between P. salmonis and post-smolt vaccinated Atlantic salmon to deepen the knowledge on vaccine-induced protection, CMI immune response, and cross-immunity applied to improve the current immunization strategy for SRS control in the Chilean salmon industry. • Current vaccination strategy for SRS showed incomplete cross-protection for PS-LF-89. • PAQ-Xtract® improved RPS of standard strategy challenged with PS-LF-89. • The level of anti-P. salmonis IgM showed no correlation with protection in any strategy. • Low IL-12 and high IFNg showed correlation with high bacterial loads and lower RPS. • The higher number of CD8+ T cells in the head-kidney correlated with longer survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID‐19 pandemic has represented an unprecedented challenge for the humanity, and scientists around the world provided a huge effort to elucidate critical aspects in the fight against the pathogen, useful in designing public health strategies, vaccines and therapeutic approaches. One of the first pieces of evidence characterizing the SARS‐CoV‐2 infection has been its breadth of clinical presentation, ranging from asymptomatic to severe/deadly disease, and the indication of the key role played by the immune response in influencing disease severity. This review is aimed at summarizing what the SARS‐CoV‐2 infection taught us about the immune response, highlighting its features of a double‐edged sword mediating both protective and pathogenic processes. We will discuss the protective role of soluble and cellular innate immunity and the detrimental power of a hyper‐inflammation‐shaped immune response, resulting in tissue injury and immunothrombotic events. We will review the importance of B‐ and T‐cell immunity in reducing the clinical severity and their ability to cross‐recognize viral variants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As concerns about the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic begin to dissipate, nations around the world are instead focusing on the outbreak of monkeypox in some areas. Once restricted to specific areas of Africa, the 2022 pandemic has primarily affected European countries and the rest of the western hemisphere. Although numerous groups are working on contact-tracing initiatives, the original cause of this epidemic remains a mystery. The monkeypox virus is a member of the Poxviridae family, which includes many other zoonotic viruses. After smallpox was eradicated worldwide, occurrences of monkeypox gained international attention in the 1970s. Cross-immunity against monkeypox was achieved through the use of the smallpox vaccine. A rise in the incidence of monkeypox followed the end of routine vaccination against smallpox. An outbreak in the United States in 2003 brought monkeypox to the forefront of public consciousness. Although it has been given the moniker "monkeypox," this particular virus did not initially manifest in these small mammals. To this day, the real origin of monkeypox remains a mystery, however it has been speculated that various rodents and tiny mammals are the carriers of the virus. The virus that causes monkeypox was originally observed in macaque monkeys, hence the name. Monkeypox is seldom spread from person to person, but when it does, it's usually through a person's mucocutaneous lesions or through airborne droplets. Although there is no successful treatment for those who have contracted the virus at this time, complimentary treatments can be given to alleviate symptoms; medications such tecovirimat may be given to those with extremely severe infections. There are no universally accepted standards for administering these medicines, making their efficacy open to debate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C), a post infectious complication of SARS CoV-2 infection, shares enough features with Kawasaki Disease (KD) that some have hypothesized cross-coronavirus (CoV) immunity may explain the shared pathology. Recent studies have shown that humoral cross-reactivity of the CoVs, particularly of OC43, is focused on the S2 region of the Spike protein. Due to efforts utilizing CoV S2 regions to produce a cross-CoV vaccine, we wished to assess SARS-CoV-2 S2 reactivity in children with KD and assess if cardiac involvement in KD correlated with S2 CoV antibody targeting. The presence of cross-reactivity does not distinguish KD from febrile controls and does not correlate with cardiac involvement in KD. These findings support that, in relation to cardiac vascular inflammation, vaccines targeting the S2 region appear to be a safe approach, but there is disparity in the ability of CoV species to raise cross-reactive S2 targeted antibodies. • Coronavirus humoral cross-reactivity is rare in prepandemic samples. • Coronavirus humoral cross-reactivity targets the S2 region. • Cross-immunity does not correlate with cardiac aneurysms of Kawasaki disease.. • Developing vaccines targeting the S2 region appears to be a safe approach. • Cross-reactive epitopes are differentially expressed on different coronaviruses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Susceptibility and severity of COVID-19 infection vary widely. Prior exposure to endemic coronaviruses, common in young children, may protect against SARS-CoV-2. We evaluated risk of severe COVID-19 among adults with and without exposure to young children in a large, integrated healthcare system. Adults with children 0-5 years werematched 1:1 to adults with children 6-11 years, 12-18 years, and those without children based upon a COVID-19 propensity score and risk factors for severe COVID-19. COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and need for intensive care unit (ICU) were assessed in 3,126,427 adults, of whom 24% (N = 743,814) had children 18 years or younger, and 8.8% (N = 274,316) had a youngest child 0-5 years. After 1:1 matching, propensity for COVID-19 infection and risk factors for severe COVID-19 were well balanced between groups. Rates of COVID-19 infection were slightly higher for adults with exposure to older children (incident risk ratio, 1.09, 95% confidence interval, [1.05-1.12] and IRR 1.09 [1.05-1.13] for adults with children 6-11 and 12-18, respectively), compared to those with children 0-5 years, although no difference in rates of COVID-19 illness requiring hospitalization or ICU admission was observed. However, adults without exposure to children had lower rates of COVID-19 infection (IRR 0.85, [0.83-0.87]) but significantly higher rates of COVID-19 hospitalization (IRR 1.49, [1.29-1.73]) and hospitalization requiring ICU admission (IRR 1.76, [1.19-2.58]) compared to those with children aged 0-5. In a large, real-world population, exposure to young children was associated with less severe COVID-19 illness. Endemic coronavirus crossimmunity may play a role in protection against severe COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, we study the norovirus (NoV) epidemic model with random perturbations and a time delay. First of all, the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution are obtained. Then, we derive sufficient conditions for the extinction of the disease. Moreover, by establishing appropriate Lyapunov function, the existence of a stationary distribution is discussed. Some numerical simulations are given to illustrate our analytical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To investigate the immunogenic cross reactivity between goose parvovirus (GPV) and Muscovy duck parvovirus (MDPV), cross-neutralization was carried out with serum samples collected from birds after infection with one of the two waterfowl parvoviruses. The significantly higher virus neutralization titer obtained against the homologous virus than against the heterologous one suggests important differences between the GPV and MDPV antigenic make up that affects the induced protective virus-neutralizing antibody specificity. This was further confirmed by cross-protection studies carried out in waterfowl parvovirus antibody-free Muscovy ducks immunized at one day of age with whole-virus inactivated oil-emulsion vaccines containing either GPV or MDPV as a monovalent vaccine, or both viruses as a bivalent vaccine. Protection against the clinical disease (growth retardation and feathering disorders) provided by the monovalent vaccine was complete against homologous virus challenge at 2 weeks post-vaccination, while the protection against the heterologous virus challenge was significantly lower (p < 0.001). Only the bivalent vaccine containing both goose and Muscovy duck parvoviruses in an inactivated form protected the birds (90–100%) against both waterfowl parvoviruses that can cause disease in Muscovy ducks. Both the cross-neutralization and cross-protection results indicated that adequate protection in Muscovy ducks against the two waterfowl parvoviruses could be achieved only with a vaccine containing both goose and Muscovy duck parvoviruses. Our results showed that the inactivated vaccine applied at one day of age could induce fast immunity (by 2 weeks post-vaccination), providing complete clinical protection in maternal antibody-free birds. It was also demonstrated that day-old vaccination of ducks with maternal antibodies with bivalent vaccine induced active immunity, resulting in 90 to 100% protection by 3 weeks of age, after the decline of maternal antibodies. A booster vaccination administered at 3 weeks of age following the day-old vaccination resulted in a strong and durable immunity against the clinical disease during the susceptible age of the birds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Japan, inactivated influenza vaccines are used. We measured titers of antibodies to vaccine strains of three influenza types—influenza A (H1N1), influenza A (H3N2), and influenza B/Victoria—from the 2017/2018 to 2021/2022 seasons, but not for influenza A (H3N2) from the 2018/2019 season, using a single set of serum samples from 34 healthy volunteers, and assessed the consistency in antibody positivity between seasons. The antibody titers in the 2017/2018 season were used as a reference. The influenza A (H1N1) antibody titer in 2019/2020 did not differ significantly from that in the 2017/2018 season, but the titers varied in the two subsequent seasons. The influenza A (H3N2) antibody titers toward the 2019/2020, 2020/2021, and 2021/2022 seasonal viruses differed significantly from that in the 2017/2018 season. The influenza B/Victoria antibody titer toward the 2019/2020 seasonal antigen differed from that in the 2017/2018 season, and the antibody positivity was inconsistent between seasons; however, the antibody titer in the 2020/2021 season did not differ significantly from those in the prior two seasons, and the antibody positivity was consistent between seasons. Antibody titers and their consistency can be used to evaluate cross-immunity of antibodies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A fractional system for transmission dynamics behavior of influenza infection with two strains is investigated and applied to the qualitative assess of crossing immunities on the expansion of the disease. The generalized mathematical model is significantly more informative regarding the infection outbreak and gives a deep description of the infection’s dynamic process. We firstly take the integer order system given in current literature and then we globalize it by applying the Caputo operator of fractional derivatives. Moreover, we present the rudimentary results of the Caputo operator for the examination of the system, comprising the basic reproduction number R0 and equilibrium points stabilities with the help of the Routh–Hurwitz and the Lyapunov operators techniques. We also focus on the approximate root. For simulations, we apply the famous generalize predictor–corrector Adams–Bashforth Moulton method, which shows the impact of two strains of influenza disease.

Strain competition plays an important role in shaping the dynamics of multiple pathogen outbreaks in a population. Competition may lead to exclusion of some pathogens, while it may influence the invasion of an emerging mutant in the population. However, little emphasis has been given to understand the influence of human vaccination choice on pathogen competition or strain invasion for vaccine-preventable infectious diseases. Coupling game dynamic framework of vaccination choice and compartmental disease transmission model of two strains, we explore invasion and persistence of a mutant in the population despite having a lower reproduction rate than the resident one. We illustrate that higher perceived strain severity and lower perceived vaccine efficacy are necessary conditions for the persistence of a mutant strain. The numerical simulation also extends these invasion and persistence analyses under asymmetric cross-protective immunity of these strains. We show that the dynamics of this cross-immunity model under human vaccination choices is determined by the interplay of parameters defining the cross-immune response function, perceived risk of infection, and vaccine efficacy, and it can exhibit invasion and persistence of mutant strain, even complete exclusion of resident strain in the regime of sufficiently high perceived risk. We conclude by discussing public health implications of the results, that proper risk communication in public about the severity of the disease is an important task to reduce the chance of mutant invasion. Thus, understanding pathogen competitions under social interactions and choices may be an important component for policymakers for strategic decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic presents a poorly understood epidemiological cycle. We aimed to compare the age and weekly distributions of the five human coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2, that circulated in southeastern France. Methods: We analyzed all available diagnoses of respiratory viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, performed between 09/2013 and 05/2020 at the University Hospital Institute Méditerranée Infection in Marseille, southeastern France. Results: For SARS-CoV-2, positive children

Abstract Environmental factors, such as humidity, precipitation, and temperature, have significant impacts on the spread of the new strain coronavirus COVID-19 to humans. In this paper, we use a stochastic epidemic SIRC model, with cross-immune class and time-delay in transmission terms, for the spread of COVID-19. We analyze the model and prove the existence and uniqueness of positive global solution. We deduce the basic reproduction number R 0 s ${\mathcal{R}}_{0}^{s}$ for the stochastic model which is smaller than R 0 ${\mathcal{R}}_{0}$ of the corresponding deterministic model. Sufficient conditions that guarantee the existence of a unique ergodic stationary distribution, using the stochastic Lyapunov function, and conditions for the extinction of the disease are obtained. Our findings show that white noise plays an important part in controlling the spread of the disease; When the white noise is relatively large, the infectious diseases will become extinct; Re-infection and periodic outbreaks can occur due to the existence of feedback time-delay (or memory) in the transmission terms.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has posed a considerable threat to public health and global economies. SARS-CoV-2 has largely affected a vast world population and was declared a COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, with a substantial surge of SARS-CoV-2 infection affecting all aspects of the virus’ natural course of infection and immunity. The cross-reactivity between the different coronaviruses is still a knowledge gap in the understanding of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This study aimed to investigate the impact of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 viral infections on immunoglobulin-IgG cross-reactivity. Our retrospective cohort study hypothesized the possible reactivation of immunity in individuals with a history of infection to Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) when infected with SARS-CoV-2. The total number of participants included was 34; among them, 22 (64.7%) were males, and 12 (35.29%) were females. The mean age of the participants was 40.3 ± 12.9 years. This study compared immunoglobulin (IgG) levels against SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV across various groups with various histories of infection. The results showed that a reactive borderline IgG against both MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 in participants with past infection to both viruses was 40% compared with 37.5% among those with past infection with MERS-CoV alone. Our study results establish that individuals infected with both SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV showed higher MERS-CoV IgG levels compared with those of individuals infected previously with MERS-CoV alone and compared with those of individuals in the control. The results further highlight cross-adaptive immunity between MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. Our study concludes that individuals with previous infections with both MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 showed significantly higher MERS-CoV IgG levels compared with those of individuals infected only with MERS-CoV and compared with those of individuals in the control, suggesting cross-adaptive immunity between MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV.

Influenza B is accountable for an important burden during flu epidemics, causing special impact in children and the elderly. Vaccination is the best approach to address influenza infections. However, one of the main problems of this virus is that two different lineages circulate together, Victoria and Yamagata; and trivalent vaccines, that only contain one of these lineages, are still in use. For that reason, if during an epidemic, the lineage not included in the vaccine predominates, a mismatch would occur, and the vaccine effectiveness will be very poor. In this work, we evaluated the cross-protection given by the trivalent Influenza vaccine and compared serological profiles based on age, sex, and the type of vaccine used. We performed a retrospective analysis of serum samples obtained before and after seasonal influenza vaccination during 20 seasons (1998–2018). The results showed that heterotypic reactivity between both influenza B lineages is common, but always lower than the homologous response. Age is a relevant factor for this cross-reactivity between both lineages, while the sex and the type of vaccine not. Vaccination with trivalent influenza vaccines elicits cross-reactive antibodies against both lineages, however, this response might not be enough to provide an appropriate serological protection in case of mismatch. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Influenza B is accountable for an important burden during flu epidemics, causing special impact in children and the elderly. Vaccination is the best approach to address influenza infections. However, one of the main problems of this virus is that two different lineages circulate together, Victoria and Yamagata; and trivalent vaccines, that only contain one of these lineages, are still in use. For that reason, if during an epidemic, the lineage not included in the vaccine predominates, a mismatch would occur, and the vaccine effectiveness will be very poor. In this work, we evaluated the cross-protection given by the trivalent Influenza vaccine and compared serological profiles based on age, sex, and the type of vaccine used. We performed a retrospective analysis of serum samples obtained before and after seasonal influenza vaccination during 20 seasons (1998–2018). The results showed that heterotypic reactivity between both influenza B lineages is common, but always lower than the homologous response. Age is a relevant factor for this cross-reactivity between both lineages, while the sex and the type of vaccine not. Vaccination with trivalent influenza vaccines elicits cross-reactive antibodies against both lineages, however, this response might not be enough to provide an appropriate serological protection in case of mismatch.

BackgroundA growing number of experiments have suggested potential cross-reactive immunity between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) and previous human coronaviruses. We conducted the present retrospective cohort study to investigate the relationship between previous Middle East respiratory syndrome-coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection and the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection as well as the relationship between previous MERS-CoV and COVID-19-related hospitalization and mortality.MethodsStarting in March 2020, we prospectively followed two groups of individuals who tested negative for COVID-19 infection. The first group had a previously confirmed MERS-CoV infection, which was compared to a control group of MERS-negative individuals. The studied cohort was then followed until November 2020 to track evidence of contracting COVID-19 infection.FindingsA total of 82 (24%) MERS-positive and 260 (31%) MERS-negative individuals had COVID-19 infection. Patients in the MERS-positive group had a lower risk of COVID-19 infection than those in the MERS-negative group (Risk ratio [RR] 0.696, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.522-0.929; p =0.014). The risk of COVID-19-related hospitalization in the MERS-positive group was significantly higher (RR 4.036, 95% CI 1.705-9.555; p =0.002). The case fatality rate (CFR) from COVID-19 was 4.9% in the MERS-positive group and 1.2% in the MERS-negative group (p =0.038). The MERS-positive group had a higher risk of death than the MERS-negative group (RR 6.222, 95% CI 1.342-28.839; p =0.019). However, the risk of mortality was similar between the two groups when death was adjusted for age (p =0.068) and age and sex (p =0.057). After controlling for all the independent variables, only healthcare worker occupation and >1 comorbidity were independent predictors of SARS-CoV-2 infection.InterpretationIndividuals with previous MERS-CoV infection can exhibit a cross-reactive immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our study demonstrated that patients with MERS-CoV infection had higher risks of COVID-19-related hospitalization and death than MERS-negative individuals.

Background: A growing number of experiments have suggested potential cross-reactive immunity between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) and previous human coronaviruses. We conducted the present retrospective cohort study to investigate the relationship between previous Middle East respiratory syndrome-coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection and the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection as well as the relationship between previous MERS-CoV and COVID-19-related hospitalization and mortality. Methods: Starting in March 2020, we prospectively followed two groups of individuals who tested negative for COVID-19 infection. The first group had a previously confirmed MERS-CoV infection, which was compared to a control group of MERS-negative individuals. The studied cohort was then followed until November 2020 to track evidence of contracting COVID-19 infection. Findings: A total of 82 (24%) MERS-positive and 260 (31%) MERS-negative individuals had COVID-19 infection. Patients in the MERS-positive group had a lower risk of COVID-19 infection than those in the MERS-negative group (Risk ratio [RR] 0.696, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.522-0.929; p =0.014). The risk of COVID-19-related hospitalization in the MERS-positive group was significantly higher (RR 4.036, 95% CI 1.705-9.555; p =0.002). The case fatality rate (CFR) from COVID-19 was 4.9% in the MERS-positive group and 1.2% in the MERS-negative group (p =0.038). The MERS-positive group had a higher risk of death than the MERS-negative group (RR 6.222, 95% CI 1.342-28.839; p =0.019). However, the risk of mortality was similar between the two groups when death was adjusted for age (p =0.068) and age and sex (p =0.057). After controlling for all the independent variables, only healthcare worker occupation and >1 comorbidity were independent predictors of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Interpretation: Individuals with previous MERS-CoV infection can exhibit a cross-reactive immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our study demonstrated that patients with MERS-CoV infection had higher risks of COVID-19-related hospitalization and death than MERS-negative individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are highly efficacious in protecting against HPV infections and related diseases, vaccination may trigger replacement by nontargeted genotypes if these compete with the vaccine-targeted types. HPV genotype replacement has been deemed unlikely, based on the lack of systematic increases in the prevalence of nonvaccine-type (NVT) infection in the first decade after vaccination, and on the presence of cross-protection for some NVTs.Methods: To investigate whether type replacement can be inferred from early postvaccination surveillance, we constructed a transmission model in which a vaccine type and an NVT compete through infection-induced cross-immunity. We simulated scenarios of different levels of cross-immunity and vaccine-induced cross-protection to the NVT. We validated whether commonly used measures correctly indicate type replacement in the long run.Results: Type replacement is a trade-off between cross-immunity and cross-protection; cross-immunity leads to type replacement unless cross-protection is strong enough. With weak cross-protection, NVT prevalence may initially decrease before rebounding into type replacement, exhibiting a honeymoon period. Importantly, vaccine effectiveness for NVTs is inadequate for indicating type replacement.Conclusions: Although postvaccination surveillance thus far is reassuring, it is still too early to preclude type replacement. Monitoring of NVTs remains pivotal in gauging population-level impacts of HPV vaccination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To investigate the immunogenic cross reactivity between goose parvovirus (GPV) and Muscovy duck parvovirus (MDPV), cross-neutralization was carried out with serum samples collected from birds after infection with one of the two waterfowl parvoviruses. The significantly higher virus neutralization titer obtained against the homologous virus than against the heterologous one suggests important differences between the GPV and MDPV antigenic make up that affects the induced protective virus-neutralizing antibody specificity. This was further confirmed by cross-protection studies carried out in waterfowl parvovirus antibody-free Muscovy ducks immunized at one day of age with whole-virus inactivated oil-emulsion vaccines containing either GPV or MDPV as a monovalent vaccine, or both viruses as a bivalent vaccine. Protection against the clinical disease (growth retardation and feathering disorders) provided by the monovalent vaccine was complete against homologous virus challenge at 2 weeks post-vaccination, while the protection against the heterologous virus challenge was significantly lower (p < 0.001). Only the bivalent vaccine containing both goose and Muscovy duck parvoviruses in an inactivated form protected the birds (90–100%) against both waterfowl parvoviruses that can cause disease in Muscovy ducks. Both the cross-neutralization and cross-protection results indicated that adequate protection in Muscovy ducks against the two waterfowl parvoviruses could be achieved only with a vaccine containing both goose and Muscovy duck parvoviruses. Our results showed that the inactivated vaccine applied at one day of age could induce fast immunity (by 2 weeks post-vaccination), providing complete clinical protection in maternal antibody-free birds. It was also demonstrated that day-old vaccination of ducks with maternal antibodies with bivalent vaccine induced active immunity, resulting in 90 to 100% protection by 3 weeks of age, after the decline of maternal antibodies. A booster vaccination administered at 3 weeks of age following the day-old vaccination resulted in a strong and durable immunity against the clinical disease during the susceptible age of the birds.

We use mathematical modelling to examine how microbial strain communities are structured by the host specialisation traits and antigenic relationships of their members. The model is quite general and broadly applicable, but we focus on Borrelia burgdorferi, the Lyme disease bacterium, transmitted by ticks to mice and birds. In this system, host specialisation driven by the evasion of innate immunity has been linked to multiple niche polymorphism, while antigenic differentiation driven by the evasion of adaptive immunity has been linked to negative frequency dependence. Our model is composed of two host species, one vector, and multiple co-circulating pathogen strains that vary in their host specificity and their antigenic distances from one another. We explore the conditions required to maintain pathogen diversity. We show that the combination of host specificity and antigenic differentiation creates an intricate niche structure. Unequivocal rules that relate the stability of a strain community directly to the trait composition of its members are elusive. However, broad patterns are evident. When antigenic differentiation is weak, stable communities are typically composed entirely of generalists that can exploit either host species equally well. As antigenic differentiation increases, more diverse stable communities emerge, typically around trait compositions of generalists, generalists and very similar specialists, and specialists roughly balanced between the two host species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous exposure to influenza viruses confers cross-immunity against future infections with related strains. However, this is not always accounted for explicitly in mathematical models used for forecasting during influenza outbreaks. We show that, if an influenza outbreak is due to a strain that is similar to one that has emerged previously, then accounting for cross-immunity explicitly can improve the accuracy of real-time forecasts. To do this, we consider two infectious disease outbreak forecasting models. In the first (the “1-group model”), all individuals are assumed to be identical and cross-immunity is not accounted for. In the second (the “2-group model”), individuals who have previously been infected by a related strain are assumed to be less likely to experience severe disease, and therefore recover more quickly, than immunologically naive individuals. We fit both models to estimated case notification data (including symptomatic individuals as well as laboratory-confirmed cases) from Japan from the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, and then generate synthetic data for a future outbreak by assuming that the 2-group model represents the epidemiology of influenza infections more accurately. We use the 1-group model (as well as the 2-group model for comparison) to generate forecasts that would be obtained in real-time as the future outbreak is ongoing, using parameter values estimated from the 2009 epidemic as informative priors, motivated by the fact that without using prior information from 2009, the forecasts are highly uncertain. In the scenario that we consider, the 1-group model only produces accurate outbreak forecasts once the peak of the epidemic has passed, even when the values of important epidemiological parameters such as the lengths of the mean incubation and infectious periods are known exactly. As a result, it is necessary to use the more epidemiologically realistic 2-group model to generate accurate forecasts. Accounting for cross-immunity driven by exposures in previous outbreaks explicitly is expected to improve the accuracy of epidemiological modelling forecasts during influenza outbreaks.

In Japan, inactivated influenza vaccines are used. We measured titers of antibodies to vaccine strains of three influenza types—influenza A (H1N1), influenza A (H3N2), and influenza B/Victoria—from the 2017/2018 to 2021/2022 seasons, but not for influenza A (H3N2) from the 2018/2019 season, using a single set of serum samples from 34 healthy volunteers, and assessed the consistency in antibody positivity between seasons. The antibody titers in the 2017/2018 season were used as a reference. The influenza A (H1N1) antibody titer in 2019/2020 did not differ significantly from that in the 2017/2018 season, but the titers varied in the two subsequent seasons. The influenza A (H3N2) antibody titers toward the 2019/2020, 2020/2021, and 2021/2022 seasonal viruses differed significantly from that in the 2017/2018 season. The influenza B/Victoria antibody titer toward the 2019/2020 seasonal antigen differed from that in the 2017/2018 season, and the antibody positivity was inconsistent between seasons; however, the antibody titer in the 2020/2021 season did not differ significantly from those in the prior two seasons, and the antibody positivity was consistent between seasons. Antibody titers and their consistency can be used to evaluate cross-immunity of antibodies.

• Comparable bell-shaped distributions for SARS-CoV-2 and endemic coronaviruses. • Different age distributions for SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses. • Fewer children among all SARS-CoV-2-positive than all endemic coronavirus-positive. • SARS-CoV-2 was the only respiratory virus to spare children. The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic presents a poorly understood epidemiological cycle. We aimed to compare the age and weekly distributions of the five human coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2, that circulated in southeastern France. We analyzed all available diagnoses of respiratory viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, performed between 09/2013 and 05/2020 at the University Hospital Institute Méditerranée Infection in Marseille, southeastern France. For SARS-CoV-2, positive children <15 years of age represented 3.4% (228/6,735) of all positive cases, which is significantly less than for endemic coronaviruses (46.1%; 533/1,156; p < 0.001). Among 10,026 patients tested for SARS-CoV-2 and endemic coronaviruses in 2020, children <15 years represented a significantly lower proportion of all positive cases for SARS-CoV-2 than for endemic coronaviruses [2.2% (24/1,067) vs. 33.5% (149/445), respectively; p < 0.001]. Epidemic curves for endemic coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2 in 91,722 patients showed comparable bell-shaped distributions with a slight time lag. In contrast, the age distribution of endemic coronaviruses and 14 other respiratory viruses differed significantly compared to that of SARS-CoV-2, which was the only virus to relatively spare children. We observed for SARS-CoV-2 a temporal distribution resembling that of endemic coronaviruses but an age distribution that relatively spares the youngest subjects, who are those the most exposed to endemic coronaviruses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ongoing Corona virus (COVID-19) pandemic has witnessed global political responses of unimaginable proportions. Many nations have implemented lockdowns that involve mandating citizens not to leave their residences for non-essential work. The Indian government has taken appropriate and commendable steps to curtail the community spread of COVID-19. While this may be extremely beneficial, this perspective discusses the other reasons why COVID-19 may have a lesser impact on India. We analyze the current pattern of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, testing, and mortality in India with an emphasis on the importance of mortality as a marker of the clinical relevance of COVID-19 disease. We also analyze the environmental and biological factors which may lessen the impact of COVID-19 in India. The importance of cross-immunity, innate immune responses, ACE polymorphism, and viral genetic mutations are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Streptococcus agalactiae and Streptococcus iniae are major bacterial pathogens of tilapia that can cause high mortality concomitant with large economic losses to aquaculture. Although development of vaccines using formalin-killed bacteria to control these diseases has been attempted, the mechanism of immunity against streptococcal infections and the cross-protective ability of these two bacteria remains unclear. To explore the immunological role of these vaccines, we compared the immune responses of tilapia after immunization with both vaccines and compared the relative percent survival (RPS) and cross-immunization protection of tilapia after separate infection with S. agalactiae and S. iniae. All results revealed that vaccinated fish had significantly higher (P < 0.05) levels of specific antibodies than control fish 14 days post secondary vaccination (PSV) and 7 days post challenge. In vaccinated fish, the mRNA expression of interleukin-8 (IL-8), interleukin-12 (IL-12), caspase-3 (C-3), tumour necrosis factor (TNF), and interferon (IFN) was significantly up regulated (P < 0.05) in the head kidney after immunized; similar results were found for IL-8, TNF and IFN in the posterior kidney, meanwhile the expression levels of C-3 and IFN were significantly increased (P < 0.05) in the spleen of vaccinated fish. Additionally, the levels of acid phosphatase (ACP), alkaline phosphatase (AKP), superoxide dismutase (SOD), and lysozyme (LZM) in vaccinated fish were improved at different degree when compared to the control fish. These results showed that vaccination with formalin-killed cells (FKCs) of either S. agalactiae or S. iniae conferred protection against infection by the corresponding pathogen in Nile tilapia, resulting in RPS values of 92.3% and 91.7%, respectively. Furthermore, cross-protection was observed, as the S. agalactiae FKC vaccine protected fish from S. iniae infection, and vice versa. These results suggested that the S. agalactiae and S. iniae FKC vaccines can induce immune responses and generate excellent protective effects in Nile tilapia. • S. agalactiae and S. iniae share some common antigens. • S. agalactiae and S. iniae vaccines could provide immune protection and induce cross-immune reactions. • The S. agalactiae vaccine provided greater cross-immune protection than the S. iniae vaccine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some past epidemics of different influenza subtypes (particularly A/H3N2) in the US saw co-circulation of vaccine-type and variant strains. There is evidence that natural infection with one influenza subtype offers short-term protection against infection with another influenza subtype (henceforth, cross-immunity). This suggests that such cross-immunity for strains within a subtype is expected to be strong. Therefore, while vaccination effective against one strain may reduce transmission of that strain, this may also lead to a reduction of the vaccine-type strain's ability to suppress spread of a variant strain. It remains unclear what the joint effect of vaccination and cross-immunity is for co-circulating influenza strains within a subtype, and what is the potential benefit of a bivalent vaccine that protects against both strains. We simulated co-circulation of vaccine-type and variant strains under a variety of scenarios. In each scenario, we considered the case when the vaccine efficacy against the variant strain is lower than the efficacy against the vaccine-type strain (monovalent vaccine), as well the case when vaccine is equally efficacious against both strains (bivalent vaccine). Administration of a bivalent vaccine results in a significant reduction in the overall incidence of infection compared to administration of a monovalent vaccine, even with lower coverage by the bivalent vaccine. Additionally, we found that with greater cross-immunity, increasing coverage levels for the monovalent vaccine becomes less beneficial, while introducing the bivalent vaccine becomes more beneficial. Our work exhibits the limitations of influenza vaccines that have low efficacy against non-vaccine strains, and demonstrates the benefits of vaccines that offer good protection against multiple influenza strains. The results elucidate the need for guarding against the potential co-circulation of non-vaccine strains for an influenza subtype, at least during select seasons, possibly through inclusion of multiple strains within a subtype (particularly A/H3N2) in a vaccine.

This article concerns the SIRC epidemiological model for influenza A, which efficiently describes the mechanism of disease spreading, including the susceptible (S), the infected (I) and the recovered (R), along with a cross-immune class (C) that recovers after being inflected by different strains of the same viral subtype. The dynamics of the model is completely determined by the basic reproduction number $R_0$. If $R_0\leq 1$, the disease-free equilibrium of the SIRC model is globally asymptotically stable, which means influenza A will die out. Otherwise, the SIRC model may have exactly one endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable under certain parametric conditions. Also, numerical simulations are given to support our analytical results.

The high frequency of modern travel has led to concerns about a devastating pandemic since a lethal pathogen strain could spread worldwide quickly. Many historical pandemics have arisen following pathogen evolution to a more virulent form. However, some pathogen strains invoke immune responses that provide partial cross-immunity against infection with related strains. Here, we consider a mathematical model of successive outbreaks of two strains—a low virulence (LV) strain outbreak followed by a high virulence (HV) strain outbreak. Under these circumstances, we investigate the impacts of varying travel rates and cross-immunity on the probability that a major epidemic of the HV strain occurs, and the size of that outbreak. Frequent travel between subpopulations can lead to widespread immunity to the HV strain, driven by exposure to the LV strain. As a result, major epidemics of the HV strain are less likely, and can potentially be smaller, with more connected subpopulations. Cross-immunity may be a factor contributing to the absence of a global pandemic as severe as the 1918 influenza pandemic in the century since. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]