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Lloyd et al. (2020) proposed and tested a novel three-step framework for examining the extent to which reassessment of dynamic risk and protective factors enhances the prediction of imminent criminal recidivism. We conducted a conceptual replication of Lloyd et al.'s study. We used the same dynamic risk assessment measure in the same jurisdiction but, unlike Lloyd et al., our sample comprised solely high-risk men on parole in New Zealand ( N = 966), the individuals who are most frequently reassessed in the community and most likely to imminently reoffend. The results of the previous study were largely reproduced: reassessment consistently enhanced prediction, with the most pronounced effects observed for a scale derived from theoretically acute dynamic risk factors. These findings indicate reassessment effects are robust to sample selection based on a narrower range of risk levels and remain robust across years of practice in applied contexts, despite potential organizational drift from initial training and reassessment fatigue. The findings also provide further support for the practice of ongoing risk reassessment in community supervision and suggest that the method proposed by Lloyd et al. is a replicable approach for testing the essential criteria for defining dynamic risk and protective factors.

Purpose of Review: We review the issues, controversies, and main findings from the sexual violence risk assessment literature with Indigenous men. An argument is presented for the incorporation of structured and validated risk assessment measures as part of a comprehensive assessment to inform risk management and the prevention of sexual violence., Recent Findings: Extant research demonstrates that Canadian Indigenous men convicted for sexual offenses tend to score higher on sexual violence risk measures and to have higher rates of sexual and violent recidivism. Established static and dynamic tools, however, have moderate predictive accuracy for sexual and violent recidivism and changes in risk from treatment or other change agents are associated with decreases in recidivism. Static-99R and the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version demonstrate acceptable properties of calibration for indigenous men with respect to sexual recidivism, although Indigenous men continue to show higher rates of violent recidivism associated with risk scores. The extant literature provides support for the discrimination and calibration properties of established static and dynamic sexual violence risk tools with Indigenous men; use of a dynamic tool is critical to inform risk management interventions and evaluate change. Risk measures are one component of a comprehensive and integrated assessment process that incorporates responsivity considerations, conducted in a culturally competent, ethical, and humane manner.

Background: Structured assessments have been shown to assist professionals to evaluate the risk of aggression in secure services for general offender populations and more recently among adults with intellectual disabilities. There is a need to develop intellectual disability sensitive measures for predicting risk of aggression in community samples, especially tools with a focus on dynamic variables., Methods: The study prospectively followed 28 participants for up to 2 months to test whether the Current Risk of Violence (CuRV) and Short Dynamic Risk Scale (SDRS) were able to predict verbal and physical aggression in a community sample of adults with intellectual disability., Results: CuRV and SDRS ratings significantly predicted verbal and physical aggression over a 2-month period., Conclusions: The current study supports the use of the CuRV with adults with intellectual disability living in community settings. The CuRV and SDRS are worthy of future development and evaluation in independent investigations., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Offender rehabilitation is typically thought to have been successful if a higher proportion of a sample of treatment completers avoids being reconvicted for an offence than a comparison sample. Yet, this type of evaluation design tells us little about what brings about these outcomes. In this study, we test whether change in dynamic risk factors during treatment is a recidivism-reducing mechanism in a sample of high-risk offenders. We also examine the extent to which change after treatment-in the period of reentry from prison to the community-mediates this relationship. We found that although individuals made statistically significant change during treatment, this change was not significantly related to recidivism. We did, however, find tentative support for an indirect relationship between treatment change and recidivism, through change that occurred during reentry. These findings signal the importance of the reentry period for understanding how change in treatment is related to long-term outcomes.

In this article, I describe the motivation-facilitation model of sexual offending, which identifies the traits of paraphilia, high sex drive, and intense mating effort as primary motivations for sexual offenses, as well as trait (e.g., antisocial personality) and state (e.g., intoxication) factors that can facilitate acting on these motivations when opportunities exist. Originally developed to explain contact sexual offending against children, the motivation-facilitation model was subsequently extended as an explanation for child pornography offending and for online solicitations of young adolescents. Here, I argue it has the potential to be expanded to explain other forms of sexual offending, including sexual assaults of adults and noncontact offenses involving exhibitionism or voyeurism. In this review, I critically examine the evidence for and against the model, discuss its limitations, and identify critical gaps for future research.

Although several offender treatment experts have suggested that therapeutic relationships play an important role in offender treatment, empirical finding supporting those arguments are scarce. The present study has therefore examined the relationship between prison climate, treatment motivation, and their influence on changes in risk factors in N = 215 inmates and detainees in four correctional facilities in Berlin, Germany. The inmates' perception of prison climate significantly correlated with their attitudes towards treatment. More positive climate in terms of therapeutic hold and more positive treatment attitude in terms of trust in therapy were also the best predictors of stronger decreases in dynamic risk factors measured by the Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R). Our results support the importance of treatment relationship factors within the course of offender rehabilitation.

Although emotional congruence with children (ECWC) is a risk factor for sexual offending against children, its conceptual validity has hardly been researched. This study aims to explore the construct of ECWC by evaluating the factor structure of the Child Identification Scale (CIS-R) and its relation to facets of sexual preference and child sexual abuse behaviors. It was hypothesized that the measure comprises consistent subscales that are differently associated with aspects of sexual preference and sexual offending against children. CIS-R data of a sample of 217 adult male pedophiles from the community were used for an exploratory principal component analysis (PCA). Group comparisons and a multinomial logistic regression analysis were conducted after including a non-pedophilic control group of 22 adult men. PCA revealed a three-factor solution for the CIS-R accounting for 30% of variance. Group comparisons found differences in overall scores and the factor labeled "Attachment to Children" between subgroups of sexual age and gender preference, but not between contact, online, and non-offenders. The regression analysis showed a pedophile sexual preference and the interaction between a hebephile sexual age preference and the factor "Attachment to Children" being associated with past offending behavior. The results indicate a wish to attach to children as core feature of the CIS-R measure assessing ECWC. It is discussed whether this is an inherent feature of pedophilia or rather an independent aspect being differently distinct in pedophiles.

The purpose of this article was to develop an Spanish psychometric typology of sexual offenders taking into account dynamic risk factors. The sample comprised 94 sex offenders imprisoned in Spain (52 rapists and 42 child molesters). The analysis yielded two different offender categories based on the subjects' criminogenic needs level (high and low). The results also showed that social desirability has a strong influence on the developed typologies, whereas the offence type, sociodemographic characteristics, and criminal history do not. A dynamic risk factors typology, such as the one proposed here, could help criminal and correctional facilities to fulfill their remit. It could also be useful for linking treatment intensity to offenders' criminogenic needs, as well as providing a platform for recidivism risk assessments.

Female sex offenders may be implicated in up to one fifth of all sex crimes committed in the United States. Despite previous research findings that suggest unique patterns of offending among female sex offenders, limited empirical research has investigated the motivations and processes involved. The present study qualitatively examined female sex offenders' offense-related experiences and characterized the internal and external factors that contributed to offending. Semi-structured interviews with 24 female sex offenders were analyzed by a team of coders with limited exposure to the existing literature using grounded theory analysis. A conceptual framework emerged representing distinctive processes for solo- and co-offending, contextualized within ecological layers of social and environmental influence. This model extends previous work by offering an example of nested vulnerabilities proximal to female sexual offending. Implications for future research, prevention, and treatment are discussed., (© The Author(s) 2014.)

The Structured Assessment of Protective Factors for violence risk (SAPROF) has recently been developed as a risk assessment tool to focus solely on protective factors for (sexual) violence risk. Research on protective factors for sexual offending is very limited and most risk assessment tools for adult sexual offenders do not incorporate protective factors. The current study investigates the applicability and predictive validity of the SAPROF for forensic psychiatric patients who have sexually offended. For a sample of 83 hands-on sexual offenders, risk assessments were carried out retrospectively with the SAPROF, the Historical Clinical Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) and the Sexual Violence Risk-20 (SVR-20). Results show good interrater reliability and negative correlations between the SAPROF and both risk tools. Predictive validities of the SAPROF protective factors for reconvictions of general and sexual violence were good for short-term (1-3 year) as well as for long-term follow-up (15 year). Moreover, the SAPROF remained a statistically significant predictor of future violence and sexual violence even after controlling for the HCR-20 and the SVR-20. Implications of these findings and recommendations for future research are discussed., (© The Author(s) 2014.)

Literature on risk factors for recidivism among juveniles who have sexually offended (JSOs) is limited. In addition, there have been no studies published concerning protective factors among this population. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship of risk and protective factors to sexual and nonsexual recidivism among a sample of 193 male JSOs (mean age = 15.26). Youths were followed for an average of 7.24 years following discharge from a residential sex offender treatment program. The risk factor opportunities to reoffend, as coded based on the Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism, was associated with sexual recidivism. Several risk factors (e.g., prior offending; peer delinquency) were associated with nonsexual recidivism. No protective factors examined were associated with sexual recidivism, although strong attachments and bonds as measured by the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth was negatively related to nonsexual recidivism. These findings indicate that risk factors for nonsexual recidivism may be consistent across both general adolescent offender populations and JSOs, but that there may be distinct protective factors that apply to sexual recidivism among JSOs. Results also indicate important needs for further research on risk factors, protective factors, and risk management strategies for JSOs.

In this article, I describe the motivation-facilitation model of sexual offending, which identifies the traits of paraphilia, high sex drive, and intense mating effort as primary motivations for sexual offenses, as well as trait (e.g., antisocial personality) and state (e.g., intoxication) factors that can facilitate acting on these motivations when opportunities exist. Originally developed to explain contact sexual offending against children, the motivation-facilitation model was subsequently extended as an explanation for child pornography offending and for online solicitations of young adolescents. Here, I argue it has the potential to be expanded to explain other forms of sexual offending, including sexual assaults of adults and noncontact offenses involving exhibitionism or voyeurism. In this review, I critically examine the evidence for and against the model, discuss its limitations, and identify critical gaps for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The explanation of offending and reoffending currently relies upon the Risk-Need-Responsivity model's concept of "criminogenic need" (Andrews & Bonta, 2010; Bonta & Andrews, 2017) or dynamic risk factors (DRF). This is problematic because the DRF construct is predictive rather than explanatory, and suffers from a number of conceptual problems. Relatedly, the identification and management of DRF in individuals who have committed crimes is an overriding concern for the criminal justice system. It drives the formation of correctional policy and the funding of treatment programs in prisons, forensic hospitals, and probation services. Significant theoretical work is required in order to transform DRF into explanatory tools which are useful for research and practice. In this paper we outline problems with DRF which obstruct this process and then sketch out a possible way forward; the Risk-Causality Method, with its three phases of deconstruction, analysis, and reintegration. Highlights • In this paper we outline a novel method for researchers to utilize dynamic risk factors in the explanation of offending. • Our method integrates suggestions from recent literature throughout its phases: deconstruction, analysis, and reintegration. • The analysis phase includes the psychological mechanisms underpinning factors as well as the contexts in which they manifest. • This has the potential to encourage and guide research, and eventually influence the way practitioners formulate cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although emotional congruence with children (ECWC) is a risk factor for sexual offending against children, its conceptual validity has hardly been researched. This study aims to explore the construct of ECWC by evaluating the factor structure of the Child Identification Scale (CIS-R) and its relation to facets of sexual preference and child sexual abuse behaviors. It was hypothesized that the measure comprises consistent subscales that are differently associated with aspects of sexual preference and sexual offending against children. CIS-R data of a sample of 217 adult male pedophiles from the community were used for an exploratory principal component analysis (PCA). Group comparisons and a multinomial logistic regression analysis were conducted after including a non-pedophilic control group of 22 adult men. PCA revealed a three-factor solution for the CIS-R accounting for 30% of variance. Group comparisons found differences in overall scores and the factor labeled "Attachment to Children" between subgroups of sexual age and gender preference, but not between contact, online, and non-offenders. The regression analysis showed a pedophile sexual preference and the interaction between a hebephile sexual age preference and the factor "Attachment to Children" being associated with past offending behavior. The results indicate a wish to attach to children as core feature of the CIS-R measure assessing ECWC. It is discussed whether this is an inherent feature of pedophilia or rather an independent aspect being differently distinct in pedophiles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current conceptualization of “dynamic risk factors” (DRF) for criminal offending is problematic. It is generally accepted that there are significant conceptual issues in this domain, however, until recently addressing these have not been prioritized. Instead the majority of research and literature has focused on the success of DRF in predicting reoffending, and the effectiveness of treatment programmes that target DRF. Similar conceptual issues apply to “protective factors” (PF), which are frequently defined as the opposite of DRF; factors that reduce rather than increase risk of reoffending. In addition to the vagueness of these broad definitions, problems arise when researchers attempt to explain the theoretical and practical relationship between the two. Two important and challenging questions arise: 1) what exactly are these risk-related features? And 2) how do they relate to each other and criminal behavior? In this paper we argue that by building a comprehensive model of predictive agency we may be able to understand the causes of crime and desistence, and that this is crucial in improving outcomes for both those who have committed offences and the societies they live within. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although many adolescent risk assessment tools include an emphasis on dynamic factors, little research has examined the extent to which these tools are capable of measuring change. In this article, we outline a framework to evaluate a tool's capacity to measure change. This framework includes the following: (a) measurement error and reliable change, and (b) sensitivity (i.e., internal, external, and relative sensitivity). We then used this framework to evaluate the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) and Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI). Research assistants conducted 509 risk assessments with 146 adolescents on probation (101 male, 45 female), who were assessed every 3 months over a 1-year period. Internal sensitivity (i.e., change over time) was partially supported in that a modest proportion of youth showed reliable changes over the 3-, 6-, and 12-month follow-ups. External sensitivity (i.e., the association between change scores and reoffending) was also partially supported. In particular, 22% of the associations between change scores and any and violent reoffending were significant at a 6-month follow-up. However, only 1 change score (i.e., peer associations) remained significant after the Bonferroni correction was applied. Finally, relative sensitivity was not supported, as the SAVRY and YLS/CMI was not more dynamic than the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV). Specifically, the 1-year rank-order stability coefficients for the SAVRY, YLS/CMI, and PCL:YV Total Scores were .78, .75, and .76, respectively. Although the SAVRY and YLS/CMI hold promise, further efforts may help to enhance sensitivity to short-term changes in risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper I present a preliminary theory of protective factors. First, I briefly discuss the concept of protective factors and associated ideas such as resilience and strengths . Second, I critically examine three recent attempts to conceptualize the role of protective factors in the explanation of offending and desistance, those by Serinet al. (2016), de Vries Robbé (2014), and MacDonald (2016). Third, I weave together concepts from evolutionary biology, psychology, cognitive neuroscience, and metaphysics to develop a tentative theory of protective factors. This theory is based on the core idea that agency is underpinned by the capacities associated with a robust first person perspective, which includes the ability to construct models of actual and possible situations and to use them to predict possible outcomes prior to acting. Fourth, I apply my theoretical ideas to the problem of dynamic risk and protective factors and review their ability to inform treatment and desistance. I also reflect on some of the research and practice implications of my conceptualization of protective factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The focus of this paper is on what role dynamic risk factors should play in the development of explanations of crime. Following a discussion of the nature of explanation we propose that in their current form dynamic risk factors should not be regarded as causes of crime because they cannot be coherently conceptualized as causal mechanisms. We then examine the issue of how best to ascertain whether risk factors are causes and a number of methodological guidelines are suggested to assist in this evaluation process. Finally, we conclude that dynamic risk factors are valuable predictors of recidivism and that, additionally, suitably reconstructed they can serve an important methodological function in identifying the causes of crime and reoffending. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of protective factors and allied constructs such as strengths or resilience has been the focus of increased research and practice attention within the criminal justice domain over the last ten years or so. A major reason for this interest is that assisting individuals to desist from further offending means helping them to live their lives in fulfilling and prosocial social ways. While this is a laudable aim several research problems are now apparent in the literature that threatens to undermine this goal. In this paper we focus on four of these problems and thereby set the scene for the remaining papers of this special issue. The four problems are definitional ambiguity, practitioner uncertainty, explanatory confusion, and the dual nature of protective factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Offender rehabilitation effectively reduces recidivism for treatment groups compared to control groups, but there is less evidence demonstrating that intra-individual changes are related to reductions in risk. We review and critique academic and government literature linking individual change scores to recidivism, focusing on three key treatment domains: cognition, violence, and substance misuse. Database searches identified 378 studies measuring change, but only 53 studies yielding 49 explicit tests of the relationship between intra-individual change scores and recidivism outcome. Of the 49 available tests, 26 effect sizes (53.1%) were significant, ranging from small (d =0.06) to large (d =1.48). Across all domains, change variables significantly related to recidivism included known dynamic risk factors: antisocial attitudes, antisocial beliefs, antisocial associates, antisocial personality, social support, and substance misuse. Two additional findings centered on changes in negative emotion and successful treatment process. This review further suggests there is a need to utilize better measurement strategies and more sophisticated constructs. Additional practical, theoretical, and methodological implications are discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

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Accurate assessments of levels of risk posed by sexual offenders are in high demand as decisions concerning whether an offender should be released into the community can have severe consequences both for the offender and the public. This article reviews factors predictive of sexual offence recidivism and the 12 most widely used actuarial risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders. It was found that 10 out of the 12 actuarial and clinical measures available are better at distinguishing general recidivism than sexual offence reoffending. Ten assessments predominately use static risk factors, and 7 do not consider treatment effects. Hence, the validity of these instruments for use with sex offenders is in question. It is argued that the use of both static factors and variations of dynamic risk factors, using the actuarial approach, will predict those offenders who wilt reoffend and distinguish them from those who are not likely to reoffend. Evidence-based dynamic risk factors that are sensitive to sexual reoffending are identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]