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Aim: As climate change presents a major threat to biodiversity in the next decades, it is critical to assess its impact on species habitat suitability to inform biodiversity conservation. Species distribution models (SDMs) are a widely used tool to assess climate change impacts on species' geographical distributions. As the name of these models suggests, the species level is the most commonly used taxonomic unit in SDMs. However, recently it has been demonstrated that SDMs considering taxonomic resolution below (or above) the species level can make more reliable predictions of biodiversity change when different populations exhibit local adaptation. Here, we tested this idea using the Japanese crayfish (Cambaroides japonicus), a threatened species encompassing two geographically structured and phylogenetically distinct genetic lineages. Location: Northern Japan. Methods: We first estimated niche differentiation between the two lineages of C. japonicus using n‐dimensional hypervolumes and then made climate change predictions of habitat suitability using SDMs constructed at two phylogenetic levels: species and intraspecific lineage. Results: Our results showed only intermediate niche overlap, demonstrating measurable niche differences between the two lineages. The species‐level SDM made future predictions that predicted much broader and severe impacts of climate change. However, the lineage‐level SDMs led to reduced climate change impacts overall and also suggested that the eastern lineage may be more resilient to climate change than the western one. Main conclusions: The two lineages of C. japonicus occupy different niche spaces. Compared with lineage‐level models, species‐level models can overestimate climate change impacts. These results not only have important implications for designing future conservation strategies for this threatened species, but also highlight the need for incorporating genetic information into SDMs to obtain realistic predictions of biodiversity change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The signal crayfish, Pacifastacus leniusculus , is non-native to Japan, and its invasion may have contributed to the habitat loss of the endemic Japanese crayfish, Cambaroides japonicus. We assessed the distribution of the signal crayfish and the Japanese crayfish in small streams that flow into Lake Akan (Hokkaido, Japan), which the signal crayfish inhabits. We conducted this survey with 2 methods: analysis of environmental DNA (eDNA) and hand capture. Of the 17 streams we surveyed, we detected signal crayfish DNA in 16 streams and Japanese crayfish DNA in 9 streams. In contrast, with our hand-capture survey of the same 17 streams, we found signal crayfish in 9 streams and Japanese crayfish in 4 streams. These results suggest that the signal crayfish may have invaded almost all the small streams with culverts around Lake Akan. The presence of signal crayfish was also confirmed on the upstream side of a 69-cm-high road-crossing culvert. There were only 2 culverts above which the absence of signal crayfish was supported by eDNA analysis, suggesting that culverts have limited effectiveness against signal crayfish invasion in our study site. Active species-specific removal projects may be an effective management option to minimize the negative impacts of signal crayfish where they are already present. eDNA has great potential as a cost-effective tool to monitor crayfish range expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]