1. The present value of human life losses associated with COVID-19 and likely productivity losses averted through COVID-19 vaccination in Madagascar.
- Author
-
Musango L, Mandrosovololona V, Randriatsarafara FM, Ranarison VM, Kirigia JM, and Ratsimbasoa CA
- Subjects
- Humans, Madagascar epidemiology, Adult, Middle Aged, Aged, Young Adult, Adolescent, Female, Male, Child, Child, Preschool, Infant, Aged, 80 and over, SARS-CoV-2, Infant, Newborn, COVID-19 prevention & control, COVID-19 epidemiology, COVID-19 mortality, COVID-19 Vaccines economics, COVID-19 Vaccines administration & dosage, Life Expectancy trends
- Abstract
Background: As of 3 March 2023, Madagascar had reported 1,422 deaths from COVID-19. Up to now, there hasn't been a study to estimate the Total Present Value of Human Life lost TPVHL MADAGASCAR , productivity losses, and potential productivity losses averted through COVID-19 vaccination for use in advocacy. The study reported in this paper aimed to fill these information gaps., Methods: The Human Capital Model (HCM) was used to estimate the TPVHL MADAGASCAR , which is the sum of the discounted value of human life losses among individuals in seven different age groups. The Present Value of Human Life for each age group PVHL i was calculated by multiplying the discount factor, the undiscounted years of life, the non-health gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and the number of COVID-19 deaths in that age group. To test the robustness of the results, the HCM was rerun five times, assuming (i) a 5% discount rate, (ii) a 10% discount rate, (iii) Africa's highest average life expectancy at birth of 78.76 years, (iv) the world's highest life expectancy of 88.17 years, (v) projected excess COVID-19 mortality of 11,418.66 deaths as of 3 March 2023 in Madagascar, and assuming different levels of vaccine coverage: 100%, 70%, 60.93%, and 8.266%., Results: The 1,422 human lives lost due to COVID-19 had a TPVHL MADAGASCAR of Int$ 46,331,412; and an average of Int$ 32,582 per human life. Re-estimation of the HCM, using (i) discount rates of 5% and 10% reduced TPVHL MADAGASCAR by 23% and 53%, respectively; (ii) average life expectancies of 78.76 years and 88.17 years increased TPVHL MADAGASCAR by 23.7% and 39.5%, respectively; (iii) projected excess COVID-19 mortality of 11,418.66 augmented TPVHL MADAGASCAR by 703%. Furthermore, it is estimated that vaccinating 70% of the target population could potentially save the country Int$ 1.1 billion, equivalent to 1.94% of the GDP., Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant health and productivity losses for Madagascar. Optimizing COVID-19 vaccination coverage for the target population could substantially reduce these losses., Competing Interests: Declarations. Ethics approval and consent to participate: Not applicable. The Republic of Madagascar Ministry of Public Health Biomedical Research Ethics Committee (Comité d'éthique de la Recherche Biomédicale) through the uploaded letter (Reference No. 75 MSANP/SG/AMM/CNPV/CERBM) dated 20 April 2023 approves that these kinds of studies do not require ethical review. The rationale being the study completely relied on the analysis of existing/secondary data (which is recorded in a manner that subjects cannot be identified at all) from the national epidemiological report and international publicly available sources (ILO, IMF, WHO, Worldometer), and falls within national research ethics committee category of research exempted from ethical review. Consent for publication: Not applicable. The manuscript does not contain a person’s data in any form. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2024. The Author(s).)
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF