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BackgroundHeterogeneous mental health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic are documented in the general population. Such heterogeneity has not been systematically assessed in youth with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and related neurodevelopmental disorders (NDD). To identify distinct patterns of the pandemic impact and their predictors in ASD/NDD youth, we focused on pandemic-related changes in symptoms and access to services.MethodsUsing a naturalistic observational design, we assessed parent responses on the Coronavirus Health and Impact Survey Initiative (CRISIS) Adapted For Autism and Related neurodevelopmental conditions (AFAR). Cross-sectional AFAR data were aggregated across 14 European and North American sites yielding a clinically well-characterized sample of N = 1275 individuals with ASD/NDD (age = 11.0 ± 3.6 years; n females = 277). To identify subgroups with differential outcomes, we applied hierarchical clustering across eleven variables measuring changes in symptoms and access to services. Then, random forest classification assessed the importance of socio-demographics, pre-pandemic service rates, clinical severity of ASD-associated symptoms, and COVID-19 pandemic experiences/environments in predicting the outcome subgroups.ResultsClustering revealed four subgroups. One subgroup-broad symptom worsening only (20%)-included youth with worsening across a range of symptoms but with service disruptions similar to the average of the aggregate sample. The other three subgroups were, relatively, clinically stable but differed in service access: primarily modified services (23%), primarily lost services (6%), and average services/symptom changes (53%). Distinct combinations of a set of pre-pandemic services, pandemic environment (e.g., COVID-19 new cases, restrictions), experiences (e.g., COVID-19 Worries), and age predicted each outcome subgroup.LimitationsNotable limitations of the study are its cross-sectional nature and focus on the first six months of the pandemic.ConclusionsConcomitantly assessing variation in changes of symptoms and service access during the first phase of the pandemic revealed differential outcome profiles in ASD/NDD youth. Subgroups were characterized by distinct prediction patterns across a set of pre- and pandemic-related experiences/contexts. Results may inform recovery efforts and preparedness in future crises; they also underscore the critical value of international data-sharing and collaborations to address the needs of those most vulnerable in times of crisis.

Objectives Canadian province-wide lockdowns have challenged children's mental health (MH) during the COVID-19 pandemic, with autistic children being at particular risk. The purpose of our study was to identify sub-groups of autistic children with distinct mental health change profiles, to understand the child-, parent-, and system-specific factors associated with such profiles in order to ultimately inform future interventions. Methods Data were drawn from a large Canadian cohort (N=1,570) across Ontario, resulting in 265 autistic children (mean age=10.9 years, 76% male). K-means clustering analyses were employed to partition distinct MH profiles in six MH measures (mood, anxiety, OCD symptoms, irritability, inattention, hyperactivity) and group differences were examined with reference to the above factors. Additionally, we investigated the characteristics of children who accessed acute MH services. Results The optimal number of clusters was two; one included those experiencing MH deterioration across all six MH measures (61.3%, 95% confidence interval [CI]=54.9 to 67.4), and a second included youth that did not experience MH changes (38.7%, 95%CI=32.6 to 45.1). Child-specific factors associated with MH deterioration included higher pre-existing internalizing symptoms, high levels of COVID stress. Parental MH challenges and system-specific factors, such as the loss of learning supports, access to physicians and material deprivation, were also associated with MH deterioration. Access to acute MH services were primarily associated with financial insecurity and loss of services. Conclusions More than half of autistic children experienced MH deterioration, and person-specific (pre-existing MH, COVID related stress), parent-specific (Parent MH) and system-level (loss of services and material deprivation) characteristics were associated with such decline, providing clinical and policy opportunities for intervention at multiple levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]