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Abstract Amid recent studies that have been exploring the wide impact that COVID-19 containment policies have had across sectors and industries, we investigate how mobility restrictions enacted in French cities during the later stages of the pandemic have affected the usage of smartphones and mobile applications. Leveraging a large-scale dataset of over 14 billion records, we unveil and quantify the substantial incidence of the different measures enforced in urban France to combat the COVID-19 epidemic on mobile service consumption. We present a simple but effective spatial linear model that can relate changes occurring at fine-grained spatial zoning in both global and per-service traffic to a limited set of socioeconomic indicators. Our model unveils some of the mechanisms that drove the significant evolution of mobile data traffic demands during the pandemic. It allows observing how the demand for mobile services has been affected by COVID-19 in very different ways across urban areas characterized by diverse population density, income levels and leisure area presence. It also discloses that usages of individual smartphone applications have been impacted in highly heterogeneous ways by the pandemic, even more so when considering the composite impacts of different transitions between periods characterized by diverse restrictions. Our results can aid governments in understanding how their measures were received across the space and different portions of population, and network operators to comprehend changes in usage due to extraordinary events, which can be used to optimize service provisioning.

Abstract Background France implemented a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to manage the COVID-19 pandemic between September 2020 and June 2021. These included a lockdown in the fall 2020 – the second since the start of the pandemic – to counteract the second wave, followed by a long period of nighttime curfew, and by a third lockdown in the spring 2021 against the Alpha wave. Interventions have so far been evaluated in isolation, neglecting the spatial connectivity between regions through mobility that may impact NPI effectiveness. Methods Focusing on September 2020–June 2021, we developed a regionally-based epidemic metapopulation model informed by observed mobility fluxes from daily mobile phone data and fitted the model to regional hospital admissions. The model integrated data on vaccination and variants spread. Scenarios were designed to assess the impact of the Alpha variant, characterized by increased transmissibility and risk of hospitalization, of the vaccination campaign and alternative policy decisions. Results The spatial model better captured the heterogeneity observed in the regional dynamics, compared to models neglecting inter-regional mobility. The third lockdown was similarly effective to the second lockdown after discounting for immunity, Alpha, and seasonality (51% vs 52% median regional reduction in the reproductive number R0, respectively). The 6pm nighttime curfew with bars and restaurants closed, implemented in January 2021, substantially reduced COVID-19 transmission. It initially led to 49% median regional reduction of R0, decreasing to 43% reduction by March 2021. In absence of vaccination, implemented interventions would have been insufficient against the Alpha wave. Counterfactual scenarios proposing a sequence of lockdowns in a stop-and-go fashion would have reduced hospitalizations and restriction days for low enough thresholds triggering and lifting restrictions. Conclusions Spatial connectivity induced by mobility impacted the effectiveness of interventions especially in regions with higher mobility rates. Early evening curfew with gastronomy sector closed allowed authorities to delay the third wave. Stop-and-go lockdowns could have substantially lowered both healthcare and societal burdens if implemented early enough, compared to the observed application of lockdown-curfew-lockdown, but likely at the expense of several labor sectors. These findings contribute to characterize the effectiveness of implemented strategies and improve pandemic preparedness.