1. Monte Carlo Regression for Evaluating Children's Role in the Pandemic Spread on the Example of Delta COVID-19 Wave.
- Author
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Mańdziuk J, Okarska-Napierała M, Woźniak W, Hryniewicka A, Radziński P, Gambin A, Podsiadły E, Demkow U, and Kuchar E
- Subjects
- Child, Humans, SARS-CoV-2 genetics, Pandemics, Prospective Studies, COVID-19 epidemiology
- Abstract
Background: The children's role in transmitting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the familial settings is uncertain. We aimed to assess how often children were the index cases transmitting SARS-CoV-2 into their households during the Delta wave, and to identify risk factors of children being the index case., Methods: In this prospective survey study, we collected information regarding household members of SARS-CoV-2-positive children tested in a single tertiary hospital. Some patients were tested with polymerase chain reaction and those samples were typed and classified as Delta or non-Delta variant. We have used the Monte Carlo approach to assess predictors of children being the index case in the household., Results: We surveyed 629 families and 515 of them fulfilled inclusion criteria. The child was the index case in 359 (69.71%) households. Attending childcare facilities in all age groups was positively associated with being the index case in the household [nursery, estimate = 1.456, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.456-1.457, P < 0.001; kindergarten, estimate = 0.899, 95% CI: 0.898-0.900, P = 0.003; school, estimate = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.229-1.231, P = 0.001]. The same association was present in the subgroup of the families with the predominant Delta variant, but not in the subgroup with the predominant non-Delta variant., Conclusions: Attending childcare and educational facilities might be a significant predictor of a child being the SARS-CoV-2 index case in their household. Children's role in driving the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic changes in consecutive waves. The Monte Carlo approach can be applied to assess risk factors of infectious agents' spread in future epidemics., Competing Interests: The authors have no conflicts of interest to disclose., (Copyright © 2023 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2023
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