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With an over 80 million population, Iran is the second-largest country in the Middle East. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread over all 31 provinces of Iran, leading to the most cases and death among the Eastern Mediterranean countries. At the same time, Iran is under the United States political and economic sanctions that compromised Iran's health system. Although medicines and basic medical equipment exempted from the economic sanctions, direct and indirect effects of sanctions have restricted Iran's banking system, and consequently has led to a wide range of limitation on trade, manufacturing sector, insurance and ventures. All these circumstances have meant that Iran is restricted to provide the essential basic medical equipment for diagnosis, treatment and prevention of the COVID-19. Although sanctions are not the sole reason for this high rate of mortality and morbidity in a short time period, the chronic and long-term effects of sanctions may be more tangible than their acute impact. In conclusion, providing health services is one of the major problems of Iran's health system during this pandemic that potentially influence on morbidity and mortality of the COVID-19. Iran needs to be free from sanctions for battling against this crisis.Key messagesIran is one of the countries that significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.Iran is under political and economic sanctions that consequently influence on their health system during the COVID-19 crisis.The chronic and long-term effects of sanctions may be more tangible than their acute impact.

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic posed an unprecedented shock on the demand and supply chains of commodities, thus, disrupting trade flows globally. Albeit East African Community (EAC) countries reported negative trade balances even prior to the inception of the pandemic; it remains unknown as to whether the situation significantly deteriorated in the pandemic era. This study, therefore, evaluated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the trade balance of EAC economies for the period March 2020–December 2022 using the PMG model. Further, it assessed the differentiated impact of the pandemic on the value of imports and exports. First, the findings revealed the presence of a long-run relationship between COVID-19 and trade deficit/imports/exports in the region. Secondly, whereas the impact of the pandemic on the trade deficit was insignificant in the short run; it was positive and significant in the long run. This suggested that despite the easing of the stringent lockdown measures, countries in the region are still feeling the effects of the pandemic. Thirdly, while the pandemic significantly increased imports in the short run, its impact was insignificant in the long run. Contrariwise, no impact of the pandemic was found on exports. The study, thus, recommends that though current increased controls and surveillance on trade remain inevitable, such measures should be instigated in a manner that does not overly disrupt the normal trade flows. Additionally, EAC countries need to bolster their production chains to guarantee self-reliance which is critical in ensuring that intraregional trade in the region remains buoyant in such challenging times.

Due to COVID-19, the 32nd Olympic Games were postponed temporarily for the first time, apart from those cancelled during the First and Second World Wars. Did the pandemic also affect the results? We aim to understand the impact of stringency measures on athletes' performance in the Olympics. For many athletes, the Olympics are the pinnacle of their careers, and they follow intense training schedules to arrive at the Games in peak physical condition. Stringency measures may have affected their results by making it harder for them to train effectively, to access sports infrastructure, to meet teammates, and more generally to follow an athletic lifestyle. Our quantitative analysis shows that stringency measures had an effect on the number of Olympic medals won, especially in team sports. This is consistent with the idea that stricter non-pharmaceutical interventions made it harder for teams to train together and achieve the necessary chemistry and harmony to succeed in such a competitive event. Furthermore, women were more severely penalized by higher stringency measures than men in team events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the short-term effects of differential exposure to COVID-19 on educational outcomes in Guatemala. The government adopted a warning index to classify municipalities by cases and infection rates in 2020. Using administrative panel data for all students in Guatemala, we employ a difference-in-differences strategy that leverages municipal differences over time in the warning index to estimate the effects of the pandemic on dropout, promotion, and school switching in 2021 and 2022. Results show that municipalities with a higher warning index had significantly larger dropout, lower promotion rates, and a greater share of students switching from private to public schools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores how entrepreneurial firms responded to - and displayed resilience in - coping with the uncertainty generated by an unexpected crisis. We examine how entrepreneurs leveraged slack resources to build organizational resilience and, thanks to their entrepreneurial attitude, could eventually turn adversities into opportunities. Through a multiple case study, four key entrepreneurial responses emerge about the type of slack resources (business or family) and extent of entrepreneurial attitude (favourable or unfavourable) leveraged: "waiting while seeding", "keeping business as usual", "striving to resist" and "surfing the pandemic". Slack resources, both business and family, can enable the absorption of a shock, contributing to building absorptive resilience, or the adaptation to the shock, contributing to building adaptive resilience. Yet, they are not sufficient to turn adversities into opportunities because firms also require a favourable entrepreneurial attitude to activate slack. Plain English Summary How entrepreneurial firms respond to - and display resilience in - coping with a crisis's uncertainty varies according to the entrepreneurial attitude of the entrepreneur and the typology of slack resource leveraged. We find that these firms responded to the Covid 19 crisis either through: "waiting while seeding", "keeping business as usual", "striving to resist" or "surfing the pandemic". The four responses differ in the type of slack resources — business or family — and extent of entrepreneurial attitude — favourable or unfavourable — leveraged. Slack resources, both business and family, are not sufficient to turn adversities into opportunities because firms require a favourable entrepreneurial attitude to activate slack. The study contributes to business practice by showing that both family and non-family businesses to thrive in the "new normal" era will have to develop the entrepreneurial resources of the team. Policymakers must be attentive to how firms' accumulated resources are deployed during times of crisis and foster the capture of opportunities out of the storm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whether deserved on not, US Presidents often receive the blame or the credit for the nature of the economy and direction of the country. Therefore, the status of the economy and the country in an election year can be a very important factor in election success for an incumbent President (or his party if an incumbent is not running). This is especially true in 'battleground states' due to the presence of the Electoral College system where Presidential candidates need only win different combinations of states in order to become President. However, the 2020 Presidential election was vastly different from past election cycles in that an additional variable, COVID-19, was added to the decision calculus of voters. Eventually, the 2020 election came down to the extremely slim margins in three states (Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin) and thin margins in two others (Pennsylvania and Michigan). This paper shows that deaths from COVID-19 at the county level played a small role in demotivating voters to turnout in 2020 to cast their vote for Joe Biden as President. In other words, without Covid-19, President Trump's losses within these five states would have been even larger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) represents a large increase in background risk for individuals. Like the COVID-19 pandemic, extreme events (e.g. financial downturns, natural disasters, and war) have been shown to change attitudes towards risk. Using a risk apportionment approach, we examine whether risk aversion as well as higher order risk attitudes (HORAs) (prudence and temperance) have changed during COVID-19. This methodology allows us to measure model-free HORAs. We include prudence and temperance as higher order measures, as these two have been largely understudied under extreme events but are determinants of decisions related to the health and financial domains. Once we account for socio-demographic characteristics, we find an overall increase in risk aversion during COVID-19. We also find similar results using a hypothetical survey question which measures willingness to take risks. We do not find changes in prudence and temperance using the risk apportionment methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has decelerated substantial parts of economic and human interaction. This paper estimates football matches' contribution to the spread of COVID-19 during Germany's second infection wave in summer and autumn 2020. Exploiting the exogenous fixture schedules of matches across German counties in an event study design, we estimate that one additional match in a county on average raises daily cases by between 0.34 to 0.71 cases per 100,000 inhabitants after three weeks. Hence, this implies an increase of the seven-day incidence per 100,000 inhabitants by around three to seven percent. We do not find qualitatively different results for a subsample of German top league matches with the strictest hygiene regulations or matches with higher occupancy levels. Notably, the found effect is mediated by the incidence level at the day of the match with very few infections for matches at a seven-day incidence below 25. Using mobile phone data, we identify strong increases in the local mobility as an underlying mechanism. We finally show that the ban of away fans successfully limited the spread of COVID-19 beyond county borders. Our results alert that even outdoor mass gatherings can remarkably cause infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines changes in labor supply, income, and time allocation during the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico. Using an event-study design, we show that the COVID-19 recession had severe negative consequences for Mexican households. In the first month of the pandemic, employment declined by 17 percentage points. Men recovered their employment faster than women, where men's employment approaches original levels by 2021Q2. Women, on the other hand, experienced persistent employment losses. Within-household, men also increased their time spent on household chores while neither gender (persistently) increased their time caring for others. Instead, children reduced their time spent on schoolwork by 25%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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COVID-19 placed a special role on fiscal policy in rescuing companies short of liquidity from insolvency. In the first months of the crisis, SMEs as the backbone of Germany's economy benefited from large and mainly indiscriminate aid measures. Avoiding business failures in a whatever-it-takes fashion contrasts, however, with the cleansing mechanism of economic crises: a mechanism which forces unviable firms out of the market, thereby reallocating resources efficiently. By focusing on firms' pre-crisis financial standing, we estimate the extent to which the policy response induced an insolvency gap and analyze whether the gap is characterized by firms which were already struggling before the pandemic. With the policy measures being focused on smaller firms, we also examine whether this insolvency gap differs with respect to firm size. Our results show that the COVID-19 policy response in Germany has triggered a backlog of insolvencies that is particularly pronounced among financially weak, small firms, having potential long-term implications on entrepreneurship and economic recovery. Plain English Summary This study analyzes the extent to which the strong policy support to companies in the early phase of the COVID-19 crisis has prevented a large wave of corporate insolvencies. Using data of about 1.5 million German companies, it is shown that it was mainly smaller firms that experienced strong financial distress and would have gone bankrupt without policy assistance. In times of crises, insolvencies usually allow for a reallocation of employees and capital to more efficient firms. However, the analysis reveals that this 'cleansing effect' is hampered in the current crisis as the largely indiscriminate granting of liquidity subsidies and the temporary suspension of the duty to file for insolvency have caused an insolvency gap that is driven by firms which were already in a weak financial position before the crisis. Overall, the insolvency gap is estimated to affect around 25,000 companies, a substantial number compared to the around 16,300 actual insolvencies in 2020. In the ongoing crisis, policy makers should prefer instruments favoring entrepreneurs who respond innovatively to the pandemic instead of prolonging the survival of near-insolvent firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the impact of COVID-19 on 42,401 UK SMEs and how government intervention affects their capability to survive the pandemic. The results show that, without governmental mitigation schemes, 59% of UK SMEs report negative earnings and that their residual life is reduced from 164 to 139 days. The analysis shows that government support scheme reduces the number of SMEs with negative earnings to 49% and allows extending the residual life for SMEs with negative earnings to 194 days. In addition, the support scheme reduces the number of jobs at risk in our sample by around 20%. However, our results suggest that weaker firms benefit more than strong ones. Besides, industries that are worst hit by COVID-19 are not those that benefit most from the government support scheme. We ascribe this result to the fact that the schemes do not discriminate between those firms that deserve support and those that do not deserve it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we employ a combination of time regression discontinuity design method (T‐RD) and the difference‐in‐difference method (DID) to identify and quantify the causal effects of the strict lockdown policy on vegetable prices using multiple‐year daily price data from 151 wholesale markets of Chinese cabbage. We find that the lockdown policy caused a large and immediate surge in price and price dispersion of Chinese cabbage, though they fluctuated smoothly for the same period in normal years. The DID results further show that the price surge peaked in the fourth week of lockdown but gradually came down to the level of a normal year by week 11. However, the price rose again (though to a much smaller extent) in response to the resurgence of COVID‐19 in a few provinces in early‐mid April but quickly returned to the normal level in week 15 when the lockdown measures were largely removed. We also find that the supply chain disruption is the driving factor for the price hike. Policy implications are drawn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID‐19 has led many governments to impose lockdowns in efforts to reduce the spread of the virus. One of the many consequences of the lockdown is a reduction in crime. We apply a difference‐in‐differences approach to the 2018–2020 Crime Statistics to investigate the effect of the 2020 lockdown on crime victimization in Japan. We find that the 2020 lockdown leads to 12.7% and 20.9% declines in violent and property crime victimization rates per 100,000 people, respectively. Moreover, we observe that premeditated crimes, such as breaking‐and‐entering and sexual assault, decline more than non‐premeditated crimes, such as homicide. We also explore the heterogeneous effects of the lockdown by age groups. We observe that there is a significant decline in sexual assault victimization for those between the ages of 0 and 29, and there are significant declines in overall violent and property crime victimizations and their subtypes for those between ages of 30 and 59. Finally, we show that there is an improvement in suicide rates, which suggests that better mental health is the mechanism partially mediating the relationship between lockdown and crime victimization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the effects of Covid-19 and related restrictions on individuals with dependent children in Germany. We specifically focus on the role of day care center and school closures, which may be regarded as a "disruptive exogenous shock" to family life. We make use of a novel representative survey of parental well-being collected in May and June 2020 in Germany, when schools and day care centers were closed but while other measures had been relaxed and new infections were low. In our descriptive analysis, we compare well-being during this period with a pre-crisis period for different groups. In a difference-in-differences design, we compare the change for individuals with children to the change for individuals without children, accounting for unrelated trends as well as potential survey mode and context effects. We find that the crisis lowered the relative well-being of individuals with children, especially for individuals with young children, for women, and for persons with lower secondary schooling qualifications. Our results suggest that public policy measures taken to contain Covid-19 can have large effects on family well-being, with implications for child development and parental labor market outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]