1. Modelling the reopen strategy from dynamic zero-COVID in China considering the sequela and reinfection.
- Author
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Wu S, Huang Z, Grant-Muller S, Gu D, and Yang L
- Subjects
- Humans, SARS-CoV-2, Post-Acute COVID-19 Syndrome, Reinfection, China epidemiology, COVID-19 epidemiology
- Abstract
Although the dynamic zero-COVID policy has effectively controlled virus spread in China, China has to face challenges in balancing social-economic burdens, vaccine protection, and the management of long COVID symptoms. This study proposed a fine-grained agent-based model to simulate various strategies for transitioning from a dynamic zero-COVID policy with a case study in Shenzhen. The results indicate that a gradual transition, maintaining some restrictions, can mitigate infection outbreaks. However, the severity and duration of epidemics vary based on the strictness of the measures. In contrast, a more direct transition to reopening may lead to rapid herd immunity but necessitate preparedness for potential sequelae and reinfections. Policymakers should assess healthcare capacity for severe cases and potential long-COVID symptoms and determine the most suitable approach tailored to local conditions., (© 2023. The Author(s).)
- Published
- 2023
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