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Respiratory disease, attributed to influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and SARS-CoV-2, was reported nationally during the 2023/2024 respiratory viral season. The emergence of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants was considered a significant factor contributing to the rise in COVID-19 cases. Data from the Johns Hopkins Hospital System (JHHS) showed that enterovirus/rhinovirus had also been circulating at high rates. Analyzing clinical outcomes of the most prevalent respiratory viruses is crucial for understanding the role of circulating viral genotypes. A retrospective cohort of patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, influenza, RSV, or enterovirus/rhinovirus between 1 June and 31 December 2023 was included in the study. Remnant clinical samples were utilized for targeted viral whole-genome sequencing and genotyping. Patients' metadata and outcomes following infection were studied, stratified by viral variants and genotypes. The increase of SARS-CoV-2 positivity in December was associated with the predominance of JN.1. Admissions for patients under 18 years old were primarily associated with enterovirus/rhinovirus and RSV, while older age groups were mainly linked to SARS-CoV-2 and influenza infections. SARS-CoV-2-related admissions increased with the predominance of the JN.1 variant in December. No significant difference in admissions for influenza subtypes, rhinovirus species, or SARS-CoV-2 variants was observed. RSV A was associated with slightly higher odds of admission compared with RSV B. Our data highlight the importance of systematically analyzing respiratory viral infections to inform public health strategies and clinical management, especially as SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic. The findings highlight the value of expanded genomic surveillance in elucidating the clinical significance of viral evolution.IMPORTANCEThe analysis of the epidemiology and clinical outcomes of multiple co-circulating respiratory viruses in the early 2023/2024 respiratory virus season highlights the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 JN.1 variant as well as underscores the importance of enterovirus/rhinovirus in respiratory infections. Understanding these dynamics is essential for refining public health strategies and clinical management, especially as SARS-CoV-2 transitions to an endemic status. This work emphasizes the need for ongoing surveillance, robust diagnostic algorithms, and detailed genomic analyses to anticipate and mitigate the burden of respiratory viral infections, ultimately contributing to more informed decision-making in healthcare settings and better patient outcomes., Competing Interests: H.H.M. reports research collaborations with Hologic, Bio-Rad, and DiaSorin. H.H.M. serves as an advisor for BD Diagnostics and on the advisory board of Seegene. H.H.M. received honoraria from BD Diagnostics and Bio-Rad.

Pregnant patients are at greater risk of hospitalization with severe COVID-19 than non-pregnant people. This was a retrospective observational cohort study of remnant clinical specimens from patients who visited acute care hospitals within the Johns Hopkins Health System in the Baltimore, MD-Washington DC, area between October 2020 and May 2022. Participants included confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-infected pregnant people and matched non-pregnant people (the matching criteria included age, race/ethnicity, area deprivation index, insurance status, and vaccination status to ensure matched demographics). The primary dependent measures were clinical COVID-19 outcomes, infectious virus recovery, viral RNA levels, and mucosal anti-spike (S) IgG titers from upper respiratory tract samples. A total of 452 individuals (117 pregnant and 335 non-pregnant) were included in the study, with both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals represented. Pregnant patients were at increased risk of hospitalization (odds ratio [OR] = 4.2; confidence interval [CI] = 2.0-8.6), intensive care unit admittance (OR = 4.5; CI = 1.2-14.2), and being placed on supplemental oxygen therapy (OR = 3.1; CI = 1.3-6.9). Individuals infected during their third trimester had higher mucosal anti-S IgG titers and lower viral RNA levels ( P < 0.05) than those infected during their first or second trimesters. Pregnant individuals experiencing breakthrough infections due to the Omicron variant had reduced anti-S IgG compared to non-pregnant patients ( P < 0.05). The observed increased severity of COVID-19 and reduced mucosal antibody responses particularly among pregnant participants infected with the Omicron variant suggest that maintaining high levels of SARS-CoV-2 immunity through booster vaccines may be important for the protection of this at-risk population.IMPORTANCEIn this retrospective observational cohort study, we analyzed remnant clinical samples from non-pregnant and pregnant individuals with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections who visited the Johns Hopkins Hospital System between October 2020 and May 2022. Disease severity, including intensive care unit admission, was greater among pregnant than non-pregnant patients. Vaccination reduced recovery of infectious virus and viral RNA levels in non-pregnant patients, but not in pregnant patients. In pregnant patients, increased nasopharyngeal viral RNA levels and recovery of infectious virus were associated with reduced mucosal IgG antibody responses, especially among women in their first trimester of pregnancy or experiencing breakthrough infections from Omicron variants. Taken together, this study provides insights into how pregnant patients are at greater risk of severe COVID-19. The novelty of this study is that it focuses on the relationship between the mucosal antibody response and its association with virus load and disease outcomes in pregnant people, whereas previous studies have focused on serological immunity. Vaccination status, gestational age, and SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant impact mucosal antibody responses and recovery of infectious virus from pregnant patients., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Objectives: To assess the values of and attitudes towards the use of rapid SARS-CoV-2 antigen-detection tests for self-testing in a rural and an urban area in Peru., Design: Cross-sectional, street-based population survey., Setting: A series of over 400 randomly selected street points in Valle del Mantaro and in Lima., Participants: 438 respondents (203 female) participated. They were all older than 17 years and provided informed consent for participation., Intervention: All respondents answered on the spot, a 35-item questionnaire developed in KoboToolbox., Primary and Secondary Outcome Measures: Primary outcomes of interest were: likelihood to use a SARS-CoV-2 self-test; willingness to pay for a SARS-CoV-2 self-test and likelihood to comply with recommended actions following a positive SARS-CoV-2 self-test result. Bivariate analyses and Poisson regression (PR) analyses were performed to identify significant associations between dependent variables and independent variables pertaining to respondents' characteristics, risk perception and previous experiences with conventional COVID-19 testing., Results: Of the 438 respondents, 51.49% had previous experience with conventional COVID-19 testing; 20.37% had COVID-19 disease; 86.96% accepted the idea of SARS-CoV-2 self-testing; and, 78.95% would be likely to use it if needed. Almost all (94.75%) would pay for a self-testing device (mean acceptable payment: US$10.4) if it was not provided free of charge by health authorities. Overall, 93.12%, 86.93% and 85.32% would self-isolate, report the results and warn their contacts, respectively. Being a female (adjusted PR 1.05, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.09, p<0.018), having completed secondary education (adjusted PR 1.18, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.37, p<0.024) and expressing likelihood to use self-testing (adjusted PR 1.08, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.16, p<0.0.24) could be predictors of willingness to pay for a self-test., Conclusions: Self-testing is perceived as an acceptable approach. Health authorities in Peru should facilitate access to this approach to complement healthcare facilities-led testing efforts for COVID-19. Future research is necessary to understand the impact of self-testing in case detection and pandemic control., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: The variant of concern Omicron has become the sole circulating severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant for the past several months. Omicron subvariants BA.1, BA.2, BA.3, BA.4, and BA.5 evolved over the time, with BA.1 causing the largest wave of infections globally in December 2021-January 2022. This study compared the clinical outcomes in patients infected with different Omicron subvariants and the relative viral loads and recovery of infectious virus from upper respiratory specimens., Methods: SARS-CoV-2-positive remnant clinical specimens, diagnosed at the Johns Hopkins Microbiology Laboratory between December 2021 and July 2022, were used for whole-genome sequencing. The clinical outcomes of infections with Omicron subvariants were compared with infections with BA.1. Cycle threshold (Ct) values and the recovery of infectious virus on the VeroTMPRSS2 cell line from clinical specimens were compared., Results: BA.1 was associated with the largest increase in SARS-CoV-2 positivity rate and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related hospitalizations at the Johns Hopkins system. After a peak in January, cases decreased in the spring, but the emergence of BA.2.12.1 followed by BA.5 in May 2022 led to an increase in case positivity and admissions. BA.1 infections had a lower mean Ct value when compared with other Omicron subvariants. BA.5 samples had a greater likelihood of having infectious virus at Ct values <20., Conclusions: Omicron subvariants continue to be associated with a relatively high rate of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positivity and hospital admissions. The BA.5 infections are more while BA.2 infections are less likely to have infectious virus, suggesting potential differences in infectibility during the Omicron waves., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest. H. H. M. reports grants or contracts from NIH UM1AI0686, NIH UM1 AI068613-14, NIH R01 DA045556-04S1, NIH 3U54HL143541-02S2, NIH 4UH3CA211396-03, and NIH R01 CA243393 and receipt of equipment, materials, drugs, medical writing, gifts or other services from BioRad (research contract), DiaSorin (research contract), and Hologic (research contract). R. E. E. reports a Pan American Society of Clinical Virology travel award. All other authors report no potential conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Objectives: Nigeria has been badly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the poor testing coverage in the country may make controlling the spread of COVID-19 challenging. The aim of this study was to assess the general public's acceptability of SARS-CoV-2 self-testing as an approach which could help to address this gap., Setting: A household-based survey was conducted in five urban and five rural local government areas in the states of Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Benue, Kaduna and Lagos, in mid-2021., Participants: 2126 respondents (969 were female) participated. A five-pronged, probabilistic sampling approach was used to recruit individuals older than 17 years and available to participate when randomly approached in their households by the surveyors. A 35-item questionnaire was used to collect data on their values towards SARS-CoV-2 self-testing. Primary outcomes were: likelihood to use a self-test; willingness to pay for a self-test; and likely actions following a reactive self-test result., Results: Of the total 2126 respondents, 14 (0.66%) were aware of COVID-19 self-testing, 1738 (81.80%) agreed with the idea of people being able to self-test for COVID-19, 1786 (84.05%) were likely/very likely to use self-tests if available, 1931 (90.87%) would report a positive result and 1875 (88.28%) would isolate if they self-tested positive. Factors significantly associated with the use of a self-test were having a college education or higher (adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR): 1.55; 95% CI: 1.03 to 2.33), full-time employment (AOR: 1.67; 95% CI: 1.06 to 2.63), feeling at moderate/high risk of COVID-19 (AOR: 2.43; 95% CI: 1.70 to 3.47) and presence of individuals at risk of COVID-19 within the household (AOR: 1.38; 95% CI: 1.06 to 1.78)., Conclusion: A majority of Nigerians agree with the concept of COVID-19 self-testing and would act to protect public health on self-testing positive. Self-test implementation research is necessary to frame how acceptability impacts uptake of preventive behaviours following a positive and a negative self-test result., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

BACKGROUNDIncreased SARS-CoV-2 reinfection rates have been reported recently, with some locations basing reinfection on a second positive PCR test at least 90 days after initial infection. In this study, we used Johns Hopkins SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance data to evaluate the frequency of sequencing-validated, confirmed, and inferred reinfections between March 2020 and July 2022.METHODSPatients who had 2 or more positive SARS-CoV-2 tests in our system, with samples sequenced as a part of our surveillance efforts, were identified as the cohort for our study. SARS-CoV-2 genomes of patients' initial and later samples were compared.RESULTSA total of 755 patients (920 samples) had a positive test at least 90 days after the initial test, with a median time between tests of 377 days. Sequencing was attempted on 231 samples and was successful in 127. Rates of successful sequencing spiked during the Omicron surge; there was a higher median number of days from initial infection in these cases compared with those with failed sequences. A total of 122 (98%) patients showed evidence of reinfection; 45 of these patients had sequence-validated reinfection and 77 had inferred reinfections (later sequencing showed a clade that was not circulating when the patient was initially infected). Of the 45 patients with sequence-validated reinfections, 43 (96%) had reinfections that were caused by the Omicron variant, 41 (91%) were symptomatic, 32 (71%) were vaccinated prior to the second infection, 6 (13%) were immunosuppressed, and only 2 (4%) were hospitalized.CONCLUSIONSequence-validated reinfections increased with the Omicron surge but were generally associated with mild infections.FUNDINGFunding was provided by the Johns Hopkins Center of Excellence in Influenza Research and Surveillance (HHSN272201400007C), CDC (75D30121C11061), Johns Hopkins University President's Fund Research Response, Johns Hopkins Department of Pathology, and the Maryland Department of Health.

Mounting evidence suggests the primary mode of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is aerosolized transmission from close contact with infected individuals. While transmission is a direct result of human encounters, falling humidity may enhance aerosolized transmission risks similar to other respiratory viruses (e.g., influenza). Using Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, we assessed the relative effects of absolute humidity and changes in individual movement patterns on daily cases while accounting for regional differences in climatological regimes. Our results indicate that increasing humidity was associated with declining cases in the spring and summer of 2020, while decreasing humidity and increase in residential mobility during winter months likely caused increases in COVID-19 cases. The effects of humidity were generally greater in regions with lower humidity levels. Given the possibility that COVID-19 will be endemic, understanding the behavioral and environmental drivers of COVID-19 seasonality in the United States will be paramount as policymakers, healthcare systems, and researchers forecast and plan accordingly., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: Brazil is among the countries in South America where the COVID-19 pandemic has hit the general population hardest. Self-testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection is one of the community-based strategies that could help asymptomatic individuals at-risk of COVID-19, as well as those living in areas that are difficult for health personnel to reach, to know their infectious status and contribute to impeding further transmission of the virus., Methods: A population-based survey was conducted in November 2021, to assess the acceptability of rapid SARS-CoV-2 antigen self-testing among the population of São Paulo. Survey respondents were approached at more than 400 different street-points that were randomly selected using a five-stage randomization process. A 35-item structured questionnaire was used. Dependent variables for our analyses were the likelihood to use and willingness to pay for self-testing, and the likelihood of taking preventive measures to prevent onward transmission of SARS-CoV-2 following a reactive self-test result. Bivariate and multivariate regression analyses were performed., Results: Overall, 417 respondents (44.12% female) participated; 19.66% had previously had COVID-19 disease. A minority (9.59%) felt at high-risk of COVID-19. The majority of both females and males (73.91% and 60.09%, respectively) were in favor of the idea of SARS-CoV-2 self-testing. Overall, if self-tests were available, almost half of the sample would be very likely (n = 54, 12.95%) or likely (n = 151, 36.21%) to use one if they felt they needed to. Upon receiving a positive self-test result, the majority of respondents would communicate it (88.49%), request facility-based post-test counseling (98.32%), self-isolate (97.60%), and warn their close contacts (96.64%)., Conclusion: Rapid SARS-CoV-2 antigen self-testing could be an acceptable screening tool in São Paulo. The population would be empowered by having access to a technology that would allow them to test, even if asymptomatic, when traveling, or going to work or school. If there is a surge in the incidence of cases, self-testing could be a good approach for mass case detection by Brazil's already overstretched Unified Health System., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Objectives: To understand the public's perceptions around rapid SARS-CoV-2 antigen self-testing in Kenya, including the drivers of acceptability, willingness to pay, and adherence to hygiene and prevention recommendations following a positive self-test. Methods: A household-based, cross-sectional survey, using a 35-item questionnaire, was conducted in Mombasa and Taita-Taveta counties, Kenya, during August 2021. Individuals aged ≥18 years were enrolled using a stratified sampling approach. Results: There were 419 participants (mean age 35.7 years). A minority (10.5%) had ever tested for SARS-CoV-2. If SARS-CoV-2 self-testing were available, 39.9% and 41.5% would be likely and very likely, respectively, to use it. If unavailable free-of-charge, 63.01% would pay for it. Multivariate analyses suggested that people in rural areas (Coefficient 0.30, 95%CI: 0.11-0.48, p = 0.002), aged 36-55 (Coefficient 0.21, 95%CI: 0.03-0.40, p = 0.023), and employed full time (Coefficient 0.32, 95%CI: 0.06-0.58, p = 0.016) would have more odds to adhere to recommended hygiene and prevention actions. Conclusion: SARS-CoV-2 self-testing was considered acceptable. Availability of self-testing could expand access to COVID-19 testing in Kenya, particularly among rural communities who have limited access to testing, and among mildly symptomatic individuals., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Manguro, Shilton, Omenda, Owira, Batheja, Banerji, Chabeda, Temmerman, Jako, Ndungu, Luchters, Ivanova Reipold and Martínez-Pérez.)

Background: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant of concern (VOC) B.1.617.2 (Delta) displaced B.1.1.7 (Alpha) and is associated with increases in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, greater transmissibility, and higher viral RNA loads, but data are lacking regarding the infectious virus load and antiviral antibody levels in the nasal tract., Methods: Whole genome sequencing, cycle threshold (Ct) values, infectious virus, anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G (IgG) levels, and clinical chart reviews were combined to characterize SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the National Capital Region between January and September 2021 and differentiate infections in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals by the Delta, Alpha, and B.1.2 (the predominant lineage prior to Alpha) variants., Results: The Delta variant displaced the Alpha variant to constitute 99% of the circulating lineages in the National Capital Region by August 2021. In Delta infections, 28.5% were breakthrough cases in fully vaccinated individuals compared to 4% in the Alpha infected cohort. Breakthrough infections in both cohorts were associated with comorbidities, but only Delta infections were associated with a significant increase in the median days after vaccination. More than 74% of Delta samples had infectious virus compared to <30% from the Alpha cohort. The recovery of infectious virus with both variants was associated with low levels of local SARS-CoV-2 IgG., Conclusions: Infection with the Delta variant was associated with more frequent recovery of infectious virus in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals compared to the Alpha variant but was not associated with an increase in disease severity in fully vaccinated individuals. Infectious virus was correlated with the presence of low amounts of antiviral IgG in the nasal specimens., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Although COVID-19 vaccines are globally available, waning immunity and emerging vaccine-evasive variants of concern have hindered the international response and transition to a post-pandemic era. Testing to identify and isolate infectious individuals remains the most proactive strategy for containing an ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. We developed a stochastic, compartmentalized model to simulate the impact of using Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) assays, rapid antigen tests, and vaccinations on SARS-CoV-2 spread. We compare testing strategies across an example high-income country (the United States) and low- and middle-income country (India). We detail the optimal testing frequency and coverage in the US and India to mitigate an emerging outbreak even in a vaccinated population: overall, maximizing testing frequency is most important, but having high testing coverage remains necessary when there is sustained transmission. A resource-limited vaccination strategy still requires high-frequency testing to minimize subsequent outbreaks and is 16.50% more effective in reducing cases in India than the United States. Tailoring testing strategies to transmission settings can help effectively reduce disease burden more than if a uniform approach were employed without regard to epidemiological variability across locations., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: The increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections in December 2021 was driven primarily by the Omicron variant, which largely displaced the Delta over a three-week span. Outcomes from infection with Omicron remain uncertain. We evaluated whether clinical outcomes and viral loads differed between Delta and Omicron infections during the period when both variants were co-circulating., Methods: In this retrospective observational cohort study, remnant clinical specimens, positive for SARS-CoV-2 after standard of care testing at the Johns Hopkins Microbiology Laboratory, between the last week of November and the end of December 2021, were used for whole viral genome sequencing. Cycle threshold values (Ct) for viral RNA, the presence of infectious virus, and levels of respiratory IgG were measured, and clinical outcomes were obtained. Differences in each measure were compared between variants stratified by vaccination status., Findings: The Omicron variant displaced Delta during the study period and constituted 95% of the circulating lineages by the end of December 2021. Patients with Omicron infections (N = 1,119) were more likely to be vaccinated compared to patients with Delta (N = 908), but were less likely to be admitted (0.33 CI 0.21-0.52), require ICU level care (0.38 CI 0.17-0.87), or succumb to infection (0.26 CI 0.06-1.02) regardless of vaccination status. There was no statistically significant difference in Ct values based on the lineage regardless of the vaccination status. Recovery of infectious virus in cell culture was reduced in boosted patients compared to fully vaccinated without a booster and unvaccinated when infected with the Delta lineage. However, in patients with Omicron infections, recovery of infectious virus was not affected by vaccination., Interpretation: Compared to Delta, Omicron was more likely to cause breakthrough infections of vaccinated individuals, yet admissions were less frequent. Admitted patients might develop severe disease comparable to Delta. Efforts for reducing Omicron transmission are required as, though the admission risk might be lower, the increased numbers of infections cause large numbers of hospitalizations., Funding: NIH/NIAID Center of Excellence in Influenza Research and Surveillance contract HHS N2772201400007C, Johns Hopkins University, Maryland department of health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention contract 75D30121C11061, and The Modeling Infectious Diseases in Healthcare Network (MInD) under awards U01CK000589., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no relevant competing interests, (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Large-scale SARS-CoV-2 molecular testing coupled with whole genome sequencing in the diagnostic laboratories is instrumental for real-time genomic surveillance. The extensive genomic, laboratory, and clinical data provide a valuable resource for understanding cases of reinfection versus prolonged RNA shedding and protracted infections. In this study, data from a total of 22,292 clinical specimens, positive by SARS-CoV-2 molecular diagnosis at Johns Hopkins clinical virology laboratory between March 11 th 2020 to September 23 rd 2021, were used to identify patients with two or more positive results. A total of 3,650 samples collected from 1,529 patients who had between 2 and 20 positive results were identified in a time frame that extended up to 403 days from the first positive. Cycle threshold values (Ct) were available for 1,622 samples, the median of which was over 30 by 11 days after the first positive. Extended recovery of infectious virus on cell culture was notable for up to 70 days after the first positive in immunocompromised patients. Whole genome sequencing data generated as a part of our SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance was available for 1,027 samples from patients that had multiple positive tests. Positive samples collected more than 10 days after initial positive with high quality sequences (coverage >90% and mean depth >100), were more likely to be from unvaccinated, or immunosuppressed patients. Reinfections with viral variants of concern were found in 3 patients more than 130 days from prior infections with a different viral clade. In 75 patients that had 2 or more high quality sequences, the acquisition of more substitutions or deletions was associated with lack of vaccination and longer time between the recovered viruses. Our study highlights the value of integrating genomic, laboratory, and clinical data for understanding the biology of SARS-CoV-2 as well as for setting a precedent for future epidemics and pandemics., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Morris, Luo, Sachithanandham, Li, Schwartz, Gaston, Gniazdowski, Giraldo-Castillo, Amadi, Norton, Wright, Klein, Pekosz and Mostafa.)

Background: India has been severely affected by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. However, due to shortcomings in disease surveillance, the burden of mortality associated with COVID-19 remains poorly understood. We aimed to assess changes in mortality during the pandemic in Chennai, Tamil Nadu, using data on all-cause mortality within the district., Methods: For this observational study, we analysed comprehensive death registrations in Chennai, from Jan 1, 2016, to June 30, 2021. We estimated expected mortality without the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic by fitting models to observed mortality time series during the pre-pandemic period, with stratification by age and sex. Additionally, we considered three periods of interest: the first 4 weeks of India's first lockdown (March 24 to April 20, 2020), the 4-month period including the first wave of the pandemic in Chennai (May 1 to Aug 31, 2020), and the 4-month period including the second wave of the pandemic in Chennai (March 1 to June 30, 2021). We computed the difference between observed and expected mortality from March 1, 2020, to June 30, 2021, and compared pandemic-associated mortality across socioeconomically distinct communities (measured with use of 2011 census of India data) with regression analyses., Findings: Between March 1, 2020, and June 30, 2021, 87 870 deaths were registered in areas of Chennai district represented by the 2011 census, exceeding expected deaths by 25 990 (95% uncertainty interval 25 640-26 360) or 5·18 (5·11-5·25) excess deaths per 1000 people. Stratified by age, excess deaths numbered 21·02 (20·54-21·49) excess deaths per 1000 people for individuals aged 60-69 years, 39·74 (38·73-40·69) for those aged 70-79 years, and 96·90 (93·35-100·16) for those aged 80 years or older. Neighbourhoods with lower socioeconomic status had 0·7% to 2·8% increases in pandemic-associated mortality per 1 SD increase in each measure of community disadvantage, due largely to a disproportionate increase in mortality within these neighbourhoods during the second wave. Conversely, differences in excess mortality across communities were not clearly associated with socioeconomic status measures during the first wave. For each increase by 1 SD in measures of community disadvantage, neighbourhoods had 3·6% to 8·6% lower pandemic-associated mortality during the first 4 weeks of India's country-wide lockdown, before widespread SARS-CoV-2 circulation was underway in Chennai. The greatest reductions in mortality during this early lockdown period were observed among men aged 20-29 years, with 58% (54-62) fewer deaths than expected from pre-pandemic trends., Interpretation: Mortality in Chennai increased substantially but heterogeneously during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the greatest burden concentrated in disadvantaged communities. Reported COVID-19 deaths greatly underestimated pandemic-associated mortality., Funding: National Institute of General Medical Sciences, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Science Foundation., Translation: For the Hindi translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

In the early stages of a pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that encourage physical distancing and reduce contact can decrease and delay disease transmission. Although NPIs have been implemented globally during the COVID-19 pandemic, their intensity and timing have varied widely. This paper analyzed the country-level determinants and effects of NPIs during the early stages of the pandemic (January 1st to April 29th, 2020). We examined countries that had implemented NPIs within 30 or 45 days since first case detection, as well as countries in which 30 or 45 days had passed since first case detection. The health and socioeconomic factors associated with delay in implementation of three NPIs-national school closure, national lockdown, and global travel ban-were analyzed using fractional logit and probit models, and beta regression models. The probability of implementation of national school closure, national lockdown, and strict national lockdown by a country was analyzed using a probit model. The effects of these three interventions on mobility changes were analyzed with propensity score matching methods using Google's social mobility reports. Countries with larger populations and better health preparedness measures had greater delays in implementation. Countries with greater population density, higher income, more democratic political systems, and later arrival of first cases were more likely to implement NPIs within 30 or 45 days of first case detection. Implementation of lockdowns significantly reduced physical mobility. Mobility was further reduced when lockdowns were enforced with curfews or fines, or when they were more strictly defined. National school closures did not significantly change mobility., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Antibiotic use in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) patients during the COVID-19 pandemic has exceeded the incidence of bacterial coinfections and secondary infections, suggesting inappropriate and excessive prescribing. Even in settings with established antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) programmes, there were weaknesses exposed regarding appropriate antibiotic use in the context of the pandemic. Moreover, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) surveillance and AMS have been deprioritised with diversion of health system resources to the pandemic response. This experience highlights deficiencies in AMR containment and mitigation strategies that require urgent attention from clinical and scientific communities. These include the need to implement diagnostic stewardship to assess the global incidence of coinfections and secondary infections in COVID-19 patients, including those by multidrug-resistant pathogens, to identify patients most likely to benefit from antibiotic treatment and identify when antibiotics can be safely withheld, de-escalated or discontinued. Long-term global surveillance of clinical and societal antibiotic use and resistance trends is required to prepare for subsequent changes in AMR epidemiology, while ensuring uninterrupted supply chains and preventing drug shortages and stock outs. These interventions present implementation challenges in resource-constrained settings, making a case for implementation research on AMR. Knowledge and support for these practices will come from internationally coordinated, targeted research on AMR, supporting the preparation for future challenges from emerging AMR in the context of the current COVID-19 pandemic or future pandemics., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.)

Background: Early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, there was a concern over possible increase in antibiotic use due to coinfections among COVID-19 patients in the community. Here, we evaluate the changes in nationwide use of broad-spectrum antibiotics during the COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea., Methods: We obtained national reimbursement data on the prescription of antibiotics, including penicillin with β-lactamase inhibitors, cephalosporins, fluoroquinolones, and macrolides. We examined the number of antibiotic prescriptions compared with the previous 3 years in the same period from August to July. To quantify the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on antibiotic use, we developed a regression model adjusting for changes of viral acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs), which are an important factor driving antibiotic use., Results: During the COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea, the broad-spectrum antibiotic use dropped by 15%-55% compared to the previous 3 years. Overall reduction in antibiotic use adjusting for ARTIs was estimated to be 14%-30%, with a larger impact in children., Conclusions: Our study found that broad-spectrum antibiotic use was substantially reduced during the COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea. This reduction can be in part due to reduced ARTIs as a result of stringent public health interventions including social distancing measures., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Antimicrobial resistance must be recognised as a global societal priority - even in the face of the worldwide challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 has illustrated the vulnerability of our healthcare systems in co-managing multiple infectious disease threats as resources for monitoring and detecting, and conducting research on antimicrobial resistance have been compromised during the pandemic. The increased awareness of the importance of infectious diseases, clinical microbiology and infection control and lessons learnt during the COVID-19 pandemic should be exploited to ensure that emergence of future infectious disease threats, including those related to AMR, are minimised. Harnessing the public understanding of the relevance of infectious diseases towards the long-term pandemic of AMR could have major implications for promoting good practices about the control of AMR transmission., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: As of 13 January 2021, there have been 3 113 963 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 and 74 619 deaths across the African continent. Despite relatively lower numbers of cases initially, many African countries are now experiencing an exponential increase in case numbers. Estimates of the progression of disease and potential impact of different interventions are needed to inform policymaking decisions. Herein, we model the possible trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 in 52 African countries under different intervention scenarios., Design: We developed a compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to estimate the COVID-19 case burden for all African countries while considering four scenarios: no intervention, moderate lockdown, hard lockdown and hard lockdown with continued restrictions once lockdown is lifted. We further analysed the potential impact of COVID-19 on vulnerable populations affected by HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB)., Results: In the absence of an intervention, the most populous countries had the highest peaks in active projected number of infections with Nigeria having an estimated 645 081 severe infections. The scenario with a hard lockdown and continued post-lockdown interventions to reduce transmission was the most efficacious strategy for delaying the time to the peak and reducing the number of cases. In South Africa, projected peak severe infections increase from 162 977 to 2 03 261, when vulnerable populations with HIV/AIDS and TB are included in the analysis., Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly spreading across the African continent. Estimates of the potential impact of interventions and burden of disease are essential for policymakers to make evidence-based decisions on the distribution of limited resources and to balance the economic costs of interventions with the potential for saving lives., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Despite vast improvements in global vaccination coverage during the last decade, there is a growing trend in vaccine hesitancy and/or refusal globally. This has implications for the acceptance and coverage of a potential vaccine against COVID-19. In the United States, the number of children exempt from vaccination for "philosophical belief-based" non-medical reasons increased in 12 of the 18 states that allowed this policy from 2009 to 2017 (1). Meanwhile, the overuse and misuse of antibiotics, especially in young children, have led to increasing rates of drug resistance that threaten our ability to treat infectious diseases. Vaccine hesitancy and antibiotic overuse exist side-by-side in the same population of young children, and it is unclear why one modality (antibiotics) is universally seen as safe and effective, while the other (vaccines) is seen as potentially hazardous by some. In this review, we consider the drivers shaping the use of vaccines and antibiotics in the context of three factors: individual incentives, risk perceptions, and social norms and group dynamics. We illustrate how these factors contribute to the societal and individual costs of vaccine underuse and antimicrobial overuse. Ultimately, we seek to understand these factors that are at the nexus of infectious disease epidemiology and social science to inform policy-making., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2020 Wagner, Prentice, Saad-Roy, Yang, Grenfell, Levin and Laxminarayan.)