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Background: Many coronary heart disease (CHD) events occur in individuals classified as intermediate risk by commonly used assessment tools. Over half the individuals presenting with a severe cardiac event, such as myocardial infarction (MI), have at most one risk factor as included in the widely used Framingham risk assessment. Individuals classified as intermediate risk, who are actually at high risk, may not receive guideline recommended treatments. A clinically useful method for accurately predicting 5-year CHD risk among intermediate risk patients remains an unmet medical need., Objective: This study sought to develop a CHD Risk Assessment (CHDRA) model that improves 5-year risk stratification among intermediate risk individuals., Methods: Assay panels for biomarkers associated with atherosclerosis biology (inflammation, angiogenesis, apoptosis, chemotaxis, etc.) were optimized for measuring baseline serum samples from 1084 initially CHD-free Marshfield Clinic Personalized Medicine Research Project (PMRP) individuals. A multivariable Cox regression model was fit using the most powerful risk predictors within the clinical and protein variables identified by repeated cross-validation. The resulting CHDRA algorithm was validated in a Multiple-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) case-cohort sample., Results: A CHDRA algorithm of age, sex, diabetes, and family history of MI, combined with serum levels of seven biomarkers (CTACK, Eotaxin, Fas Ligand, HGF, IL-16, MCP-3, and sFas) yielded a clinical net reclassification index of 42.7% (p < 0.001) for MESA patients with a recalibrated Framingham 5-year intermediate risk level. Across all patients, the model predicted acute coronary events (hazard ratio = 2.17, p < 0.001), and remained an independent predictor after Framingham risk factor adjustments., Limitations: These include the slightly different event definition with the MESA samples and inability to include PMRP fatal CHD events., Conclusions: A novel risk score of serum protein levels plus clinical risk factors, developed and validated in independent cohorts, demonstrated clinical utility for assessing the true risk of CHD events in intermediate risk patients. Improved accuracy in cardiovascular risk classification could lead to improved preventive care and fewer deaths.

Context: Plasma fibrinogen levels may be associated with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke., Objective: To assess the relationships of fibrinogen levels with risk of major vascular and with risk of nonvascular outcomes based on individual participant data., Data Sources: Relevant studies were identified by computer-assisted searches, hand searches of reference lists, and personal communication with relevant investigators., Study Selection: All identified prospective studies were included with information available on baseline fibrinogen levels and details of subsequent major vascular morbidity and/or cause-specific mortality during at least 1 year of follow-up. Studies were excluded if they recruited participants on the basis of having had a previous history of cardiovascular disease; participants with known preexisting CHD or stroke were excluded., Data Extraction: Individual records were provided on each of 154,211 participants in 31 prospective studies. During 1.38 million person-years of follow-up, there were 6944 first nonfatal myocardial infarctions or stroke events and 13,210 deaths. Cause-specific mortality was generally available. Analyses involved proportional hazards modeling with adjustment for confounding by known cardiovascular risk factors and for regression dilution bias., Data Synthesis: Within each age group considered (40-59, 60-69, and > or =70 years), there was an approximately log-linear association with usual fibrinogen level for the risk of any CHD, any stroke, other vascular (eg, non-CHD, nonstroke) mortality, and nonvascular mortality. There was no evidence of a threshold within the range of usual fibrinogen level studied at any age. The age- and sex- adjusted hazard ratio per 1-g/L increase in usual fibrinogen level for CHD was 2.42 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.24-2.60); stroke, 2.06 (95% CI, 1.83-2.33); other vascular mortality, 2.76 (95% CI, 2.28-3.35); and nonvascular mortality, 2.03 (95% CI, 1.90-2.18). The hazard ratios for CHD and stroke were reduced to about 1.8 after further adjustment for measured values of several established vascular risk factors. In a subset of 7011 participants with available C-reactive protein values, the findings for CHD were essentially unchanged following additional adjustment for C-reactive protein. The associations of fibrinogen level with CHD or stroke did not differ substantially according to sex, smoking, blood pressure, blood lipid levels, or several features of study design., Conclusions: In this large individual participant meta-analysis, moderately strong associations were found between usual plasma fibrinogen level and the risks of CHD, stroke, other vascular mortality, and nonvascular mortality in a wide range of circumstances in healthy middle-aged adults. Assessment of any causal relevance of elevated fibrinogen levels to disease requires additional research.

Although excess adiposity appears to increase the risk of coronary heart disease in the general population, its importance in patients with established coronary disease is less defined. We evaluated a population-based inception cohort of survivors to hospital discharge following first acute myocardial infarction (AMI) (n = 2,541) to assess the association between body mass index (BMI) and the risk of recurrent coronary events and to explore the mechanisms for this relation. Using Cox proportional-hazards regression, we assessed the risk of recurrent coronary events associated with levels of adiposity as defined by BMI and then investigated potential mechanisms through which adiposity conferred risk by examining how adjustment for diabetes mellitus, systemic hypertension, and dyslipidemia affected the association. Forty-one percent of the cohort were overweight (BMI 25 to 29.9), and 27.8% were obese (BMI > or =30). After adjustment for other risk factors, the risk of recurrent coronary events (n = 418) increased as BMI increased, especially among those who were obese. Using a BMI of 16 to 24.9 as the reference group, for mildly overweight patients (BMI 25 to 27.4), the relative risk (RR) was 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.70 to 1.24); it was 1.16 for more severe overweight patients (BMI 27.5 to 29.9; 95% CI 0.87 to 1.55). For patients with class I obesity (BMI 30 to 34.9), the RR was 1.49 (95% CI 1.12 to 1.98), and for class II to III obesity (BMI > or =35), the RR was 1.80 (95% CI 1.30 to 2.48). We estimated that clinical measurements of diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia explained approximately 43% of this risk. Thus, excess adiposity as measured by BMI was associated with an increased risk of recurrent coronary events following AMI, particularly among those who were obese.

Background: Whether serological evidence of prior infection with Chlamydia pneumoniae, herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1), and cytomegalovirus (CMV) is associated with myocardial infarction (MI) and coronary heart disease (CHD) death remains a source of controversy., Methods and Results: We conducted a nested case-control study among participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a cohort study of persons aged >/=65 years. Cases experienced an incident MI and CHD death (n=213). Control subjects were matched to cases by age, sex, clinic, year of enrollment, and month of blood draw (n=405). Serum was analyzed for IgG antibodies to C pneumoniae, HSV-1, and CMV. After adjustment for other risk factors, the risk of MI and CHD death was associated with the presence of IgG antibodies to HSV-1 (odds ratio [OR] 2.0, 95% CI 1.1 to 3.6) but was not associated with the presence of IgG antibodies to either C pneumoniae (OR 1.1, 95% CI 0.7 to 1.8) or CMV (OR 1.2, 95% CI 0.7 to 1.9). Although there was little association with low to moderate C pneumoniae antibody titers (

Plasmin-alpha2-antiplasmin complex (PAP) marks plasmin generation and fibrinolytic balance. We recently observed that elevated levels of PAP predict acute myocardial infarction in the elderly, yet little is known about the correlates of PAP. We measured PAP in 800 elderly subjects who were free of clinical cardiovascular disease in 2 cohort studies: the Cardiovascular Health Study and the Honolulu Heart Program. Median PAP levels did not differ between the Cardiovascular Health Study (6.05+/-1.46 nmol/L) and the Honolulu Heart Program (6.11+/-1.44 nmol/L), and correlates of PAP were similar in both cohorts. In CHS, PAP levels increased with age (r=0. 30), procoagulant factors (eg, factor VIIc, r=0.15), thrombin activity (prothrombin fragment F1+2, r=0.29), and inflammation-sensitive proteins (eg, fibrinogen, r=0.44; factor VIIIc, r=0.37). PAP was associated with increased atherosclerosis as measured by the ankle-arm index (AAI) (P for trend,

The controversy over the efficacy and safety of calcium antagonists is over 2 years old. Since millions of patients worldwide are currently using calcium antagonists for the treatment of high blood pressure and angina, a systematic review of their potential risks and benefits is much needed. In response to this need, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the International Society of Hypertension (ISH) recently convened an ad-hoc subcommittee to review the available evidence (J Hypertens 1997, 15:105-115). Importantly, the WHO-ISH statement does take a strong stand in favor of large long-term trials that compare antihypertensive agents, and we all agree that these comparative trials are urgently needed. However, the WHO-ISH statement is marred in part by errors of omission, by the selective use of evidence and epidemiologic principles, and by a narrow application of the viewpoint of those who believe that evidence can come only from the results of megatrials. As a result, practicing clinicians will find more useful information in existing hypertension and postmyocardial infarction guidelines (Arch Intern Med 1993, 153:154-183 and JAm Coll Cardiol 1996, 28:1328-1428).

Background: This study aimed to describe the incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) among older adults during 3 years of follow-up., Methods and Results: In this cohort study, 5201 adults > or = 65 years old were examined annually on four occasions between June 1989 and May 1993. At baseline, participants answered questionnaires and underwent a detailed examination that included carotid ultrasound, pulmonary function tests, ECG, and echocardiography. Subjects with a pacemaker or AF at baseline (n=357) were excluded. New cases of AF were identified from three sources: (1) annual self-reports, (2) annual ECGs, and (3) hospital discharge diagnoses. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to assess baseline risk factors as predictors of incident AF. Among 4844 participants, 304 developed a first episode of AF during an average follow-up of 3.28 years, for an incidence of 19.2 per 1000 person-years. The onset was strongly associated with age, male sex, and the presence of clinical cardiovascular disease. For men 65 to 74 and 75 to 84 years old, the incidences were 17.6 and 42.7, respectively, and for women, 10.1 and 21.6 events per 1000 person-years. In stepwise models, the use of diuretics, a history of valvular heart disease, coronary disease, advancing age, higher levels of systolic blood pressure, height, glucose, and left atrial size were all associated with an increased risk of AF. The use of beta-blockers and high levels of alcohol use, cholesterol, and forced expiratory volume in 1 second were associated with a reduced risk of AF., Conclusions: The incidence of AF in older adults may be higher than estimated by previous population studies. Left atrial size appears to be an important risk factor, and the control of blood pressure and glucose may be important in preventing the development of AF.

Background: The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of the dose of nifedipine, a dihydropyridine calcium antagonist, on the increased risk of mortality seen in the randomized secondary-prevention trials and to review the mechanisms by which this adverse effect might occur., Methods and Results: We restricted the dose-response meta-analysis to the 16 randomized secondary-prevention trials of nifedipine for which mortality data were available. Recent trials of any calcium antagonist and formulation were also reviewed for information about the possible mechanisms of action that might increase mortality. Overall, the use of nifedipine was associated with a significant adverse effect on total mortality (risk ratio, 1.16, with a 95% CI of 1.01 to 1.33). This summary estimate fails to draw attention to an important dose-response relationship. For daily doses of 30 to 50, 60, and 80 mg, the risk ratios for total mortality were 1.06 (95% CI, 0.89 to 1.27), 1.18 (95% CI, 0.93 to 1.50), and 2.83 (95% CI, 1.35 to 5.93), respectively. In a formal test of dose response, the high doses of nifedipine were significantly associated with increased mortality (P = .01). While the mechanism of this adverse effect is not known, there are several plausible explanations, including the established proischemic effect, negative inotropic effects, marked hypotension, recently reported prohemorrhagic effects attributed to antiplatelet and vasodilatory actions of calcium antagonists, and possibly proarrhythmic effects., Conclusions: In patients with coronary disease, the use of short-acting nifedipine in moderate to high doses causes an increase in total mortality. Other calcium antagonists may have similar adverse effects, in particular those of the dihydropyridine type. Long-term safety data are lacking for most calcium antagonists.

The objective of this article is to describe the methods of assessing cardiovascular conditions among older adults recruited to the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), a cohort study of risk factors for coronary disease and stroke. Medicare eligibility lists from four US communities were used to obtain a representative sample of 5201 community-dwelling elderly, who answered standardized questionnaires and underwent an extensive clinic examination at baseline. For each cardiovascular condition, self-reports were confirmed by components of the baseline examination or, if necessary, by a validation protocol that included either the review of medical records or surveys of treating physicians. Potential underreporting of a condition was detected either by the review of medical records at baseline for other self-reported conditions or, during prospective follow-up, by the investigation of potential incident events. For myocardial infarction, 75.5% of the self-reports in men and 60.6% in women were confirmed. Self-reported congestive heart failure was confirmed in 73.3% of men and 76.6% of women; stroke, in 59.6% of men and 53.8% of women; and transient ischemic attack, in 41.5% of men and 37.0% of women. Underreporting was also common. During prospective follow-up of an average of about 3 years per person, approximately 50% of men and 38% of women were hospitalized or investigated for at least one potential incident event; for each cardiovascular condition, about 1 to 4% of those investigated during prospective follow-up were found to have had the cardiovascular condition prior to entry into the cohort.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

While previous prospective multicenter studies have conducted cardiovascular disease surveillance, few have detailed the techniques relating to the ascertainment of and data collection for events. The Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) is a population-based study of coronary heart disease and stroke in older adults. This article summarizes the CHS events protocol and describes the methods of surveillance and ascertainment of hospitalized and nonhospitalized events, the use of medical records and other support documents, organizational issues at the field center level, and the classification of events through an adjudication process. We present data on incidence and mortality, the classification of adjudicated events, and the agreement between classification by the Events Subcommittee and the medical records diagnostic codes. The CHS techniques are a successful model for complete ascertainment, investigation, and documentation of events in an older cohort.

We conducted a population-based, case-control study of risk factors for first events of coronary heart disease in patients with high blood pressure. All subjects had hypertension treated with medication. The 248 cases presented with new coronary heart disease from 1982 through 1984, and the 737 controls were a probability sample of health maintenance organization patients free of coronary heart disease. The health maintenance organization's computerized pharmacy database identified recent stoppers--patients who did not fill their prescriptions regularly enough to be at least 80% compliant. After adjustment for potential confounding factors, subjects who had recently stopped using beta-blockers had a transient fourfold increase in the relative risk of coronary heart disease (relative risk, 4.5; 95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 18.5). The association was specific to beta-blockers but not diuretics. A withdrawal syndrome immediately following the cessation of beta-blocker use may be an acute precipitant of angina and myocardial infarction in hypertensive patients who have no prior history of coronary heart disease.

We conducted a population-based, case-control study to determine whether beta-blockers, used for the treatment of hypertension, prevent first events of coronary heart disease. Cases were patients who had high blood pressure treated with medicines and who presented in 1982 to 1984 with angina or fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Controls were a probability sample of health maintenance organization patients with pharmacologically treated hypertension and free of coronary heart disease. Blinded to case-control status, we reviewed the medical records of the 248 cases and 737 controls. The health maintenance organization's computerized pharmacy database was used to ascertain the use of beta-blockers. Fewer cases than controls were taking beta-blockers. This difference was confined to those with nonfatal infarctions. After adjustment for confounding, the estimated relative risk was 0.62 (95% confidence interval, 0.39 to 0.99). Higher doses of beta-blockers conferred greater protection. We conclude that beta-blockers may prevent first events of nonfatal myocardial infarction in patients with high blood pressure.