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Climate change has the potential to affect climate parameters like rainfall and temperature which lead to a change in the irrigation water requirement of the irrigation system. As irrigation water requirement is highly dependent on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, climate change impact studies are necessary. Therefore, this study aims to assess the impact of climate change on the irrigation water requirement of the Shumbrite irrigation project. For this study, climate variables of precipitation and temperature were generated from CORDEX-Africa simulations downscaled from MPI Global Circulation Model (GCM) under three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The climate data covers from 1981 to 2005 for the baseline period and 2021–2045 for the future period for all scenarios. Future precipitation shows a decrease for all scenarios with a maximum decrease under RCP2.6 (4.2%) and temperature show an increase in the future as compared to the baseline period. The reference evapotranspiration and Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR) were calculated by using CROPWAT 8.0 software. Results showed that the mean annual reference evapotranspiration is expected to increase in the future by 2.7%, 2.6%, and 3.3% for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 respectively as compared to the baseline period. Mean annual irrigation water requirement shows an increase of 2.58%, 0.74%, and 8.4% for the future under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 respectively. The Crop Water Requirement (CWR) also increases for the future period under all RCP scenarios, with maximum CWR for tomato, potato, and pepper crops. To ensure the sustainability of the project, crops with high irrigation water requirements should be replaced by other crops with low water requirements.

Climate change has the potential to reduce the water resource availability and hence the amount of storage in reservoirs. In this study, we assessed the impact of climate change on the performance of the Shumbrite reservoir using outputs from the CORDEX-Africa project, MPI Global Circulation Model (GCM) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The trend analysis of future precipitation shows a decrease in the range of 0.57%–4.2%, with a maximum decrease under RCP2.6, and temperature (both maximum and minimum) shows an increasing trend as compared to the baseline period. The HBV model simulated future mean annual flow volume shows a decrease (ranges 0.06% to 1.64%) for RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 and a significant increase of 5.03% for RCP8.5 compared to the baseline period. Mean annual irrigation water demand from CROPWAT shows an increase (0.74% to 8.4%) for all RCPs compared to the baseline period. The time-based reliability for the Shumbrite reservoir has an average value above 80%. The resilience values are below 50% for all RCPs and hence the reservoir will take an extended period to recover from an inability to achieve the target demand volume. The dimensionless vulnerability shows a value below 50% which indicates that the reservoir has no insufficient flow to meet the demand. Generally, the reservoir can be used sustainably with operation rule curves. Generally, this study adds a contribution to the evaluation of small-scale reservoirs under a changing climate and the preparation of guide curves for the respective release.

Temperature and precipitation trend fluctuations influence the components of the hydrological cycle and the availability of water supplies and result shift in the balance of lake water (lake level). Lake Tana is one of the water resources potential providing many services and threatened by human-induced and natural factors in Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. So assessing the impacts of climate change on this water resource is a primary activity for water resource managers, researchers, and stakeholders to understand its potential for the water resource. This study was therefore conducted to examine the implications of the influence of climate change on the water balance of Lake Tana (water level) using potential simulated climate production downscaled by a regional CORDEX climate model powered by GCM-RCM ensembles under the Eastern Africa domain CIMP5 archive (AFR44) and RCP scenarios (RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) for future climate data prediction. Quantile mapping has been used to correct temperature biases, and power transformation was applied for rainfall correction. The performance of the HBV model was evaluated through calibration and validation using objective functions (relative volume error (RVE), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and provide RVE of 3.7%, -1.27%, 1.05%, -0.72%, 8.9% and -0.68 during calibration and RVE of -1.5%, 6.93%, -3.04%,8.796%, -5.89% and 8.5% during validation for Gumara, Kiltie, Koga, Gilgel Abay, Megech and Rib respectively. While the model provided NS of 0.79, 0.63, 0.72, 0.803, 0.68 and 0.797 during calibration and NSE of 0.8, 0.64, 0.7, 0.82, 0.801 and 0.82 during validation for Gumara, Kiltie, Koga, Gilgel Abay, Megech, and Rib respectively. The simulated Lake level showed adequate agreement to the observed with NS and RVE of 0.7 and 6.44% respectively. The result showed that lake evaporation and rainfall increase for all future scenarios. The ungauged surface inflow is also increased shortly scenarios while gauged surface inflow increased for RCP4.5 (the 2070s) and RCP8.5 (2040s) and decreased for RCP4.5 (2040s) and RCP8.5 (2070s). The decrease in gauged surface water inflow is due to a decrease in inflow for Gilgel Abay, Koga and Gumara gauged catchments. The results showed that the Lake storage will decrease in all future scenarios of all-time horizons. As the study's revealed climate model minimized the level of uncertainty, especially with the use of more RCMs than GCMs, future studies should therefore use more than one regional climate model and also use fine resolution data like (CMIP 6). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]