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Introduction: Predictive models based on environmental proxy data are being used to predict biodiversity on large and even global scales. Yet, some of the underlying assumptions about the relationship between proxy variables and predictions require investigations and testing the consequences of using model alternatives, data sources, variables choices, and scales, extent, and overlap among the predictions. Mozambican coral reefs provide a good case study to test these assumptions given the paucity of field data, its long coastline, and transitions from tropical to temperate environments. Methods: Three modelling formulations and 5 specific models were made using satellite and shipboard measurements and extensive fish and corals field data to test their performance in predicting numbers of fish species and coral taxa from field data. Model predictions were mapped for the 1180 ~6.25 km[sup 2] Mozambican coral reef cells. Predictions were made and mapped 1) based on ~1000 field sites in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) faunal province model, 2) using environmental variable selected in the WIO model (WIOMOD) but trained only with Mozambican field data (<113 sites), and 3) using only Mozambican environmental and field data and standard variable redundancy and selection procedures. Results and discussion: Training and testing cross validation of models indicated modest predictive ability (R[sup 2]~0.42-0.56%) and reasonable transferability. Consequently, there was unexplained variation likely due to small-scale environmental variability finer than the mapped cell scale. Differences between model predictions were caused by different variable rankings and response relationship. For example, the Mozambique-only model predicted more fish but fewer coral taxa, a larger role of water quality and sediments, habitats, and temperature variation, and a lesser role of human influence than the WIOMOD. Therefore, differences between models indicate that large scale models (i.e. provincial or global) can contribute to understanding gross patterns but miss important local environmental and human drivers in transitional environments. Nevertheless, 79% of the fish and 88% of coral taxa cell-level predictions of taxonomic diversity had standardized coefficients of variations of <10%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent policy recommendations have highlighted the nutritional benefits of fisheries that capture small finfish species. Small fish, particularly those that feed in the pelagic zone, tend to be more nutrient dense than larger species, with increased concentrations of calcium, zinc, and omega-3 fatty acids. However, capturing fish below some recommended size limit (i.e., length at first maturity = L mat) in coral reefs is frequently considered to be unsustainable and associated with reduced yields and losses of ecosystem functions. To evaluate the potential effects of fish body size, we analyzed nutrient concentrations of 424 demersal and pelagic finfish species reported from Western Indian Ocean artisanal fisheries. We found that length and food source are associated with only small differences in nutrient density in the artisanal catches of this region (≤7% of a child's daily requirement in most cases). We also analyzed 20 years of catch monitoring data from Kenya, where many of the common species have L mat ∼20–25 cm, to test the potential benefits and tradeoffs of capturing small fishes. Small capture sizes were associated with low yields and sexually immature catches with a mean length of 15 cm resulting in 38% lower catch per unit effort, 37% lower nutrient yield, and a 22% lower maturity index compared to a mean body length of 30 cm. Catches of undersized fish were not associated with substantial increases or decreases in nutrient content relative to human nutritional requirements. Thus, coral reef artisanal fisheries should target moderate to large fishes (>20 cm) to maximize overall yield, nutrient yield, and sustainability. [Display omitted] • On coral reefs, small fishes are not always more nutritious than large ones. • Small capture sizes are not associated with increased nutrient density. • Large capture sizes are associated with increased yields and nutrient production. • Managers should balance quantity, quality, and sustainability of harvest strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many tropical reef fisheries are underperforming relative to maximum sustained yields despite their importance for the economies and food security of natural resource dependent people. Assessments of fisheries in tropical reefs have been hampered by the logistic difficulty and costs of making empirical estimates of sustainable yields in multi-species fisheries. To overcome this limitation, we used empirical fish biomass recovery data in high-compliance closures to create a production curve estimate that established biomass and yields at maximum sustained yield (B msy). A multivariate machine learning model using environmental and human influence proxies made biomass and yield estimates in 10,815 ∼6.25 km2 Indian Ocean cells. Subsequent analyses determined the national over- and under-fishing status. Identified proxies of travel time from markets, depth, and fisheries management were the main drivers of biomass and subsequent status. The East African countries of Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique had 18,500 km2 of reef and the lowest regional estimated biomass - losing 17,600 tons of commercial target fish per year. Therefore, the estimated loss is between US$ 50–150 million per year depending on the worth in the fisheries trade's value chain The more populated islands of Reunion, Mauritius, Mayotte, and Comoros have smaller areas (5000 km2) and losing 3000 tons/year, and >US$ 9 million per year. Madagascar has many reefs (13,700 km2) and larger variation in yields with an estimated loss of ∼6000 tons/y. Increased restrictions could greatly increase the value of Indian Ocean fisheries by promoting the recovery of target biomass and recovering lost income. • A stock biomass and yield model created for 10,815 ∼6.25 km2 reef cells of the Indian Ocean. • Seven environmental variables were highly predictive of fish stock biomass. • Depth, travel time, fisheries restrictions, and governance were key manageable variables. • 55% of the 70,000 km2 of reef were losing 27,000 tons/year due to overfishing. • Estimated lost annual income was > 80–270 million US$ depending on value chain position. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Government-managed marine protected areas (MPAs) can restore small fish stocks, but have been heavily criticized for excluding resource users and creating conflicts. A promising but less studied alternative are community-managed MPAs, where resource users are more involved in MPA design, implementation and enforcement. Here we evaluated effects of government- and community-managed MPAs on the density, size and biomass of seagrass- and coral reef-associated fish, using field surveys in Kenyan coastal lagoons. We also assessed protection effects on the potential monetary value of fish; a variable that increases non-linearly with fish body mass and is particularly important from a fishery perspective. We found that two recently established community MPAs (< 1 km2 in size, ≤ 5 years of protection) harbored larger fish and greater total fish biomass than two fished (open access) areas, in both seagrass beds and coral reefs. As expected, protection effects were considerably stronger in the older and larger government MPAs. Importantly, across management and habitat types, the protection effect on the potential monetary value of the fish was much stronger than the effects on fish biomass and size (6.7 vs. 2.6 and 1.3 times higher value in community MPAs than in fished areas, respectively). This strong effect on potential value was partly explained by presence of larger (and therefore more valuable) individual fish, and partly by higher densities of high-value taxa (e.g. rabbitfish). In summary, we show that i) small and recently established community-managed MPAs can, just like larger and older government-managed MPAs, play an important role for local conservation of high-value fish, and that ii) these effects are equally strong in coral reefs as in seagrass beds; an important habitat too rarely included in formal management. Consequently, community-managed MPAs could benefit both coral reef and seagrass ecosystems and provide spillover of valuable fish to nearby fisheries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decadal populations changes in four coral taxa and their patterns of association with algal symbionts (Symbiodinium spp. - 10 years of sampling) were examined on Kenyan back reefs over a period of climatic disturbances (1991-2009). Some of the better surviving taxa, Pavona and Pocillopora, were associated with variable temperature regimes and >50% of sampled colonies in these taxa had some of the more thermally tolerant Symbiodinium in clade D. In contrast, only around 35% of Acropora and no branching forms of Porites contained detectable levels of clade D, and both taxa experienced high levels of thermally-induced mortality and poor recovery. Overall, however the relationship between Symbiodinium clade and population-level success of coral hosts was not strong, and differential success inside and outside fisheries closures suggests that other factors, such as predation on corals, were also influential. Consequently, while Symbiodinium in clade D may contribute to the success of coral hosts across thermal disturbances, multiple ecological factors and additional biological traits also influence their long-term survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coral reefs are biodiverse ecosystems structured by abiotic and biotic factors operating across many spatial scales. Regional-scale interactions between climate change, biogeography and fisheries management remain poorly understood. Here, we evaluated large-scale patterns of coral communities in the western Indian Ocean after a major coral bleaching event in 1998. We surveyed 291 coral reef sites in 11 countries and over 30° of latitude between 2004 and 2011 to evaluate variations in coral communities post 1998 across gradients in latitude, mainland-island geography and fisheries management. We used linear mixed-effect hierarchical models to assess total coral cover, the abundance of four major coral families (acroporids, faviids, pocilloporids and poritiids), coral genus richness and diversity, and the bleaching susceptibility of the coral communities. We found strong latitudinal and geographic gradients in coral community structure and composition that supports the presence of a high coral cover and diversity area that harbours temperature-sensitive taxa in the northern Mozambique Channel between Tanzania, northern Mozambique and northern Madagascar. Coral communities in the more northern latitudes of Kenya, Seychelles and the Maldives were generally composed of fewer bleaching-tolerant coral taxa and with reduced richness and diversity. There was also evidence for continued declines in the abundance of temperature-sensitive taxa and community change after 2004. While there are limitations of our regional dataset in terms of spatial and temporal replication, these patterns suggest that large-scale interactions between biogeographic factors and strong temperature anomalies influence coral communities while smaller-scale factors, such as the effect of fisheries closures, were weak. The northern Mozambique Channel, while not immune to temperature disturbances, shows continued signs of resistance to climate disturbances and remains a priority for future regional conservation and management actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is reshaping biological communities against a background of existing human pressure. Evaluating the impacts of multiple stressors on community dynamics can be particularly challenging in species-rich ecosystems, such as coral reefs. Here, we investigate whether life-history strategies and cotolerance to different stressors can predict community responses to fishing and temperature-driven bleaching using a 20-year time series of coral assemblages in Kenya. We found that the initial life-history composition of coral taxa largely determined the impacts of bleaching and coral loss. Prior to the 1998 bleaching event, coral assemblages within no-take marine reserves were composed of three distinct life histories - competitive, stress-tolerant and weedy- and exhibited strong declines following bleaching with limited subsequent recovery. In contrast, fished reefs had lower coral cover, fewer genera and were composed of stress-tolerant and weedy corals that were less affected by bleaching over the long term. Despite these general patterns, we found limited evidence for cotolerance as coral genera and life histories were variable in their sensitivities to fishing and bleaching. Overall, fishing and bleaching have reduced coral diversity and led to altered coral communities of 'survivor' species with stress-tolerant and weedy life histories. Our findings are consistent with expectations that climate change interacting with existing human pressure will result in the loss of coral diversity and critical reef habitat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Classifying the biological traits of organisms can test conceptual frameworks of life-history strategies and allow for predictions of how different species may respond to environmental disturbances. We apply a trait-based classification approach to a complex and threatened group of species, scleractinian corals. Using hierarchical clustering and random forests analyses, we identify up to four life-history strategies that appear globally consistent across 143 species of reef corals: competitive, weedy, stress-tolerant and generalist taxa, which are primarily separated by colony morphology, growth rate and reproductive mode. Documented shifts towards stress-tolerant, generalist and weedy species in coral reef communities are consistent with the expected responses of these life-history strategies. Our quantitative trait-based approach to classifying life-history strategies is objective, applicable to any taxa and a powerful tool that can be used to evaluate theories of community ecology and predict the impact of environmental and anthropogenic stressors on species assemblages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The high-latitude coral communities of southern Africa suffered minimal impacts during past mass bleaching events. Recent reports indicate an increase in bleaching frequency during the last decade, yet the actual levels of thermal stress and contributing factors in these bleaching events, and the degree of acclimatisation or adaptation on these reefs are poorly understood. During the 2005 warm-water anomaly in the southern Indian Ocean we conducted bleaching surveys and collected samples for genotyping of the algal symbiont communities at 21 sites in southern Mozambique and South Africa. Coral bleaching reached unprecedented levels and was negatively correlated with both latitude and water depths. Stylophora pistillata and Montipora were the most susceptible taxa, whereas three common branching corals had significantly different bleaching responses ( Stylophora > Acropora > Pocillopora). Temperature records indicated that localised strong upwelling events coupled with persistent above-average seawater temperatures may result in accumulated thermal stress leading to bleaching. Symbiodinium in 139 scleractinian corals belonged almost exclusively to clade C, with clade D symbionts present in only 3% of the colonies. Two atypical C subclades were present in Stylophora and Pocillopora colonies and these were more abundant in shallow than deeper sites. Taxon-specific differences in bleaching responses were unrelated to different clades of algal symbionts and suggest that Symbiodinium C subtypes with diverse thermal tolerance, coupled with acclimatisation and morphology of the host colony influence the bleaching response. Additionally, the predominance of putatively thermal-sensitive Symbiodinium in southern African corals may reflect a limited experience of bleaching and emphasises the vulnerability of these reefs to moderate levels of thermal stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]