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Coral bleaching, a consequence of stressed symbiotic relationships between corals and algae, has escalated due to intensified heat stress events driven by climate change. Despite global efforts, current early warning systems lack local precision. Our study, spanning 2015-2017 in the Mesoamerican Reef, revealed prevalent intermediate bleaching, peaking in 2017. By scrutinizing 23 stress exposure and sensitivity metrics, we accurately predicted 75% of bleaching severity variation. Notably, distinct thermal patterns-particularly the climatological seasonal warming rate and various heat stress metrics-emerged as better predictors compared to conventional indices (such as Degree Heating Weeks). Surprisingly, deeper reefs with diverse coral communities showed heightened vulnerability. This study presents a framework for coral reef bleaching vulnerability assessment, leveraging accessible data (including historical and real-time sea surface temperature, habitat variables, and species composition). Its operational potential lies in seamless integration with existing monitoring systems, offering crucial insights for conservation and management., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Coral reef ecosystems are declining due to multiple interacting stressors. A bioassessment framework focused on stressor-response associations was developed to help organize and communicate complex ecological information to support coral reef conservation. This study applied the Biological Condition Gradient (BCG), initially developed for freshwater ecosystems, to fish assemblages of U.S. Caribbean coral reef ecosystems. The reef fish BCG describes how biological conditions changed incrementally along a gradient of increasing anthropogenic stress. Coupled with physical and chemical water quality data, the BGC forms a scientifically defensible basis to prioritize, protect and restore water bodies containing coral reefs. Through an iterative process, scientists from across the U.S. Caribbean used fishery-independent survey data and expert knowledge to develop quantitative decision rules to describe six levels of coral reef ecosystem condition. The resultant reef fish BCG provides an effective tool for identifying healthy and degraded coral reef ecosystems and has potential for global application., (Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Increasing heat stress due to global climate change is causing coral reef decline, and the Caribbean has been one of the most vulnerable regions. Here, we assessed three decades (1985-2017) of heat stress exposure in the wider Caribbean at ecoregional and local scales using remote sensing. We found a high spatial and temporal variability of heat stress, emphasizing an observed increase in heat exposure over time in most ecoregions, especially from 2003 identified as a temporal change point in heat stress. A spatiotemporal analysis classified the Caribbean into eight heat-stress regions offering a new regionalization scheme based on historical heat exposure patterns. The temporal analysis confirmed the years 1998, 2005, 2010-2011, 2015 and 2017 as severe and widespread Caribbean heat-stress events and recognized a change point in 2002-2004, after which heat exposure has been frequent in most subsequent years. Major heat-stress events may be associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but we highlight the relevance of the long-term increase in heat exposure in most ecoregions and in all ENSO phases. This work produced a new baseline and regionalization of heat stress in the basin that will enhance conservation and planning efforts underway.