1. Exploring Heterogeneity in Cost-Effectiveness Using Machine Learning Methods: A Case Study Using the FIRST-ABC Trial.
- Author
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Hattab Z, Doherty E, Sadique Z, Ramnarayan P, and O'Neill S
- Subjects
- Humans, Female, Male, Infant, United Kingdom, Child, Preschool, Intensive Care Units, Pediatric economics, Cannula, Oxygen Inhalation Therapy economics, Oxygen Inhalation Therapy methods, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Child, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Continuous Positive Airway Pressure economics, Machine Learning
- Abstract
Objective: The aim of this study was to explore heterogeneity in the cost-effectiveness of high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) therapy compared with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) in children following extubation., Design: Using data from the FIRST-line support for Assistance in Breathing in Children (FIRST-ABC) trial, we explore heterogeneity at the individual and subgroup levels using a causal forest approach, alongside a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) approach for comparison., Settings: FIRST-ABC is a noninferiority randomized controlled trial (ISRCTN60048867) including children in UK paediatric intensive care units, which compared HFNC with CPAP as the first-line mode of noninvasive respiratory support., Patients: In the step-down FIRST-ABC, 600 children clinically assessed to require noninvasive respiratory support were randomly assigned to HFNC and CPAP groups with 1:1 treatment allocation ratio. In this analysis, 118 patients were excluded because they did not consent to accessing their medical records, did not consent to follow-up questionnaire or did not receive respiratory support., Measurements and Main Results: The primary outcome of this study is the incremental net monetary benefit (INB) of HFNC compared with CPAP using a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per QALY gain. INB is calculated based on total costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) at 6 months. The findings suggest modest heterogeneity in cost-effectiveness of HFNC compared with CPAP at the subgroup level, while greater heterogeneity is detected at the individual level., Conclusions: The estimated overall INB of HFNC is smaller than the INB for patients with better baseline status suggesting that HFNC can be more cost-effective among less severely ill patients., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2024
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