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Background: Studies measuring contact networks have helped to improve our understanding of infectious disease transmission. However, several methodological issues are still unresolved, such as which method of contact measurement is the most valid. Further, complete network analysis requires data from most, ideally all, members of a network and, to achieve this, acceptance of the measurement method. We aimed at investigating measurement error by comparing two methods of contact measurement - paper diaries vs. wearable proximity sensors - that were applied concurrently to the same population, and we measured acceptability., Methods: We investigated the contact network of one day of an epidemiology conference in September 2014. Seventy-six participants wore proximity sensors throughout the day while concurrently recording their contacts with other study participants in a paper-diary; they also reported on method acceptability., Results: There were 329 contact reports in the paper diaries, corresponding to 199 contacts, of which 130 were noted by both parties. The sensors recorded 316 contacts, which would have resulted in 632 contact reports if there had been perfect concordance in recording. We estimated the probabilities that a contact was reported in a diary as: P = 72 % for <5 min contact duration (significantly lower than the following, p < 0.05), P = 86 % for 5-15 min, P = 89 % for 15-60 min, and P = 94 % for >60 min. The sets of sensor-measured and self-reported contacts had a large intersection, but neither was a subset of the other. Participants' aggregated contact duration was mostly substantially longer in the diary data than in the sensor data. Twenty percent of respondents (>1 reported contact) stated that filling in the diary was too much work, 25 % of respondents reported difficulties in remembering contacts, and 93 % were comfortable having their conference contacts measured by sensors., Conclusion: Reporting and recording were not complete; reporting was particularly incomplete for contacts <5 min. The types of contact that both methods are capable of detecting are partly different. Participants appear to have overestimated the duration of their contacts. Conducting a study with diaries or wearable sensors was acceptable to and mostly easily done by participants. Both methods can be applied meaningfully if their specific limitations are considered and incompleteness is accounted for.

Data describing human interactions often suffer from incomplete sampling of the underlying population. As a consequence, the study of contagion processes using data-driven models can lead to a severe underestimation of the epidemic risk. Here we present a systematic method to alleviate this issue and obtain a better estimation of the risk in the context of epidemic models informed by high-resolution time-resolved contact data. We consider several such data sets collected in various contexts and perform controlled resampling experiments. We show how the statistical information contained in the resampled data can be used to build a series of surrogate versions of the unknown contacts. We simulate epidemic processes on the resulting reconstructed data sets and show that it is possible to obtain good estimates of the outcome of simulations performed using the complete data set. We discuss limitations and potential improvements of our method.

Objective: Contact patterns and microbiological data contribute to a detailed understanding of infectious disease transmission. We explored the automated collection of high-resolution contact data by wearable sensors combined with virological data to investigate influenza transmission among patients and healthcare workers in a geriatric unit., Design: Proof-of-concept observational study. Detailed information on contact patterns were collected by wearable sensors over 12 days. Systematic nasopharyngeal swabs were taken, analyzed for influenza A and B viruses by real-time polymerase chain reaction, and cultured for phylogenetic analysis., Setting: An acute-care geriatric unit in a tertiary care hospital., Participants: Patients, nurses, and medical doctors., Results: A total of 18,765 contacts were recorded among 37 patients, 32 nurses, and 15 medical doctors. Most contacts occurred between nurses or between a nurse and a patient. Fifteen individuals had influenza A (H3N2). Among these, 11 study participants were positive at the beginning of the study or at admission, and 3 patients and 1 nurse acquired laboratory-confirmed influenza during the study. Infectious medical doctors and nurses were identified as potential sources of hospital-acquired influenza (HA-Flu) for patients, and infectious patients were identified as likely sources for nurses. Only 1 potential transmission between nurses was observed., Conclusions: Combining high-resolution contact data and virological data allowed us to identify a potential transmission route in each possible case of HA-Flu. This promising method should be applied for longer periods in larger populations, with more complete use of phylogenetic analyses, for a better understanding of influenza transmission dynamics in a hospital setting.

Background: The integration of empirical data in computational frameworks designed to model the spread of infectious diseases poses a number of challenges that are becoming more pressing with the increasing availability of high-resolution information on human mobility and contacts. This deluge of data has the potential to revolutionize the computational efforts aimed at simulating scenarios, designing containment strategies, and evaluating outcomes. However, the integration of highly detailed data sources yields models that are less transparent and general in their applicability. Hence, given a specific disease model, it is crucial to assess which representations of the raw data work best to inform the model, striking a balance between simplicity and detail., Methods: We consider high-resolution data on the face-to-face interactions of individuals in a pediatric hospital ward, obtained by using wearable proximity sensors. We simulate the spread of a disease in this community by using an SEIR model on top of different mathematical representations of the empirical contact patterns. At the most detailed level, we take into account all contacts between individuals and their exact timing and order. Then, we build a hierarchy of coarse-grained representations of the contact patterns that preserve only partially the temporal and structural information available in the data. We compare the dynamics of the SEIR model across these representations., Results: We show that a contact matrix that only contains average contact durations between role classes fails to reproduce the size of the epidemic obtained using the high-resolution contact data and also fails to identify the most at-risk classes. We introduce a contact matrix of probability distributions that takes into account the heterogeneity of contact durations between (and within) classes of individuals, and we show that, in the case study presented, this representation yields a good approximation of the epidemic spreading properties obtained by using the high-resolution data., Conclusions: Our results mark a first step towards the definition of synopses of high-resolution dynamic contact networks, providing a compact representation of contact patterns that can correctly inform computational models designed to discover risk groups and evaluate containment policies. We show in a typical case of a structured population that this novel kind of representation can preserve in simulation quantitative features of the epidemics that are crucial for their study and management.

Background: The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts between individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. However, there are few empirical studies available that provide estimates of the number and duration of contacts between social groups. Moreover, their space and time resolutions are limited, so that data are not explicit at the person-to-person level, and the dynamic nature of the contacts is disregarded. In this study, we aimed to assess the role of data-driven dynamic contact patterns between individuals, and in particular of their temporal aspects, in shaping the spread of a simulated epidemic in the population., Methods: We considered high-resolution data about face-to-face interactions between the attendees at a conference, obtained from the deployment of an infrastructure based on radiofrequency identification (RFID) devices that assessed mutual face-to-face proximity. The spread of epidemics along these interactions was simulated using an SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model, using both the dynamic network of contacts defined by the collected data, and two aggregated versions of such networks, to assess the role of the data temporal aspects., Results: We show that, on the timescales considered, an aggregated network taking into account the daily duration of contacts is a good approximation to the full resolution network, whereas a homogeneous representation that retains only the topology of the contact network fails to reproduce the size of the epidemic., Conclusions: These results have important implications for understanding the level of detail needed to correctly inform computational models for the study and management of real epidemics. Please see related article BMC Medicine, 2011, 9:88., (© 2011 Stehlé et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.)

Assessing the impact of mobility on epidemic spreading is of crucial importance for understanding the effect of policies like mass quarantines and selective re-openings. While many factors affect disease incidence at a local level, making it more or less homogeneous with respect to other areas, the importance of multi-seeding has often been overlooked. Multi-seeding occurs when several independent (non-clustered) infected individuals arrive at a susceptible population. This can lead to independent outbreaks that spark from distinct areas of the local contact (social) network. Such mechanism has the potential to boost incidence, making control efforts and contact tracing less effective. Here, through a modeling approach we show that the effect produced by the number of initial infections is non-linear on the incidence peak and peak time. When case importations are carried by mobility from an already infected area, this effect is further enhanced by the local demography and underlying mixing patterns: the impact of every seed is larger in smaller populations. Finally, both in the model simulations and the analysis, we show that a multi-seeding effect combined with mobility restrictions can explain the observed spatial heterogeneities in the first wave of COVID-19 incidence and mortality in five European countries. Our results allow us for identifying what we have called epidemic epicenter: an area that shapes incidence and mortality peaks in the entire country. The present work further clarifies the nonlinear effects that mobility can have on the evolution of an epidemic and highlight their relevance for epidemic control. Author summary: Human mobility controls the spreading of infectious diseases worldwide. Pathogens use infected individuals as vehicles to travel from one city to another, between countries and even across continents. We know that the arrival of the first case or seed at a population is connected to the probability of traveling there from the area of disease emergence. The question that we address here is not when the first cases arrive or the local outbreak starts, but whether the continuous arrival of more infected individuals can have an impact on the development of the local outbreak. We show with standard epidemic spreading models that indeed there is a relation between the number of seeds arriving at a location over the resident population, the height of the local incidence peaks and the total population finally affected. It is a non-linear relation, and it depends on the details of the social contact network in the destination area. After this theoretical work and thanks to mobility data from different European countries of Europe, we find that there are solid signs of multiseeding effects similar to those observed in the models in the propagation of the first COVID-19 wave in the continent. We take advantage of this to propose a method to understand and reconstruct the spatial spreading patterns of the main outbreak-producing events in every country. From a public health point of view, surveillance on the importation of cases in a region is fundamental to anticipate the severity of local outbreaks and minimize their consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]