Search

The article presents the dynamics of the gas market development for two scenarios of the economy of the Eastern regions of Russia (Eastern Siberia, Far East). We have determined rational volume of natural gas required to meet the domestic demand of the Eastern regions for gas and the volume of its exports to the NEA countries. Based on the economic estimation of efficiency of different options of export (pipeline gas, LNG), we give the prognosis of the dynamics and structure of gas export from the Eastern regions of the country. Based on the calculations using the dynamic optimization model of the country’s fuel and energy industry the following conclusions can be made for the Eastern regions of Russia till 2035: the volume of gas consumption may increase 2.1–2.3 times up to 31–35 billion m3; the export of natural gas may increase to 70–71 billion m3 at projected ‘global’ prices; the gas extraction volume may constitute 107–113 billion m3 annually. Additionally, estimating the efficiency reserve of the Russian gas export allowed prioritizing, among new export projects in the East of Russia, LNG plants (Sakhalin-LNG-2, Far Eastern LNG) and the pipeline ‘Power of Siberia’, which would allow exporting 38 billion m3 of gas to China through the pipeline and 32–33 billion m3 of LNG to the markets of the NEA countries

The paper examines the role of Asian regions of the country (Siberia and Far East) in production and consumption of fuel and energy resources until 2035. Based on the modeling calculations the following conclusions can be drawn: the production of energy in the regions has to increase (compared to 2015) by 14–22% and make up 1700–1825 million tons of conditional fuel; increase rates of energy consumption in Asian regions would outrun the all-Russian by 4–5%, while the region’s share in energy consumption would make up 30%; the Asian regions would remain the main providers of energy – more than 80% (1380–1480 million tons) energy resources procured in the region would be exported out, out of which 840–885 – for foreign export; the European direction would dominate while its share would decrease from 72 to 60%; Asian export can increase 1.7–1.9 times by 2035 and make up 325–360 million tons with its share increasing from 28 to 40