Search

This paper presents an approach to estimate demand in the Polish Power System (PPS) using the historical electricity usage of 27 thousand commercial customers, observed between 2016 and 2020. The customer data were clustered and samples as well as features were created to build neural network models. The goal of this research is to analyze if the clustering of customers can help to explain demand in the PPS. Additionally, considering that the datasets available for commercial customers are typically much smaller, it was analyzed what a minimal sample size drawn from the clusters would have to be in order to accurately estimate demand in the PPS. The evaluation and experiments were conducted for each year separately; the results proved that, considering adjusted R2 and mean absolute percentage error, our clustering-based method can deliver a high accuracy in the load estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nearly 60% of commercial customers are connected to a low-voltage network in Poland with a contractual capacity of more than 40 kW and are assigned a fixed tariff with flat prices for the whole year, no matter the usage volume. With smart meters, more data about how businesses use energy are becoming available to both energy providers and customers. This enables innovation in the structure and type of tariffs on offer in the energy market. Customers can explore their usage patterns to choose the most suitable tariff to benefit from lower prices and thus generate savings. In this paper, we analyzed whether customers' electricity usage matched their optimal tariff and further investigated which of them could benefit or lose from switching the tariff based on the real dataset with the hourly energy readings of 1212 commercial entities in Poland recorded between 2016 and 2019. Three modelling approaches, i.e., the k-nearest neighbors, classification tree and random forest, were tested for optimal tariff classification, while for the benchmark, we used a simple approach, in which the tariff was proposed based on the customers' previous electricity usage. The main findings from the research are threefold: (1) out of all the analyzed entities, on average, 76% of them could have benefited from the tariff switching, which suggests that customers may not be aware of the tariff change benefits, or they had chosen a tariff plan that was not tailored to them; (2) a random forest model offers a viable approach to accurate tariff classification; (3) the policy implication from the research is the need to increase the customers' awareness about the tariffs and propose reliable tools for selecting the optimal tariff. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]