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With the ongoing sovereign debt and biodiversity crises in many emerging economies, applications of debt-for-nature swaps as a dual solution for sovereign debt and nature conservation have been re-emerging. We analyze how debt-for-nature swaps (DNS) can be scaled to protect biodiversity priority areas and reduce debt burden. We build a dataset for biodiversity conservation and debt restructuring in 67 countries at risk of sovereign debt distress and show that they hold over 22% of global biodiversity priority areas, 82.96% of which are unprotected. Furthermore, we show that for 35 of the 67 countries, using conservative cost estimates, 100% of unprotected biodiversity priority areas could be protected for a fraction of debt; for the remaining countries, applying DNS would allow the protection of 11-13% of currently unprotected biodiversity priority areas. By applying interdisciplinary research combining fundamental biodiversity and economic data and methods merging, the research contributes methodologically and practically to the understanding of debt-for-nature swaps for emerging economies., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Illegal wildlife trade (IWT) is one of the leading causes of the decline in high-value species. Crime-reduction strategies to counter IWT can have unintended effects, with crime displacement occurring when offenders react to such interventions. Despite the value of understanding how and why displacement occurs for informing conservation strategies, few examples are published. We explored a case of perpetrator replacement following an intervention and drew lessons for conservation strategies for high-value species. Poaching and subsequent trade threaten the Sundarbans tiger (Panthera tigris). Pirate gangs were the dominant poachers from 1980 to 2017, but following an extensive campaign, the Sundarbans was declared pirate free in 2018. We interviewed 280 individuals, including 100 tiger poachers, from 26 administrative unions bordering the Sundarbans and used interviewee responses to compare the poaching situation during and after the pirate era. We analyzed the spatial distribution of tiger poachers among the unions and used crime script analysis of the dominant poacher type to identify intervention. Because pirates opportunistically poached tigers, the government's successful counter-pirate campaign inadvertently removed the dominant tiger poaching type. However, a temporary reduction in poaching was rapidly cancelled out by the emergence of at least 32 specialist tiger-poaching teams. With the risk of extortion and robbery from pirates gone, other groups increased the frequency of opportunistic and targeted tiger poaching. Based on expert interviews, we estimated that 341 tiger poachers of all types are active throughout the unions, with 79% of specialists concentrated in 27% of unions. The highly focused counter-pirate campaign reduced motivations and opportunities for piracy but left intact the opportunity structure and trade connections for tiger poaching, and with insufficient enforcement officers trading has flourished. Interventions targeting opportunities for poaching by specialist tiger poachers include heightened surveillance and reporting mechanisms and alternative livelihood provision to disincentivize poaching., (© 2022 Society for Conservation Biology.)

The strategic goals of the United Nations and the Aichi Targets for biodiversity conservation have not been met. Instead, biodiversity has continued to rapidly decrease, especially in developing countries. Setting a new global biodiversity framework requires clarifying future priorities and strategies to bridge challenges and provide representative solutions. Hyper-arid, arid, and semi-arid lands (herein, arid lands) form about one third of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Arid lands contain unique biological and cultural diversity, and biodiversity loss in arid lands can have a disproportionate impact on these ecosystems due to low redundancy and a high risk of trophic cascades. They contain unique biological and cultural diversity and host many endemic species, including wild relatives of key crop plants. Yet extensive agriculture, unsustainable use, and global climate change are causing an irrecoverable damage to arid lands, with far-reaching consequences to the species, ground-water resources, ecosystem productivity, and ultimately the communities' dependant on these systems. However, adequate research and effective policies to protect arid land biodiversity and sustainability are lacking because a large proportion of arid areas are in developing countries, and the unique diversity in these systems is frequently overlooked. Developing new priorities for global arid lands and mechanisms to prevent unsustainable development must become part of public discourse and form the basis for conservation efforts. The current situation demands the combined efforts of researchers, practitioners, policymakers, and local communities to adopt a socio-ecological approach for achieving sustainable development (SDGs) in arid lands. Applying these initiatives globally is imperative to conserve arid lands biodiversity and the critical ecological services they provide for future generations. This perspective provides a framework for conserving biodiversity in arid lands for all stakeholders that will have a tangible impact on sustainable development, nature, and human well-being., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Although 23% of Thailand's land is in protected areas, these are vulnerable to climate change. We used spatial distribution modelling for 866 vertebrate and 591 plant species to understand potential climate change impacts on species in protected areas. Most mammals, birds, and plants were projected to decline by 2070, but most amphibians and reptiles were projected to increase. By 2070 under RCP8.5, 54% of modeled species will be threatened and 11 nationally extinct. However, SDMs are sensitive to truncation of the climate space currently occupied by habitat loss and hunting, and apparent truncation by data limitations. In Thailand, lowland forest clearance has biased records for forest-dependent species to cooler uplands (> 250 m a.s.l.) and hunting has confined larger vertebrates to well-protected areas. In contrast, available data is biased towards lowland non-forest taxa for amphibians and reptiles. Niche truncation may therefore have resulted in overestimation of vulnerability for some mammal and plant species, while data limitations have likely led to underestimation of the threat to forest-dependent amphibians and reptiles. In view of the certainty of climate change but the many uncertainties regarding biological responses, we recommend regular, long-term monitoring of species and communities to detect early signals of climate change impacts., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

We present the results of our 13th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact on biodiversity conservation. Issues are either novel within the biological conservation sector or could cause a substantial step-change in impact, either globally or regionally. Our global panel of 26 scientists and practitioners identified 15 issues that we believe to represent the highest priorities for tracking and action. Many of the issues we identified, including the impact of satellite megaconstellations and the use of long-distance wireless energy transfer, have both elements of threats and emerging opportunities. A recent state-sponsored application to commence deep-sea mining represents a significant step-change in impact. We hope that this horizon scan will increase research and policy attention on the highlighted issues., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests No interests are declared., (Crown Copyright © 2021. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Global trade of wildlife is a major driver of species decline. The trade in wildlife actually plays a much larger role in our daily lives than many people realize, and its use and legality are surprisingly complex. Wildlife trade includes the trade of any organism, including fungi, plants and animals, sourced from the wild. This comprises thousands of wild species, including over 7600, or nearly one quarter, of terrestrial vertebrate species. Trade in wildlife is worth billions annually via commercial fishing at $180 billion, timber at $227 billion and fashion at $2.5 billion - in addition to largely unquantified trade for meat, medicine, ornamental use and pets. Wildlife trade, such as that of ivory, is the subject of intense public debate, international regulation and criminal prosecution, while trade of other species is more often overlooked. How wildlife trade is regulated and what is legal and illegal varies both between and within taxonomic groups and depends on where and how trade occurs. Wildlife trade across most sectors has increased since monitoring began, for example, between 1996 and 2018 the global fish market rose from $40 billion to $180 billion, wood from $65 billion to $137 billion and reptile leather for fashion trade from $140 million to $600 million. In concert, the annual number of trades legally traded through CITES has also grown, from under 5000 transactions in 1977 to peaking at over 1.3 million in 2015, with shipment size increasing in parallel and seizures of illegally traded species showing similar trends. Balancing the needs of people for livelihood generation, especially with access and benefit-sharing rights, with the impact on species survival remains difficult. Issues like the role of trophy and sports hunting within conservation remain a topic of debate in the conservation community. Finding approaches that enable long-term species survival, are equitable and do not undermine livelihoods is a constant challenge., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

We present the results from our 12th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact biological conservation in the future. From a list of 97 topics, our global panel of 25 scientists and practitioners identified the top 15 issues that we believe society may urgently need to address. These issues are either novel in the biological conservation sector or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change in impact at global or regional level. Six issues, such as coral reef deoxygenation and changes in polar coastal productivity, affect marine or coastal ecosystems and seven relate to human and ecosystem-level responses to climate change. Identification of potential forthcoming issues for biological conservation may enable increased preparedness by researchers, practitioners, and decision-makers., (Crown Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) represents the largest infrastructure and development project in human history, and presents risks and opportunities for ecosystems, economies, and communities. Some risks (habitat fragmentation, roadkill) are obvious, however, many of the BRI's largest challenges for development and conservation are not obvious and require extensive consideration to identify. In this first BRI Horizon Scan, we identify 11 frontier issues that may have large environmental and social impacts but are not yet recognised. More generally, the BRI will increase China's participation in international environmental governance. Thus, new cooperative modes of governance are needed to balance geopolitical, societal, and environmental interests. Upgrading and standardising global environmental standards is essential to safeguard ecological systems and human societies., (Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

In this horizon scan, we highlight 15 emerging issues of potential relevance to global conservation in 2020. Seven relate to potentially extensive changes in vegetation or ecological systems. These changes are either relatively new, for example, conversion of kelp forests to simpler macroalgal systems, or may occur in the future, for example, as a result of the derivation of nanocelluose from wood or the rapid expansion of small hydropower schemes. Other topics highlight potential changes in national legislation that may have global effect on international agreements. Our panel of 23 scientists and practitioners selected these issues using a modified version of the Delphi technique from a long-list of 89 potential topics., (Crown Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) sets to create connections and build infrastructure across Eurasia, Asia, and parts of the African continent in its initial phase and is the largest infrastructure project of all time. Any infrastructure project on this scale will necessarily pass through ecofragile regions and key biodiversity areas (KBAs). This creates an imperative to identify possible areas of impact and probable effects on conservation values to facilitate adaptive planning and to mitigate, minimize, or avoid impacts. Using the highest resolution route maps of the BRI available, I overlaid the proposed road and rail routes on KBAs, protected areas, and predicted biodiversity hotspots for over 4138 animal and 7371 plant species. I also assessed the relationship between the proposed route with the distribution of mines across BRI countries and the proportion of deforestation and forest near routes. Infrastructure, especially mining, was clustered near the proposed route; thus, construction and development along the route may increase the size and number of mines. Up to 15% of KBAs were within 1 km of proposed railways. Thus, planned and probable development along the routes may pose a significant risk to biodiversity, especially because the majority of KBAs are unprotected. Many biodiversity hotspots for different taxa were near the route. These hotspots varied between taxa, making systematic management and environmental impact assessments an effective strategy for at least some taxa. A combination of planning and mitigation strategies will likely be necessary to protect the most important areas for biodiversity proximal to development, especially in currently unprotected KBAs and other regions that need protection. A fuller assessment of trade-offs between conservation and other values will be necessary to make good decisions for each project and site being developed, including potentially modifying parts of the route to minimize impacts. Modification or foregoing of infrastructure may be needed if stakeholders consider the conservation costs too high., (© 2019 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.)

We present the results of our tenth annual horizon scan. We identified 15 emerging priority topics that may have major positive or negative effects on the future conservation of global biodiversity, but currently have low awareness within the conservation community. We hope to increase research and policy attention on these areas, improving the capacity of the community to mitigate impacts of potentially negative issues, and maximise the benefits of issues that provide opportunities. Topics include advances in crop breeding, which may affect insects and land use; manipulations of natural water flows and weather systems on the Tibetan Plateau; release of carbon and mercury from melting polar ice and thawing permafrost; new funding schemes and regulations; and land-use changes across Indo-Malaysia., (Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

The IUCN Red List has assessed the global distributions of the majority of the world's amphibians, birds and mammals. Yet these assessments lack explicit reference to widely available, remotely-sensed data that can sensibly inform a species' risk of extinction. Our first goal is to add additional quantitative data to the existing standardised process that IUCN employs. Secondly, we ask: do our results suggest species of concern-those at considerably greater risk than hitherto appreciated? Thirdly, these assessments are not only important on a species-by-species basis. By combining distributions of species of concern, we map conservation priorities. We ask to what degree these areas are currently protected and how might knowledge from remote sensing modify the priorities? Finally, we develop a quick and simple method to identify and modify the priority setting in a landscape where natural habitats are disappearing rapidly and so where conventional species' assessments might be too slow to respond. Tropical, mainland Southeast Asia is under exceptional threat, yet relatively poorly known. Here, additional quantitative measures may be particularly helpful. This region contains over 122, 183, and 214 endemic mammals, birds, and amphibians, respectively, of which the IUCN considers 37, 21, and 37 threatened. When corrected for the amount of remaining natural habitats within the known elevation preferences of species, the average sizes of species ranges shrink to <40% of their published ranges. Some 79 mammal, 49 bird, and 184 amphibian ranges are <20,000km2-an area at which IUCN considers most other species to be threatened. Moreover, these species are not better protected by the existing network of protected areas than are species that IUCN accepts as threatened. Simply, there appear to be considerably more species at risk than hitherto appreciated. Furthermore, incorporating remote sensing data showing where habitat loss is prevalent changes the locations of conservation priorities.