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Estimating treatment effects from observational data is of central interest across numerous application domains. Individual treatment effect offers the most granular measure of treatment effect on an individual level, and is the most useful to facilitate personalized care. However, its estimation and inference remain underdeveloped due to several challenges. In this article, we propose a novel conformal diffusion model-based approach that addresses those intricate challenges. We integrate the highly flexible diffusion modeling, the model-free statistical inference paradigm of conformal inference, along with propensity score and covariate local approximation that tackle distributional shifts. We unbiasedly estimate the distributions of potential outcomes for individual treatment effect, construct an informative confidence interval, and establish rigorous theoretical guarantees. We demonstrate the competitive performance of the proposed method over existing solutions through extensive numerical studies.

Imbalanced data and spurious correlations are common challenges in machine learning and data science. Oversampling, which artificially increases the number of instances in the underrepresented classes, has been widely adopted to tackle these challenges. In this article, we introduce OPAL (\textbf{O}versam\textbf{P}ling with \textbf{A}rtificial \textbf{L}LM-generated data), a systematic oversampling approach that leverages the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) to generate high-quality synthetic data for minority groups. Recent studies on synthetic data generation using deep generative models mostly target prediction tasks. Our proposal differs in that we focus on handling imbalanced data and spurious correlations. More importantly, we develop a novel theory that rigorously characterizes the benefits of using the synthetic data, and shows the capacity of transformers in generating high-quality synthetic data for both labels and covariates. We further conduct intensive numerical experiments to demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed approach compared to some representative alternative solutions., Comment: 59 pages, 7 figures

The Markov property is widely imposed in analysis of time series data. Correspondingly, testing the Markov property, and relatedly, inferring the order of a Markov model, are of paramount importance. In this article, we propose a nonparametric test for the Markov property in high-dimensional time series via deep conditional generative learning. We also apply the test sequentially to determine the order of the Markov model. We show that the test controls the type-I error asymptotically, and has the power approaching one. Our proposal makes novel contributions in several ways. We utilize and extend state-of-the-art deep generative learning to estimate the conditional density functions, and establish a sharp upper bound on the approximation error of the estimators. We derive a doubly robust test statistic, which employs a nonparametric estimation but achieves a parametric convergence rate. We further adopt sample splitting and cross-fitting to minimize the conditions required to ensure the consistency of the test. We demonstrate the efficacy of the test through both simulations and the three data applications.

A brain-computer interface (BCI) is a technology that enables direct communication between the brain and an external device or computer system. It allows individuals to interact with the device using only their thoughts, and holds immense potential for a wide range of applications in medicine, rehabilitation, and human augmentation. An electroencephalogram (EEG) and event-related potential (ERP)-based speller system is a type of BCI that allows users to spell words without using a physical keyboard, but instead by recording and interpreting brain signals under different stimulus presentation paradigms. Conventional non-adaptive paradigms treat each word selection independently, leading to a lengthy learning process. To improve the sampling efficiency, we cast the problem as a sequence of best-arm identification tasks in multi-armed bandits. Leveraging pre-trained large language models (LLMs), we utilize the prior knowledge learned from previous tasks to inform and facilitate subsequent tasks. To do so in a coherent way, we propose a sequential top-two Thompson sampling (STTS) algorithm under the fixed-confidence setting and the fixed-budget setting. We study the theoretical property of the proposed algorithm, and demonstrate its substantial empirical improvement through both synthetic data analysis as well as a P300 BCI speller simulator example.

In this article, we propose a novel pessimism-based Bayesian learning method for optimal dynamic treatment regimes in the offline setting. When the coverage condition does not hold, which is common for offline data, the existing solutions would produce sub-optimal policies. The pessimism principle addresses this issue by discouraging recommendation of actions that are less explored conditioning on the state. However, nearly all pessimism-based methods rely on a key hyper-parameter that quantifies the degree of pessimism, and the performance of the methods can be highly sensitive to the choice of this parameter. We propose to integrate the pessimism principle with Thompson sampling and Bayesian machine learning for optimizing the degree of pessimism. We derive a credible set whose boundary uniformly lower bounds the optimal Q-function, and thus we do not require additional tuning of the degree of pessimism. We develop a general Bayesian learning method that works with a range of models, from Bayesian linear basis model to Bayesian neural network model. We develop the computational algorithm based on variational inference, which is highly efficient and scalable. We establish the theoretical guarantees of the proposed method, and show empirically that it outperforms the existing state-of-the-art solutions through both simulations and a real data example., Comment: 18 pages, 6 figures. Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS) 2023

In this article, we propose a new hypothesis testing method for directed acyclic graph (DAG). While there is a rich class of DAG estimation methods, there is a relative paucity of DAG inference solutions. Moreover, the existing methods often impose some specific model structures such as linear models or additive models, and assume independent data observations. Our proposed test instead allows the associations among the random variables to be nonlinear and the data to be time-dependent. We build the test based on some highly flexible neural networks learners. We establish the asymptotic guarantees of the test, while allowing either the number of subjects or the number of time points for each subject to diverge to infinity. We demonstrate the efficacy of the test through simulations and a brain connectivity network analysis.

Learning of matrix-valued data has recently surged in a range of scientific and business applications. Trace regression is a widely used method to model effects of matrix predictors and has shown great success in matrix learning. However, nearly all existing trace regression solutions rely on two assumptions: (i) a known functional form of the conditional mean, and (ii) a global low-rank structure in the entire range of the regression function, both of which may be violated in practice. In this article, we relax these assumptions by developing a general framework for nonparametric trace regression models via structured sign series representations of high dimensional functions. The new model embraces both linear and nonlinear trace effects, and enjoys rank invariance to order-preserving transformations of the response. In the context of matrix completion, our framework leads to a substantially richer model based on what we coin as the "sign rank" of a matrix. We show that the sign series can be statistically characterized by weighted classification tasks. Based on this connection, we propose a learning reduction approach to learn the regression model via a series of classifiers, and develop a parallelable computation algorithm to implement sign series aggregations. We establish the excess risk bounds, estimation error rates, and sample complexities. Our proposal provides a broad nonparametric paradigm to many important matrix learning problems, including matrix regression, matrix completion, multi-task learning, and compressed sensing. We demonstrate the advantages of our method through simulations and two applications, one on brain connectivity study and the other on high-rank image completion., Comment: 66 pages, 10 figures

Delineating the associations between images and a vector of covariates is of central interest in medical imaging studies. To tackle this problem of image response regression, we propose a novel nonparametric approach in the framework of spatially varying coefficient models, where the spatially varying functions are estimated through deep neural networks. Compared to existing solutions, the proposed method explicitly accounts for spatial smoothness and subject heterogeneity, has straightforward interpretations, and is highly flexible and accurate in capturing complex association patterns. A key idea in our approach is to treat the image voxels as the effective samples, which not only alleviates the limited sample size issue that haunts the majority of medical imaging studies, but also leads to more robust and reproducible results. Focusing on a broad family of piecewise smooth functions, we establish the estimation and selection consistency, and derive the asymptotic error bounds. We demonstrate the efficacy of the method through intensive simulations, and further illustrate its advantages with analyses of two functional magnetic resonance imaging datasets.

In this article, we study the problem of high-dimensional conditional independence testing, a key building block in statistics and machine learning. We propose an inferential procedure based on double generative adversarial networks (GANs). Specifically, we first introduce a double GANs framework to learn two generators of the conditional distributions. We then integrate the two generators to construct a test statistic, which takes the form of the maximum of generalized covariance measures of multiple transformation functions. We also employ data-splitting and cross-fitting to minimize the conditions on the generators to achieve the desired asymptotic properties, and employ multiplier bootstrap to obtain the corresponding $p$-value. We show that the constructed test statistic is doubly robust, and the resulting test both controls type-I error and has the power approaching one asymptotically. Also notably, we establish those theoretical guarantees under much weaker and practically more feasible conditions compared to the existing tests, and our proposal gives a concrete example of how to utilize some state-of-the-art deep learning tools, such as GANs, to help address a classical but challenging statistical problem. We demonstrate the efficacy of our test through both simulations and an application to an anti-cancer drug dataset. A Python implementation of the proposed procedure is available at https://github.com/tianlinxu312/dgcit.

In modern data science, dynamic tensor data is prevailing in numerous applications. An important task is to characterize the relationship between such dynamic tensor and external covariates. However, the tensor data is often only partially observed, rendering many existing methods inapplicable. In this article, we develop a regression model with partially observed dynamic tensor as the response and external covariates as the predictor. We introduce the low-rank, sparsity and fusion structures on the regression coefficient tensor, and consider a loss function projected over the observed entries. We develop an efficient non-convex alternating updating algorithm, and derive the finite-sample error bound of the actual estimator from each step of our optimization algorithm. Unobserved entries in tensor response have imposed serious challenges. As a result, our proposal differs considerably in terms of estimation algorithm, regularity conditions, as well as theoretical properties, compared to the existing tensor completion or tensor response regression solutions. We illustrate the efficacy of our proposed method using simulations, and two real applications, a neuroimaging dementia study and a digital advertising study., Comment: Improved lower bound on observation probability (Assumptions 2,6); Improved sample complexity conditions (Assumptions 5,10); Improved final statistical error rate in Theorems 1-2; add a new initialization section; extend to sub-Gaussian error tensor

With the widespread success of deep neural networks in science and technology, it is becoming increasingly important to quantify the uncertainty of the predictions produced by deep learning. In this paper, we introduce a new method that attaches an explicit uncertainty statement to the probabilities of classification using deep neural networks. Precisely, we view that the classification probabilities are sampled from an unknown distribution, and we propose to learn this distribution through the Dirichlet mixture that is flexible enough for approximating any continuous distribution on the simplex. We then construct credible intervals from the learned distribution to assess the uncertainty of the classification probabilities. Our approach is easy to implement, computationally efficient, and can be coupled with any deep neural network architecture. Our method leverages the crucial observation that, in many classification applications such as medical diagnosis, more than one class labels are available for each observational unit. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach through simulations and a real data example.

We consider the problem of decomposing a higher-order tensor with binary entries. Such data problems arise frequently in applications such as neuroimaging, recommendation system, topic modeling, and sensor network localization. We propose a multilinear Bernoulli model, develop a rank-constrained likelihood-based estimation method, and obtain the theoretical accuracy guarantees. In contrast to continuous-valued problems, the binary tensor problem exhibits an interesting phase transition phenomenon according to the signal-to-noise ratio. The error bound for the parameter tensor estimation is established, and we show that the obtained rate is minimax optimal under the considered model. Furthermore, we develop an alternating optimization algorithm with convergence guarantees. The efficacy of our approach is demonstrated through both simulations and analyses of multiple data sets on the tasks of tensor completion and clustering., Comment: 35 pages, 7 figures, 4 tables