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Stock portfolios are often exposed to rare consequential events (e.g., 2007 global financial crisis, 2020 COVID-19 stock market crash), as they do not have enough historical information to learn from. Large Language Models (LLMs) now present a possible tool to tackle this problem, as they can generalize across their large corpus of training data and perform zero-shot reasoning on new events, allowing them to detect possible portfolio crash events without requiring specific training data. However, detecting portfolio crashes is a complex problem that requires more than basic reasoning abilities. Investors need to dynamically process the impact of each new information found in the news articles, analyze the the relational network of impacts across news events and portfolio stocks, as well as understand the temporal context between impacts across time-steps, in order to obtain the overall aggregated effect on the target portfolio. In this work, we propose an algorithmic framework named Temporal Relational Reasoning (TRR). It seeks to emulate the spectrum of human cognitive capabilities used for complex problem-solving, which include brainstorming, memory, attention and reasoning. Through extensive experiments, we show that TRR is able to outperform state-of-the-art solutions on detecting stock portfolio crashes, and demonstrate how each of the proposed components help to contribute to its performance through an ablation study. Additionally, we further explore the possible applications of TRR by extending it to other related complex problems, such as the detection of possible global crisis events in Macroeconomics.

Large language models (LLMs) often exhibit hallucinations due to incorrect or outdated knowledge. Hence, model editing methods have emerged to enable targeted knowledge updates. To achieve this, a prevailing paradigm is the locating-then-editing approach, which first locates influential parameters and then edits them by introducing a perturbation. While effective, current studies have demonstrated that this perturbation inevitably disrupt the originally preserved knowledge within LLMs, especially in sequential editing scenarios. To address this, we introduce AlphaEdit, a novel solution that projects perturbation onto the null space of the preserved knowledge before applying it to the parameters. We theoretically prove that this projection ensures the output of post-edited LLMs remains unchanged when queried about the preserved knowledge, thereby mitigating the issue of disruption. Extensive experiments on various LLMs, including LLaMA3, GPT2-XL, and GPT-J, show that AlphaEdit boosts the performance of most locating-then-editing methods by an average of 36.4% with a single line of additional code for projection solely. Our code is available at: https://github.com/jianghoucheng/AlphaEdit.

We study an emerging and intriguing problem of multimodal temporal event forecasting with large language models. Compared to using text or graph modalities, the investigation of utilizing images for temporal event forecasting has not been fully explored, especially in the era of large language models (LLMs). To bridge this gap, we are particularly interested in two key questions of: 1) why images will help in temporal event forecasting, and 2) how to integrate images into the LLM-based forecasting framework. To answer these research questions, we propose to identify two essential functions that images play in the scenario of temporal event forecasting, i.e., highlighting and complementary. Then, we develop a novel framework, named MM-Forecast. It employs an Image Function Identification module to recognize these functions as verbal descriptions using multimodal large language models (MLLMs), and subsequently incorporates these function descriptions into LLM-based forecasting models. To evaluate our approach, we construct a new multimodal dataset, MidEast-TE-mm, by extending an existing event dataset MidEast-TE-mini with images. Empirical studies demonstrate that our MM-Forecast can correctly identify the image functions, and further more, incorporating these verbal function descriptions significantly improves the forecasting performance. The dataset, code, and prompts are available at https://github.com/LuminosityX/MM-Forecast.

Attack knowledge graph construction seeks to convert textual cyber threat intelligence (CTI) reports into structured representations, portraying the evolutionary traces of cyber attacks. Even though previous research has proposed various methods to construct attack knowledge graphs, they generally suffer from limited generalization capability to diverse knowledge types as well as requirement of expertise in model design and tuning. Addressing these limitations, we seek to utilize Large Language Models (LLMs), which have achieved enormous success in a broad range of tasks given exceptional capabilities in both language understanding and zero-shot task fulfillment. Thus, we propose a fully automatic LLM-based framework to construct attack knowledge graphs named: AttacKG+. Our framework consists of four consecutive modules: rewriter, parser, identifier, and summarizer, each of which is implemented by instruction prompting and in-context learning empowered by LLMs. Furthermore, we upgrade the existing attack knowledge schema and propose a comprehensive version. We represent a cyber attack as a temporally unfolding event, each temporal step of which encapsulates three layers of representation, including behavior graph, MITRE TTP labels, and state summary. Extensive evaluation demonstrates that: 1) our formulation seamlessly satisfies the information needs in threat event analysis, 2) our construction framework is effective in faithfully and accurately extracting the information defined by AttacKG+, and 3) our attack graph directly benefits downstream security practices such as attack reconstruction. All the code and datasets will be released upon acceptance., Comment: 20 pages, 5 figures

Fashion analysis refers to the process of examining and evaluating trends, styles, and elements within the fashion industry to understand and interpret its current state, generating fashion reports. It is traditionally performed by fashion professionals based on their expertise and experience, which requires high labour cost and may also produce biased results for relying heavily on a small group of people. In this paper, to tackle the Fashion Report Generation (FashionReGen) task, we propose an intelligent Fashion Analyzing and Reporting system based the advanced Large Language Models (LLMs), debbed as GPT-FAR. Specifically, it tries to deliver FashionReGen based on effective catwalk analysis, which is equipped with several key procedures, namely, catwalk understanding, collective organization and analysis, and report generation. By posing and exploring such an open-ended, complex and domain-specific task of FashionReGen, it is able to test the general capability of LLMs in fashion domain. It also inspires the explorations of more high-level tasks with industrial significance in other domains. Video illustration and more materials of GPT-FAR can be found in https://github.com/CompFashion/FashionReGen.

Tracking dialogue states to better interpret user goals and feed downstream policy learning is a bottleneck in dialogue management. Common practice has been to treat it as a problem of classifying dialogue content into a set of pre-defined slot-value pairs, or generating values for different slots given the dialogue history. Both have limitations on considering dependencies that occur on dialogues, and are lacking of reasoning capabilities. This paper proposes to track dialogue states gradually with reasoning over dialogue turns with the help of the back-end data. Empirical results demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods by 38.6% in terms of joint belief accuracy for MultiWOZ 2.1, a large-scale human-human dialogue dataset across multiple domains., Comment: further modification needed

When traveling to a foreign country, we are often in dire need of an intelligent conversational agent to provide instant and informative responses to our various queries. However, to build such a travel agent is non-trivial. First of all, travel naturally involves several sub-tasks such as hotel reservation, restaurant recommendation and taxi booking etc, which invokes the need for global topic control. Secondly, the agent should consider various constraints like price or distance given by the user to recommend an appropriate venue. In this paper, we present a Deep Conversational Recommender (DCR) and apply to travel. It augments the sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models with a neural latent topic component to better guide response generation and make the training easier. To consider the various constraints for venue recommendation, we leverage a graph convolutional network (GCN) based approach to capture the relationships between different venues and the match between venue and dialog context. For response generation, we combine the topic-based component with the idea of pointer networks, which allows us to effectively incorporate recommendation results. We perform extensive evaluation on a multi-turn task-oriented dialog dataset in travel domain and the results show that our method achieves superior performance as compared to a wide range of baselines., Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, submitted to TKDE. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1809.07070 by other authors