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Deep probabilistic forecasting is gaining attention across numerous applications. From weather prognosis, electricity consumption estimation, traffic flow prediction, to autonomous vehicle trajectory prediction. However, existing approaches focus on improving on average metrics without addressing the long-tailed distribution of errors. This thesis identifies long tail behavior in the error distribution of state-of-the-art deep learning methods for probabilistic forecasting. We analyze potential sources and explanations for this behavior. Further, we present two loss augmentation methods to mitigate tailedness pf error distributions: Pareto Loss and Kurtosis Loss. Both methods modify the loss using the concept of moments to penalize higher loss samples. Kurtosis Loss uses a symmetric measure, the fourth moment, while Pareto Loss uses an asymmetric measure of right-tailedness and models loss using a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). We demonstrate the performance of our methods on several real-world datasets, including time series and spatiotemporal trajectories, achieving significant improvements on tail error metrics, while maintaining and even improving upon average error metrics.

Since the past few decades, human trajectory forecasting has been a field of active research owing to its numerous real-world applications: evacuation situation analysis, deployment of intelligent transport systems, traffic operations, to name a few. Early works handcrafted this representation based on domain knowledge. However, social interactions in crowded environments are not only diverse but often subtle. Recently, deep learning methods have outperformed their handcrafted counterparts, as they learned about human-human interactions in a more generic data-driven fashion. In this work, we present an in-depth analysis of existing deep learning-based methods for modelling social interactions. We propose two knowledge-based data-driven methods to effectively capture these social interactions. To objectively compare the performance of these interaction-based forecasting models, we develop a large scale interaction-centric benchmark TrajNet++, a significant yet missing component in the field of human trajectory forecasting. We propose novel performance metrics that evaluate the ability of a model to output socially acceptable trajectories. Experiments on TrajNet++ validate the need for our proposed metrics, and our method outperforms competitive baselines on both real-world and synthetic datasets., IEEE format, Layer-wise Relevance Propagation added

Forecasting pedestrian trajectory is critical for versatile applications, such as autonomous driving and social robot, when they work in human-centric environments. However, it is challenging to predict pedestrians' future trajectories due to the inherent human properties and pedestrians' social interactions. Recent works predict future trajectories by using a generative model, which captures social interactions with pooling- or graph-based strategies and generates multi-modal outputs with latent variables sampled from random Gaussian noise. Nevertheless, they introduce little human knowledge, which is beneficial for improved prediction performance. In this work, we propose to learn informative latent variables from pedestrians' future trajectories. Moreover, we present a distance-direction pooling module, which captures social interactions in a more intuitive manner. Besides, we introduce an additional constraint on generative adversarial network optimization to generate more realistic results. Two benchmarking datasets, ETH (Pellegrini et al., 2010) and UCY (Leal-Taixé et al., 2014), are used to evaluate the proposed method. Comparisons between our method and several state-of-the-art methods demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method in generating more accurate future trajectories.

Human Trajectory Prediction (HTP) has gained much momentum in the last years and many solutions have been proposed to solve it. Proper benchmarking being a key issue for comparing methods, this paper addresses the question of evaluating how complex is a given dataset with respect to the prediction problem. For assessing a dataset complexity, we define a series of indicators around three concepts: Trajectory predictability; Trajectory regularity; Context complexity. We compare the most common datasets used in HTP in the light of these indicators and discuss what this may imply on benchmarking of HTP algorithms. Our source code is released on Github., Comment: ACCV2020

Anticipating human motion in crowded scenarios is essential for developing intelligent transportation systems, social-aware robots and advanced video surveillance applications. A key component of this task is represented by the inherently multi-modal nature of human paths which makes socially acceptable multiple futures when human interactions are involved. To this end, we propose a generative architecture for multi-future trajectory predictions based on Conditional Variational Recurrent Neural Networks (C-VRNNs). Conditioning mainly relies on prior belief maps, representing most likely moving directions and forcing the model to consider past observed dynamics in generating future positions. Human interactions are modeled with a graph-based attention mechanism enabling an online attentive hidden state refinement of the recurrent estimation. To corroborate our model, we perform extensive experiments on publicly-available datasets (e.g., ETH/UCY, Stanford Drone Dataset, STATS SportVU NBA, Intersection Drone Dataset and TrajNet++) and demonstrate its effectiveness in crowded scenes compared to several state-of-the-art methods., Accepted at Computer Vision and Image Understanding (CVIU)

In this paper we show the importance of the head pose estimation in the task of trajectory forecasting. This cue, when produced by an oracle and injected in a novel socially-based energy minimization approach, allows to get state-of-the-art performances on four different forecasting benchmarks, without relying on additional information such as expected destination and desired speed, which are supposed to be know beforehand for most of the current forecasting techniques. Our approach uses the head pose estimation for two aims: 1) to define a view frustum of attention, highlighting the people a given subject is more interested about, in order to avoid collisions; 2) to give a shorttime estimation of what would be the desired destination point. Moreover, we show that when the head pose estimation is given by a real detector, though the performance decreases, it still remains at the level of the top score forecasting systems.

Human ability to foresee the near future plays a key role in everyone's life to prevent potentially dangerous situations. To be able to make predictions is crucial when people have to interact with the surrounding environment. Modeling such capability can lead to the design of automated warning systems and provide moving robots with an intelligent way of interaction with changing situation. In this work we focus on a typical urban human-scene where we aim at predicting an agent's behavior using a stochastic model. In this approach, we fuse the various factors that would contribute to a human motion in different contexts. Our method uses previously observed trajectories to build point-wise circular distributions that after combination, provide a statistical smooth prediction towards the most likely areas. More specifically, a ray-launching procedure, based on a semantic segmentation, gives a coarse scene representation for collision avoidance; a nearly-constant velocity dynamic model smooths the acceleration progression and knowledge of the agent's destination may further steer the path prediction. Experimental results in structured scenes, validate the effectiveness of the method in predicting paths in comparison to actual trajectories.

Human trajectory forecasting in crowds, at its core, is a sequence prediction problem with specific challenges of capturing inter-sequence dependencies (social interactions) and consequently predicting socially-compliant multimodal distributions. In recent years, neural network-based methods have been shown to outperform hand-crafted methods on distance-based metrics. However, these data-driven methods still suffer from one crucial limitation: lack of interpretability. To overcome this limitation, we leverage the power of discrete choice models to learn interpretable rule-based intents, and subsequently utilise the expressibility of neural networks to model scene-specific residual. Extensive experimentation on the interaction-centric benchmark TrajNet++ demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed architecture to explain its predictions without compromising the accuracy., To appear in Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR) 2021