1. Multimorbidity prediction using link prediction
- Author
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Georgios V. Gkoutos, Animesh Acharjee, Dominic Russ, Furqan Aziz, John A. Williams, Samantha C. Pendleton, Victor Roth Cardoso, and Laura Bravo-Merodio
- Subjects
Computer science ,Bioinformatics ,Science ,Machine learning ,computer.software_genre ,Article ,Humans ,Computational models ,Link (knot theory) ,Probabilistic framework ,Probability ,Multidisciplinary ,Recall ,business.industry ,Multimorbidity ,Chronic Disease ,Bipartite graph ,Key (cryptography) ,Benchmark (computing) ,Medicine ,Artificial intelligence ,business ,computer ,Forecasting - Abstract
Multimorbidity, frequently associated with aging, can be operationally defined as the presence of two or more chronic conditions. Predicting the likelihood of a patient with multimorbidity to develop a further particular disease in the future is one of the key challenges in multimorbidity research. In this paper we are using a network-based approach to analyze multimorbidity data and develop methods for predicting diseases that a patient is likely to develop. The multimorbidity data is represented using a temporal bipartite network whose nodes represent patients and diseases and a link between these nodes indicates that the patient has been diagnosed with the disease. Disease prediction then is reduced to a problem of predicting those missing links in the network that are likely to appear in the future. We develop a novel link prediction method for static bipartite network and validate the performance of the method on benchmark datasets. By using a probabilistic framework, we then report on the development of a method for predicting future links in the network, where links are labelled with a time-stamp. We apply the proposed method to three different multimorbidity datasets and report its performance measured by different performance metrics including AUC, Precision, Recall, and F-Score.
- Published
- 2021