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Operations planning in smart grids is likely to become a more complex and demanding task in the next decades. In this paper we show how to formulate the problem of planning short-term load curtailment in a dense urban area, in the presence of uncertainty in electricity demand and in the state of the distribution grid, as a stochastic mixed-integer optimization problem. We propose three rolling-horizon look-ahead policies to approximately solve the optimization problem: a deterministic one and two based on approximate dynamic programming (ADP) techniques. We demonstrate through numerical experiments that the ADP-based policies yield curtailment plans that are more robust on average than the deterministic policy, but at the expense of the additional computational burden needed to calibrate the ADP-based policies. We also show how the worst case performance of the three approximation policies compares with a baseline policy where all curtailable loads are curtailed to the maximum amount possible.

Vehicles, both personal and commercial, have become ubiquitous forms of transportation in the developed world. The auto industry is amidst a technological transformation in identifying alternative sources of energy to power vehicles due to two driving forces: environmental pollution prevention and depletion of fuel resources. This driver for developing “smarter” solutions to create a “smarter planet” is crucial to advancing the science behind electric vehicles (EVs). EVs have been in existence since the mid-19th century, and electric locomotion has been the commonplace in many other vehicle types such as trains. The focus of this chapter is to discuss the feasibility of EVs in smart cities. In particular, the chapter explores the types of EVs, advantages and challenges faced by EVs to penetrate the market, and to outline state-of-the-art research and technologies that are driving the creation of newer and better EVs for adoption in the smart cities of tomorrow.

An important problem in reliability engineering is to predict the failure rate, that is, the frequency with which an engineered system or component fails. This paper presents a new method of estimating failure rate using a semiparametric model with Gaussian process smoothing. The method is able to provide accurate estimation based on historical data and it does not make strong a priori assumptions of failure rate pattern (e.g., constant or monotonic). Our experiments of applying this method in power system failure data compared with other models show its efficacy and accuracy. This method can be used in estimating reliability for many other systems, such as software systems or components.

Power companies can benefit from the use of knowledge discovery methods and statistical machine learning for preventive maintenance. We introduce a general process for transforming historical electrical grid data into models that aim to predict the risk of failures for components and systems. These models can be used directly by power companies to assist with prioritization of maintenance and repair work. Specialized versions of this process are used to produce (1) feeder failure rankings, (2) cable, joint, terminator, and transformer rankings, (3) feeder Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) estimates, and (4) manhole events vulnerability rankings. The process in its most general form can handle diverse, noisy, sources that are historical (static), semi-real-time, or real-time, incorporates state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms for prioritization (supervised ranking or MTBF), and includes an evaluation of results via cross-validation and blind test. Above and beyond the ranked lists and MTBF estimates are business management interfaces that allow the prediction capability to be integrated directly into corporate planning and decision support; such interfaces rely on several important properties of our general modeling approach: that machine learning features are meaningful to domain experts, that the processing of data is transparent, and that prediction results are accurate enough to support sound decision making. We discuss the challenges in working with historical electrical grid data that were not designed for predictive purposes. The “rawness” of these data contrasts with the accuracy of the statistical models that can be obtained from the process; these models are sufficiently accurate to assist in maintaining New York City's electrical grid.

Ranking problems arise in a wide range of real world applications where an ordering on a set of examples is preferred to a classification model. These applications include collaborative filtering, information retrieval and ranking components of a system by susceptibility to failure. In this paper, we present an ongoing project to rank the underground primary feeders of New York City's electrical grid according to their susceptibility to outages. We describe our framework and the application of machine learning ranking methods, using scores from Support Vector Machines (SVM), RankBoost and Martingale Boosting. Finally, we present our experimental results and the lessons learned from this challenging real-world application.

A novel system for extracting information from stereotyped voice traffic is described. Off-the-air recordings of commercial air traffic control communications are interpreted in order to identify the flights present and determine the scenario (e.g., takeoff, landing) that they are following. The system combines algorithms from signal segmentation, speaker segregation, speech recognition, natural language parsing, and topic classification into a single system. Initial evaluation of the algorithm on data recorded at Dallas-Fort Worth airport yields performance of 68% detection of flights with 98% precision at an operating point where 76% of the flight identifications are correctly recognized. In tower recording containing both takeoff and landing scenarios, flights are correctly classified as takeoff or landing 94% of the time. >

We are conducting exploratory research to investigate the instructional issues and educational benefits from introducing both a new paradigm and a new area of applied mathematics into the high school curriculum. The new paradigm is experimental mathematics and the new area is mathematical chaos. By experimental mathematics we mean computer modeling of mathematical processes to gain insight into their structure and behavior so as to inform and guide mathematical inquiry. Mathematical chaos is the study of orderly and chaotic behavior in nonlinear processes and in the real world systems modelled by them. Both depend fundamentally on the use of computers and interactive graphics technology.