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Competing Interests: Disclosure of interest: The authors completed the ICMJE Disclosure of Interest Form (available upon request from the corresponding author) and disclose no relevant interests.

Vulnerability assessments identify vulnerable groups and can promote effective community engagement in responding to and mitigating destabilising events. This scoping review maps assessments for local-level vulnerabilities in the context of infectious threats. We searched various databases for articles written between 1978 and 2019. Eligible documents assessed local-level vulnerability, focusing on infectious threats and antimicrobial resistance. Since few studies provided this dual focus, we included tools from climate change and disaster risk reduction literature that engaged the community in the assessment. We considered studies using a One Health approach as essential for identifying vulnerability risk factors for zoonotic disease affecting humans. Of the 5390 records, we selected 36 articles for review. This scoping review fills a gap regarding vulnerability assessments by combining insights from various approaches: local-level understandings of vulnerability involving community perspectives; studies of social and ecological factors relevant to exposure; and integrated quantitative and qualitative methods that make generalisations based on direct observation. The findings inform the development of new tools to identify vulnerabilities and their relation to social and natural environments., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Competing Interests: Competing interests: The authors completed the ICMJE Unified Competing Interest form (available upon request from the corresponding author), and declare no conflicts of interest.

Human factors, including contact structure, movement, impact on the environment and patterns of behaviour, can have significant influence on the emergence of novel infectious diseases and the transmission and amplification of established ones. As anthropogenic climate change alters natural systems and global economic forces drive land-use and land-cover change, it becomes increasingly important to understand both the ecological and social factors that impact infectious disease outcomes for human populations. While the field of disease ecology explicitly studies the ecological aspects of infectious disease transmission, the effects of the social context on zoonotic pathogen spillover and subsequent human-to-human transmission are comparatively neglected in the literature. The social sciences encompass a variety of disciplines and frameworks for understanding infectious diseases; however, here we focus on four primary areas of social systems that quantitatively and qualitatively contribute to infectious diseases as social-ecological systems. These areas are social mixing and structure, space and mobility, geography and environmental impact, and behaviour and behaviour change. Incorporation of these social factors requires empirical studies for parametrization, phenomena characterization and integrated theoretical modelling of social-ecological interactions. The social-ecological system that dictates infectious disease dynamics is a complex system rich in interacting variables with dynamically significant heterogeneous properties. Future discussions about infectious disease spillover and transmission in human populations need to address the social context that affects particular disease systems by identifying and measuring qualitatively important drivers.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'., (© 2017 The Author(s).)

"Crude birth, death and marriage rates are examined for [Austria's] Croatian military defence zone and 'cordon sanitaire' against Turkey for the period 1830-1847.... The data suggest that between about one and four fifths of the variance in long term swings and in annual fluctuations from the moving averages of birth, death, and nuptiality rates can be explained by a combination of linear trend over time, an epidemic year, and primarily three economic indicators: grain lagged by one year, grain in the report year (perhaps as a proxy for other plant production), and livestock in the report year." (summary in ENG), (excerpt)

The Ford Foundation's increase, by almost one-fourth, of support to higher education is intended to reinvigorate college teaching, especially in the social sciences, and to improve opportunities for minority group faculty. Other new foundation efforts include support of a program to assist victims of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS). (MSE)

Bats are diverse mammals that are globally distributed and ecologically critical, yet some bat species are associated with disease agents that have severe consequences for human health. Disease outbreak responses require interdisciplinary knowledge of bat-associated pathogens and microbial transmission patterns. Health promotion requires close, collaborative attention to the needs, vulnerabilities, and interests of diverse stakeholders, including the public and professionals in public health, conservation, ecology, social science, communication, and policy. This article describes a successful One Health engagement among such stakeholders and partners looking to motivate both bat-human ecology preservation and viral disease management in Uganda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is the latest but not the first deadly pathogen to jump from animals to humans. The history of pandemics is replete with such events. The convergence of animal health, human health, and ecosystem health is a twenty-first century reality, as human activities that drive climate change also contribute to pandemic risk. Understanding the past and future of zoonotic diseases requires new models in the way we research human-animal-environment interconnections. This bibliographic essay discusses the historical development of these zoonotic diseases and incorporates sources from the history of science and medicine, environmental science, animal science, disease ecology, politics, and anthropology. Contributing to deeper understandings of zoonotic diseases, historians and anthropologists have viewed pandemics as social and biological phenomena. However, viewpoints differ whether scholars routinely examine disease links between animals and humans. These links include the ecological aspects of infectious diseases' history and the role of wildlife as vectors of zoonotic disease. In addition, challenges persist in integrating social sciences and humanities, the environmental sector, and scientific research. Ideally, historiographies of zoonotic diseases would include societies' responses and the social, cultural, political, economic, and ecological contexts. This bibliographic essay assembles resources that would benefit such an integrated approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an introduction to the history of the concept of "emerging infectious diseases" (EID) and reflects on how humanities and social science scholars have interacted with it. It starts with a chronological outline of the coinage of the concept in the early 1990s in the wake of the shocks provoked by Ebola and HIV/AIDS, which disrupted the idea that the West was transitioning from a period of infectious diseases to one of chronic diseases. We argue that humanities and social science scholars in disciplines such as history, anthropology, STS, and literature studies have critically explored the concept, showing how entrenched it was in the perceptions of the US and Europe about threats posed by the rest of the globe. Moreover, we explore how scholars in the humanities have used the EID concept to comment on contemporary realities and mobilized it to create dialogues with scientists, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Subsequently, we explore how the growing contemporary interest in EID has pushed historians to research the ontological and epistemological factors that enabled the "emergence" of diseases long before the invention of the EID concept, such as plague, Chagas disease, and sleeping sickness, as well as the factors that transformed these and other emerging diseases into pandemics. We conclude by outlining a few neglected factors in the EID literature that could be addressed: the circulation and reception of the concept outside of the West, the examination of EID as a problem for wild animals and not just for humans, and global histories of disease emergence as an epistemological and social process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports that the need for such a manual was felt as early as 2015, when an Ebola virus epidemic in West Africa mobilized social scientists in Africa and Europe. Topics include examines during this epidemic, French-speaking researchers created the West African Human and Social Sciences Network on Ebola, which became the Anthropology of Emerging Epidemics Network, to share their knowledge, their thoughts and their questions about engagement in an epidemic crisis situation.

Globalization has secured prosperity and has created new opportunities for human development in almost each segment of our modern international community. The 21st century world is dynamic, fast-paced, and greatly interconnected, which makes even the most isolated communities in the world susceptible to global influences. Unfortunately, these influences are not always desirable and positive. History has shown us that increased traffic of people and goods, as well as the rapid social changes caused by globalization, have expanded the list of non-military global security threats, including the threat to health security. Despite the extraordinary medical developments, diseases, especially communicable diseases, have proven to be one of humankind’s most dangerous challenges. Some of the factors contributing to the global spread of previously eradicated or localized diseases are lifestyle and social changes, global population growth, crowding in cities and metropolitan areas in certain parts of the world, and mass human migrations, to name a few. These also contribute to the wide array of communicable diseases, the number of which is changing rapidly. Within the international community, human health is connected on a global scale. Globalization has become a lead cause for global health hazards, and the COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated that communicable diseases know no boundaries and their rapid spread can impact all aspects of society. Thus, the response to such outbreaks needs to be swift, precise, and globally uniform, prompting global activities and efforts to achieve global goals in the prevention and management of communicable diseases.

While communicable diseases are still a major problem for most developing countries; noncommunicable diseases which were once considered diseases of the white and wealthy people, have also started to haunt developing countries thus adding to the existing burden of dealing with noncommunicable diseases. Increased physical inactivity and a lack of physical exercising culture in most developing countries have worked to promote an increase in the occurrence of non communicable diseases. This study sought to assess the barriers and enablers of physical exercising amongst formally employed women in Zimbabwe‟s urban areas. This case study was conducted in Marondera urban and it employed a mixed methodology approach. Data were collected from 50 working women and two key informants who were selected using a combination of purposive and simple random sampling techniques. To analyse the data, tabulation, descriptive statistics and thematic analysis were used. Questionnaires were used to gather data from the women participants and interviews were used to gather data from one gym owner and one medical doctor. The study obtained that working women in Marondera are not engaged in any meaningful exercising despite the fact that they are knowledgeable of its benefits. This study recommends that employers and workers‟ associations incorporate physical activity and exercise programmes into existing workplace safety and health policies and programmes.

Social stress and inflammatory processes are strong regulators of one another. Considerable evidence shows that social threats trigger inflammatory responses that increase infection susceptibility in both humans and animals, while infectious disease triggers inflammation that in turn regulates social behaviours. However, no previous study has examined whether young children’s popularity and their rate of infectious disease are associated. We investigated the longitudinal bidirectional links between children’s popularity status as perceived by peers, and parent reports of a variety of infectious diseases that are common in early childhood (i.e. common cold as well as eye, ear, throat, lung and gastric infections). We used data from the ‘Matter of the First Friendship Study’ (MOFF), a longitudinal prospective multi-informant study, following 579 Norwegian pre-schoolers (292 girls, median age at baseline = six years) with annual assessments over a period of three years. Social network analysis was used to estimate each child’s level of popularity. Cross-lagged autoregressive analyses revealed negative dose–response relations between children’s popularity scores and subsequent infection (b = –0.18, CI = –0.29, –0.06, and b = –0.13, CI = –0.23, –0.03). In conclusion, the results suggest that children who are unpopular in early childhood are at increased risk of contracting infection the following year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although trachoma causes more cases of preventable blindness than any other infectious disease, a combination of strategies is reducing its global prevalence. As a district moves toward eliminating trachoma as a public health problem, national programs conduct trachoma impact surveys (TIS) to assess whether to stop preventative interventions and trachoma surveillance surveys (TSS) to determine whether the prevalence of active trachoma has rebounded after interventions have halted. In some contexts, programs also conduct trachomatous trichiasis (TT)-only surveys. A few costing studies of trachoma prevalence surveys exist, but none examine TIS, TSS, or TT-only surveys. Methodology/Principal findings: We assessed the incremental financial cost to the national program of TIS, TSS, and TT-only surveys, which are standardized cluster-sampled prevalence surveys. We conducted a retrospective review of expenditures and grant disbursements for TIS and TSS in 322 evaluation units in 11 countries between 2011 and 2018. We also assessed the costs of three pilot and five standard TT-only surveys in four countries between 2017 and 2018. The median cost of TIS and TSS was $8,298 per evaluation unit [interquartile range (IQR): $6,532–$10,111, 2017 USD]. Based on a linear regression with bootstrapped confidence intervals, after controlling for country, costs per survey did not change significantly over time but did decline by $83 per survey implemented in a single round (95% CI: -$108 –-$63). Of total costs, 80% went to survey fieldwork; of that, 58% went towards per diems and 38% towards travel. TT-only surveys cost a median of $9,707 (IQR: $8,537–$11,635); within a given country, they cost slightly more (106% [IQR: 94%–136%]) than TIS and TSS. Conclusions/Significance: The World Health Organization requires trachoma prevalence estimates for validating the elimination of trachoma as a public health problem. This study will help programs improve their planning as they assemble resources for that effort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the evaluation of infectious-diseases interventions, the transmissible nature of such diseases plays a central role. Agent-based models (ABM) allow for dynamic transmission modeling but publications are limited. We aim to provide an overview of important characteristics of ABM for decision-analytic modeling of infectious diseases. A case study of dengue epidemics illustrates model characteristics, conceptualization, calibration and model analysis. First, major characteristics of ABM are outlined and discussed based on ISPOR and ISPOR-SMDM Good Practice guidelines. Second, in our case study, we modeled a dengue outbreak in Cebu City (Philippines) to assess the impact interventions to control the relative growth of the mosquito population. Model outcomes include prevalence and incidence of infected persons. The modular ABM simulates persons and mosquitoes over an annual time horizon considering daily time steps. The model was calibrated and validated. ABM is a dynamic, individual-level modeling approach that is capable to reproduce direct and indirect effects of interventions for infectious diseases. The ability to replicate emerging behavior and to include human behavior or the behavior of other agents is a distinguishing modeling characteristic (e.g., compared to Markov models). Modeling behavior may, however, require extensive calibration and validation. The analyzed hypothetical effectiveness of dengue interventions showed that a reduced human-mosquito ratio of 1:2.5 during rainy seasons leads already to a substantial decrease of infected persons. ABM can support decision-analyses for infectious diseases including disease dynamics, emerging behavior, and providing a high level of reusability due to modularity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: French Guiana, a French overseas department located in South America between Brazil and Surinam, is the only European territory geographically located in the Amazonian forest complex and is considered endemic for yellow fever (YF). In the context of the emergent threat of YF in Latin America, we conducted a large household cross-sectional survey from June to October 2017 to estimate vaccination coverage in the population and to determine associations with sociodemographic and geographical characteristics. Methodology/Principal findings: In total, 1,415 households and 2,697 individuals were included from the 22 municipalities of French Guiana. YF vaccination coverage was estimated at 95.0% (95% CI: 93.4–96.2) in the entire territory but was spatially heterogeneous, with the lowest levels estimated in the western part of the territory along the Surinamese cross-border region, particularly in children under 16 years who were not enrolled in school, immigrant adults and disadvantaged populations with low socioeconomic indexes. Conclusions/Significance: Despite the good vaccination coverage against YF in the general population of French Guiana resulting from the compulsory nature of YF vaccination for residents and travelers, there is an urgent need to improve vaccination coverage in vulnerable populations living in the northwestern part of the territory to limit the risk of transmission in the context of the emerging YF threat in South America. Despite the relative rarity of YF and the significant number of infectious and tropical diseases in French Guiana, clinicians should adopt a high index of suspicion for YF, particularly in vulnerable and at-risk populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Addressing critical global health issues, such as antimicrobial resistance, infectious disease outbreaks, and natural disasters, requires strong coordination and management across sectors. The One Health approach is the integrative effort of multiple sectors working to attain optimal health for people, animals, and the environment, and is increasingly recognized by experts as a means to address complex challenges. However, practical application of the One Health approach has been challenging. The One Health Systems Mapping and Analysis Resource Toolkit (OH-SMART) introduced in this paper was designed using a multistage prototyping process to support systematic improvement in multi-sectoral coordination and collaboration to better address complex health concerns through an operational, stepwise, and practical One Health approach. To date, OH-SMART has been used to strengthen One Health systems in 17 countries and has been deployed to revise emergency response frameworks, improve antimicrobial resistance national action plans and create multi agency infectious disease collaboration protocols. OH-SMART has proven to be user friendly, robust, and capable of fostering multi-sectoral collaboration and complex system-wide problem solving. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Infectious diseases might affect cognitive aging and dementia risk, possibly via neuroinflammation. Similarly, risk factors for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases are associated with cognitive function and dementia. We hypothesized that cardiovascular risk factors moderate the association of exposure to infectious diseases with cognitive function. Methods: We studied 5662 participants aged 20 to 59 years from the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988–1994) in the United States. We used linear regression to investigate whether the Framingham general cardiovascular risk index moderated the association of infection burden based on exposure to eight different infectious diseases with cognitive functioning as measured by the Symbol Digit Substitution, Serial Digit Learning, and Reaction Time tests. Results: The multiplicative interaction between the infection-burden index and the cardiovascular-risk index was associated with performance on the Symbol Digit Substitution (B = .019 [95% CI: .008, .031], p < .001) but not on the Serial Digit Learning (B = .034 [95% CI: -.025, .094]) or for Reaction Time (B = -.030 [95% CI: -.848, .787]). Participants with a lower cardiovascular risk appeared to be more resilient against the potential adverse effects of higher infection burden on the Symbol Digit Substitution task. Conclusions: Participants at zero risk for a cardiovascular event in the next 10 years had no differences in processing speed with increasing exposure to infectious disease, whereas participants with higher risk for a cardiovascular event had worse processing speed with increased exposure to infectious disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tuberculosis remains a major public-health problem in the world, despite several efforts to improve case identification and treatment compliance. It is well known cause of ill-health among millions of people each year and ranks as the second leading cause of death from infectious disease worldwide. Despite implementation of the World health organization recommended strategy, the reductions in the incidence of TB have been minimal in high burden countries. Objectives and methods: A case control study was carried out to assess the risk factors of TB, where cases were newly registered bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary TB patients with age greater than 15 years who present at twenty health centres in Addis Ababa. Controls were age and sex matched attendees who presented in the same health centers for non-TB health problems. Results: A total of 260 cases and 260 controls were enrolled in the study and 45.8% of cases and 46.2% of controls were in the 26–45 years age bracket. According to the multivariable logistic regression analysis, seven variables were found to be independent predictors for the occurrence of TB after controlling possible confounders. Patients who live in house with no window or one window were almost two times more likely to develop tuberculosis compared to people whose house has multiple windows (AOR = 1.81; 95% CI:1.06, 3.07). Previous history of hospital admission was found to pose risk almost more than three times (AOR = 3.39; 95% CI: 1.64–7.03). Having a household member who had TB was shown to increase risk of developing TB by three fold (AOR = 3.00; 95% CI: 1.60, 5.62). The study showed that illiterate TB patients were found to be more than twice more likely to develop TB compared to subjects who can atleast read and write (AOR, 95% CI = 2.15, 1.05, 4.40). Patients with household income of less than 1000 birrs per month were more than two times more likely to develop TB compared to those who had higher income (AOR = 2.2; 95% CI: 1.28, 3.78). Smoking has also been identified as important risk factor for developing TB by four times (AOR = 4.43; 95% CI: 2.10, 9.3). BCG was found to be protective against TB reducing the risk by one-third (AOR = 0.34; 95% CI: 0.22, 0.54). Conclusion: This study showed that TB is more common among the most agile and economically active age group, and number of windows, history of hospital admission, a household member who had TB, illiteracy, low household income and smoking and lack of BCG scar were identified as independent risk factors. Therefore it is imperative that the TB control effort need a strategy to address socio economic issues such as poverty, overcrowding, smoking, and infection control at health care facilities level is an important intervention to prevent transmission of TB within the facilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Dengue fever is a rapidly growing public health problem in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics in the world. While there are existing studies on the economic burden of dengue fever in some of dengue-endemic countries, cost components are often not standardized, making cross-country comparisons challenging. Furthermore, no such studies have been available in Africa. Methods/Principal findings: A patient-specific survey questionnaire was developed and applied in Burkina Faso, Kenya, and Cambodia in a standardized format. Multiple interviews were carried out in order to capture the entire cost incurred during the period of dengue illness. Both private (patient’s out-of-pocket) and public (non-private) expenditure were accessed to understand how the economic burden of dengue is distributed between private and non-private payers. A substantial number of dengue-confirmed patients were identified in all three countries: 414 in Burkina Faso, 149 in Kenya, and 254 in Cambodia. The average cost of illness for dengue fever was $26 (95% CI $23-$29) and $134 (95% CI $119-$152) per inpatient in Burkina Faso and Cambodia, respectively. In the case of outpatients, the average economic burden per episode was $13 (95% CI $23-$29) in Burkina Faso and $23 (95% CI $19-$28) in Kenya. Compared to Cambodia, public contributions were trivial in Burkina Faso and Kenya, reflecting that a majority of medical costs had to be directly borne by patients in the two countries. Conclusions/Significance: The cost of illness for dengue fever is significant in the three countries. In particular, the current study sheds light on the potential economic burden of the disease in Burkina Faso and Kenya where existing evidence is sparse in the context of dengue fever, and underscores the need to achieve Universal Health Coverage. Given the availability of the current (CYD-TDV) and second-generation dengue vaccines in the near future, our study outcomes can be used to guide decision makers in setting health policy priorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the absence of detailed information about the population size and behaviour data of men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM), the estimation of prevalence rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and the design of public health interventions become difficult. The aim of the present study is to estimate the lower boundary of age-specific population sizes and retrieve self-reported information from this population. Methods: We used publicly accessible data from a large online dating and social network website for MSM in Germany to retrieve data on the age and regional distribution of profiles. The profiles were also stratified by their information on the preferred position during anal intercourse, safer sex, and sexual identity. Results: A total of 464,873 user profiles correspond to an average 15.2 profiles per 1,000 male inhabitants in Germany, varying between 7.6 and 45.6 across federal states. Although the information on the absolute numbers for different age groups is limited by the search engine, age-specific relative frequencies were found to increase from 12.9 in the age group of 18 to 20 year olds to 24.6 profiles per 1,000 male inhabitants in the 28 to 30 year olds. The data shows age-specific trends for safer sex with an increasing easiness of reporting “never” engaging in safer sex or stating that safer sex “needs discussion” with increasing age. Around one third of profile owners stated to be versatile with respect to the preferred position in anal intercourse. All other options (“only bottom”, “more bottom”, “only top”, “more top”) were preferred equally likely by roughly 10% of profile owners, respectively. Conclusions: Online social network or dating sites can provide some information about specific populations in the absence of other data sources. The presented results are the first to report age-specific rates of MSM per 1,000 male inhabitants in Germany and may be useful to estimate age-specific prevalence or incidence rates as well as to inform health promotion activities and modelling studies for MSM in Germany. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research has examined empathic concern by presenting toddlers with a sad stimulus and examining their emotional response, with the conclusion that toddlers display empathy. Yet, such research has failed to include basic control conditions involving some other aversive stimulus such as white noise. Nor has it compared toddlers to adults to examine potential development in empathy. In the present study, we showed toddlers and adults four video types: infant crying, infant laughing, infant babbling, and a neutral infant accompanied by white noise. We then coded happiness and sadness while viewing the videos, and created a difference score (happiness minus sadness), testing 52 toddlers and 61 adults. Whereas adults showed more sadness towards infant crying than any other stimulus, toddlers’ response to crying and white noise was similar. Thus, the toddler response to crying was comparable to previous studies (slight sadness), but was no different to white noise and was significantly reduced relative to adults. As such, toddlers’ response seemed to be better characterized as a reaction to an aversive stimulus rather than empathy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Though Nepal declared leprosy elimination in 2010, its burden is constantly rising in Terai communities for the past 2 years with 3000 new leprosy cases being diagnosed annually. Community’s perception is important for prevention and control of leprosy and enhancing quality of life of leprosy patients. Poor knowledge, unfavorable attitude and stigma create a hindrance to leprosy control. The main objective of this study was to assess the knowledge, attitude and stigma of leprosy amongst the community members living in Dhanusha and Parsa districts of Southern Central Nepal. Methods: A total of 423 individuals were interviewed using a structured questionnaire in Dhanusha and Parsa districts. Data was analyzed using both descriptive (frequency, percentage, median) and statistical inferences (Chi-square test, Kruskal Wallis H test, Mann Whitney U test, binary logistic regression) using SPSSvs20. Results: All respondents had heard about leprosy. Source of information on leprosy was mainly found to be health workers/hospitals (33.1%). Only 62.6% reported bacteria being its cause followed by other myths such as bad blood/curse/heredity/bad deeds (36%). Only 43.8% responded that leprosy is transmitted by prolonged close contact with leprosy patients and 25.7% reported religious rituals as the treatment. Only 42.1% had good knowledge and 40.9% had favorable attitude. Good knowledge of leprosy was highly associated with favorable attitude towards leprosy (P<0.001). The outcome variables- knowledge, attitude and EMIC score were found to have highly significant association with age, sex, ethnicity, religion, education and occupation of the respondents (P<0.001). Having knowledge on leprosy transmission was positively associated with favorable attitude towards leprosy (P<0.001). Conclusions: Strategizing the awareness programmes according to socio-demographic characteristics for enhancing the knowledge regarding leprosy cause, symptoms, transmission, prevention and treatment, can foster the positive community attitude towards leprosy affected persons. Enhancing positive attitude towards leprosy affected persons can reduce the community stigma, thus may increase their participation in the community. Positive attitude may further increase their early health seeking behaviour including their quality of life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agent-based models are a tool that can be used to better understand the dynamics of an infectious disease outbreak. An infectious disease outbreak is influenced by many factors including vaccination or immunity levels, population density, and the age structure of the population. We hypothesize that these factors along with interactions of factors and the actions of individuals would lead to outbreaks of different size and severity even in two towns that appear similar on paper. Thus, it is necessary to implement a model that is able to capture these interactions and the actions of individuals. Using openly available data we create a data-driven agent-based model to simulate the spread of an airborne infectious disease in an Irish town. Agent-based models have been known to produce results that include the emergence of patterns and behaviours that are not directly programmed into the model. Our model is tested by simulating an outbreak of measles that occurred in Schull, Ireland in 2012. We simulate the same outbreak in 33 different towns and look at the correlations between the model results and the town characteristics (population, area, vaccination rates, age structure) to determine if the results of the model are affected by interactions of those town characteristics and the decisions on the agents in the model. As expected our results show that the outbreaks are not strongly correlated with any of the main characteristics of the towns and thus the model is most likely capturing such interactions and the agent-based model is successful in capturing the differences in the outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Respondent-driven detection is a chain recruitment method used to sample contact persons of infected persons in order to enhance case finding. It starts with initial individuals, so-called seeds, who are invited for participation. Afterwards, seeds receive a fixed number of coupons to invite individuals with whom they had contact during a specific time period. Recruitees are then asked to do the same, resulting in successive waves of contact persons who are connected in one recruitment tree. However, often the majority of participants fail to invite others, or invitees do not accept an invitation, and recruitment stops after several waves. A mathematical model can help to analyse how various factors influence peer recruitment and to understand under which circumstances sustainable recruitment is possible. We implemented a stochastic simulation model, where parameters were suggested by empirical data from an online survey, to determine the thresholds for obtaining large recruitment trees and the number of waves needed to reach a steady state in the sample composition for individual characteristics. We also examined the relationship between mean and variance of the number of invitations sent out by participants and the probability of obtaining a large recruitment tree. Our main finding is that a situation where participants send out any number of coupons between one and the maximum number is more effective in reaching large recruitment trees, compared to a situation where the majority of participants does not send out any invitations and a smaller group sends out the maximum number of invitations. The presented model is a helpful tool that can assist public health professionals in preparing research and contact tracing using online respondent-driven detection. In particular, it can provide information on the required minimum number of successfully sent invitations to reach large recruitment trees, a certain sample composition or certain number of waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we present a family of models that allows us to estimate egos’ unobserved action dispositions from a joint behavioural outcome of a dyadic social interaction process of both egos’ and alters’ action dispositions. The method is put to test on a data set containing two different types of dyadic activities of high relevance for the spread of sexually transmitted infections (STI), condom use and anal sex. The data consists of individuals older than 15 years old who visited one of the nine youth clinics in the Vastra Gotaland region of Sweden between February 2010 and March 2011 for STI testing. This is hence a group of special interest for STI interventions. We cannot find any difference in condom disposition between women and men. Condoms are initially used more often in less risky types of relationships, especially if the partner ends up as a main partner. When studying the disposition towards anal sex we do however find a difference between men and women. Women are more against practising anal sex than men while the majority of men are neutral towards anal sex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To evaluate initial reported willingness to participate in a hypothetical HIV vaccine clinical trial and actual participation of volunteers in a longitudinal observational study. Methods: We recruited HIV negative male and female volunteers aged 18–45 years into a longitudinal observational study at KAVI–ICR Kangemi in Kenya, to serve as a pool from which to draw participants into a phase I HIV vaccine clinical trial. A structured questionnaire was used to collect information regarding willingness to join a HIV vaccine clinical trial in the future. Study follow-up visits were every 6 months. Results: A total of 105 participants were screened and 100 (M46:F54) were enrolled into the observational study. Ninety- four per cent of those enrolled expressed willingness to participate in a future HIV vaccine trial. Altruism and desire to learn the body’s response to the vaccine were the most motivating factors at 40% and 25% respectively. At the onset of a 40-person phase I HIV vaccine trial, 86 observational study participants who had previously expressed willingness to participate were contacted but only 26 (30%) came for information. All 26 consented to participate and after screening for eligibility, 24 were eligible. Of the 24, 15 were enrolled. These numbers were not adequate; hence the vaccine trial employed other recruitment methods to meet the deficit. Conclusion: Observational “pools” of cohorts may not provide adequate number of participants into vaccine clinical trials even if they report willingness; therefore supplementary recruitment methods such as direct community recruitment, passive approach, and snowballing need to be in place. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Improving patients’ tuberculosis (TB) knowledge is a salient component of TB control strategies. Patient knowledge of TB may encourage infection prevention behaviors and improve treatment adherence. The purpose of this study is to examine how TB knowledge and infection prevention behaviors change over the course of treatment. Methods: A matched patient-health worker dataset (n = 6,031) of publicly treated TB patients with NGO-provided treatment support health workers was compiled in nine Indian cities from March 2013 to September 2014. At the beginning and end of TB treatment, patients were asked about their knowledge of TB symptoms, transmission, and treatment and infection prevention behaviors. Results: Patients beginning TB treatment (n = 3,424) demonstrated moderate knowledge of TB; 52.5% (50.8%, 54.2%) knew that cough was a symptom of TB and 67.2% (65.6%, 68.7%) knew that TB was communicable. Overall patient knowledge was significantly associated with literacy, education, and income, and was higher at the end of treatment than at the beginning (3.7%, CI: 3.02%, 4.47%). Infection prevention behaviors like covering a cough (63.4%, CI: 61.2%, 65.0%) and sleeping separately (19.3%, CI: 18.0%, 20.7%) were less prevalent. The age difference between patient and health worker as well as a shared language significantly predicted patient knowledge and adherence to infection prevention behaviors. Conclusions: Social proximity between health worker and patients predicted greater knowledge and adherence to infection prevention behaviors but the latter rate remains undesirably low. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Early and accurate diagnosis of tuberculosis is a priority for TB programs globally to initiate treatment early and improve treatment outcomes. Currently, Ziehl–Neelsen (ZN) stain-based microscopy, GeneXpert and Light Emitting Diode-Fluorescence Microscopy (LED-FM) are used for diagnosing pulmonary drug sensitive tuberculosis. Published evidence synthesising the cost-effectiveness of these diagnostic tools is scarce. Methodology: PubMed, EMBASE and Cost-effectiveness analysis registry were searched for studies that reported on the cost-effectiveness of GeneXpert and LED-FM, compared to ZN microscopy for diagnosing pulmonary TB. Risk of bias was assessed independently by four authors using the Consensus Health Economic Criteria (CHEC) extended checklist. The data variables included the study settings, population, type of intervention, type of comparator, year of study, duration of study, type of study design, costs for the test and the comparator and effectiveness indicators. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was used for assessing the relative cost-effectiveness in this review. Results: Of the 496 studies identified by the search, thirteen studies were included after removing duplicates and studies that did not fulfil inclusion criteria. Four studies compared LED-FM with ZN and nine studies compared GeneXpert with ZN. Three studies used patient cohorts and eight were modelling studies with hypothetical cohorts used to evaluate cost-effectiveness. All these studies were conducted from a health system perspective, with four studies utilising cost utility analysis. There were considerable variations in costing parameters and effectiveness indicators that precluded meta-analysis. The key findings from the included studies suggest that LED-FM and GeneXpert may be cost effective for pulmonary TB diagnosis from a health system perspective. Conclusion: Our review identifies a consistent trend of the cost effectiveness of LED-FM and GeneXpert for pulmonary TB diagnosis in different countries with diverse context of socio-economic condition, HIV burden and geographical distribution. However, all the studies used different parameters to estimate the impact of these tools and this underscores the need for improving the methodological issues related to the conduct and reporting of cost-effectiveness studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The obesity epidemic is spreading rapidly in Guatemala, a low/middle income country still struggling with undernutrition. Sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) consumption is strongly associated with overweight, obesity, and non-communicable diseases. In Guatemala, SSBs are readily available and consumption is high, particularly among adolescents. SSB taxes have been proposed as a cost-effective way to reduce consumption and generate revenues for public health, as has been demonstrated in several countries around the world. Objective: To estimate the price, expenditure, quality, and cross-price elasticity of beverage demand using household survey data. Method: We conducted a secondary analysis on the 2014 Guatemala Living Conditions National Survey that includes national representative household data on expenditure. Own price, expenditure, quality, and cross-price elasticities of milk, soft drinks, packaged juices, and bottled water were estimated using Deaton’s Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS), controlling for goods’ quality. Household characteristics and beverage expenditure are summarized for urban and rural locations using descriptive statistics. Results: Positive expenditure on soft drinks was highest (50.9% of households). Positive expenditure on bottled water was next for urban households (43.8%) and lowest for rural households (10.8%). Own-price elasticities for all beverages are negative and statistically significant. Own-price elasticity of soft drinks is -1.39, suggesting that with a 10% increase in price, consumption would decrease by 13.9%. Expenditure elasticity for soft drinks (0.99) suggests that a 10% household expenditure increase would result in a 9.9% increase in demand. Milk (0.07) and soft drinks (0.07) have positive quality elasticity implying that, as household total expenditure increases, the quality of these beverages, measured by their unit values, also increases. Conclusion: Soft drink demand is highly sensitive to changes in prices, suggesting that SSB taxes could significantly reduce consumption, which, in turn, could contribute to curbing the overweight/obesity epidemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Financial protection is a key dimension of universal health coverage. Catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) has increased in India over time. The overall figures mask the subnational heterogeneity crucial for designing insurance coverage for 1.3 billion population across India. We estimated CHE in every state of India and the changes over a decade. Methods: We used National Sample Survey data on health care utilisation in 2004 and 2014. The states were placed in four groups based on epidemiological transition level (ETL), defined on the basis of ratio of disability-adjusted life-years from communicable diseases to those from non-communicable diseases and injuries combined, with a low ratio denoting high ETL state group. CHE was defined as the proportion of households that had out-of-pocket payments for health care equalling or exceeding 10% of the household expenditure. We assessed variation in the magnitude and distribution of CHE between ETL state groups and between states of India. Results: In 2014, CHE was higher in the high (30.3%, 95% confidence interval: 28.5 to 32.1) and higher-middle (27.4%, 26.3 to 28.6) ETL state groups than the low (21.8%, 20.8 to 22.8) and lower-middle (19.0%, 17.1 to 21.0) groups. From 2004 to 2014, CHE increased only in the high and higher-middle ETL groups (1.19 and 1.34 times, respectively). However, the individual states with substantial increase in CHE were spread across all ETL groups. The gap between the highest CHE of an individual state and the lowest was 8-fold in 2014. CHE was disproportionately concentrated among the rich in 2004 for most of India, but in 2014 CHE was distributed equally among the rich and poor because of the substantial increase in CHE among the poor over time. Conclusions: Better provision of quality health care should be accompanied by financial protection measures to safeguard the poor from increasing CHE in India. The state-specific CHE trends can provide useful input for the planning of the recently launched National Health Protection Mission such that it meets the requirement of each state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In sports, success and failure are believed to be contagious. Yet it is unclear what might cause contagion. This study investigated whether motor contagion is associated with the active observation of the kinematic actions of others. In Experiment 1, six skilled hammer throwers threw a hammer after watching a video of a model throwing toward the left, center, or right. The video included two types of action kinematics which resulted in throw directions that were either easy or difficult to predict based on the model’s kinematics. In Experiment 2, the athletes threw hammers after watching the same stimuli as Experiment 1, but while engaging in one of two types of focus (self-focus or non-self-focus) to determine whether motor contagion could be diminished. Results demonstrated that the direction of each participant’s throw was more influenced by the videos that contained easy action kinematics, supporting a critical role for the meaningfulness of the link between an action and its outcome in producing motor contagion. Motion analysis revealed that motor contagion was not likely to be a result of the observer imitating the model’s action kinematics. The contagion observed in Experiment 1 disappeared when participants engaged in self-focus. These results suggest that motor contagion is influenced by the predictability of an action outcome when observing an action, and that motor contagion can be inhibited through self-focus when observing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In addition to improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) measures and optimal case management, the introduction of Oral cholera vaccine (OCV) is a complementary strategy for cholera prevention and control for vulnerable population groups. In October 2016, the Mozambique Ministry of Health implemented a mass vaccination campaign using a two-dose regimen of the Shanchol™ OCV in six high-risk neighborhoods of Nampula city, in Northern Mozambique. Overall 193,403 people were targeted by the campaign, which used a door-to-door strategy. During campaign follow-up, a population survey was conducted to assess: (1) OCV coverage; (2) frequency of adverse events following immunization; (3) vaccine acceptability and (4) reasons for non-vaccination. Methodology/Principal findings: In the absence of a household listing and clear administrative neighborhood delimitations, we used geospatial technology to select households from satellite images and used the support of community leaders. One person per household was randomly selected for interview. In total, 636 individuals were enrolled in the survey. The overall vaccination coverage with at least one dose (including card and oral reporting) was 69.5% (95%CI: 51.2–88.2) and the two-dose coverage was 51.2% (95%CI: 37.9–64.3). The campaign was well accepted. Among the 185 non-vaccinated individuals, 83 (44.6%) did not take the vaccine because they were absent when the vaccination team visited their houses. Among the 451 vaccinated individuals, 47 (10%) reported minor and non-specific complaints, and 78 (17.3%) mentioned they did not receive any information before the campaign. Conclusions/Significance: In spite of overall coverage being slightly lower than expected, the use of a mobile door-to-door strategy remains a viable option even in densely-populated urban settings. Our results suggest that campaigns can be successfully implemented and well accepted in Mozambique in non-emergency contexts in order to prevent cholera outbreaks. These findings are encouraging and complement the previous Mozambican experience related to OCV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hepatitis A is caused by hepatitis A virus and occurs worldwide. Estimating the transmissibility, which is usually characterized by the basic reproductive number R0, the mean number of secondary infectious cases generated by a single primary infectious case introduced into a totally susceptible population, provides crucial information for the effort required to stop infection spreading. Hepatitis A virus is usually transmitted indirectly through contaminated food and environment. An outbreak from March to June 2011 was reported to have occurred at an elementary school of 698 pupils in China and it was found that the outbreak was due to direct transmission between school children. Based on the symptom onset date and the social contact network of the children, in this study we estimate the serial interval (i.e. the gap in symptom onset between an infectee and its infector) and use different statistical methods to estimate R0. Combining with the positivity of IgG antibodies tests, we develop a compartmental transmission dynamics model which includes both asymptomatic and symptomatic infections to estimate the overall R0. Our analysis suggests a serial interval of mean = 23.9 days and standard deviation = 20.9 days. The different statistical methods suggest estimates for R0 in the outbreak varying from 2.1 to 2.8, and the estimates from the transmission dynamics model are consistent with this range. Our estimates are in agreement with that from one study in England but are higher than that from one study in the United States. Our transmission dynamics model suggests that the proportion of symptomatic infections is about 9%, implying that there were about 344 asymptomatic infections along with the 32 observed symptomatic cases. Furthermore, it is shown that the inclusion of asymptomatic infection in the epidemic process increases the estimate of R0 but does not do so greatly provided that the proportion of symptomatic infections is constant over the outbreak and there is no difference in transmissibility between symptomatic and asymptomatic infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Assessment of attitude of health care professionals is important as negative attitude could constitute a major deterrent to care-seeking by persons affected by neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) such as leprosy. Leprosy continues to pose a major disease burden in India with an annual new case detection rate of 10.17 per 100,000 population. This paper reports on the development and validation of a culturally appropriate scale to measure attitude of health care providers (HCPs) towards persons affected by leprosy in Tamil Nadu, India. Methodology/Principal findings: The Affective, Behavioural and Cognitive (ABC) model of attitudes guided the development of the scale. Steps in scale development included qualitative interviews and focus group discussions with medical officers and paramedical staffs selected from high prevalence districts in Tamil Nadu, India which informed the development of the draft scale. Reviews of existing attitude questionnaires in related areas further contributed to scale development and together helped to generate a large pool of items which was then subjected to Thurston’s scaling method for selection of items from this pool. Face and content validity were obtained, following which internal consistency and test, re-test reliability were assessed. Scaling exercise resulted in 11 items being discarded from an initial pool of 38, owing to the poor agreement among experts regarding relevance. Face and content validity were good with experts endorsing relevance and applicability of items. The intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) for test re-test reliability of the 27 item scale was 0.6 (95% CI: 0.20–0.78) indicating marginal intra-class correlation. The overall Cronbach’s alpha was 0.85 while the alphas for each of the affective and behavioural components was good at 0.78 and 0.69 respectively indicating a good degree of consistency and homogeneity between items but the alpha for the cognitive component was low at 0.53. Conclusions: The ABC model of attitudes guided the development of the scale, ensured a mix of 27 items tapping into the three domains of Affect, Behaviour and Cognition which best explained the attitude construct. With good validity and alphas for each of the affective, behavioural components and overall alpha estimates, this scale can be a valuable tool to provide accurate estimates of the true attitudes held by HCPs. This, in turn, would be useful to obtain insights for appropriate intervention programmes that would help change negative attitudes of HCPs towards persons affected by leprosy. With some adaptations, the scales can be validated for other NTDs as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Participants in mass gathering events are at risk of acquiring imported and locally endemic infectious diseases. The 2014 dengue outbreak in Tokyo gathered attention since it was the first time in 70 years for Japan to experience an autochthonous transmission. Preparation for emerging infectious threats is essential even in places where these outbreaks have been largely unknown. The aim of this study is to identify strategies for early detection and prevention of dengue infection during the 2020 summer Olympics and Paralympics in Tokyo. Methodology/Principal findings: We modified and adapted the failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) methodology, generally used in industrial manufacturing, to examine the current controls for dengue detection and assessment. Information on existing controls were obtained from publicly available resources. Our analysis revealed that the national infectious disease control system to detect dengue in Japan is robust. However, in the case of large assemblies of international visitors for special events when the spread of communicable and vector-borne diseases increases, there are three main gaps that could be reinforced. First, cyclical training or a certification program on tropical disease management is warranted for physicians, especially those working in non-infectious disease-designated hospitals or clinics. Second, multi-language communication methods need to be strengthened especially in the health and hospitality sector. Third, owners of accommodations should consider incorporating a formal tropical disease-training program for their staff members and have a contingency plan for infectious disease-suspected travelers. Conclusions/Significance: Our findings may facilitate physicians and public health officials where new controls would be beneficial for the 2020 summer Olympics and Paralympics. The FMEA framework has the potential to be applied to other infectious diseases, not just dengue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Survival of junior scientists in academic biomedical research is difficult in today’s highly competitive funding climate. National Institute of Health (NIH) data on first-time R01 grantees indicate the rate at which early investigators drop out from a NIH-supported research career is most rapid 4 to 5 years from the first R01 award. The factors associated with a high risk of dropping out, and whether these factors impact all junior investigators equally, are unclear. We identified a cohort of 1,496 investigators who received their first R01-equivalent (R01-e) awards from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases between 2003 and 2010, and studied all their subsequent NIH grant applications through 2016. Ultimately, 57% of the cohort were successful in obtaining new R01-e funding, despite highly competitive conditions. Among those investigators who failed to compete successfully for new funding (43%), the average time to dropping out was 5 years. Investigators who successfully obtained new grants showed remarkable within-person consistency across multiple grant submission behaviors, including submitting more applications per year, more renewal applications, and more applications to multiple NIH Institutes. Funded investigators appeared to have two advantages over their unfunded peers at the outset: they had better scores on their first R01-e grants and they demonstrated an early ability to write applications that would be scored, not triaged. The cohort rapidly segregated into two very different groups on the basis of PI consistency in the quality and frequency of applications submitted after their first R01-e award. Lastly, we identified a number of specific demographic factors, intitutional characteristics, and grant submission behaviors that were associated with successful outcomes, and assessed their predictive value and relative importance for the likelihood of obtaining additional NIH funding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting the emergence and spread of influenza viruses is an important public health challenge. Timely and accurate estimates of influenza prevalence, particularly of severe cases requiring hospitalization, can improve control measures to reduce transmission and mortality. Here, we extend a previously published machine learning method for influenza forecasting to integrate multiple diverse data sources, including traditional surveillance data, electronic health records, internet search traffic, and social media activity. Our hierarchical framework uses multi-linear regression to combine forecasts from multiple data sources and greedy optimization with forward selection to sequentially choose the most predictive combinations of data sources. We show that the systematic integration of complementary data sources can substantially improve forecast accuracy over single data sources. When forecasting the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) influenza-like-illness reports (ILINet) from week 48 through week 20, the optimal combination of predictors includes public health surveillance data and commercially available electronic medical records, but neither search engine nor social media data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Due to the close relationship between EVD and nutrition, the humanitarian community implemented various nutrition-specific and -sensitive interventions to stem the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa. Little, however, is known about stakeholder and community members’ perspectives toward this response in Guinea. Therefore, we aimed to firstly understand how EVD may have influenced the nutrition situation; and secondly to assess the perceived acceptability and effectiveness of the nutrition response. Materials and methods: Using 27 in-depth interviews conducted in April–May 2016, this descriptive, qualitative study had three iterative phases in an emergent design. Phase 1 explored the perceptions of 11 high-level policy and management staff. Phase 2 assessed the views of 16 community members, survivors, and front-line workers. Phase 3 compared the qualitative findings to relevant nutrition indicators from secondary data for final interpretations. A systematic, team-based coding approach using Dedoose software identified key themes during textual analysis. Results: Overall, several plausible pathways through an interrelated network of bio-social factors help describe EVD impacts on the nutrition situation of Guinea. At a basic level, complex social dimensions of health, response unpreparedness, and market disruptions were perceived to be major determinants affecting the nutrition situation, especially among IYC. At an underlying level, household food security was negatively impacted, along with weakened care-seeking practices, IYC feeding practices, and coping strategies. Consequently, treatment coverage for childhood illnesses and IYC diets were negatively impacted during the outbreak. In hindsight, most participants had positive perceptions toward the overall EVD response, but described salient considerations for improving upon this nutrition response during future outbreaks. Discussion: This study highlighted the complex web of inter-related factors through which EVD was perceived to impact the nutrition situation in Guinea. Considering the multi-level social and behavioral dimensions of health and nutrition is critical for effectively responding to infectious disease outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Buruli ulcer (BU) is a chronic necrotizing infectious skin disease caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans. The treatment with BU-specific antibiotics is initiated after clinical suspicion based on the WHO clinical and epidemiological criteria. This study aimed to estimate the predictive values of these criteria and how they could be improved. Methodology/Principal findings: A total of 224 consecutive patients presenting with skin and soft tissue lesions that could be compatible with BU, including those recognized as unlikely BU by experienced clinicians, were recruited in two BU treatment centers in southern Benin between March 2012 and March 2015. For every participant, the WHO and four additional epidemiological and clinical diagnostic criteria were recorded. For microbiological confirmation, direct smear examination and IS2404 PCR were performed. We fitted a logistic regression model with PCR positivity for BU confirmation as outcome variable. On univariate analysis, most of the clinical and epidemiological WHO criteria were associated with a positive PCR result. However, lesions on the lower limbs and WHO category 3 lesions were rather associated with a negative PCR result (respectively OR: 0.4, 95%CI: 0.3–0.8; OR: 0.5, 95%IC: 0.3–0.9). Among the additional characteristics studied, the characteristic smell of BU was strongest associated with a positive PCR result (OR = 16.4; 95%CI = 7.5–35.6). Conclusion/Significance: The WHO diagnostic criteria could be improved upon by differentiating between lesions on the upper and lower limbs and by including lesion size and the characteristic smell recognized by experienced clinicians. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Self-reported social mixing patterns are commonly used in mathematical models of infectious diseases. It is particularly important to quantify patterns for school-age children given their disproportionate role in transmission, but it remains unclear how the structure of such social interactions changes over time. By integrating data collection into a public engagement programme, we examined self-reported contact networks in year 7 groups in four UK secondary schools. We collected data from 460 unique participants across four rounds of data collection conducted between January and June 2015, with 7,315 identifiable contacts reported in total. Although individual-level contacts varied over the study period, we were able to obtain out-of-sample accuracies of more than 90% and F-scores of 0.49–0.84 when predicting the presence or absence of social contacts between specific individuals across rounds of data collection. Network properties such as clustering and number of communities were broadly consistent within schools between survey rounds, but varied significantly between schools. Networks were assortative according to gender, and to a lesser extent school class, with the estimated clustering coefficient larger among males in all surveyed co-educational schools. Our results demonstrate that it is feasible to collect longitudinal self-reported social contact data from school children and that key properties of these data are consistent between rounds of data collection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]