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Background: Plague is a zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, highly prevalent in the Central Highlands, a mountainous region in the center of Madagascar. After a plague-free period of over 60 years in the northwestern coast city of Mahajanga, the disease reappeared in 1991 and caused several outbreaks until 1999. Previous research indicates that the disease was reintroduced to the city of Mahajanga from the Central Highlands instead of reemerging from a local reservoir. However, it is not clear how many reintroductions occurred and when they took place. Methodology/Principal findings: In this study we applied a Bayesian phylogeographic model to detect and date migrations of Y. pestis between the two locations that could be linked to the re-emergence of plague in Mahajanga. Genome sequences of 300 Y. pestis strains sampled between 1964 and 2012 were analyzed. Four migrations from the Central Highlands to Mahajanga were detected. Two resulted in persistent transmission in humans, one was responsible for most of the human cases recorded between 1995 and 1999, while the other produced plague cases in 1991 and 1992. We dated the emergence of the Y. pestis sub-branch 1.ORI3, which is only present in Madagascar and Turkey, to the beginning of the 20th century, using a Bayesian molecular dating analysis. The split between 1.ORI3 and its ancestor lineage 1.ORI2 was dated to the second half of the 19th century. Conclusions/Significance: Our results indicate that two independent migrations from the Central Highlands caused the plague outbreaks in Mahajanga during the 1990s, with both introductions occurring during the early 1980s. They happened over a decade before the detection of human cases, thus the pathogen likely survived in wild reservoirs until the spillover to humans was possible. This study demonstrates the value of Bayesian phylogenetics in elucidating the re-emergence of infectious diseases. Author summary: In 1991 human cases of plague were reported in the city of Mahajanga, located in the west coast of Madagascar, after 60 years without human cases. Existing evidence suggests that Yersinia pestis, the causal agent of the disease, was reintroduced to the city from a mountainous region known as the Central Highlands. We performed a phylogeographic analysis on 300 Y. pestis genome sequences to determine how many migrations of the pathogen between the two locations were related to the reappearance of the disease in Mahajanga. The results revealed that two migrations from the Central Highlands were the cause of the outbreaks of plague in the west coast of the country during the 1990s. We also aimed to date the emergence of the Y.pestis variant that circulates in Madagascar and is also present in Turkey. To do this, we conducted a molecular dating analysis using an extended data set of 445 sequences, which contained sequences from Turkey and India (the country from which the pathogen was exported to Madagascar for the first time). The analysis indicated that this particular variant emerged in the first decade of the 20th century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Yersinia pestis appears to be maintained in multiple, geographically separate, and phylogenetically distinct subpopulations within the highlands of Madagascar. However, the dynamics of these locally differentiated subpopulations through time are mostly unknown. To address that gap and further inform our understanding of plague epidemiology, we investigated the phylogeography of Y. pestis in Madagascar over an 18 year period. Methodology/Principal findings: We generated whole genome sequences for 31 strains and discovered new SNPs that we used in conjunction with previously identified SNPs and variable-number tandem repeats (VNTRs) to genotype 773 Malagasy Y. pestis samples from 1995 to 2012. We mapped the locations where samples were obtained on a fine geographic scale to examine phylogeographic patterns through time. We identified 18 geographically separate and phylogenetically distinct subpopulations that display spatial and temporal stability, persisting in the same locations over a period of almost two decades. We found that geographic areas with higher levels of topographical relief are associated with greater levels of phylogenetic diversity and that sampling frequency can vary considerably among subpopulations and from year to year. We also found evidence of various Y. pestis dispersal events, including over long distances, but no evidence that any dispersal events resulted in successful establishment of a transferred genotype in a new location during the examined time period. Conclusions/Significance: Our analysis suggests that persistent endemic cycles of Y. pestis transmission within local areas are responsible for the long term maintenance of plague in Madagascar, rather than repeated episodes of wide scale epidemic spread. Landscape likely plays a role in maintaining Y. pestis subpopulations in Madagascar, with increased topographical relief associated with increased levels of localized differentiation. Local ecological factors likely affect the dynamics of individual subpopulations and the associated likelihood of observing human plague cases in a given year in a particular location. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During a pneumonic plague outbreak in Moramanga, Madagascar, we identified 4 confirmed, 1 presumptive, and 9 suspected plague case-patients. Human-to-human transmission among close contacts was high (reproductive number 1.44) and the case fatality rate was 71%. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the Yersinia pestis isolates belonged to group q3, different from the previous outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Yersinia pestis is the causative agent of human plague and is endemic in various African, Asian and American countries. In Madagascar, the disease represents a significant public health problem with hundreds of human cases a year. Unfortunately, poor infrastructure makes outbreak investigations challenging. Methodology/Principal Findings: DNA was extracted directly from 93 clinical samples from patients with a clinical diagnosis of plague in Madagascar in 2007. The extracted DNAs were then genotyped using three molecular genotyping methods, including, single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) typing, multi-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA), and Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPR) analysis. These methods provided increasing resolution, respectively. The results of these analyses revealed that, in 2007, ten molecular groups, two newly described here and eight previously identified, were responsible for causing human plague in geographically distinct areas of Madagascar. Conclusions/Significance: Plague in Madagascar is caused by numerous distinct types of Y. pestis. Genotyping method choice should be based upon the discriminatory power needed, expense, and available data for any desired comparisons. We conclude that genotyping should be a standard tool used in epidemiological investigations of plague outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]