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Previous studies have identified changes in habitat temperature as a major factor leading to the geographical displacement of North Sea cod in the last decades. However, the degree to which thermal suitability is presently changing in different regions of the North Sea is still unclear, or if temperature alone (or together with fishery) is responsible for this displacement. In this study, the spatial distribution of different life stages of cod was modelled from 1967 to 2015. The model is fit point-to-point, spatially resolved at scales of 20 km. The results show that suitability has decreased south of 56°N (>12% in the Southern Bight) and increased north of it (with maximum of roughly 10% in southern Skagerrak). Future changes to suitability were estimated throughout the century using temperature projections from a regional climate model under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario RCP8.5. The results show that southern Skagerrak, the central and northern North Sea and the edge of the Norwegian trench will remain thermally suitable for North Sea cod throughout the century. This detailed geographical representation of thermally suitable key zones for North Sea cod under climate change is revealed for the first time through the improved resolution of this analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The understanding of spatio-temporal dynamics of marine ecosystems is crucial for ecosystem-based fisheries management and climate change impact assessments. We quantified temporal changes in the distribution of 0-group cod ( Gadus morhua) and grey gurnard ( Eutriglia gurnardus), a primary predator of 0-group cod, with the help of regression kriging and assessed the temporal dynamics of the related spatial predator-prey overlap of these two species at different spatial scales. We analysed the robustness of relationships among abiotic habitat properties (temperature, salinity and depth) and abundance. Small cod was mainly found in low salinity areas of the Skagerrak but larger year classes were able to expand their distribution area towards the central and northern North Sea. In contrast, grey gurnard was mainly found in waters with salinities above 33 and temperatures above 14°C. This species has expanded its high density areas in the central North Sea northward over the last two decades. Recruitment success of cod was negatively correlated to a Moran's I cross-correlation index, a proxy for the degree of spatial overlap between both species. Strong cod year classes overlapped less with grey gurnard at the large and medium spatial scale. In general, the relationships between abiotic habitat properties and abundance showed an increased inter-annual variability, which was likely caused by underlying factors not taken into account in the distribution models. Thus assemblage modeling approaches combining the strength of different model types should be considered in the future to predict potential distribution patterns under climate change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kempf, A., Dingsør, G. E., Huse, G., Vinther, M., Floeter, J., and Temming, A. 2010. The importance of predator–prey overlap: predicting North Sea cod recovery with a multispecies assessment model. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 1989–1997.The overlap between predator and prey is known as a sensitive parameter in multispecies assessment models for fish, and its parameterization is notoriously difficult. Overlap indices were derived from trawl surveys and used to parametrize the North Sea stochastic multispecies model. The effect of time-invariant and year- and quarter-specific overlap estimates on the historical (1991–2007) and predicted trophic interactions, as well as the development of predator and prey stocks, was investigated. The focus was set on a general comparison between single-species and multispecies forecasts and the sensitivity of the predicted development of North Sea cod for the two types of overlap implementation. The spatial–temporal overlap between cod and its predators increased with increasing temperature, indicating that foodweb processes might reduce the recovery potential of cod during warm periods. Multispecies scenarios were highly influenced by assumptions on future spatial overlap, but they predicted a considerably lower recovery potential than single-species predictions did. In addition, a recovery of North Sea cod had strong negative effects on its prey stocks. The consequences of these findings for management are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]