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Conventional approaches for assessing supply chain vulnerability do not capture endogenous disruptions emanating from chain actors' decisions that might increase value chain vulnerability. These approaches adopt a reactive analytical explanation of vulnerability, rather than one that considers issues of feedback effects. To address this issue, this paper adopts a system dynamics modelling approach to identify the precursors of vulnerabilities in Ghana's cocoa value chain. The paper assesses the vulnerability levels of the cocoa value chain by adjusting the baseline values of several key parameters that can be influenced by chain actors. Results of the sensitivity analyses indicate that the precursors of vulnerability situated upstream of the cocoa value chain have varying impacts on chain vulnerability, but the same magnitude of effect on the vulnerability levels of chain actors. However, precursors of vulnerability that are situated midstream of the cocoa value chain have an unequal magnitude of effect on the vulnerability levels of chain actors. Results suggest that policies governing cocoa trading can become countervailing factors that obstruct the government's call for upgrading along the cocoa value chain. The system dynamics model presented here enables a proactive assessment of vulnerability which can facilitate collaborative planning among stakeholders in the value chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cocoa-plantain intercropping is espoused in Ghana as a countervailing strategy for cocoa price fluctuation and household food insecurity. However, the call for a production shift from high-value crops to food staples within an intercropping system is based on limited empirical evidence. Moreover, although intercropping connotes efficient farmland use, there is an inconclusive argument about the effect of farm size used within an intercropping system on the farm income. This paper seeks to examine the synergistic effect of a cocoa-plantain intercropping system on farmers' gross margin in Ghana. System Dynamics modelling was used to: (i) unveil the inherent drivers of farmers' behaviour in a cocoa-plantain intercropping system; and (ii) quantitatively estimate the synergistic effect on farmers' gross margin. Results showed that farmers that increase the farm size allocation for the intercrop in a cocoa-plantain intercropping system accrue a mean gross margin of 81.7%. The adoption of good agricultural practice contributes a 2% increase to the gross margin. A 5% increase in farm size allocation for intercropping results in 1% increase in the synergistic effect on gross margin. Also, the results revealed that farmers that engage in variable-input substitution and specification accrue the same gross margin of 79.2%. However, farmers that practice variable-input substitution are likely to be more food - sufficient due to the household consumption of the intercrop. Also, the results showed that the synergistic effect for intercropping is highest when farmers opt for complementary intercrops that have a lower production cost than the high-value crop. Consequently, farmers may divert production inputs from the cultivation of high-value crops to food staple to increase the synergistic effect of intercropping. The findings of this paper serve as a sounding board for the promotion of intercropping involving high-value export crops and food staple crops in developing economies, where specialisation in export crop cultivation is favoured. Also, the findings offer farmers the different options of intercropping strategies that can be adopted to increase their on-farm income. [Display omitted] • Adopters of good agricultural practices have higher gross margin but lower synergistic effect on gross margin. • A 5% increase of farm size for intercropping results in less than 1% increase in the synergistic effect. • The lower the production cost of an intercrop the higher the synergistic effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]