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The main methods of coalbed methane (CBM) development are drainage and depressurization, and a precise prediction of coal reservoir pressure is thus crucial for the evaluation of reservoir potentials and the formulation of reasonable development plans. This work established a new reservoir pressure prediction model based on the material balance equation (MBE) of coal reservoir, which considers the self‐regulating effects of coal reservoirs and the dynamic change of equivalent drainage area (EDA). According to the proposed model, the reservoir pressure can be predicted based on reservoir condition data and the actual production data of a single well. Compared with traditional reservoir pressure prediction models which regard EDA as a fixed value, the proposed model can better predict the average pressure of reservoirs. Moreover, orthogonal experiments were designed to evaluate the sensitivity of reservoir parameters on the reservoir pressure prediction results of this proposed model. The results show that the saturation of irreducible water is the most sensitive parameter, followed by Langmuir volume and reservoir porosity, and Langmuir pressure is the least sensitive parameter. In addition, the pressure drop of reservoirs is negatively correlated with the saturation of irreducible water and the Langmuir volume, while it is positively correlated with porosity. This work analyzed the reservoir pressure drop characteristics of the CBM wells in the Shizhuangnan Block of the Qinshui Basin, and the results show that the CBM reservoir depressurization can be divided into three types, i.e., rapidly drop type, medium‐term stability type, and slowly drop type. The drainage features of wells were reasonably interpreted based on the comprehensive analysis of the reservoir depressurization type; the latter was coupled to the corresponding permeability dynamic change characteristics, eventually proving the applicability of the proposed model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the unique adsorption and desorption characteristics of coal, coal reservoir permeability changes dynamically during coalbed methane (CBM) development. Coal reservoirs can be classified using a permeability dynamic characterization in different production stages. In the single-phase water flow stage, four demarcating pressures are defined based on the damage from the effective stress on reservoir permeability. Coal reservoirs are classified into vulnerable, alleviative, and invulnerable reservoirs. In the gas desorption stage, two demarcating pressures are used to quantitatively characterize the recovery properties of permeability based on the recovery effect of the matrix shrinkage on permeability, namely the rebound pressure (the pressure corresponding to the lowest permeability) and recovery pressure (the pressure when permeability returns to initial permeability). Coal reservoirs are further classified into recoverable and unrecoverable reservoirs. The physical properties and influencing factors of these demarcating pressures are analyzed. Twenty-six wells from the Shizhuangnan Block in the southern Qinshui Basin of China were examined as a case study, showing that there is a significant correspondence between coal reservoir types and CBM well gas production. This study is helpful for identifying geological conditions of coal reservoirs as well as the productivity potential of CBM wells. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]