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Background Precision in estimating placebo rates is important for clinical trial design. Aim To quantify placebo rates across relevant endpoints in Crohn's disease [CD] trials and identify the factors influencing these rates in a contemporary meta-analysis. Methods We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL from inception to March 2021. Eligible studies were placebo-controlled trials of pharmacological interventions for CD. Placebo response and remission rates for induction and maintenance trials were extracted and pooled by random-effects to quantify placebo rates across studies. Mixed-effects meta-regression was used to evaluate the effects of study-level characteristics on placebo rates. Results In 125 studies [91 induction, 46 maintenance], placebo clinical remission and response rates for induction studies were 18% (95% confidence interval [CI] 16, 21%], and 32% [95% CI 29, 35%], respectively, and for maintenance studies were 28% [95% CI 23, 34%] and 30% [95% CI 24, 37%], respectively. Endoscopic remission and response rates in induction studies were 8% [95% CI 4, 18%] and 16% [95% CI 11, 23%], respectively. Trials enrolling patients with prior biologic exposure, longer disease duration, and higher CD activity index scores were associated with lower placebo clinical remission rates. Increased duration of follow-up, more follow-up visits, and a greater proportion of patients with colonic disease distribution were associated with higher clinical placebo rates. Conclusions Placebo remission and response rates in CD trials vary according to the phase of the trial, endpoint assessed, and induction or maintenance design. These contemporary estimates will help to inform future CD trial design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims Quantifying placebo rates and the factors influencing them are essential to inform trial design. We provide a contemporary summary of clinical, endoscopic, histological and safety placebo rates in induction and maintenance clinical trials of ulcerative colitis, and identify factors influencing them. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane library were searched from April 2014 to April 2020, updating a prior meta-analysis that searched from inception to April 2014. We included placebo-controlled trials of aminosalicylates, corticosteroids, immunosuppressives, small-molecules and biologics in adults with ulcerative colitis. Placebo rates were pooled using random-effects and mixed-effects meta-regression models to assess the associated study-level. Results In 119 trials [92 induction, 27 maintenance] clinical, endoscopic and histological remission placebo rates for induction trials were 11% (95% confidence interval [CI] 9–13%), 19% [95% CI 15–23%] and 15% [95% CI 11–19%], respectively; for maintenance trials, clinical and endoscopic placebo remission rates were 18% [95% CI 12–25%] and 20% [95% CI 15–25%], respectively. Higher endoscopic subscore and a higher rate of exposure to prior biologic therapy at enrolment were associated with lower clinical and endoscopic placebo remission rates. Absence of central reading was associated with an increase in placebo endoscopic response and remission rates. More follow-up visits and increasing trial duration were associated with higher clinical placebo rates. Conclusions Placebo rates in ulcerative colitis trials vary according to the endpoint assessed, whether it is for assessment of response or remission, and whether the trial is designed for induction or maintenance. These contemporary rates across different endpoints and drug classes will help to inform trial design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cluster randomization trials, in which intact social units are randomized to different interventions, have become popular in the last 25 years. Outcomes from these trials in many cases are positively skewed, following approximately lognormal distributions. When inference is focused on the difference between treatment arm arithmetic means, existent confidence interval procedures either make restricting assumptions or are complex to implement. We approach this problem by assuming log-transformed outcomes from each treatment arm follow a one-way random effects model. The treatment arm means are functions of multiple parameters for which separate confidence intervals are readily available, suggesting that the method of variance estimates recovery may be applied to obtain closed-form confidence intervals. A simulation study showed that this simple approach performs well in small sample sizes in terms of empirical coverage, relatively balanced tail errors, and interval widths as compared to existing methods. The methods are illustrated using data arising from a cluster randomization trial investigating a critical pathway for the treatment of community acquired pneumonia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Patient-reported outcomes ( PROs) have an increasingly important role in the evaluation of new therapies for inflammatory bowel disease. The US Food and Drug Administration has issued formal guidance to describe the role of PRO instruments in evaluation of claims for product labelling. However, no validated PRO exists for ulcerative colitis. Aim To investigate whether the PROs from the Mayo Clinic Score ( MCS) for UC can be modified, to develop an interim PRO for use in clinical trials, alone or in combination with endoscopy. Methods Data from an induction trial of a mesalazine (mesalamine) formulation were used to compare effect sizes between mesalazine and placebo for PRO items (stool frequency and rectal bleeding) alone and in combination with endoscopy. The operating properties of the PRO were validated using data from a phase 2 trial of MLN02, a humanised antibody to the α4 β7 integrin in patients with UC. Results A two-item PRO ( PRO2) consisting of rectal bleeding = 0 and stool frequency ≤1 or ≤2, combined with an endoscopy subscore ≤1 yielded statistically significant differences between active drug and placebo. This combination yielded the most similar effect sizes and placebo rates for remission, compared to the primary trials. Use of PRO items alone yielded high placebo remission rates in both data sets, although rates were lower when the items were combined and remission defined as PRO2 = 0. Conclusion Patient-reported outcomes items derived from the Mayo Clinic Score combined with endoscopy as a co-primary endpoint may be an appropriate interim outcome measure for ulcerative colitis trials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]