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Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard to establish the benefit-risk ratio of novel drugs. However, the evaluation of mature results often takes many years. We hypothesized that the addition of Bayesian inference methods at interim analysis time points might accelerate and enforce the knowledge that such trials may generate. In order to test that hypothesis, we retrospectively applied a Bayesian approach to the HOVON 132 trial, in which 800 newly diagnosed AML patients aged 18 to 65 years were randomly assigned to a "7 + 3" induction with or without lenalidomide. Five years after the first patient was recruited, the trial was negative for its primary endpoint with no difference in event-free survival (EFS) between experimental and control groups (hazard ratio [HR] 0.99, p = 0.96) in the final conventional analysis. We retrospectively simulated interim analyses after the inclusion of 150, 300, 450, and 600 patients using a Bayesian methodology to detect early lack of efficacy signals. The HR for EFS comparing the lenalidomide arm with the control treatment arm was 1.21 (95% CI 0.81–1.69), 1.05 (95% CI 0.86–1.30), 1.00 (95% CI 0.84–1.19), and 1.02 (95% CI 0.87–1.19) at interim analysis 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Complete remission rates were lower in the lenalidomide arm, and early deaths more frequent. A Bayesian approach identified that the probability of a clinically relevant benefit for EFS (HR < 0.76, as assumed in the statistical analysis plan) was very low at the first interim analysis (1.2%, 0.6%, 0.4%, and 0.1%, respectively). Similar observations were made for low probabilities of any benefit regarding CR. Therefore, Bayesian analysis significantly adds to conventional methods applied for interim analysis and may thereby accelerate the performance and completion of phase III trials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diagnostic cytogenetic abnormalities are considered important prognostic factors in patients with acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). However, the prognostic assessments have mainly been derived from patients with AML aged <60 years. Two recent studies of AML patients of 60 years and older proposed prognostic classifications with distinct discrepancies. To further study the prognostic value of cytogenetic abnormalities in this patient population, we have evaluated cytogenetic abnormalities in a series of 293 untreated patients with AML aged 60 years and older, included in a randomised phase 3 trial, also in relation to patient characteristics and clinical outcome. The most frequently observed cytogenetic abnormality was trisomy 8 (+8), in 31 (11%) patients. Abnormalities, such as )5, 5q-, abn(17p) and abn(17q), were almost exclusively present in complex karyotypes. A relatively favourable outcome was only observed in five patients with core-binding factor abnormalities t(8;21) and inv(16)/del(16)/ t(16;16). However, most of the other evaluated cytogenetic abnormalities, such as 5q-, )7, +8, abn(17p), abn(17q), and complex aberrations expressed a more adverse prognosis when compared with patients with AML aged 60 years and older with a normal karyotype. Large studies to confirm the prognosis of individual cytogenetic aberrations are warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An urgent need for new treatment modalities is emerging in elderly patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). We hypothesized that targeting VEGF might furnish an effective treatment modality in this population. Elderly patients with AML were randomly assigned in this phase 2 study (n = 171) to receive standard chemotherapy (3 + 7) with or without bevacizumab at a dose of 10 mg/kg intravenously at days 1 and 15. In the second cycle, patients received cytarabine 1000 mg/m2 twice daily on days 1-6 with or without bevacizumab. The complete remission rates in the 2 arms were not different (65%). Event-free survival at 12 months was 33% for the standard arm versus 30% for the bevacizumab arm; at 24 months, it was 22% and 16%, respectively (P = .42). The frequencies of severe adverse events (SAEs) were higher in the bevacizumab arm.(n = 63) compared with the control arm (n = 28; P = .043), but the percentages of death or life-threatening SAEs were lower in the bevacizumab arm (60% vs 75% of SAEs). The results of the present study show that the addition of bevacizumab to standard chemotherapy does not improve the therapeutic out-come of older AML patients. This trial is registered as number NTR904 in The Netherlands Trial Register (www.trialregister.nI). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]