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Elevation-dependent warming (EDW), whereby warming rates are stratified by elevation, may increase the threat to the life-supporting solid water reservoir on the Tibetan Plateau. Previous studies have debated whether EDW exists and how it is driven. Using temperatures at 133 weather stations on the Tibetan Plateau during 17 different periods generated using a 30-year sliding window over 1973–2018, this study finds that the existence of EDW varies as the period moves forward, and critically it has become more severe over time. During the early part of the record with weaker regional warming, there were limited changes in snow depth and no EDW, but as time advances and regional warming intensifies, snow depth declines significantly at higher elevations, causing development of EDW. We conclude that enhanced regional warming has caused decreases in snow depth, largely controlling the pattern of EDW on the Tibetan Plateau. This may explain contrasting conclusions on EDW from previous studies which have used data for different periods, and our findings support enhanced EDW and more severe depletion of the Tibetan Plateau solid water reserves in a warmer future.

In Part I of our study (Zazulie et al. Clim Dyn, 2017, hereafter Z17) we analyzed the ability of a subset of fifteen high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 to reproduce the past climate of the Subtropical Central Andes (SCA) of Argentina and Chile. A subset of only five GCMs was shown to reproduce well the past climate (1980–2005), for austral summer and winter. In this study we analyze future climate projections for the twenty-first century over this complex orography region using those five GCMs. We evaluate the projections under two of the representative concentration pathways considered as future scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Future projections indicate warming during the twenty-first century over the SCA region, especially pronounced over the mountains. Projections of warming at high elevations in the SCA depend on altitude, and are larger than the projected global mean warming. This phenomenon is expected to strengthen by the end of the century under the high-emission scenario. Increases in winter temperatures of up to 2.5 °C, relative to 1980–2005, are projected by 2040–2065, while a 5 °C warming is expected at the highest elevations by 2075–2100. Such a large monthly-mean warming during winter would most likely result in snowpack melting by late winter-early spring, with serious implication for water availability during summer, when precipitation is a minimum over the mountains. We also explore changes in the albedo, as a contributing factor affecting the net flux of energy at the surface and found a reduction in albedo of 20–60% at high elevations, related to the elevation dependent warming. Furthermore, a decrease in winter precipitation is projected in central Chile by the end of the century, independent of the scenario considered. Fil: Zazulie, Natalia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina Fil: Raga, Graciela B.. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; México

This study uses the CMA (China Meteorological Administration) global land-surface daily air temperature dataset V1.0 (GLSATD V1.0) to analyze long-term changes in extreme temperature events over the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) during 1961–2015. Results show there was a significant decrease in the number of extreme cold events (cold nights, cold days, and frost days) but a significant increase in the number of extreme warm events (warm nights, warm days, and summer days) over the entire HKH during 1961–2015. For percentile-based indices, trends of extreme events related to minimum temperature (Tmin) were greater in magnitude than those related to maximum temperature (Tmax). For absolute-value based indices, maximum Tmax, minimum Tmin, and summer days all show increasing trends, while frost days and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) show significant decreasing trends. In addition, there was a decrease in extreme cold events in most parts of east HKH, particularly in Southwest China and the Tibetan Plateau, while there was a general increase in extreme warm events over the entire HKH. Finally, the change in extreme cold events in the HKH appears to be more sensitive to elevation (with cold nights and cold days decreasing with elevation), whereas the change in warm extremes (warm nights, warm days, and maximum Tmax) shows no detectable relationship with elevation. Frost days and minimum Tmin also have a good relationship with elevation, and the trend in frost days decreases with an increase in elevation while the trend in minimum Tmin increases with an increase in elevation.

We assessed maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures over Pakistan’s Indus basin during the 21st century using statistical downscaling. A particular focus was given to spatiotemporal heterogeneity, reference and General Circulation Model (GCM) uncertainties, and statistical skills of regression models using an observational profile that could significantly be improved by recent high-altitude observatories. First, we characterized the basin into homogeneous climate regions using K-means clustering. Predictors from ERA-Interim reanalysis were then used to model observed temperatures skillfully and quantify reference and GCM uncertainties. Thermodynamical (dynamical) variables mainly governed reference (GCM) uncertainties. The GCM predictors under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used as “new” predictors in statistical models to project ensemble temperature changes. Our analysis projected non-uniform warming but could not validate elevation-dependent warming (EDW) at the basin scale. We obtained more significant warming during the westerly-dominated seasons, with maximum heating during the winter season through Tmin changes. The most striking feature is a low-warming monsoon (with the possibility of no change to slight cooling) over the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Therefore, the likelihood of continuing the anomalous UIB behavior during the primary melt season may not entirely be ruled out at the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5.

Climate change will impact western USA water supplies by shifting precipitation from snow to rain and driving snowmelt earlier in the season. However, changes at the regional-to-mountain scale is still a major topic of interest. This study addresses the impacts of climate change on mountain snowpack by assessing historical and projected variable-resolution (VR) climate simulations in the community earth system model (VR-CESM) forced by prescribed sea-surface temperatures along with widely used regional downscaling techniques, the coupled model intercomparison projects phase 5 bias corrected and statistically downscaled (CMIP5-BCSD) and the North American regional climate change assessment program (NARCCAP). The multi-model RCP8.5 scenario analysis of winter season SWE for western USA mountains indicates by 2040-2065 mean SWE could decrease −19% (NARCCAP) to −38% (VR-CESM), with an ensemble median change of −27%. Contrary to CMIP5-BCSD and NARCCAP, VR-CESM highlights a more pessimistic outcome for western USA mountain snowpack in latter-parts of the 21st century. This is related to temperature changes altering the snow-albedo feedback, snowpack storage, and precipitation phase, but may indicate that VR-CESM resolves more physically consistent elevational effects lacking in statistically downscaled datasets and teleconnections that are not captured in limited area models. Overall, VR-CESM projects by 2075–2100 that average western USA mountain snowfall decreases by −30%, snow cover by −44%, SWE by −69%, and average surface temperature increase of +5.0 $$^\circ$$ C. This places pressure on western USA states to preemptively invest in climate adaptation measures such as alternative water storage, water use efficiency, and reassess reservoir storage operations.

High elevations are thought to be warming more rapidly than lower elevations, but there is a lack of air temperature observations in high mountains. This study compares instantaneous values of land surface temperature (1030/2230 and 0130/1330 local solar time) as measured by MODIS MOD11A2/MYD11A2 at 1 km resolution from the TERRA and AQUA platforms respectively with equivalent screen level air temperatures (in the same pixel). We use a transect of 22 in situ weather stations across Kilimanjaro ranging in elevation from 990 to 5803 m, one of the biggest elevational ranges in the world. There are substantial differences between LST and Tair, sometimes up to 20˚C. During the day/night LST tends to be higher/lower than Tair. LST-Tair differences (ΔT) show large variance, particularly during the daytime, and tend to increase with elevation, particularly on the NE slope which faces the morning sun. Differences are larger in the dry seasons (JF and JJAS), and reduce in cloudy seasons. Healthier vegetation (as measured by NDVI) and increased humidity lead to reduced daytime surface heating above air temperature and lower ΔT, but these relationships weaken with elevation. At high elevations transient snow cover cools LST more than Tair. The predictability of ΔT therefore reduces. It will therefore be challenging to use satellite data at high elevations as a proxy for in situ air temperatures in climate change assessments, especially for daytime Tmax. ΔT is smaller and more consistent at night, so it will be easier to use LST to monitor changes in Tmin.

Mountain regions and the important ecosystem services they provide are considered to be very vulnerable to the current warming, and recent studies suggest that high-mountain environments experience more rapid changes in temperature than environments at lower elevations. Here we analysed weather records for the period 1975-2010 from the Eastern Italian Alps that show that warming occurred both at high and low elevations, but it was less pronounced at high elevations. This negative elevation-dependent trend was consistent for mean, maximum and minimum air temperature. Global radiation data measured at different elevations, surface energy fluxes measured above an alpine grassland and above a coniferous forest located at comparable elevations for nine consecutive years as well as remote sensing data (MODIS) for cloud cover and aerosol optical depth were analysed to interpret this observation. Increasing global radiation at low elevations turned out to be a potential driver of this negative elevation-dependent warming, but also contributions from land use and land cover changes at high elevations (abandonment of alpine pastures, expansion of secondary forest succession) were taken into account. We emphasise though, that a negative elevation-dependent warming is not universal and that future research and in particular models should not neglect the role of land use changes when determining warming rates over elevation.

There is growing evidence that the rate of warming is amplified with elevation, such that high-mountain environments experience more rapid changes in temperature than environments at lower elevations. Elevation-dependent warming (EDW) can accelerate the rate of change in mountain ecosystems, cryospheric systems, hydrological regimes and biodiversity. Here we review important mechanisms that contribute towards EDW: snow albedo and surface-based feedbacks; water vapour changes and latent heat release; surface water vapour and radiative flux changes; surface heat loss and temperature change; and aerosols. All lead to enhanced warming with elevation (or at a critical elevation), and it is believed that combinations of these mechanisms may account for contrasting regional patterns of EDW. We discuss future needs to increase knowledge of mountain temperature trends and their controlling mechanisms through improved observations, satellite-based remote sensing and model simulations.

The enhancement of warming rates with elevation, so-called elevation-dependent warming (EDW), is one of the regional, still not completely understood, expressions of global warming. Sentinels of climate and environmental changes, mountains have experienced more rapid and intense warming trends in the recent decades, leading to serious impacts on mountain ecosystems and downstream. In this paper we use a state-of-the-art Global Climate Model (EC-Earth) to investigate the impact of model spatial resolution on the representation of this phenomenon and to highlight possible differences in EDW and its causes in different mountain regions of the Northern Hemisphere. To this end we use EC-Earth climate simulations at five different spatial resolutions, from $$\sim$$ 125 to $$\sim$$ 16 km, to explore the existence and the driving mechanisms of EDW in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, the Greater Alpine Region and the Tibetan Plateau–Himalayas. Our results show that the more frequent EDW drivers in all regions and seasons are the changes in albedo and in downward thermal radiation and this is reflected in both daytime and nighttime warming. In the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas and in the Greater Alpine Region, an additional driver is the change in specific humidity. We also find that, while generally the model shows no clear resolution dependence in its ability to simulate the existence of EDW in the different regions, specific EDW characteristics such as its intensity and the relative role of different driving mechanisms may be different in simulations performed at different spatial resolutions. Moreover, we find that the role of internal climate variability can be significant in modulating the EDW signal, as suggested by the spread found in the multi-member ensemble of the EC-Earth experiments which we use.