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There exists a pronounced asymmetry between the amplitudes of central Pacific (CP) and eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). The present study examines such an asymmetry and its relationship with the North Pacific SSTA. Results indicate that the weaker CP El Niño amplitude can be attributed to the weaker anomalous zonal wind response to the east–west equatorial SSTA gradient during its growing phase compared with EP El Niño. Furthermore, the occurrence of CP El Niño is closely associated with southwesterly surface wind anomalies in the subtropical North Pacific, as well as ocean warming reminiscent of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) pattern in its vicinity. Both the observations as well as the pacemaker experiments with a coupled global climate model suggest that the anomalous low-level southwesterlies, induced by the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)-like atmospheric variability, can enhance anomalously positive SST signals and extend them southwestward to the central equatorial Pacific via the wind–evaporation–SST feedback. This will further attenuate the atmospheric response to zonal SSTA gradient, and hence weaken the amplitude of CP El Niño. Therefore, anomalous low-level southwesterlies over the subtropical North Pacific can effectively act as a conduit for tropical–subtropical air–sea interaction in that region, and can play an important role in limiting the intensity of CP El Niño.

Using a high-resolution precipitation dataset, the present study detected that the mountainous area of central China (MACA) is a hotspot of ENSO’s impact on the summer rainfall variability. Further analysis suggests that both ENSO and atmospheric forcing make contributions to the summer rainfall variability in MACA. The dominant rainfall-related SST mode features as a seasonal transition from an El Nino-like warming in the preceding winter to a La Nina-like cooling in the following autumn, and it explains about 29% of the total variance of the rainfall during 1951–2018. It indicates that ENSO with a rapid phase transition is responsible for inducing summer rainfall anomalies in MACA. Besides, an upper-level circumglobal wave mode in the Northern Hemisphere during summer also explains about 29% of the summer rainfall variance. Contributions of both the SST and the atmospheric modes have experienced interdecadal changes. The influence of the SST mode gradually increases and plays a dominant role in the recent decades, suggesting that ENSO with a rapid phase transition becomes more important for rainfall prediction in MACA.

This study is the second part of a two-part series investigating a recent decadal modulation of interannual variability over the western Pacific Ocean around the early 2000s. Observational evidence shows that the anomalous Philippine Sea cyclonic circulation retreats eastward, with the western Pacific rainfall anomaly distribution changing from a north–south tripole pattern to an east–west dipole pattern after 2003–04. These changes are attributed to a change in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) properties and the associated Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern. Before the early 2000s, slow-decaying ENSO events induce large SST anomalies in the northern Indian Ocean during the following summer. The northern Indian Ocean SST anomalies act together with the opposite-sign SST anomalies in the tropical central Pacific, leading to a zonally extended anomalous lower-level cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation and an elongated rainfall anomaly band over the western Pacific. After the early 2000s, ENSO events have a shortened period and a weakened amplitude, and the eastern Pacific SST anomalies tend to undergo a phase transition from winter to summer. Consequently, the influence of ENSO on the Indian Ocean SST anomalies is weakened and the contribution of the northern Indian Ocean SST anomalies to the western Pacific summer rainfall variability becomes insignificant. In this case, the western North Pacific summer rainfall is mainly dominated by the well-developed tropical Pacific SST forcing following the early decay of ENSO events. The potential physical mechanism for the two types of ENSO influences is validated with regional decoupled Community Earth System Model experiments.

The observations show that the covariability between the western North Pacific (WNP) and the South China Sea (SCS) summer rainfall has experienced an obvious weakening since the early 2000s. During the period 1982–2003, the combined north Indian Ocean (NIO), central North Pacific (CNP), and central equatorial Pacific (CEP) sea surface temperature (SST) forcing results in a high coherence between the WNP and SCS summer rainfall variations via a zonally elongated anomalous lower-level cyclone over the western Pacific. During the period 2004–16, the Indian Ocean SST contribution is largely weakened, and the WNP rainfall variability is dominated by the enhanced Pacific SST forcing with an eastward retreated lower-level wind and rainfall anomalies, whereas the SCS rainfall variability is mainly associated with local air–sea interaction processes. The results obtained from observational analysis are supported by numerical experiments with atmospheric and coupled general circulation models. The change in the coherence of interannual summer rainfall variability over the WNP and SCS has important implications for regional climate prediction in South and East Asia.

The period from April to June signifies the transition from spring to summer over the South China Sea (SCS). The present study documents two distinct processes for abnormal spring to summer transition over the SCS. One process is related to large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region. During spring of La Niña decaying years, negative SST anomalies in the equatorial central Pacific (ECP) and the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) coexist with positive SST anomalies in the tropical western North Pacific. Negative ECP SST anomalies force an anomalous Walker circulation, negative southwestern TIO SST anomalies induce anomalous cross-equatorial flows from there, and positive tropical western North Pacific SST anomalies produce a Rossby wave–type response to the west. Together, they contribute to enhanced convection and an anomalous lower-level cyclone over the SCS, leading to an advanced transition to summer there. The other process is related to regional air–sea interactions around the Maritime Continent. Preceding positive ECP SST anomalies induce anomalous descent around the Maritime Continent, leading to SST increase in the SCS and southeast TIO. An enhanced convection region moves eastward over the south TIO during spring and reaches the area northwest of Australia in May. This enhances descent over the SCS via an anomalous cross-equatorial overturning circulation and contributes to further warming in the SCS. The SST warming in turn induces convection over the SCS, leading to an accelerated transition to summer. Analysis shows that the above two processes are equally important during 1979–2015.

The present study employs six surface heat flux datasets and three ocean assimilation products to assess the relative contributions of surface heat fluxes and oceanic processes to the sea surface temperature (SST) change in the tropical oceans. Large differences are identified in the major terms of the heat budget equation. The largest discrepancies among different datasets appear in the contribution of vertical advection. The heat budget is nearly balanced in the shortwave-radiation- and horizontal-advection-dominant cases but not balanced in some of the latent-heat-flux- and vertical-advection-dominant cases. The contributions of surface heat fluxes and ocean advections to the SST tendency display remarkable seasonal and regional dependence. The contribution of surface heat fluxes covers a large geographical area. The oceanic processes dominate the SST tendency in the near-equatorial regions with large values but small spatial scales. In the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, the SST tendency is governed by the dynamic and thermodynamic processes, respectively, while a wide variety of processes contribute to the SST tendency in the Indian Ocean. Several regions have been selected to illustrate the dominant contributions of individual terms to the SST tendency in different seasons. The seasonality and regionality of the interannual air–sea relationship indicate a physical connection with the mean state.

The present study investigates signals of the South China Sea (SCS) summer rainfall variability in the Indian Ocean. It is found that the SCS summer rainfall has a negative relationship with December–January–February (DJF) western-equatorial Indian Ocean (WIO) sea surface temperature (SST), a positive relationship with an asymmetric mode of precipitation anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean during March–April–May (MAM), and a positive relationship with June–July–August (JJA) South Indian Ocean (SIO) SST. The WIO SST anomalies induce same-sign southeast Indian Ocean SST anomalies through an anomalous zonal vertical circulation. The southeast Indian Ocean SST anomalies last from late winter to early summer and induce opposite-sign SCS summer rainfall anomalies via an anomalous meridional vertical circulation. The asymmetric mode influences the SCS summer rainfall variation via the North Indian Ocean (NIO) SST anomalies with significant cloud–radiation and wind–evaporation effect. Positive (negative) SIO SST anomalies drive an anomalous direct circulation between the SIO and the NIO, and an anomalous indirect circulation between the NIO and the SCS which facilitates the occurrence of cyclonic (anti–cyclonic) wind anomalies over the SCS–western North Pacific and results in positive (negative) SCS summer rainfall anomalies. Partial correlation analysis indicates that the influence of DJF WIO SST anomalies and JJA SIO SST anomalies on the SCS summer rainfall is partly ENSO-independent, while the MAM asymmetric mode is mostly related to the preceding DJF eastern Pacific SST anomalies.

This study investigates summer rainfall variability in the South China Sea (SCS) region and the roles of remote sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean regions. The SCS summer rainfall displays a positive and negative relationship with simultaneous SST in the equatorial central Pacific (ECP) and the North Indian Ocean (NIO), respectively. Positive ECP SST anomalies induce an anomalous low-level cyclone over the SCS-western North Pacific as a Rossby-wave type response, leading to above-normal precipitation over northern SCS. Negative NIO SST anomalies contribute to anomalous cyclonic winds over the western North Pacific by an anomalous east–west vertical circulation north of the equator, favoring more rainfall over northern SCS. These NIO SST anomalies are closely related to preceding La Nina and El Nino events through the “atmospheric bridge”. Thus, the NIO SST anomalies serve as a medium for an indirect impact of preceding ECP SST anomalies on the SCS summer rainfall variability. The ECP SST influence is identified to be dominant after 1990 and the NIO SST impact is relatively more important during 1980s. These Indo-Pacific SST effects are further investigated by conducting numerical experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model. The consistency between the numerical experiments and the observations enhances the credibility of the Indo-Pacific SST influence on the SCS summer rainfall variability.

The present study documents the atmosphere–ocean interaction in interannual variations over the South China Sea (SCS). The atmosphere–ocean relationship displays remarkable seasonality and regionality, with an atmospheric forcing dominant in the northern and central SCS during the local warm season, and an oceanic forcing in the northern SCS during the local cold season. During April–June, the atmospheric impact on the sea surface temperature (SST) change is characterized by a prominent cloud-radiation effect in the central SCS, a wind-evaporation effect in the central and southern SCS, and a wind-driven oceanic effect along the west coast. During November–January, regional convection responds to the SST forcing in the northern SCS through modulation of the low-level convergence and atmospheric stability. Evaluation of the precipitation–SST and precipitation–SST tendency correlation in 24 selected models from CMIP5 indicates that the simulated atmosphere–ocean relationship varies widely among the models. Most models have the worst performance in spring. On average, the models simulate better the atmospheric forcing than the oceanic forcing. Improvements are needed for many models before they can be used to understand the regional atmosphere–ocean interactions in the SCS region.

This study investigates interannual aerosol variations over the Maritime Continent and the western North Pacific Ocean and aerosol–cloud–precipitation relationship during the period 2000–10 based on monthly-mean anomalies. The local aerosol–cloud–precipitation relationship displays strong regional characteristics. The aerosol variation is negatively correlated with cloud and precipitation variation over the Maritime Continent, but is positively correlated with cloud and precipitation variation over the region southeast of Japan. Over broad subtropical oceanic regions, the aerosol variation is positively correlated with cloud variation, but has a weak correlation with precipitation variation. Aerosol variations over the Maritime Continent and over the region southeast of Japan display a biennial feature with an obvious phase lag of about 8 months in the latter region during 2001–07. This biennial feature is attributed to the impacts of El Niño events on aerosol variations in these regions through large-scale circulation and precipitation changes. Around October of El Niño–developing years, the suppressed precipitation over the Maritime Continent favors an aerosol increase by reducing the wet deposition and setting up dry conditions favorable for fire burning. During early summer of El Niño–decaying years, suppressed heating around the Philippines as a delayed response to El Niño warming induces an anomalous lower-level cyclone over the region to the southeast of Japan through an atmospheric teleconnection, leading to an accumulation of aerosol and increase of precipitation. The aerosol–precipitation relationship shows an obvious change with time over eastern China, leading to an overall weak correlation.

The present study documents the relationship between seasonal variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation in the South China Sea (SCS) region. There are strong interactions between the atmosphere and ocean in the seasonal variations of SST and precipitation. During the transition to warm and cold seasons, the SST tendency is primarily contributed by net heat flux dominated by shortwave radiation and latent heat flux with a complementary contribution from ocean advection and upwelling. The contribution of wind-driven oceanic processes depends on the region and is more important in the northern SCS than in the southern SCS. During warm and cold seasons, local SST forcing contributes to regional precipitation by modulating the atmospheric stability and lower-level moisture convergence. The SST difference between the SCS and the western North Pacific influences the convection over the SCS through its modulation of the circulation pattern.