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1. Building resilience to mosquito-borne diseases in the Caribbean.

Author

Lowe, Rachel, Ryan, Sadie J., Mahon, Roché, Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., Trotman, Adrian R., Boodram, Laura-Lee G., Borbor-Cordova, Mercy J., and Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M.

Subjects
CLIMATOLOGY, GOVERNMENT policy, CLIMATE extremes, GOAL (Psychology), ARBOVIRUS diseases, MEDICAL climatology, HEAT waves (Meteorology), FLOOD warning systems
Abstract

Small island developing states in the Caribbean are among the most vulnerable countries on the planet to climate variability and climate change. In the last 3 decades, the Caribbean region has undergone frequent and intense heat waves, storms, floods, and droughts. This has had a detrimental impact on population health and well-being, including an increase in infectious disease outbreaks. Recent advances in climate science have enhanced our ability to anticipate hydrometeorological hazards and associated public health challenges. Here, we discuss progress towards bridging the gap between climate science and public health decision-making in the Caribbean to build health system resilience to extreme climatic events. We focus on the development of climate services to help manage mosquito-transmitted disease epidemics. There are numerous areas of ongoing biological research aimed at better understanding the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases. Here, we emphasise additional factors that affect our ability to operationalise this biological understanding. We highlight a lack of financial resources, technical expertise, data sharing, and formalised partnerships between climate and health communities as major limiting factors to developing sustainable climate services for health. Recommendations include investing in integrated climate, health and mosquito surveillance systems, building regional and local human resource capacities, and designing national and regional cross-sectoral policies and national action plans. This will contribute towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and maximising regional development partnerships and co-benefits for improved health and well-being in the Caribbean. This Perspective article discusses progress towards bridging the gap between climate science and public health decision-making, highlighting the importance of multi-institutional and interdisciplinary collaborations to develop early warning systems for arboviral diseases in the Caribbean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2020
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2. State of the Climate in 2014

Author

Aaron-Morrison, Arlene P., Ackerman, Steven A., Adams, Nicolaus G., Adler, Robert F., Albanil, Adelina, Alfaro, E. J., Allan, Rob, Alves, Lincoln M., Amador, Jorge A., Andreassen, L. M., Arendt, A., Arévalo, Juan, Arndt, Derek S., Arzhanova, N. M., Aschan, M. M., Azorin-Molina, César, Banzon, Viva, Bardin, M. U., Barichivich, Jonathan, Baringer, Molly O., Barreira, Sandra, Baxter, Stephen, Bazo, Juan, Becker, Andreas, Bedka, Kristopher M., Behrenfeld, Michael J., Bell, Gerald D., Belmont, M., Benedetti, Angela, Bernhard, G., Berrisford, Paul, Berry, David I., Bettolli, María L., Bhatt, U. S., Bidegain, Mario, Bill, Brian D., Billheimer, Sam, Bissolli, Peter, Blake, Eric S., Blunden, Jessica, Bosilovich, Michael G., Boucher, Olivier, Boudet, Dagne, Box, J. E., Boyer, Tim, Braathen, Geir O., Bromwich, David H., Brown, R., Bulygina, Olga N., Burgess, D., Calderón, Blanca, Camargo, Suzana J., Campbell, Jayaka D., Cappelen, J., Carrasco, Gualberto, Carter, Brendan R., Chambers, Don P., Chandler, Elise, Christiansen, Hanne H., Christy, John R., Chung, Daniel, Chung, E. S., Cinque, Kathy, Clem, Kyle R., Coelho, Caio A., Cogley, J. G., Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie, Colwell, Steve, Cooper, Owen R., Copland, L., Cosca, Catherine E., Cross, Jessica N., Crotwell, Molly J., Crouch, Jake, Davis, Sean M., De Eyto, Elvira, De Jeu, Richard A.M., De Laat, Jos, Degasperi, Curtis L., Degenstein, Doug, Demircan, M., Derksen, C., Destin, Dale, Di Girolamo, Larry, Di Giuseppe, F., Diamond, Howard J., Dlugokencky, Ed J., Dohan, Kathleen, Dokulil, Martin T., Dolgov, A. V., Dolman, A. Johannes, Domingues, Catia M., Donat, Markus G., Dong, Shenfu, Dorigo, Wouter A., Dortch, Quay, Doucette, Greg, Drozdov, D. S., Ducklow, Hugh, Dunn, Robert J.H., Durán-Quesada, Ana M., Dutton, Geoff S., Ebrahim, A., Elkharrim, M., Elkins, James W., Espinoza, Jhan C., Etienne-Leblanc, Sheryl, Evans, Thomas E., Famiglietti, James S., Farrell, S., Fateh, S., Fausto, Robert S., Fedaeff, Nava, Feely, Richard A., Feng, Z., Fenimore, Chris, Fettweis, X., Fioletov, Vitali E., Flemming, Johannes, Fogarty, Chris T., Fogt, Ryan L., Folland, Chris, Fonseca, C., Fossheim, M., Foster, Michael J., Fountain, Andrew, Francis, S. D., Franz, Bryan A., Frey, Richard A., Frith, Stacey M., Froidevaux, Lucien, Ganter, Catherine, Garzoli, Silvia, Gerland, S., Gobron, Nadine, Goldenberg, Stanley B., Gomez, R. Sorbonne, Goni, Gustavo, Goto, A., Grooß, J. U., Gruber, Alexander, Guard, Charles Chip, Gugliemin, Mauro, Gupta, S. K., Gutiérrez, J. M., Hagos, S., Hahn, Sebastian, Haimberger, Leo, Hakkarainen, J., Hall, Brad D., Halpert, Michael S., Hamlington, Benjamin D., Hanna, E., Hansen, K., Hanssen-Bauer, I., Harris, Ian, Heidinger, Andrew K., Heikkilä, A., Heil, A., Heim, Richard R., Hendricks, S., Hernández, Marieta, Hidalgo, Hugo G., Hilburn, Kyle, Ho, Shu Peng Ben, Holmes, R. M., Hu, Zeng Zhen, Huang, Boyin, Huelsing, Hannah K., Huffman, George J., Hughes, C., Hurst, Dale F., Ialongo, I., Ijampy, J. A., Ingvaldsen, R. B., Inness, Antje, Isaksen, K., Ishii, Masayoshi, Jevrejeva, Svetlana, Jiménez, C., Jin, Xiangze, Johannesen, E., John, Viju, Johnsen, B., Johnson, Bryan, Johnson, Gregory C., Jones, Philip D., Joseph, Annie C., Jumaux, Guillaume, Kabidi, Khadija, Kaiser, Johannes W., Kato, Seiji, Kazemi, A., Keller, Linda M., Kendon, Mike, Kennedy, John, Kerr, Kenneth, Kholodov, A. L., Khoshkam, Mahbobeh, Killick, Rachel, Kim, Hyungjun, Kim, S. J., Kimberlain, Todd B., Klotzbach, Philip J., Knaff, John A., Kobayashi, Shinya, Kohler, J., Korhonen, Johanna, Korshunova, Natalia N., Kovacs, K. M., Kramarova, Natalya, Kratz, D. P., Kruger, Andries, Kruk, Michael C., Kudela, Raphael, Kumar, Arun, Lakatos, M., Lakkala, K., Lander, Mark A., Landsea, Chris W., Lankhorst, Matthias, Lantz, Kathleen, Lazzara, Matthew A., Lemons, P., Leuliette, Eric, L’Heureux, Michelle, Lieser, Jan L., Lin, I. I., Liu, Hongxing, Liu, Yinghui, Locarnini, Ricardo, Loeb, Norman G., Lo Monaco, Claire, Long, Craig S., López Álvarez, Luis Alfonso, Lorrey, Andrew M., Loyola, Diego, Lumpkin, Rick, Luo, Jing Jia, Luojus, K., Lydersen, C., Lyman, John M., Maberly, Stephen C., Maddux, Brent C., Malheiros Ramos, Andrea, Malkova, G. V., Manney, G., Marcellin, Vernie, Marchenko, S. S., Marengo, José A., Marra, John J., Marszelewski, Wlodzimierz, Martens, B., Martínez-Güingla, Rodney, Massom, Robert A., Mata, Mauricio M., Mathis, Jeremy T., May, Linda, Mayer, Michael, Mazloff, Matthew, McBride, Charlotte, McCabe, M. F., McCarthy, M., McClelland, J. W., McGree, Simon, McVicar, Tim R., Mears, Carl A., Meier, W., Meinen, Christopher S., Mekonnen, A., Menéndez, Melisa, Mengistu Tsidu, G., Menzel, W. Paul, Merchant, Christopher J., Meredith, Michael P., Merrifield, Mark A., Metzl, N., Minnis, Patrick, Miralles, Diego G., Mistelbauer, T., Mitchum, Gary T., Monselesan, Didier, Monteiro, Pedro, Montzka, Stephen A., Morice, Colin, Mote, T., Mudryk, L., Mühle, Jens, Mullan, A. Brett, Nash, Eric R., Naveira-Garabato, Alberto C., Nerem, R. Steven, Newman, Paul A., Nieto, Juan José, Noetzli, Jeannette, O’Neel, S., Osborn, Tim J., Overland, J., Oyunjargal, Lamjav, Parinussa, Robert M., Park, E. Hyung, Parker, David, Parrington, M., Parsons, A. Rost, Pasch, Richard J., Pascual-Ramírez, Reynaldo, Paterson, Andrew M., Paulik, Christoph, Pearce, Petra R., Pelto, Mauri S., Peng, Liang, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Perovich, D., Petropavlovskikh, Irina, Pezza, Alexandre B., Phillips, David, Pinty, Bernard, Pitts, Michael C., Pons, M. R., Porter, Avalon O., Primicerio, R., Proshutinsky, A., Quegan, Sean, Quintana, Juan, Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh, Rajeevan, Madhavan, Randriamarolaza, L., Razuvaev, Vyacheslav N., Reagan, James, Reid, Phillip, Reimer, Christoph, Rémy, Samuel, Renwick, James A., Revadekar, Jayashree V., Richter-Menge, J., Riffler, Michael, Rimmer, Alon, Rintoul, Steve, Robinson, David A., Rodell, Matthew, Rodríguez Solís, José L., Romanovsky, Vladimir E., Ronchail, Josyane, Rosenlof, Karen H., Roth, Chris, Rusak, James A., Sabine, Christopher L., Sallée, Jean Bapiste, Sánchez-Lugo, Ahira, Santee, Michelle L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayouri, Amal, Scambos, Ted A., Schemm, Jae, Schladow, S. Geoffrey, Schmid, Claudia, Schmid, Martin, Schmidtko, Sunke, Schreck, Carl J., Selkirk, H. B., Send, Uwe, Sensoy, Serhat, Setzer, Alberto, Sharp, M., Shaw, Adrian, Shi, Lei, Shiklomanov, A. I., Shiklomanov, Nikolai I., Siegel, David A., Signorini, Sergio R., Sima, Fatou, Simmons, Adrian J., Smeets, C. J.P.P., Smith, Sharon L., Spence, Jaqueline M., Srivastava, A. K., Stackhouse, Paul W., Stammerjohn, Sharon, Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, Stella, José L., Stengel, Martin, Stennett-Brown, Roxann, Stephenson, Tannecia S., Strahan, Susan, Streletskiy, D. A., Sun-Mack, Sunny, Swart, Sebastiaan, Sweet, William, Talley, Lynne D., Tamar, Gerard, Tank, S. E., Taylor, Michael A., Tedesco, M., Teubner, Katrin, Thoman, R. L., Thompson, Philip, Thomson, L., Timmermans, M. L., Tirnanes, Joaquin A., Tobin, Skie, Trachte, Katja, Trainer, Vera L., Tretiakov, M., Trewin, Blair C., Trotman, Adrian R., Tschudi, M., Van As, D., Van De Wal, R. S.W., van der A., Ronald J., Van Der Schalie, Robin, Van Der Schrier, Gerard, Van Der Werf, Guido R., Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., Velicogna, I., Verburg, Piet, Vigneswaran, Bala, Vincent, Lucie A., Volkov, Denis, Vose, Russell S., Wagner, Wolfgang, Wåhlin, Anna, Wahr, J., Walsh, J., Wang, Chunzai, Wang, Junhong, Wang, Lei, Wang, M., Wang, Sheng Hung, Wanninkhof, Rik, Watanabe, Shohei, Weber, Mark, Weller, Robert A., Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A., Whitewood, Robert, Wijffels, Susan E., Wilber, Anne C., Wild, Jeanette D., Willett, Kate M., Williams, Michael J.M., Willie, Shem, Wolken, G., Wong, Takmeng, Wood, E. F., Woolway, R. Iestyn, Wouters, B., Xue, Yan, Yamada, Ryuji, Yim, So Young, Yin, Xungang, Young, Steven H., Yu, Lisan, Zahid, H., Zambrano, Eduardo, Zhang, Peiqun, Zhao, Guanguo, Zhou, Lin, Ziemke, Jerry R., Love-Brotak, S. Elizabeth, Gilbert, Kristin, Maycock, Tom, Osborne, Susan, Sprain, Mara, Veasey, Sara W., Ambrose, Barbara J., Griffin, Jessicca, Misch, Deborah J., Riddle, Deborah B., Young, Teresa, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Earth and Climate

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Perspective (graphical), 15. Life on land, 01 natural sciences, El Niño Southern Oscillation, 13. Climate action, Climatology, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Environmental science, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Most of the dozens of essential climate variables monitored each year in this report continued to follow their long-term trends in 2014, with several setting new records. Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-the major greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-once again all reached record high average atmospheric concentrations for the year. Carbon dioxide increased by 1.9 ppm to reach a globally averaged value of 397.2 ppm for 2014. Altogether, 5 major and 15 minor greenhouse gases contributed 2.94 W m-2 of direct radiative forcing, which is 36% greater than their contributions just a quarter century ago. Accompanying the record-high greenhouse gas concentrations was nominally the highest annual global surface temperature in at least 135 years of modern record keeping, according to four independent observational analyses. The warmth was distributed widely around the globe's land areas, Europe observed its warmest year on record by a large margin, with close to two dozen countries breaking their previous national temperature records; many countries in Asia had annual temperatures among their 10 warmest on record; Africa reported above-average temperatures across most of the continent throughout 2014; Australia saw its third warmest year on record, following record heat there in 2013; Mexico had its warmest year on record; and Argentina and Uruguay each had their second warmest year on record. Eastern North America was the only major region to observe a below-average annual temperature. But it was the oceans that drove the record global surface temperature in 2014. Although 2014 was largely ENSO-neutral, the globally averaged sea surface temperature (SST) was the highest on record. The warmth was particularly notable in the North Pacific Ocean where SST anomalies signaled a transition from a negative to positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. In the winter of 2013/14, unusually warm water in the northeast Pacific was associated with elevated ocean heat content anomalies and elevated sea level in the region. Globally, upper ocean heat content was record high for the year, reflecting the continued increase of thermal energy in the oceans, which absorb over 90% of Earth's excess heat from greenhouse gas forcing. Owing to both ocean warming and land ice melt contributions, global mean sea level in 2014 was also record high and 67 mm greater than the 1993 annual mean, when satellite altimetry measurements began. Sea surface salinity trends over the past decade indicate that salty regions grew saltier while fresh regions became fresher, suggestive of an increased hydrological cycle over the ocean expected with global warming. As in previous years, these patterns are reflected in 2014 subsurface salinity anomalies as well. With a now decade-long trans-basin instrument array along 26°N, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shows a decrease in transport of-4.2 ± 2.5 Sv decade-1. Precipitation was quite variable across the globe. On balance, precipitation over the world's oceans was above average, while below average across land surfaces. Drought continued in southeastern Brazil and the western United States. Heavy rain during April-June led to devastating floods in Canada's Eastern Prairies. Above-normal summer monsoon rainfall was observed over the southern coast of West Africa, while drier conditions prevailed over the eastern Sahel. Generally, summer monsoon rainfall over eastern Africa was above normal, except in parts of western South Sudan and Ethiopia. The south Asian summer monsoon in India was below normal, with June record dry. Across the major tropical cyclone basins, 91 named storms were observed during 2014, above the 1981-2010 global average of 82. The Eastern/Central Pacific and South Indian Ocean basins experienced significantly above-normal activity in 2014; all other basins were either at or below normal. The 22 named storms in the Eastern/Central Pacific was the basin's most since 1992. Similar to 2013, the North Atlantic season was quieter than most years of the last two decades with respect to the number of storms, despite the absence of El Niño conditions during both years. In higher latitudes and at higher elevations, increased warming continued to be visible in the decline of glacier mass balance, increasing permafrost temperatures, and a deeper thawing layer in seasonally frozen soil. In the Arctic, the 2014 temperature over land areas was the fourth highest in the 115-year period of record and snow melt occurred 20-30 days earlier than the 1998-2010 average. The Greenland Ice Sheet experienced extensive melting in summer 2014. The extent of melting was above the 1981-2010 average for 90% of the melt season, contributing to the second lowest average summer albedo over Greenland since observations began in 2000 and a record-low albedo across the ice sheet for August. On the North Slope of Alaska, new record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at four of five permafrost observatories. In September, Arctic minimum sea ice extent was the sixth lowest since satellite records began in 1979. The eight lowest sea ice extents during this period have occurred in the last eight years. Conversely, in the Antarctic, sea ice extent countered its declining trend and set several new records in 2014, including record high monthly mean sea ice extent each month from April to November. On 20 September, a record large daily Antarctic sea ice extent of 20.14 × 106 km2 occurred. The 2014 Antarctic stratospheric ozone hole was 20.9 million km2 when averaged from 7 September to 13 October, the sixth smallest on record and continuing a decrease, albeit statistically insignificant, in area since 1998.

Published
2015

3. An Inter-Comparison of the Holiday Climate Index (HCI:Beach) and the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) to Explain Canadian Tourism Arrivals to the Caribbean.

Author

Rutty, Michelle, Scott, Daniel, Matthews, Lindsay, Burrowes, Ravidya, Trotman, Adrian, Mahon, Roché, and Charles, Amanda

Subjects
BEACHES, CLIMATOLOGY, TOURISM, BEACH erosion, TEST validity, HOLIDAYS, TOURIST attractions, HURRICANE Irma, 2017
Abstract

Through an empirical investigation of the historical relationship between the destination climate and tourist arrivals in the Caribbean, this study presents the first revealed preference evaluation of a climate index informed by tourists' stated climatic preferences for coastal-beach tourism (i.e., a sun-sand-surf or 3S travel market). The goal of this multi-organization collaboration was to examine the potential application of a newly designed climate index—the Holiday Climate Index (HCI):Beach—for three Caribbean destinations (Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Saint Lucia). This paper provides an overview of the evolution of climate indices, including the development of the (HCI):Beach. To test the validity of climate indices for a beach travel market, daily climate ratings based on outputs from the Tourism Climate Index and the HCI were correlated with monthly arrivals data from Canada (a key source market) at an island destination scale. The results underscore the strength of the new index, with each destination scoring consistently higher using the HCI:Beach, including a stronger relationship (R2) between index scores and tourist arrivals. These findings demonstrate the value of combining stated and revealed preference methodologies to predict tourism demand and highlight opportunities for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2020
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