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The large uncertainty in future global glacier volume projections partly results from a substantial range in future climate conditions projected by global climate models. This study addresses the effect of global and regional differences in climate input data on the projected twenty-first century glacier contribution to sea-level rise. Glacier volume changes are calculated with a surface mass balance model combined with volume-area scaling, applied to 89 glaciers in different climatic regions. The mass balance model is based on a simplified energy balance approach, with separated contributions by net solar radiation and the combined other fluxes. Future mass balance is calculated from anomalies in air temperature, precipitation and atmospheric transmissivity, taken from eight global climate models forced with the A1B emission scenario. Regional and global sea-level contributions are obtained by scaling the volume changes at the modelled glaciers to all glaciers larger than 0.1 km 2 outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. This results in a global value of 0.102 ± 0.028 m (multi-model mean and standard deviation) relative sea-level equivalent for the period 2012–2099, corresponding to 18 ± 5 % of the estimated total volume of glaciers. Glaciers in the Antarctic, Alaska, Central Asia and Greenland together account for 65 ± 4 % of the total multi-model mean projected sea-level rise. The projected sea-level contribution is 35 ± 17 % larger when only anomalies in air temperature are taken into account, demonstrating an important compensating effect by increased precipitation and possibly reduced atmospheric transmissivity. The variability in projected precipitation and atmospheric transmissivity changes is especially large in the Arctic regions, making the sea-level contribution for these regions particularly sensitive to the climate model used. Including additional uncertainties in the modelling procedure and the input data, the total uncertainty estimate for the future projections becomes ±0.063 m. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sensitivity of the surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet to a change in temperature and a change in the sea ice extent is studied with a regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO) using a horizontal grid spacing of 55 km. The model is driven at its lateral boundaries by the reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Sea ice extent and sea surface temperature are prescribed from observations. A control integration is performed for the 5-yr period 1980-84. In a 5-yr sensitivity run, the model is forced by a 2-K increase in temperature at the sea surface and at the lateral boundaries of the model domain, and a reduction in the sea ice extent. The relative humidity at the lateral boundaries is kept constant. The calculated surface mass balance of the grounded Antarctic ice is found to increase by 30% due to the 2K warming and the retreat of the sea ice. This value is two to three times as large as previous estimates, which were based on simplified atmospheric models and on statistical relations between the surface temperature and the surface mass balance. Additional sensitivity runs show that applying the forcing throughout the atmosphere in the lateral boundary zone has a more significant effect than applying the forcing at the sea surface, especially for the interior of the ice sheet. If only an increase in the sea surface temperature or a retreat of the sea ice is prescribed, the increase in temperature and specific humidity is restricted to the lowest 2 km of the atmosphere above the ocean. Sensitivity runs with forcings in the range of -5 to +10 K indicate that the commonly used assumption stating that the surface mass balance responds in proportion to the change in continental saturation specific humidity at the inversion height is an oversimplification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A regional atmospheric climate model with a horizontal grid spacing of 55 km has been used to simulate the Antarctic atmosphere during an austral summer period. ECMWF reanalyses were used to force the atmospheric prognostic variables from the lateral boundaries. Sea surface temperatures and the sea ice mask in the model were prescribed from observations. Parameterizations of the physical processes were taken from the ECHAM4 general circulation model. Before applying the model to Antarctic conditions, several adjustments had been made to the original code. In particular, a better correspondence between model output and measurements was accomplished by 1) the use of a fixed value of 0.8 for the surface albedo rather than applying an albedo that linearly rises with surface temperature and 2) the use of the volumetric heat capacity and the thermal diffusivity of snow rather than employing the values for ice. The model is evaluated for the period 14-19 January 1993 (P1) on the basis of an extensive dataset compiled from measurements made at a site (Svea) in Dronning Maud Land. This dataset contains boundary layer temperature and specific humidity profiles, snow temperatures, and surface heat fluxes. The surface fluxes were obtained from direct measurements combined with an energy balance model. The atmospheric temperature profiles simulated at the grid points corresponding most closely to Svea are in good agreement with the measured profiles, although the model slightly overestimates the vertical temperature gradient. The model probably underestimates the turbulent transport of heat and moisture to atmospheric layers above roughly 200 m. At Svea a cloud cover of less than 0.5 octas was observed during P1. The model overestimates the cloud cover, which results in an underestimation of shortwave and an overestimation of longwave radiative fluxes at the surface. The simulated values for the net radiative fluxes, the heat flux into the snow, and the turbulent.. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reports on a workshop held during the Climate Conference in August 2001 at Utrecht University in the Netherlands regarding the katabatic flows over glaciers and ice sheets. Effects of turbulence on the glacier surface and atmosphere; Reasons behind the existence of katabatic flows; Discussion on the spatial scale of glaciers.