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The El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the earth’s dominant mode of inter- annual climate variability. It alternates between warm (El Nino) and cold (La Nina) states, with global impacts on climate and society. This study provides new ENSO reconstructions based on a large, updated collection of proxy records. We use a novel reconstruction approa ch that employs running principal components, which allows us to take covariance changes between proxy records into account and thereby identify periods of likely teleconnection changes. Using different implementations of the principal component analysis enables us to identify periods within the last millennium when quantifications of ENSO are most robust. These periods range from 1580 to the end of the 17th century and from 1825 to present. We incorporate an assessment of consistency among our new and existing ENSO reconstructions leading to five short phases of low agreement among the reconstructions between 1700 and 1786. We find a consistent spatial pattern of proxy covariance during these four phases, differing from the structure seen over the instrumental period. This pattern points towards changes in teleconnections in the west Pacific/Australasian region, compared to the present state. Using our new reconstructions, we find a significant response of ENSO towards more La Nina-like conditions 3–5 years after major volcanic events. We further show that our new reconstructions and existing reconstructions largely agree on the state of ENSO during volcanic eruptions in the years 1695 and 1784, which helps put into perspective the climatic response to these events. During all other large volcan ic eruptions of the last 1000 years, there is no reconstruction coherency with regard to the state of ENSO.

The climate of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) is strongly influenced by variations in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Because of the limited length of instrumental records in most parts of the SH, very little is known about the relationship between these two key modes of variability over time. Using proxy-based reconstructions and last-millennium climate model simulations, we find that ENSO and SAM indices are mostly negatively correlated over the past millennium. Pseudo-proxy experiments indicate that currently available proxy records are able to reliably capture ENSO–SAM relationships back to at least 1600 CE. Palaeoclimate reconstructions show mostly negative correlations back to about 1400 CE. An ensemble of last-millennium climate model simulations confirms this negative correlation, showing a stable correlation of approximately −0.3. Despite this generally negative relationship we do find intermittent periods of positive ENSO–SAM correlations in individual model simulations and in the palaeoclimate reconstructions. We do not find evidence that these relationship fluctuations are caused by exogenous forcing nor by a consistent climate pattern. However, we do find evidence that strong negative correlations are associated with strong positive (negative) anomalies in the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Amundsen Sea Low during periods when SAM and ENSO indices are of opposite (equal) sign.

The climate of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) is strongly influenced by variations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Due to the temporally very limited instrumental records in most parts of the SH, very little is known about the relationship between these two key modes of variability and its stability over time. Here, we use proxy-based reconstructions and climate model simulations to quantify changes in tropical-extratropical SH teleconnections as represented by the correlation between the ENSO and SAM indices. Reconstructions indicate mostly negative correlations back to around 1400 CE confirming the pattern seen in the instrumental record over the last few decades. An ensemble of last millennium simulations of the model CESM1 confirms this pattern with very stable ensemble mean correlations around −0.3. Individual forced simulations, the pre-industrial control run and the proxy-based reconstructions indicate intermittent periods of positive correlations and particularly strong negative correlations. The fluctuations of the ENSO-SAM correlations are not significantly related to solar nor volcanic forcing in both proxy and model data, indicating that they are driven by internal variability in the climate system. Pseudoproxy experiments indicate that the currently available proxy records are able to reproduce the tropical-extratropical teleconnection patterns back to around 1600 CE. We analyse the spatial temperature and sea level pressure patterns during periods of positive and particularly strong negative teleconnections in the CESM model. Results indicate no consistent pattern during periods where the ENSO-SAM teleconnection changes its sign. However, periods of very strong negative SH teleconnections are associated with negative temperature anomalies across large fractions of the extra-tropical Pacific and a strengthening of the Aleutian Low.

Rapid ecosystem transitions and adverse effects on ecosystem services as responses to combined climate and human impacts are of major concern. Yet few long-term (i.e. >60 years) quantitative observational time series exist, particularly for ecosystems that have a long history of human intervention. Here, we combine three major environmental pressures (land use, nutrients and erosion) with quantitative summer and winter climate reconstructions and climate model simulations to explore the system dynamics, resilience and the role of disturbance regimes in varved eutrophic Lake Żabińskie (NE Poland) since AD 1000. The comparison between these independent sources of information allows us to establish the coherence and points of disagreements between such data sets. We find that climate reconstructions capture noticeably natural forced climate variability, while internal variability is the dominant source of variability during most parts of the last millennium at the regional scale, precisely at which climate models seem to underestimate forced variability. Using different multivariate analyses and change point detection techniques, we identify ecosystem changes through time and shifts between rather stable states and highly variable ones. Prior to AD 1600, the lake ecosystem was characterised by high stability and resilience against observed natural climate variability. During this period, the anthropogenic fingerprint was small; the lake ecosystem was buffered against the combined human and natural disturbance. In contrast, lake–ecosystem conditions started to fluctuate across a broad range of states after AD 1600. The period AD 1745–1886 represents the phase with the strongest human disturbance of the catchment–lake ecosystem. During that time, the range of natural climate variability did not increase. Analyses of the frequency of change points in the multi-proxy data set suggest that the last 400 years were highly variable and increased vulnerability of the ecosystem to the anthropogenic disturbances. This led to significant rapid ecosystem transformations.

In this study we present a quantitative, high resolution reconstruction of past austral winter length in the Chilean Andes at 38°S from AD 1920 to 2009. For Laguna Escondida, a nearly pristine lake situated on the flanks of the Andes at 1740 m above sea level, past variability in the duration of the winter season (Days T4 °C) was reconstructed. Because high elevation meteorological stations are absent in this region, the reconstruction provides novel insights into recent temperature trends in the central–southern Andes. As a cold-season temperature proxy, we used chrysophyte stomatocysts. This novel proxy for cold season temperature was so far applied successfully in the European Alps and Pyrenees but has not yet been tested in the Southern Hemisphere. The reconstruction in this study was based on a newly developed Transfer Function to estimate Days T4 °C (number of consecutive days with surface water temperatures at or below 4 °C) from sedimentary stomatocyst assemblages (R2boot = 0.8, RMSEPboot = 28.7 days (= half the standard deviation)). To develop a high quality TF model, sediment traps and thermistors were placed in thirty remote lakes along an altitude gradient (420–2040 m a.s.l.). Complete materials and data were collected in 24 lakes after one year. Detailed statistical analyses indicate that modern stomatocysts primarily respond to the length of the cold season. The TF model was then applied to the sedimentary stomatocysts from a 210Pb-dated short core of L. Escondida. Comparison to independent reanalysis data showed that reconstructed changes in Days T4°C provides detailed information on winter–spring temperature variability since AD 1920. The reconstruction shows that recent warming (onset in AD 1980) in the southern Chilean Andes was not exceptional in the context of the past century. This is in strong contrast to studies from the Northern Hemisphere. The finding is also in contrast to the cooling temperature trends which were detected using meteorological measurement data in low altitude sites along the Chilean coast. This finding confirms that coastal meteorological station data in this region do not reliably reflect recent temperature trends at high altitudes. Moreover, it implies a southward shift of the northern border of the Westerlies wind belt. This study clearly illustrates the importance of quantitative, high resolution studies from remote sites, in particular at high elevation mountain areas.

The aim of climate research is to increase our knowledge about the nature of climate and the causes of climate variability and change. Increasing our understanding of the physical processes on various spatial and temporal scales will ultimately reduce uncertainty and improve our capabilities to predict climate on monthly to seasonal timescales and allow us to separate the anthropogenic and natural causes of long term climate change.

Inferred temperatures from chironomids preserved in the varved sediment of Lake Silvaplana in the Eastern Swiss Alps were compared with instrumental data obtained from a meteorological station in Sils-Maria, on the shore of Lake Silvaplana, for the time interval 1850–2001. At near-annual resolution, the general patterns of chironomid-inferred temperature changes followed the meteorological record over the last ∼150 years (rPearson = 0.65, P = 0.01) and 87% of the inferences had deviations from the instrumental data below the root-mean-square error of prediction (RMSEP). When the inferences were compared with a 2-year running mean in the meteorological data, 94% of the inferences had differences with the instrumental data below the RMSEP, indicating that more than half of the inaccurate inferences may have been due to errors in varve counting. Larger deviations from the instrumental data were also obtained from samples with low percentages of fossil taxa represented in the training set used for temperature reconstruction and/or assemblages with poor fit to temperature. Changes in total phosphorus (TP, as inferred by diatoms) and/or greater precipitation were possible factors affecting the accuracy of the temperature reconstruction. Although these factors might affect the quantitative estimates, obtaining >80% accurate temperature inferences suggests that chironomid analysis is a reliable tool for reconstructing mean July air temperature quantitatively over the last ∼150 years in Lake Silvaplana.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the leading mode of atmospheric interannual variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extra-tropics. Here, we assess the stationarity of SAM spatial correlations with instrumental and paleoclimate proxy data for the past millennium. The instrumental period shows that temporal non-stationarities in SAM teleconnections are not consistent across the SH land areas. This suggests that the influence of the SAM index is modulated by regional effects. However, within key-regions with good proxy data coverage (South America, Tasmania, New Zealand), teleconnections are mostly stationary over the instrumental period. Using different stationarity criteria for proxy record selection, we provide new austral summer and annual mean SAM index reconstructions over the last millennium. Our summer SAM reconstructions are very robust to changes in proxy record selection and the selection of the calibration period, particularly on the multi-decadal timescale. In contrast, the weaker performance and lower agreement in the annual mean SAM reconstructions point towards changing teleconnection patterns that may be particularly important outside the summer months. Our results clearly portend that the temporal stationarity of the proxy-climate relationships should be taken into account in the design of comprehensive regional and hemispherical climate reconstructions. The summer SAM reconstructions show no significant relationship to solar, greenhouse gas and volcanic forcing, with the exception of an extremely strong negative anomaly following the AD 1257 Samalas eruption. Furthermore, reconstructed pre-industrial summer SAM trends are very similar to trends obtained by model control simulations. We find that recent trends in the summer SAM lie outside the 5–95% range of pre-industrial natural variability. Fil: Dätwyler, Christoph. University of Bern. Centre for Climate Change Research. Institute of Geography and Oeschger ; Suiza Fil: Neukom, Raphael. University of Bern. Centre for Climate Change Research. Institute of Geography and Oeschger ; Suiza Fil: Abram, Nerilie J.. Australian National University; Australia Fil: Gallant, Ailie J. E.. Monash University; Australia Fil: Grosjean, Martin. University of Bern. Centre for Climate Change Research. Institute of Geography and Oeschger ; Suiza Fil: Jacques-Coper, Martín. Universidad de Concepción; Chile Fil: Karoly, David J.. University of Melbourne; Australia Fil: Villalba, Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina

High-resolution records of calibrated proxy data for the past millennium are fundamental to place current changes into the context of pre-industrial natural forced and unforced variability. Although the need for regional spatially-explicit comprehensive reconstructions is widely recognized, the proxy data sources are still scarce, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere and especially for South America. We present a 600-year long warm season temperature record from varved sediments of Lago Plomo, a proglacial lake of the Northern Patagonian Ice field in Southern Chile (46°59′S, 72°52′W, 203 m a.s.l.). The thickness of the bright summer sediment layer relative to the dark winter layer (measured as total brightness; % reflectance 400–730 nm) is calibrated against warm season SONDJF temperature (1900–2009; r = 0.58, p (aut) = 0.056, RE = 0.52; CE = 0.15, RMSEP = 0.28 °C; five-year triangular filtered data). In Lago Plomo, warm summer temperatures lead to enhanced glacier melt and suspended sediment transport, which results in thicker light summer layers and to brighter sediments. Although Patagonia shows pronounced regional differences in decadal temperature trends and variability, the 600 years temperature reconstruction from Lago Plomo compares favourably with other regional/continental temperature records, but also emphasizes significant regional differences for which no data and information existed so far. These regional differences seem to be real as they are also reflected in modern climate data sets (1900–2010). The reconstruction shows pronounced subdecadal – multidecadal variability with cold phases during parts of the Little Ice Age (16th and 18th centuries) and in the beginning of the 20th century. The most prominent warm phase is the 19th century which is as warm as the second half of the 20th century. The exceptional summer warmth AD 1780–1810 is also found in other archives of Northern Patagonia and Central Chile. Our record shows the delayed 20th century warming in the Southern Hemisphere. The comparison between winter precipitation and summer temperature (inter-seasonal coupling) from Lago Plomo reveals alternating phases with parallel and contrasting decadal trends of winter precipitation and summer temperature (positive and negative running correlations R winter PP; summer TT ). This observation from the sediment proxy data is also confirmed by two sets of reanalysis data for the 20th century. Reanalysis data show that phases with negative correlations between winter precipitation and summer temperature (e.g., dry winters and warm summers) at Lago Plomo are characteristic for periods when circumpolar Westerly flow is displaced southward and enhanced around 60°S.

Chrysophyte cysts are recognized as powerful proxies of cold-season temperatures. In this paper we use the relationship between chrysophyte assemblages and the number of days below 4 °C (DB4 °C) in the epilimnion of a lake in northern Poland to develop a transfer function and to reconstruct winter severity in Poland for the last millennium. DB4 °C is a climate variable related to the length of the winter. Multivariate ordination techniques were used to study the distribution of chrysophytes from sediment traps of 37 low-land lakes distributed along a variety of environmental and climatic gradients in northern Poland. Of all the environmental variables measured, stepwise variable selection and individual Redundancy analyses (RDA) identified DB4 °C as the most important variable for chrysophytes, explaining a portion of variance independent of variables related to water chemistry (conductivity, chlorides, K, sulfates), which were also important. A quantitative transfer function was created to estimate DB4 °C from sedimentary assemblages using partial least square regression (PLS). The two-component model (PLS-2) had a coefficient of determination of R cross 2 = 0.58, with root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP, based on leave-one-out) of 3.41 days. The resulting transfer function was applied to an annually-varved sediment core from Lake Żabinskie, providing a new sub-decadal quantitative reconstruction of DB4 °C with high chronological accuracy for the period AD 1000–2010. During Medieval Times (AD 1180–1440) winters were generally shorter (warmer) except for a decade with very long and severe winters around AD 1260–1270 (following the AD 1258 volcanic eruption). The 16th and 17th centuries and the beginning of the 19th century experienced very long severe winters. Comparison with other European cold-season reconstructions and atmospheric indices for this region indicates that large parts of the winter variability (reconstructed DB4 °C) is due to the interplay between the oscillations of the zonal flow controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the influence of continental anticyclonic systems (Siberian High, East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern). Differences with other European records are attributed to geographic climatological differences between Poland and Western Europe (Low Countries, Alps). Striking correspondence between the combined volcanic and solar forcing and the DB4 °C reconstruction prior to the 20th century suggests that winter climate in Poland responds mostly to natural forced variability (volcanic and solar) and the influence of unforced variability is low.

Chironomids preserved in varved Lake Żabinskie (54°07′54.5″ N; 21°59′01.1″ E; 120 m a.s.l), northeastern Poland, were used to reconstruct mean-August air temperature since 1896 AD at annual (1949–2011 AD) and at 3–4 year resolutions (1896–1948 AD). This is one of very few studies using chironomids at such high temporal resolution, for a total of 130 sediment samples analyzed. To infer temperature a combined (Northeastern Canada and Poland) transfer function was developed. This transfer function had 112 lakes (50 from Poland, 72 from Canada) and 95 taxa. The mean-August-air temperature gradient was 23.5 °C. The coefficient of determination (r2jack) was 0.88, the root-mean-square error of prediction (RMSEP) was 1.30 °C and the maximum bias was 2.08 °C. The average mean August air temperature measured during the 1961–1990 AD reference period was 16.3 °C and the chironomid-inferred average temperature for the same period was 16.6 °C. For the 1981–2010 AD reference period, the temperatures were 1 °C warmer (i.e. measured = 17.3 °C; inferred = 17.6 °C). The differences of only 0.3 °C between the measured and the inferred temperatures during the reference periods were a first indication that the merged transfer function could provide accurate estimates of mean August air temperature. Chironomid-inferred mean August air temperatures since 1896 AD had strong relationships with instrumental data at near-annual resolution (rPearson = 0.74, pcorr Although the RMSEP of the transfer function was higher than most changes recorded, the average difference between the instrumental and the inferred mean August air temperatures was 0.75 °C. The results of this study suggest that not only do chironomids reconstruct the right pattern in temperature changes (83% of the inferences recorded the same temperature increase or decrease than the instrumental data) they can also infer changes with the right amplitude (61% of the inferences had differences with the instrumental data below 0.7 °C). This study is one more example of the possible accuracy of chironomids to reconstruct climate, at least for the past 100 years and at this site.

The Holocene Thermal Maximum with peak temperatures prior to 7 ka BP is mostly accentuated in the Northern Hemisphere, still visible in the Southern Hemisphere and possibly did not exist in the tropics. Between this period and the modern warming a remarkable negative temperature trend occurred in the Northern Hemisphere, which was probably the effect of a decreasing orbital-induced insolation during the boreal summer. On average the Northern Hemisphere humidity–precipitation records do not show any significant trend. A mechanistic explanation for the multi-decadal- to century-scale Holocene cold relapses, which mainly occurred in the Atlantic–European regions, exists for only the early Holocene cooling events, which are probably the result of a collapse of the meridional overturning circulation owing to freshwater outbursts from the Laurentide ice sheet. Possibly, the late Holocene cold events after c . 4 ka BP are influenced by the covarying influence of major tropical volcanic eruptions and Grand Solar Minima.

Changes in climate affected human societies throughout the last millennium. While European cold periods in the 17th and 18th century have been assessed in detail, earlier cold periods received much less attention due to sparse information available. New evidence from proxy archives, historical documentary sources and climate model simulations permit us to provide an interdisciplinary, systematic assessment of an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century. Our assessment includes the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping extreme climatic conditions and the impacts on and responses of the medieval society in north-western and central Europe. Climate reconstructions from a multitude of natural and anthropogenic archives indicate that the 1430s were the coldest decade in north-western and central Europe in the 15th century. This decade is characterised by cold winters and average to warm summers resulting in a strong seasonal cycle in temperature. Results from comprehensive climate models indicate consistently that these conditions occurred by chance due to the partly chaotic internal variability within the climate system. External forcing like volcanic eruptions tends to reduce simulated temperature seasonality and cannot explain the reconstructions. The strong seasonal cycle in temperature reduced food production and led to increasing food prices, a subsistence crisis and a famine in parts of Europe. Societies were not prepared to cope with failing markets and interrupted trade routes. In response to the crisis, authorities implemented numerous measures of supply policy and adaptation such as the installation of grain storage capacities to be prepared for future food production shortfalls., Kathrin M. Keller, Sandro Blumer, Fortunat Joos and Christoph C. Raible acknowledge support from the Swiss National Science Foundation through project 200020_159563.

This study presents a proxy-based, quantitative reconstruction of cold-season (mean October to May, TOct–May) air temperatures covering nearly the entire last millennium (AD 1060–2003, some hiatuses). The reconstruction was based on subfossil chrysophyte stomatocyst remains in the varved sediments of high-Alpine Lake Silvaplana, eastern Swiss Alps (46°27’N, 9°48′W, 1791 m a.s.l.). Previous studies have demonstrated the reliability of this proxy by comparison to meteorological data. Cold-season air temperatures could therefore be reconstructed quantitatively, at a high resolution (5-yr) and with high chronological accuracy. Spatial correlation analysis suggests that the reconstruction reflects cold season climate variability over the high- Alpine region and substantial parts of central and western Europe. Cold-season temperatures were characterized by a relatively stable first part of the millennium until AD 1440 (2σ of 5-yr mean values = 0.7 °C) and highly variable TOct–May after that (AD 1440–1900, 2σ of 5-yr mean values = 1.3 °C). Recent decades (AD, 1991-present) were unusually warm in the context of the last millennium (exceeding the 2σ-range of the mean decadal TOct–May) but this warmth was not unprecedented. The coolest decades occurred from AD 1510–1520 and AD 1880–1890. The timing of extremely warm and cold decades is generally in good agreement with documentary data representing Switzerland and central European lowlands. The transition from relatively stable to highly variable TOct–May coincided with large changes in atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic region. Comparison of reconstructed cold season temperatures to the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) during the past 1000 years showed that the relatively stable and warm conditions at the study site until AD 1440 coincided with a persistent positive mode of the NAO. We propose that the transition to large TOct–May variability around AD 1440 was linked to the subsequent absence of this persistent zonal flow pattern, which would allow other climatic drivers to gain importance in the study area. From AD 1440–1900, the similarity of reconstructed TOct–May to reconstructed air pressure in the Siberian High suggests a relatively strong influence of continental anticyclonic systems on Alpine cold season climate parameters during periods when westerly airflow was subdued. A more continental type of atmospheric circulation thus seems to be characteristic for the Little Ice Age in Europe. Comparison of Toct–May to summer temperature reconstructions from the same study site shows that, as expected, summer and cold season temperature trends and variability differed completely throughout nearly the entire last 1000 years. Since AD 1980, however, summer and cold season temperatures show a simultaneous, strong increase, which is unprecedented in the context of the last millennium. We suggest that the most likely explanation for this recent trend is anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing.

High-resolution reconstructions of climate variability that cover the past millennia are necessary to improve the understanding of natural and anthropogenic climate change across the globe. Although numerous records are available for the mid- and high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, global assessments are still compromised by the scarcity of data from the Southern Hemisphere. This is particularly the case for the tropical and subtropical areas. In addition, high elevation sites in the South American Andes may provide insight into the vertical structure of climate change in the mid-troposphere. This study presents a 3000 yr-long austral summer (November to February) temperature reconstruction derived from the 210Pb- and 14C-dated organic sediments of Laguna Chepical (32°16' S, 70°30' W, 3050 m a.s.l.), a high-elevation glacial lake in the subtropical Andes of central Chile. Scanning reflectance spectroscopy in the visible light range provided the spectral index R570/R630, which reflects the clay mineral content in lake sediments. For the calibration period (AD 1901–2006), the R570/R630 data were regressed against monthly meteorological reanalysis data, showing that this proxy was strongly and significantly correlated with mean summer (NDJF) temperatures (R3 yr = −0.63, padj = 0.01). This calibration model was used to make a quantitative temperature reconstruction back to 1000 BC. The reconstruction (with a model error RMSEPboot of 0.33 °C) shows that the warmest decades of the past 3000 yr occurred during the calibration period. The 19th century (end of the Little Ice Age (LIA)) was cool. The prominent warmth reconstructed for the 18th century, which was also observed in other records from this area, seems systematic for subtropical and southern South America but remains difficult to explain. Except for this warm period, the LIA was generally characterized by cool summers. Back to AD 1400, the results from this study compare remarkably well to low altitude records from the Chilean Central Valley and southern South America. However, the reconstruction from Laguna Chepical does not show a warm Medieval Climate Anomaly during the 12–13th century, which is consistent with records from tropical South America. The Chepical record also indicates substantial cooling prior to 800 BC. This coincides with well-known regional as well as global glacier advances which have been attributed to a grand solar minimum. This study thus provides insight into the climatic drivers and temperature patterns in a region for which currently very few data are available. It also shows that since ca. AD 1400, long-term temperature patterns were generally similar at low and high altitudes in central Chile.

Past global climate changes had strong regional expression. To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia. The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century. At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them. There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between AD 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century. The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions. Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period AD 1971?2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years. Fil: Ahmed, Moinuddin. Federal Urdu University of Arts, Science and Technology. Department of Botany; Pakistán Fil: Anchukaitis, Kevin J.. Columbia University. Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory; Estados Unidos. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; Estados Unidos Fil: Asrat, Asfawossen . Addis Ababa University. School of Earth Sciences; Etiopía Fil: Borgaonkar, Hemant P.. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology; India Fil: Braida, Martina . University of Trieste. Dipartimento di Matematica e Geoscienze; Italia Fil: Buckley, Brendan M. . Columbia University. Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory; Estados Unidos Fil: Ulf Büntgen. Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL; Suiza Fil: Chase, Brian M.. Université Montpellier. Département Paléoenvironnements et Paléoclimats (PAL); Francia. University of Bergen. Department of Archaeology, History, Cultural Studies and Religion; Noruega Fil: Christie, Duncan A. . Universidad Austral de Chile. Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global; Chile. Universidad de Chile. Center for Climate and Resilience Research; Chile Fil: Cook, Edward R.. Columbia University. Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory; Argentina Fil: Curran, Mark A. J.. Australian Antarctic Division; Australia. University of Tasmania. Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre; Australia Fil: Diaz, Henry F. . National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, ; Estados Unidos Fil: Esper, Jan. Johannes Gutenberg University. Department of Geography,; Alemania Fil: Fan, Ze-Xin . Chinese Academy of Sciences. Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden ; China Fil: Gaire, Narayan P. . Nepal Academy of Science and Technology. Faculty of Science,; Nepal Fil: Ge, Quansheng. Chinese Academy of Sciences. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, ; China Fil: Gergis, Joëlle. University of Melbourne. School of Earth Sciences; Australia Fil: González-Rouco, J Fidel. Universidad Complutense de Madrid. Departamento Astrofísica y CC de la Atmósfera; España Fil: Goosse, Hugues. Université Catholique de Louvain. LemaitreCenter for Earth and Climate Research, Earth and Life Institute; Bélgica Fil: Grab, Stefan W. . University of the Witwatersrand. School of Geography,Archaeology and Environmental Studies; Sudáfrica Fil: Graham, Nicholas. Hydrologic Research Center; Estados Unidos Fil: Graham, Rochelle . Hydrologic Research Center; Estados Unidos Fil: Grosjean, Martin . University of Bern. Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research & Institute of Geography; Suiza Fil: Hanhijärvi, Sami T.. University of Helsinki. Department of Environmental Sciences; Finlandia Fil: Kaufman, Darrell S.. Northern Arizona University. School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability; Estados Unidos Fil: Kiefer, Thorsten . International Project Office, Past Global Changes (PAGES); Suiza Fil: Kimura, Katsuhiko. Fukushima University. Department of Symbiotic System Science; Japón Fil: Korhola, Atte A.. University of Helsinki. Department of Environmental Sciences; Finlandia Fil: Krusic, Paul J.. Stockholm University. Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology; Suecia Fil: Lara, Antonio. Universidad Austral de Chile. Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global; Chile. Universidad de Chile. Center for Climate and Resilience Research; Chile Fil: Lézine, Anne-Marie. Université Pierre et Marie Curie. Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN); Francia Fil: Ljungqvist, Fredrik C.. Stockholm University. Department of History, ; Suecia Fil: Lorrey, Andrew M.. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd., National Climate Centre Auckland; Nueva Zelanda Fil: Luterbacher, Jürg. Justus Liebig University. Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change; Alemania Fil: Masson-Delmotte, Valérie . Laboratoire des Science du Climat et de l’Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette; Francia Fil: McCarroll, Danny. Swansea University. Department of Geography; Reino Unido Fil: McConnell, Joseph R.. Nevada System of Higher Education. Desert Research Institute; Estados Unidos Fil: McKay, Nicholas P.. Northern Arizona University. School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability; Estados Unidos Fil: Morales, Mariano Santos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Científico Tecnológico Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina Fil: Moy, Andrew D.. Australian Antarctic Division; Australia. University of Tasmania. Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre; Australia Fil: Mulvaney, Robert. British Antarctic Survey; Reino Unido Fil: Mundo, Ignacio Alberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Científico Tecnológico Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina Fil: Nakatsuka, Takeshi. Nagoya University. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences; Japón Fil: Nash, David J.. University of the Witwatersrand. School of Geography,Archaeology and Environmental Studies; Sudáfrica. University of Brighton. School of Environment and Technology; Reino Unido Fil: Neukom, Raphael . Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL; Suiza Fil: Nicholson, Sharon E.. Florida State University. Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, ; Estados Unidos Fil: Oerter, Hans. Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association. Department of Glaciology; Alemania Fil: Palmer, Jonathan G.. University of Exeter. College of Life and Environmental Sciences; Reino Unido. University of New South Wales. Climate Change Research Centre; Australia Fil: Phipps, Steven J.. University of New South Wales. Climate Change Research Centre; Australia. University of New South Wales. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science; Australia Fil: Prieto, Maria del Rosario. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Científico Tecnológico Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina Fil: Rivera, Andres. Centro de Estudios Cientificos; Chile Fil: Sano, Masaki. Nagoya University. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences; Japón Fil: Severi, Mirko. University of Florence. Department of Chemistry ‘Ugo Schiff’; Italia Fil: Shanahan, Timothy M.. University of Texas at Austin. Jackson School of Geosciences; Estados Unidos Fil: Shao, Xuemei. Chinese Academy of Sciences. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research; China Fil: Shi, Feng. Chinese Academy of Sciences. LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, ; China Fil: Sigl, Michael . Nevada System of Higher Education. Desert Research Institute,; Estados Unidos Fil: Smerdon, Jason E.. Columbia University. Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory; Estados Unidos Fil: Solomina, Olga N. . Russian Academy of Sciences. Institute of Geography; Rusia Fil: Steig, Eric J.. University of Washington. Department of Earth and Space Sciences; Estados Unidos Fil: Stenni, Barbara. University of Trieste. Dipartimento di Matematica e Geoscienze; Italia Fil: Thamban, Meloth. National Centre for Antarctic and Ocean Research; India Fil: Trouet, Valerie. University of Arizona. Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research; Estados Unidos Fil: Turney, Chris S.M.. University of New South Wales. Climate Change Research Centre; Australia Fil: Umer, Mohammed. Addis Ababa University. School of Earth Sciences; Etiopía Fil: van Ommen, Tas. Australian Antarctic Division; Australia. University of Tasmania. Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre; Australia Fil: Verschuren, Dirk. Ghent University. Department of Biology; Bélgica Fil: Viau, Andre E.. University of Ottawa. Department of Geography; Canadá Fil: Villalba, Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Científico Tecnológico Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina Fil: Vinther, Bo M.. University of Copenhagen. Niels Bohr Institute; Dinamarca Fil: von Gunten, Lucien . Past Global Changes (PAGES). International Project Office, ; Suiza Fil: Wagner, Sebastian. Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht. Institute for Coastal Research; Alemania Fil: Wahl, Eugene R.. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. National Climatic Data Center; Estados Unidos Fil: Wanner, Heinz. University of Bern. Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research & Institute of Geography; Suiza Fil: Werner, Johannes P.. Justus Liebig University. Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change; Alemania Fil: White, James W.C.. University of Colorado. Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research; Estados Unidos Fil: Yasue, Koh. Shinshu University. Department of Forest Science; Japón Fil: Zorita, Eduardo. Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht. Institute for Coastal Research; Alemania

A lack of quantitative high resolution paleoclimate data from the Southern Hemisphere limits the ability to examine current trends within the context of long-term natural climate variability. This study presents a temperature reconstruction for southern Tasmania based on analyses of a sediment core from Duckhole Lake (43.365°S, 146.875°E). The relationship between non-destructive whole core scanning reflectance spectroscopy measurements in the visible spectrum (380–730 nm) and the instrumental temperature record (ad 1911–2000) was used to develop a calibration-in-time reflectance spectroscopy-based temperature model. Results showed that a trough in reflectance from 650 to 700 nm, which represents chlorophyll and its derivatives, was significantly correlated to annual mean temperature. A calibration model was developed ( R = 0.56, pauto < 0.05, root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) = 0.21°C, five-year filtered data, calibration period 1911–2000) and applied down-core to reconstruct annual mean temperatures in southern Tasmania over the last c. 950 years. This indicated that temperatures were initially cool c. ad 1050, but steadily increased until the late ad 1100s. After a brief cool period in the ad 1200s, temperatures again increased. Temperatures steadily decreased during the ad 1600s and remained relatively stable until the start of the 20th century when they rapidly decreased, before increasing from ad 1960s onwards. Comparisons with high resolution temperature records from western Tasmania, New Zealand and South America revealed some similarities, but also highlighted differences in temperature variability across the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. These are likely due to a combination of factors including the spatial variability in climate between and within regions, and differences between records that document seasonal (i.e. warm season/late summer) versus annual temperature variability. This highlights the need for further records from the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in order to constrain past natural spatial and seasonal/annual temperature variability in the region, and to accurately identify and attribute changes to natural variability and/or anthropogenic activities.

Throughout the last millennium, mankind was affected by prolonged deviations from the climate mean state. While periods like the Maunder Minimum in the 17th century have been assessed in greater detail, earlier cold periods such as the 15th century received much less attention due to the sparse information available. Based on new evidence from different sources ranging from proxy archives to model simulations, it is now possible to provide an end-to-end assessment about the climate state during an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century, the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping these extreme climatic conditions, and the impacts on and responses of the medieval society in Central Europe. Climate reconstructions from a multitude of natural and human archives indicate that, during winter, the period of the early Spörer Minimum (1431–1440 CE) was the coldest decade in Central Europe in the 15th century. The particularly cold winters and normal but wet summers resulted in a strong seasonal cycle that challenged food production and led to increasing food prices, a subsistence crisis, and a famine in parts of Europe. As a consequence, authorities implemented adaptation measures, such as the installation of grain storage capacities, in order to be prepared for future events. The 15th century is characterised by a grand solar minimum and enhanced volcanic activity, which both imply a reduction of seasonality. Climate model simulations show that periods with cold winters and strong seasonality are associated with internal climate variability rather than external forcing. Accordingly, it is hypothesised that the reconstructed extreme climatic conditions during this decade occurred by chance and in relation to the partly chaotic, internal variability within the climate system.

We present a multi-archive, multi-proxy summer temperature reconstruction for the European Alps covering the period AD 1053e1996 using tree-ring and lake sediment data. The new reconstruction is based on nine different calibration approaches and errors were estimated conservatively. Summer temperatures of the last millennium are characterised by two warm (AD 1053e1171 and 1823e1996) and two cold phases (AD 1172e1379 and 1573e1822). Highest pre-industrial summer temperatures of the 12th century were 0.3 � C warmer than the 20th century mean but 0.35 � C colder than proxy derived

Accurate projections of future climate changes in regions susceptible to drought depend on a good understanding of past climate changes and the processes driving them. In the absence of longer term instrumental data, paleoclimate data are needed. In this study we develop a precipitation reconstruction for Rebecca Lagoon (41°11′S, 144°41′E), northwest Tasmania. First, the relationship between scanning reflectance spectroscopy measurements of sediment cores in the visible spectrum (380–730 nm) and instrumental precipitation record (1912–2009) was used to develop a model to reconstruct precipitation back in time. Results showed that the ratio of reflectance between 660 and 670 nm (i.e., reflectance at 660 nm/reflectance at 670 nm; a measure of pigment diagenesis) was significantly related to annual precipitation. A calibration model was developed (R = − 0.56, pauto < 0.001, RMSEP = 43.0 mm yr− 1, 5 year triangular filtered data, calibration period 1912–2009). Second, this calibration-in-time model was used to reconstruct late Holocene precipitation changes over the last ~ 3000 years. This showed relatively dry conditions from ca. 3100–2800 cal yr BP, wet conditions from ca. 2800–2400 cal yr BP, dry conditions from ca. 2400–2000 calyr BP, and variable conditions after this. Relatively wet conditions occurred from ca. 500 cal yr BP to the late AD 1800 s (ca. 50 cal. yr BP). The precipitation reconstruction indicates that conditions were relatively dry for the 20th century compared to the last ~ 3000 years. In particular, the dry period measured in recent decades is one of the most intense in at least the last 500 years. As precipitation in this region is primarily driven by the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds, these changes are discussed in terms of shifts in westerly wind strength and/or position.

Determining if temperatures of the last century exceed natural variability necessitates the use of high-resolution paleo-reconstructions extending beyond the instrumental data (i.e. >150 years). Although syntheses using tree-ring, stalagmite, and borehole based reconstructions are available, biological proxies preserved in lake sediments have been neglected as a source of high-resolution information on climate change. Here, we present a decadal-scale mean July air temperature reconstruction covering the past millennium from varved Seebergsee, Switzerland. This reconstruction is compared to instrumental data at local, regional and European scales, to another high-resolution chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction from Lake Silvaplana (Switzerland), to a composite of paleo-climate reconstructions from the Greater Alpine Region and to various millennial scale climate reconstructions from the northern hemisphere. When compared to local and regional instrumental records since ca 1760 AD significant (p 0.5) are obtained, suggesting that chironomids accurately register the changes in temperature for the past ca 250 years. At European scale, the Seebergsee reconstruction correlates (rPearson = 0.40; p < 0.01) with instrumental and early instrumental data back to 1500 AD. On the millennial time scale, the chironomid reconstruction of Seebergsee provides a pattern of temperature changes mirrored by the chironomid reconstruction from Silvaplana (rPearson = 0.44; p < 0.01) and the Greater Alpine Region composite of reconstructions (rPearson = 0.40; p < 0.01). This includes warmer-than-the-last-century mean July air temperatures (+1.2 °C on average) during the end of the “Medieval Climate Anomaly” (MCA) and colder-than-the-last-century temperatures (−0.5 °C on average) during the “Little Ice Age”. Both chironomid reconstructions inferred a warming during the last decades, but this chironomid-inferred warming does not exceed the MCA temperatures. This result is not singular as many millennial temperature reconstructions in the northern Hemisphere do not show unprecedented warming of the last century at local/regional scale. However, the chironomid assemblages found in Seebergsee and Silvaplana since ca 1950 AD seem to be unique (i.e. they show unprecedented assemblage compositions) for the past 1000 years.

The present interglacial, the Holocene, spans the period of the last 11,700 years. It has sustained the growth and development of modern society. The millennial-scale decreasing solar insolation in the Northern Hemisphere summer lead to Northern Hemisphere cooling, a southern shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and a weakening of the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon systems. On the multidecadal to multicentury-scale, periods of more stable and warmer climate were interrupted by several cold relapses, at least in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical area. Based on carefully selected 10,000-year-long time series of temperature and humidity/precipitation, as well as reconstructions of glacier advances, the spatiotemporal pattern of six cold relapses during the last 10,000 years was analysed and presented in form of a Holocene Climate Atlas (HOCLAT; see http://www.oeschger.unibe.ch/research/projects/holocene_atlas/ ). A clear cyclicity was not found, and the spatiotemporal variability of temperature and humidity/precipitation during the six specific cold events (8200, 6300, 4700, 2700, 1550 and 550 years BP) was very high. Different dynamical processes such as meltwater flux into the North Atlantic, low solar activity, explosive volcanic eruptions, and fluctuations of the thermohaline circulation likely played a major role. In addition, internal dynamics in the North Atlantic and Pacific area (including their complex interaction) were likely involved.

The European Alps are very sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. Recent improvements in Alpine glacier length records and climate reconstructions from annually laminated sediments of Alpine Lake Silvaplana give the opportunity to investigate the relationship between these two data sets of Alpine climate. Two different time frames are considered: the last 500-1000 years as well as the last 7400 years. First, we found good agreement between the two different climate archives during the past millennium: mass accumulation rates and biogenic silica concentration are largely in phase with the glacier length changes of Mer de Glace and Unterer Grindelwaldgletscher, and with the records of glacier length of Grosser Aletschgletscher and Gornergletscher. Secondly, the records are compared with temporally highly resolved data of solar activity. The Sun has had a major impact on the Alpine climate variations in the long term, i.e. several centuries to millennia. Solar activity varies with the Hallstatt periodicity of about 2000 years. Hallstatt minima are identified around 500, 2500 and 5000 a. Around these times grand solar minima (such as the Maunder Minimum) occurred in clusters coinciding with colder Alpine climate expressed by glacier advances. During the Hallstatt maxima around 0, 2000 and 4500 a, the Alpine glaciers generally retreated, indicating a warmer climate. This is supported by archaeological findings at Schnidejoch, a transalpine pass in Switzerland that was only accessible when glaciers had retreated. On shorter timescales, however, the influence of the Sun cannot be as easily detected in Alpine climate change, indicating that in addition to solar forcing, volcanic influence and internal climate variations have played an important role. Copyright # 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Annually resolved June–July–August (JJA) temperatures from ca. 570 BC to AD 120 (±100 a; approximately 690 varve years) were quantified from biogenic silica and chironomids (Type II regression; Standard Major Axis calibration-in-time) preserved in the varved sediments of Lake Silvaplana, Switzerland. Using 30 a (climatology) moving averages and detrended standard deviations (mean–variability change, MVC), moving linear trends, change points and wavelets, reconstructed temperatures were partitioned into a warmer (+0.3°C; ca. 570–351 BC), cooler (−0.2°C; ca. 350–16 BC) and moderate period (+0.1°C; ca. 15 BC to AD 120) relative to the reconstruction average (10.9°C; reference AD 1950–2000 = 9.8°C). Warm and variable JJA temperatures at the Late Iron Age–Roman Period transition (approximately 50 BC to AD 100 in this region) and a cold anomaly around 470 BC (Early–Late Iron Age) were inferred. Inter-annual and decadal temperature variability was greater from ca. 570 BC to AD 120 than the last millennium, whereas multi-decadal and lower-frequency temperature variability were comparable, as evident in wavelet plots. Using MVC plots of reconstructed JJA temperatures from ca. 570 BC to AD 120, we verified current trends and European climate model outputs for the 21st century, which suggest increased inter-annual summer temperature variability and extremes in a generally warmer climate (heteroscedasticity; hotspot of variability). We compared these results to MVC plots of instrumental and reconstructed temperatures (from the same sediment core and proxies but a different study) from AD 1177 to AD 2000. Our reconstructed JJA temperatures from ca. 570 BC to AD 120 showed that inter-annual JJA temperature variability increased rapidly above a threshold of ∼10°C mean JJA temperature. This increase accelerated with continued warming up to >11.5°C. We suggest that the Roman Period serves with respect to inter-annual variability as an analogue for warmer 21st-century JJA temperatures in the Alps. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Calibration-in-space (i.e. modern taxonomic assemblages of biota from many lakes located along a wide temperature gradient calibrated against meteorological data) is generally used to derive species-specific optima and tolerances. This results in transfer functions which then are applied to subfossil assemblages to quantitatively reconstruct environmental variables such as air/water temperature. Developing such transfer functions is time- and money-consuming, thus many biota-inferred temperature records are either based on transfer functions from other regions which might not take into account local characteristics or are only used qualitatively. In varved Lake Silvaplana (Engadine, Switzerland), another way of obtaining quantitative climate reconstructions from taxonomical assemblages preserved in lake sediments was assessed for the past 1000 years. A calibration-in-time (i.e. taxonomic-assemblage-of-biota time series calibrated against meteorological data covering the same time period) was developed for chironomids (non-biting midges) using a weighted-average-partial-least-square (WAPLS) model and compared with a calibration-in-space model. The calibration-in-time had a weaker correlation coefficient (r2 = 0.71) than the calibration-in-space (r2 = 0.86), but the error of prediction (RMSEP = 0.58 °C) and the maximum bias (Max Bias = 0.73 °C) outperformed the statistics of the calibration-in-space (RMSEP = 1.5 °C; Max Bias = 1.72). This result is probably due to the smaller temperature gradient of the calibration-in-time (6.5 °C) than the calibration-in-space (11.5 °C). For the last 150 years, the Pearson correlation coefficient was significant between the two reconstructions (rPearson = 0.52; p

High-resolution quantitative temperature records are needed for placing the recent warming into the context of long-term natural climate variability. In this study we present a quantitative high-resolution (9-year) summer (June–August) temperature reconstruction back to AD 1177 for the south-eastern Swiss Alps. This region is a good predictor for summer temperatures in large parts of western and central Europe. Our reconstruction is based on a combination of the high-frequency component of annually resolved biogenic silica (bSi flux) data and the low-frequency component of decadal chironomid-inferred temperatures from annually laminated well dated sediments (varves) from proglacial Lake Silvaplana, eastern Swiss Alps. For the calibration (period AD 1760–1949) we assess systematically the effects of six different regression methods (Type I regressions: Inverse Regression IR, Inverse Prediction IP, Generalised Least Squares GLS; Type II regressions: Major Axis MA, Ranged Major Axis RMA and Standard Major Axis SMA) with regard to the predicted amplitude and the calibration statistics such as root-mean-square error of prediction (RMSEP), reduction of error (RE) and coefficient of efficiency (CE). We found a trade-off in the regression model choice between a good representation of the amplitude and good calibration statistics. The band-pass filtered bSi flux record is in close agreement both in the structure and the amplitude with two fully independent reconstructions spanning back to AD 1500 and AD 1177, respectively. All known pulses of negative volcanic forcing are represented as cold anomalies in the bSi flux record. Volcanic pulses combined with low solar activity (Sporer and Maunder Minimum) are seen as particularly cold episodes around AD 1460 and AD 1690. The combined chironomid and bSi flux temperature record (RMSEP = 0.57 °C) is in good agreement with the glacier history of the Alps. The warmest (AD 1190) and coldest decades (17th century; 1680–1700) of our reconstruction coincide with the largest anomalies in the Alpine tree-ring based reconstruction; both records show in the decadal variability an amplitude of 2.8 °C between AD 1180 and 1950, which is substantially higher than the amplitude of hemispheric reconstructions. Our record suggests that the current decade is slightly warmer than the warmest decade in the pre-industrial time of the past 800 years.

Fossil chironomids (non-biting midges) from varved Lake Silvaplana, Switzerland, were used to reconstruct climate (mean July air temperatures) during the last millennium. At the beginning of the record, corresponding to the last part of the “Medieval Climate Anomaly” (MCA) (here the period between ca 1032 and 1262 AD), the chironomid-inferred mean July air temperatures were 1 °C warmer (p

We statistically reconstruct austral summer (winter) surface air temperature fields back to ad 900 (1706) using 22 (20) annually resolved predictors from natural and human archives from southern South America (SSA). This represents the first regional-scale climate field reconstruction for parts of the Southern Hemisphere at this high temporal resolution. We apply three different reconstruction techniques: multivariate principal component regression, composite plus scaling, and regularized expectation maximization. There is generally good agreement between the results of the three methods on interannual and decadal timescales. The field reconstructions allow us to describe differences and similarities in the temperature evolution of different sub-regions of SSA. The reconstructed SSA mean summer temperatures between 900 and 1350 are mostly above the 1901-1995 climatology. After 1350, we reconstruct a sharp transition to colder conditions, which last until approximately 1700. The summers in the eighteenth century are relatively warm with a subsequent cold relapse peaking around 1850. In the twentieth century, summer temperatures reach conditions similar to earlier warm periods. The winter temperatures in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries were mostly below the twentieth century average. The uncertainties of our reconstructions are generally largest in the eastern lowlands of SSA, where the coverage with proxy data is poorest. Verifications with independent summer temperature proxies and instrumental measurements suggest that the interannual and multi-decadal variations of SSA temperatures are well captured by our reconstructions. This new dataset can be used for data/model comparison and data assimilation as well as for detection and attribution studies at sub-continental scales

High-resolution, multi-proxy climate reconstructions with a representative spatial coverage over the globe are arguably among the most important tools for the assessment of the responses of the Earth climate to natural and anthropogenic forcing. Whereas hemispheric or regional multi-proxy reconstructions for the past 500–1000 years are available for Europe and North America, the Southern Hemisphere including South America has remained largely terra incognita. In this special issue we present a comprehensive review of previously published and new data sets from a variety of paleoclimate archives across southern South America (south of ca. 15°S). The underlying collaborative research initiative started in 2006 under the umbrella of IGBP-PAGES Focus 2 “Regional Climate Dynamics” and aimed to (i) collate the large number of disperse paleoclimate data sets from various proxies for the last ca. 1000 years, and (ii) produce a spatially explicit, highly resolved, multi-proxy climate reconstruction for southern South America. The review and research articles in this special issue cover a variety of archives (historical documents, tree rings, ice cores, glacier fluctuations and lacustrine sediments) and suggest that, at least south of ca. 18°S, the spatial and temporal coverage of the data is adequate to develop synoptic multi-proxy reconstructions for the past ca. 400 years. Although additional high-quality proxy records are still needed to resolve the finer temporal and spatial structure of past climate variations, the currently available data do provide a consistent picture of climate fluctuations at a large scale. We have identified two major directions for future research: (i) a dedicated effort to build a comprehensive, quality-tested, and homogenized set of climate data during the (early) instrumental period in order to calibrate proxy data series, to test and extend reanalysis data sets, and to explore the multi-decadal variability of synoptic-scale atmospheric features, and (ii) expansion of the database of robust well-calibrated paleoclimate data series of adequate quality, temporal resolution and spatial representation; currently, this is the bottleneck for further improvements of the reconstructions. Existing older data sets should be updated to include the most recent years. While well-calibrated tree-ring archives and documentary data have restrictions in terms of spatial coverage and/or the length of the data series, calibration and quantification of proxy series from ice cores, glacier fluctuations, lake sediments and vegetation records are of utmost concern and require greatest attention.

A glacier–climate model was used to calculate climatic conditions in a test site on the east Andean slope around Cochabamba (17°S, Bolivia) for the time of the maximum Late Pleistocene glaciation. Results suggest a massive temperature reduction of about − 6.4 °C (+ 1.4/− 1.3 °C), combined with annual precipitation rates of about 1100 mm (+ 570 mm/− 280 mm). This implies no major change in annual precipitation compared with today. Summer precipitation was the source for the humidity in the past, as is the case today. This climate scenario argues for a maximum advance of the paleo-glaciers in the eastern cordillera during the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 20 ka BP), which is confirmed by exposure age dates. In a synthesized view over the central Andes, the results point to an increased summer precipitation-driven Late Glacial (15–10 ka BP) maximum advance in the western part of the Altiplano (18°S–23°S), a temperature-driven maximum advance during full glacial times (LGM) in the eastern cordillera, and a pre- and post-LGM (32 ka BP/14 ka BP) maximum advance around 30°S related to increased precipitation and reduced temperature on the western slope of the Andes. The results indicate the importance of understanding the seasonality and details of the mass balance–climate interaction in order to disentangle drivers for the observed regionally asynchronous past glaciations in the central Andes.

We found a significant positive correlation between local summer air temperature (May-September) and the annual sediment mass accumulation rate (MAR) in Lake Silvaplana (46°N, 9°E, 1800 m a.s.l.) during the twentieth century (r = 0.69, p < 0.001 for decadal smoothed series). Sediment trap data (2001-2005) confirm this relation with exceptionally high particle yields during the hottest summer of the last 140 years in 2003. On this base we developed a decadal-scale summer temperature reconstruction back to AD 1580. Surprisingly, the comparison of our reconstruction with two other independent regional summer temperature reconstructions (based on tree-rings and documentary data) revealed a significant negative correlation for the pre-1900 data (ie, late ‘Little Ice Age’). This demonstrates that the correlation between MAR and summer temperature is not stable in time and the actualistic principle does not apply in this case. We suggest that different climatic regimes (modern/‘Little Ice Age’) lead to changing state conditions in the catchment and thus to considerably different sediment transport mechanisms. Therefore, we calibrated our MAR data with gridded early instrumental temperature series from AD 1760-1880 (r = -0.48, p < 0.01 for decadal smoothed series) to properly reconstruct the late LIA climatic conditions. We found exceptionally low temperatures between AD 1580 and 1610 (0.75°C below twentieth-century mean) and during the late Maunder Minimum from AD 1680 to 1710 (0.5°C below twentieth-century mean). In general, summer temperatures did not experience major negative departures from the twentieth-century mean during the late ‘Little Ice Age’. This compares well with the two existing independent regional reconstructions suggesting that the LIA in the Alps was mainly a phenomenon of the cold season.

The recent warming of the global climate is well recognized. However, does a warmer climate also mean a moister climate? Does dry get drier and wet get wetter? There are important questions as they relate to changes in the water cycle and impacts the water resources as well as the frequency and intensity of storms and floods in the near future. In Europe, regional climate models do not show consistent and robust results for future hydroclimatic changes and how extreme events will evolve in response to future climate change. Paleo-hydroclimatic data from natural archives are one of the few means to assess such changes in the longer context. Here, we present an annually-resolved record of warm season (MJJA) precipitation and summer flood frequency from the varved (annually laminated) sediments of proglacial Lake Oeschinen (46°30′N–7°44′E, 1580 m, NW Swiss Alps) back to AD 884. These data sets are inferred from the thickness of annual sediment deposits and the occurrence of flood event layers in the sediments. The chronology of the sediment record is based on multiple varve counts and validated with historical floods chronicled in written documents (back to the 14th century) and 14C AMS dates. The precipitation record shows pronounced interannual to centennial variability with humid warm season phases between AD 920–950, AD 1100–1180, AD 1300–1400, AD 1590–1650, AD 1700–1790, AD 1820–1880, and AD 1960–2008. Driest conditions are reconstructed for AD 960–1080, AD 1250–1300 and for AD 1880–1900. Our precipitation record is consistent with the few multi-centennial warm-season precipitation records available for Europe. We did not find a persistent relationship between warm-season precipitation and temperature. In contrast, results show that the relation between precipitation and temperature has oscillated between positive correlations (warmer gets wetter, cooler gets drier) and negative correlations (warmer gets drier, cooler gets wetter) with a highly significant (χ2 = 99%) multidecadal (60–70 yrs) periodicity over the last millennium. Possible explanations for this phenomenon are changes in the weather type statistics or the within-weather-type variability, which influence the combinations between precipitation and temperature over continental central Europe and operate at multidecadal scales. Such multidecadal effects might also be important for precipitation scenarios in the Alpine area under future warming. Our record of flood frequency suggests more frequent floods under cool and humid climate during the warm seasons. This picture is consistent with other studies from small and medium size catchments at mid- and high elevations in the Alpine area. However, the 13th century reveals a period with high flood frequency during warm and moderately dry (average precipitation) conditions. This anomalous situation is currently not understood; nonetheless, this is also one out of several possible scenarios for the future. From the different combinations found in our record, we conclude that the relation between floods, precipitation and temperature and, in consequence, future projections remain poorly constrained.

The question whether the mid-Holocene climate (between ca. 9 and 4 cal kyr B.P.) in the Atacama Desert and the Central Andes in general was humid or dry has wide implications with regard to the understanding of long-term climate variability in South America. Paleosols, regional groundwater tables, abiotic proxy data and pollen of aquatic plants in lake sediments show a marked and rapid shift from very humid late-glacial/early Holocene climatic conditions (between ca. 14 and 9.5 kyr B.P.) to extremely dry mid-Holocene conditions (more arid than today between ca. 9 and 4 kyr B.P.). An exception during this hyperarid period is a century-scale more humid interval around ca. 5.5–6 kyr B.P. that appears systematically in lake sediment archives. In contrast, pollen for most terrestrial plants preserved in lake sediments do not show major changes during the Holocene, whereas more humid mid-Holocene conditions (compared with late Holocene conditions) were inferred from plant macrofossils in rodent middens. Is the reason for this disagreement to be attributed to misinterpretation of the paleoenvironments or of the proxy records themselves, or to incomplete paleoclimatic interpretation of the paleoenvironments? We argue that these different paleoclimate archives record different aspects and facets of ‘climate’. While paleosols and groundwater in the Atacama Desert record low-frequency climate variability at century to millennium scales, lake sediments on the Altiplano record decade- to century-scale variability. Terrestrial vegetation responds to shorter high-frequency climate variability at seasonal to inter-annual scales and preferably to humid years. Vegetation remains in ‘hibernation’ or does not germinate during arid years. Thus information from these three types of archives is not a priori comparable and requires careful site-specific, archive-specific and time-scale-specific evaluation. What is natural in modern climatology is also true for paleoclimatology: a comprehensive assessment must account for the complex daily and seasonal cycles, for the range of climate variability and trends at different scales in space and time, for impacts of short-term extreme events, and for specific, often non-linear responses of individual bio-geo-physical archives to any of the numerous aspects of ‘climate’.

A climate glacier model is used to interpret late Pleistocene maximum glaciations in the NW-Argentinan Andes (22°S). According to the model, massive cooling combined with a moderate precipitation increase is necessary to explain maximum glacier extension. Even given a factor of 2–4 precipitation increase, the model indicates that temperatures must have been lowered by 4.5–8°C, suggesting that maximum glaciation probably occurred during full glacial times of MIS 2 (25–18 ka). This conclusion is supported by dated proglacial lake sediments and evidence of past glacial geometry. The extremely long tongues and low accumulation area ratios indicate that ablation was reduced during cold periods in agreement with the model. A strong relationship exists between glacier geometry and prevailing climate. Contrary to the precipitation-controlled Late Glacial (12–10 ka) maximum glaciation of the arid Central Andes in southern Peru and northern Chile, the glaciations on the much more humid eastern Andean slope are mainly controlled by temperature and therefore reached their maximum extent during the MIS 2 cold conditions.

An empirical-statistical climate-glacier model is used to reconstruct Late Pleistocene climate conditions in the south-central Andes of northern Chile (29–30° S). The model was tested using modern climate data and the results compare favorably with key glaciological features presentlyobserved in this area. Using several glaciers at 29° S as casestudies, the results suggest an increase in annual precipitation(Δ P = 580 ± 150 mm, today 400 mm), and a reduction inannual mean temperature (Δ T = −5.7 ± 0.7 ° C).These data suggest full glacial LGM (Last Glacial Maximum) conditionsfor the maximum glacier advances at 29° S, a scenario that is asynchronous with the timing of maximum advances north of the Arid Diagonal (18–24° S) where late-glacial climate was moderately cold but very humid.The reconstructed case study glaciers at 29° S do not allow conclusions to be drawn about the seasonality of precipitation. However, comparison with regional paleodata suggests intensified westerly winter precipitation and a stable position for the northern boundary of the westerlies at ∼ 27° S. However, the meridional precipitation gradients were much steeper than today while the core area of the Arid Diagonal remained fixed between 25–27° S.

A climate–glacier model was used to reconstruct Late-glacial climate conditions from two case-study glaciers at 18° and 22° S in the arid (sub)tropical western Andes of northern Chile. The model uses (i) the geometry of the Late-glacial maximum glaciation, (ii) modern diurnal and annual cycles, amplitudes and lapse rates of the climate, (iii) empirical–statistical sublimation, melt and accumulation models developed for this area, and (iv) dynamic ice flow through two known cross-sections for steady-state conditions. The model is validated with modern conditions and compares favorably with the glaciological features of today. The mass-balance model calculates the modern equilibrium-line altitude at 18° S as high as 5850 m (field data 5800 m), whereas no glaciers exist in the fully arid southern area at 22° S despite altitudes above 6000 m and continuous permafrost. For Late-glacial times, the model results suggest a substantial increase in tropical summer precipitation (ΔP = +840 (− 50/+ 10) mm a−1 for the northern test area; +1000 (− 10/+ 30) mm a−1 for the southern test area) and a moderate temperature depression (ΔT = −4.4 (− 0.1/+ 0.2) °C at 18° S; −3.2 (±0.1) °C at 22° S). Extratropical frontal winter precipitation (June–September) was

Late Quaternary humidity changes resulted in substantial modifications of the land surface characteristics in the Altiplano of the Atacama Desert, central Andes. Reconstructions of surface albedo, top-of-atmosphere (TOA) albedo, and short-wave net radiation in the Andes of northern Chile for 20, 14, 10, 7 and 0 ka suggest that surface and TOA albedo increased substantially during periods of relatively humid environmental conditions (i.e., with large palaeolakes, glaciers and dense vegetation). The decrease of summer shortwave net radiation and seasonality during the late-glacial/early Holocene humid phase (14 to 10 ka) due to Earth’s surface and atmospheric characteristics added to the effect of orbitally driven negative deviations of Southern Hemisphere austral summer insolation and minimum seasonality at 20 °S. Therefore, in situ radiative forcing is, in contrast to the Northern Hemisphere tropics, not a suitable explanation for enhanced convective precipitation and, ultimately, humid climatic conditions. Our results suggest that late Quaternary humidity changes on the Altiplano reflect a collective response to (1) environmental changes in the source area of the moisture (e.g., re-expansion of the rain forest and increased release of latent heat over Amazonia and the Chaco, warm sea surface temperatures in the E Pacific) and, (2) large-scale circulation patterns and wave structures in the upper troposphere (strength and position of the Bolivian High, divergent flow stimulating convection over the Altiplano), or that they even reflect a response to (3) interhemispherical teleconnections.

Radiocarbon dates and relative ages of soils on moraines provide evidence of a substantial late-Holocene (

High-resolution records of calibrated proxy data for the past 2000 yr are fundamental to place current changes into the context of pre-industrial natural forced and unforced variability. Although the need for regional spatially explicit comprehensive reconstructions is widely recognized, the proxy data sources are still scarce, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere and South America. We provide a 1500 yr long warm season temperature record from varved Lago Plomo, a proglacial lake of the Northern Patagonian Ice field in southern Chile (46°59' S, 72°52' W, 203 m). The thickness of the bright summer sediment layer relative to the dark winter layer (measured as total brightness; % reflectance 400–730 nm) is calibrated against warm season SONDJF temperature (1900–2009; r = 0.58, p(aut) = 0.056, RE = 0.52; CE = 0.15, RMSEP = 0.28 °C; five-year triangular filtered data). In Lago Plomo, warm summer temperatures lead to enhanced glacier melt and suspended sediment transport, which results in a thicker light summer layer and to brighter sediments (% total brightness). Although Patagonia shows pronounced regional differences in decadal temperature trends and variability, the 1500 yr temperature reconstruction from Lago Plomo compares favourably with other regional/continental temperature records but also emphasizes significant regional differences for which no data and information existed so far. The reconstruction shows pronounced sub-decadal–multi-decadal variability with cold phases in the 5th, 7th and 9th centuries, during parts of the Little Ice Age chronozone (16th and 18th centuries) and in the beginning of the 20th century. The most prominent warm phase is the 19th century which is as warm as the second half of the 20th century, emphasizing a delayed recent global warming in the Southern Hemisphere. The comparison between winter precipitation and summer temperature (inter-seasonal coupling) from Lago Plomo reveals alternating phases with parallel and contrasting decadal trends of winter precipitation and summer temperature and positive and negative running correlations(winterPP;summerTT). In the 20th century the trend of this correlation changes at 1920, 1945 and 1975 AD, and the phases with positive (negative) correlations inferred from the lake sediments are also found as a regional robust pattern in reanalysis data, and coincide with the changes of the instrumental PDO index. Enhanced circumpolar flow around 60° S is proposed for positive phases of PDO which leads to the reversed coupling and contrasting decadal trends of winter precipitation and summer temperature during PDO positive phases. Our reconstruction of the inter-seasonal coupling back to 1530 AD reproduces many features of existing PDO reconstructions from the Pacific suggesting that Lago Plomo provides a record for the regional expression of the PDO in Patagonia.

High-resolution climate reconstructions from a range of natural archives across the world are fundamental to place current climate change into perspective. Paleoclimate records for the Southern Hemisphere are scarce and only a few quantitative high-resolution reconstructions exist for the past millennium. We present a record of annually laminated sediments of Lago Plomo (46°59′S, 72°52′W,203 m a.s.l.) located east of the Northern Patagonian Ice Field (NPI). Radiometric dating (210Pb, 137Cs, 14C AMS) is consistent with counts of millimetre-scale laminae, confirming the annual nature of the laminae couplets with a light summer and a dark winter layer. The varves were analyzed for thickness, mass accumulation rate (MAR), scanning x-ray fluorescence (XRF) and scanning reflectance spectroscopy in the visible range (VIS-RS). MAR data were calibrated against austral winter (JJA) precipitation data (CRU TS 3.0) for the period ad 1930–2002 ( r = 0.67, p(aut) < 0.05). Using a linear inverse regression model we reconstructed winter precipitation for Lago Plomo back to ad 1530. The root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) is small (13.3 mm/month; 12% of the average precipitation) compared with the pronounced decadal and multidecadal variability, suggesting that most of the reconstructed variability is significant. Wetter phases (reference ad 1930–2002) were observed around ad 1600, ad 1630–1690 and ad 1780–1850, and a prolonged drier period ad 1690–1780 with a multidecadal minimum centered on ad 1770. The spatial correlation for South America suggests that the JJA precipitation record from Lago Plomo is representative for large areas in the southwest between c. 41°S and 51°S.

article i nfo Article history: The relationship between summer-autumn floods in Central Europe and climate warming is poorly con- strained by available instrumental, historical, proxy and model data. To investigate this relationship, a complete record of paleofloods, regional glacier length changes (and associated climate phases) and regional glacier advances and retreats (and associated climate transitions) are derived from the varved sediments of Lake Silva- plana(ca.1450BC-AD420;UpperEngadine,Switzerland).Incombination,theserecordsprovideinsightintothe behavior of floods (i.e. frequency) under a wide range of climate conditions. Eighty-five paleofloods are identified from turbidites in the sediments of Lake Silvaplana. Regional glacier length changes (and associated cool and/or wet and warm and/or dry climate phases) are inferred from centennial anomalies in the square root of low-pass (LP) filtered Mass Accumulation Rates (MARLP

[1] We present the first spatially and temporally highly resolved gridded reconstruction of multi-centennial precipitation variability for southern South America (SSA). A novel reconstruction approach of deriving 10,000 ensemble members based on varying predictor networks and methodological settings allows the identification of spatiotemporal changes in SSA precipitation and associated uncertainties. The summer and winter reconstructions back to AD 1498 and AD 1590, respectively, provide new evidence for multi-centennial increase in summer precipitation and an opposing decrease in winter precipitation into the 20th century. The drying in winter is significant over large parts of SSA, whereas the patterns for summer, possibly representing convective rainfall, have displayed high spatial variability. The fact that such long-term seasonal and spatial changes have occurred in the past, underlines the complex form that hydroclimatic variability might have in the future. This emphasizes the need for careful adaptation strategies as governments become attuned to the realities of climate change.

[1] We evaluate variability, trends, uncertainties, and change of extremes of reconstructed and observed European spring and autumn temperature back to 1500. Spring and autumn temperature experienced systematic century-scale cooling compared to present conditions. The coldest springs appeared during the Maunder Minimum (ΔT = −1 K wrt 1901–2000). The amplitude of spring temperature variations at decadal and multidecadal scales doubles that of autumn and is most expressed in northeastern Europe. The decade 1995–2004 was very likely the warmest of the last half millennium. Anomalously warm springs and autumns have generally become more extreme in recent decades. However, the recent changes are statistically not significant with respect to the pre-industrial period.

Multiproxy reconstructions of monthly and seasonal surface temperature fields for Europe back to 1500 show that the late 20th- and early 21st-century European climate is very likely (95% confidence level) warmer than that of any time during the past 500 years. This agrees with findings for the entire Northern Hemisphere. European winter average temperatures during the period 1500 to 1900 were reduced by approximately 0.5 degrees C (0.25 degrees C for annual mean temperatures) compared to the 20th century. Summer temperatures did not experience systematic century-scale cooling relative to present conditions. The coldest European winter was 1708/1709; 2003 was by far the hottest summer.

Sublimation and melt disturb the environmental information obtained from ice core records in the Andes. In two case studies we demonstrate to what extent these post-depositional processes may remove major parts of the accumulated snow cover. Dark ash layers from the Tungurahua eruption changed the albedo of surface snow on Chimborazo glacier (6268 m, 1°30′S, 78°36′W, Ecuador) between two ice core drilling campaigns and forced substantial melt. Redistribution and washout of the chemical constituents shifted the concentration profiles obtained in December 1999 as compared to an equivalent core drilled in December 2000. The stable isotope records showed that approximately the water equivalent (weq) of an annual layer had melted, and that the percolating melt water penetrated within the firn layer to a depth of at least 16.5 m without refreezing. In the second example, from a site on the dry axis between the tropical and extra-tropical precipitation belts, significant loss of accumulated snow layers occurred by sublimation. A surface experiment at Cerro Tapado glacier (5536 m, 30°08′ S, 69° 55′ W, Chile) revealed that losses of ≈42 mm weq (≈5 mm snow) per day occurred during the dry period following the 1997/98 El Nino. This loss generally included the entire surface layer enriched in stable isotopes, and thus caused minimal disturbance of the isotopic signature (and hence climatic information) of the net accumulation, yet chemical constituents again experienced considerable changes in concentration. From annual layer counting and direct dating it is obvious that the major part of the accumulated ice on both glaciers is younger than 100 years; however, isotopic and chemical variations at least in the basal ice from Cerro Tapado clearly point to climate conditions different from the recent centuries. This evidence is supported by mass balance considerations derived from a glacier-climate model. The possibility of a third type of disturbance aside from sublimation and melting — in this case a significant hiatus in the environmental chronology — also deserves consideration for other ice core records from this region. Potential disruptions or discontinuities need to be carefully evaluated given the profound changes in climatic and glaciological conditions since the Last Glacial Maximum throughout Holocene times.

We revise substantially the regional chronology of lake-level fluctuations from the late-glacial/early Holocene humid phase along a high altitude transect (3500 to 4500 m) between 18°S and 28°S in the Southwestern Altiplano of Northern Chile. Radiocarbon dates and210Pb profiles for limnic and terrestrial materials allow us to estimate and justify reservoir correction values for conventional14C dates. Our chronology suggests that the latest Pleistocene/early Holocene humid phase started between 13,000 and 12,00014C yr B.P., and that maximum lake levels were reached between 10,800 and 920014C yr B.P. This is significantly younger than what has been established so far for the Titicaca–Uyuni Basin in Bolivia. The paleolakes disappeared sometime between 8400 and 800014C yr B.P. Our revised chronology agrees with the regional history of human occupation, and is broadly synchronous with vegetation changes in subtropical continental South America, and with the onset of wetland expansion in the northern hemisphere tropics.

Sedimentological, mineralogical and geochemical analyses of sediment cores from 9 m-deep, saline Laguna Miscanti, Chile (23 ° 44′S, 67 °46′W, 4140 m a.s.l.) together with high-resolution seismic profiles provide a mid to late Holocene time series of regional environmental change in the Atacama Altiplano constrained by 210Pb and conventional 14C dating. The mid Holocene was the most arid interval since the last glacial maximum, as documented by subaerial exposure and formation of hardgrounds on a playa surface. Extremely low lake levels during the mid Holocene appear consistent with lower effective moisture recorded at other sites along the Altiplano and in the Amazon Basin. Termination of this arid period represented a major shift in the regional environmental dynamics and inaugurated modern atmospheric conditions. The cores show a progressive upward increase in effective moisture interrupted by numerous century-scale drier periods of various intensities and durations that characterize a fluctuating late Holocene climate. In spite of chronological uncertainties, the major environmental changes seem to correlate with the available paleorecords from the region providing a coherent account of effective moisture variability in the tropical highlands of South America.